Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 6, Issue 7, 2016, Pages 696-700

  Lentz, Erika E ^a   Thieler, E Robert ^a   Plant, Nathaniel G ^a   Stippa, Sawyer R ^a   Horton, Radley M ^b,c   Gesch, Dean B ^a  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^b Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

^c NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COASTAL ZONE; DECISION MAKING; ELEVATION; ESTIMATION METHOD; LAND COVER; PREDICTION; RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 84975801195     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2957     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Horton, R. et al. in Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment (eds Melillo, J. M., Richmond, T. C. & Yohe, G. W.) 371-395 (US Global Change Research Program, 2014).
2. Wong, P. P. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 361-409 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
3. Strauss, B. H., Ziemlinski, R., Weiss, J. L. & Overpeck, J. T. Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous US. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 014033 (2012).
4. Church, J. A. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1137-1216 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
5. Sweet, W. V. & Park, J. From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise. Earth's Future 2, 579-600 (2014).
6. Gieder, K. D. et al. A Bayesian network approach to predicting nest presence of the federally-threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) using barrier island features. Ecol. Modelling 276, 38-50 (2014).
7. Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S. & Carpenter, S. R. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conserv. Biol. 17, 358-366 (2003).
8. Gesch, D. B. Analysis of Lidar elevation data for improved identification and delineation of lands vulnerable to sea-level rise. J. Coast. Res. 53, 49-58 (2009).
9. Parris, A. P. et al. Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment (NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1, 2012).
10. Kirwan, M. L. et al. Limits on the adaptability of coastal marshes to rising sea-level. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L23401 (2010).
11. Cowell, P. J., Roy, P. S. & Jones, R. A. Simulation of large-scale coastal change using a morphological behavior model. Mar. Geol. 126, 45-61 (1995).
12. Ranasinghe, R., Callaghan, D. & Stive, M. Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun Rule. Climatic Change 110, 561-574 (2012).
13. Wainwright, D. J. et al. Moving from deterministic towards probabilistic coastal hazard and risk assessment: development of a modelling framework and application to Narrabeen Beach, New SouthWales, Australia. Coast. Eng. 96, 92-99 (2015).
14. National Research Council Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment (The National Academies, 2009).
15. Kopp, R. E. et al. Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites. Earth's Future 2, 383-406 (2014).
16. Marcy, D. et al. in Proc. 2011 Solutions Coast. Disast. Conf. (edsWallendorv, L., Jones, C., Ewing, L. & Battalio, R.) 474-490 (American Society of Civil Engineers, 2011).
17. Cahoon, D. R. et al. in Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region. A report by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (ed. Titus, J. G.) 57-72 (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2009).
18. Clark, J. S. Coastal forest tree populations in a changing environment, Southeastern Long Island, New York. Ecol. Monogr. 56, 259-277 (1986).
19. Gutierrez, B. T., Williams, S. J. & Thieler, E. R. in Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region. A report by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (ed. Titus, J. G.) 43-56 (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2009).
20. Bamber, J. L. & Aspinall, W. P. An expert judgment assessment of future sea-level rise from the ice sheets. Nature Clim. Change 3, 424-427 (2013).
21. Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., Engelhart, S. E. & Kemp, A. C. Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quat. Sci. Rev. 84, 1-6 (2014).
22. Lentz, E. E. et al. Evaluating the Coastal Landscape Response to Sea-Level Rise for the Northeastern US: Approach and Methods Open-File Report 2014-1252 (US Geological Survey, 2015).
23. Mastrandrea, M. D. et al. Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties (IPCC, 2010).
24. Alley, R. B. et al. Oceanic forcing of ice-sheet retreat: west Antarctica and more. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 43, 207-231 (2015).
25. Knutson, T. R. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geosci. 3, 157-163 (2010).
26. Plant, N. G. & Stockdon, H. F. Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes. J. Geophys. Res. 117, F03015 (2012).
27. Gutierrez, B. T., Plant, N. G. & Thieler, E. R. A Bayesian network to predict the coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise. J. Geophys. Res. 116, F02009 (2011).
28. Moss, R. H. et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747-756 (2010).
29. Horton, R. et al. New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Chapter 2: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storms. Ann. NY Acad. Sci. 1336, 36-44 (2015).
30. Taylor, K. E., Stouer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485-498 (2012).
31. Marzeion, B., Jarosch, A. H. & Hofer, M. Past and future sea-level change from the surface mass balance of glaciers. Cryosphere 6, 1295-1322 (2012).
32. Radi, V. et al. Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models. Clim. Dynam. 42, 37-58 (2013).
33. Sella, G. F. et al. Observation of glacial isostatic adjustment in stable' North America with GPS. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L02306 (2007).
34. Zervas, C., Gill, S. & Sweet, W. Estimating Vertical Land Motion from Long-Term Tide Gauge Records Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 065 (US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, 2013).
35. Gesch, D. B. in Digital Elevation Model Technologies and Applications: The DEM User's Manual 2nd edn (ed. Maune, D.) 99-118 (American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 2007).