Malaria transmission potential could be reduced with current and future climate change

Scientific Reports

Volumn 6, Issue , 2016, Pages

  Murdock, C C ^a,b   Sternberg, E D ^b   Thomas, M B ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA   (United States)

^b PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; ANIMAL; ANOPHELES; ASIA; CLIMATE CHANGE; GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT AND AGING; HUMAN; INSECT VECTOR; MALARIA, FALCIPARUM; PARASITOLOGY; PATHOGENICITY; PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; TEMPERATURE; TRANSMISSION;

AFRICA; ANIMALS; ANOPHELES; ASIA; CLIMATE CHANGE; HUMANS; INSECT VECTORS; MALARIA, FALCIPARUM; PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 84975807253     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20452322     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/srep27771     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Parham, P. E. et al. Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission. Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B. 370, 1-17, doi: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0551 (2015).
2. Mordecai, E. A. et al. Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecol. Lett. 16, 22-30, doi: 10.1111/ele.12015 (2013).
3. Siraj, A. S. et al. Altitudinal changes in malaria incidence in highlands of Ethiopia and Colombia. Science 343, 1154-1158, doi: 10.1126/science.1244325 (2014).
4. Pascual, M., Ahumada, J. A., Chaves, L. F., Rodó, X. & Bouma, M. Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 5829-5834, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0508929103 (2006).
5. Paaijmans, K. P., Read, A. F. & Thomas, M. B. Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 106, 13844-13849, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0903423106 (2009).
6. Paaijmans, K. P. et al. Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 107, 15135-15139, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1006422107 (2010).
7. Paaijmans, K. P. et al. Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission. Clim. Change 125, 479-488 (2014).
8. Pachauri, R. K. et al. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 151 (2014).
9. Caminade, C. et al. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3286-3291 (2014).
10. Paaijmans, K. P. & Thomas, M. B. The influence of mosquito resting behaviour and associated microclimate for malaria risk. Malar. J. 10, 183, doi: 183 10.1186/1475-2875-10-183 (2011).
11. Cator, L. J. et al. Characterizing microclimate in urban malaria transmission settings: a case study from Chennai, India. Malar. J. 12, 1-10, doi: 84 10.1186/1475-2875-12-84 (2013).
12. Murdock, C. C., Moller-Jacobs, L. L. & Thomas, M. B. Complex environmental drivers of immunity and resistance in malaria mosquitoes. P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol Sci. 280, doi: 10.1098/rspb.2013.2030 (2013).
13. Ferguson, H. M. & Read, A. F. Why is the effect of malaria parasites on mosquito survival still unresolved? Trends Parasitol. 18, 256-261, doi: 10.1016/s1471-4922(02)02281-x (2002).
14. Vezilier, J., Nicot, A., Gandon, S. & Rivero, A. Plasmodium infection decreases fecundity and increases survival of mosquitoes. P. Roy. Soc. B-Biol Sci. 279, 4033-4041 (2012).
15. von Seidlein, L. et al. Airflow attenuation and bed net utilization: observations from Africa and Asia. Malar. J. 11, doi: 200 10.1186/1475-2875-11-200 (2012).
16. Dev, V. & Sharma, V. P. Anopheles mosquitoes-New insights into new malaria vectors (ed. Manguin, S.) Ch. 9, 239-271 (2013).
17. Paaijmans, K. P., Imbahale, S. S., Thomas, M. B. & Takken, W. Relevant microclimate for determining the development rate of malaria mosquitoes and possible impliations of climate change. Malar. J. 9, 196 (2010).
18. Paaijmans, K. P. et al. Temperature variation makes ectotherms more sensitive to climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 19, 2373-2380 (2013).
19. Christiansen-Jucht, C., Parham, P., Saddler, A., Koella, J. & Basanez, M.-G. Temperature during larval development and adult maintenance influences the survival of Anopheles gambiae s.s. Parasit. Vectors 7, 489 (2014).
20. Moller-Jacobs, L., Murdock, C. & Thomas, M. Capacity of mosquitoes to transmit malaria depends on larval environment. Parasit. Vectors 7, 593 (2014).
21. Sternberg, E. D. & Thomas, M. B. Local adaptation to temperature and the implications for vector-borne diseases. Trends Parasitol. 30, 115-122, doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2013.12.010 (2014).
22. Blanford, S., Read, A. F. & Thomas, M. B. Thermal behaviour of Anopheles stephensi in response to infection with malaria and fungal entomopathogens. Malar. J. 8, 1-9 (2009).
23. Kirby, M. J. & Lindsay, S. W. Responses of adult mosquitoes of two sibling species, Anopheles arabiensis and A. gambiae s.s. (Diptera: Culicidae), to high temperatures. Bull. Entomol. Res. 94, 441-448 (2004).
24. Upadhyayula, S. M., Mutheneni, S. R., Chenna, S., Parasaram, V. & Kadiri, M. R. Climate drivers on malaria transmission in Arunachal Pradesh, India. PLoS ONE 10, e0119514 (2015).
25. MacLeod, D. A., Jones, A., Di Giuseppe, F., Caminade, C. & Morse, A. P. Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 044005 (2015).
26. Couret, J. & Benedict, M. A meta-Analysis of the factors influencing development rate variation in Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). BMC Ecol. 14, 3 (2014).
27. Couret, J. Meta-Analysis of factors affecting ontogenetic development rate in the Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) complex. Environ. Entomol. 42, 614-626 (2013).
28. Gething, P. et al. Modelling the global constraints of temperature on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. Parasit. Vectors 4, 92 (2011).
29. Ruybal, J. E., Kramer, L. D. & Kilpatrick, A. M. Geographic variation in the response of Culex pipiens life history traits to temperature. Parasit. Vectors 9, 116 (2016).
30. Dell, A. I., Pawar, S. & Savage, V. M. The thermal dependence of biological traits. Ecology 94, 1205-1206 (2013).
31. Kellermann, V. et al. Upper thermal limits of Drosophila are linked to species distributions and strongly constrained phylogenetically. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 109, 16228-16233 (2012).
32. Araujo, M. B. et al. Heat freezes niche evolution. Ecol. Lett. 16, 1206-1219 (2013).
33. Stratman-Thomas, W. K. The Influence of Temperature on Plasmodium vivax. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg 20, 703-715 (1940).
34. Smith, D. L. & McKenzie, F. E. Statics and dynamics of malaria infection in Anopheles mosquitoes. Malar. J. 3, 13 (2004).
35. Meyrowitsch, D. W. et al. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population? Malar. J. 10, 1475-2875 (2011).