Egypt's Future: Status Quo, Incremental Growth or Regional Leadership?

Middle East Policy

Volumn 23, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 76-94

  Mason, Robert ^a  

^a BRITISH UNIVERSITY IN EGYPT   (Egypt)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84975060973     PISSN: 10611924     EISSN: 14754967     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/mepo.12196     Document Type: Article

References (97)

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17. Nicolas Parasie and Jay Soloman, "Gulf States Pledge Aid to Egypt, U.S. Balks," March 13, 2015, http:// www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-states-pledge-additional-12-billion-in-aid-to-egypt-1426262660.
18. Ibrahim Alsahary, "Central Bank: Egypt's Budget Deficit Shrinks to 12.4% of GDP in 2013/2014," Egypt Independent, October 2, 2014, http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/central-bank-egypt-s-budget-deficitshrinks- 124-gdp-20132014.
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23. Tamer Hafez, "Damietta Grain Project Offers Big Promises," American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt, March 2015, http://www.amcham.org.eg/resources_publications/publications/business_monthly/issue. asp?sec=4&subsec=Global%20Trade&im=3&iy=2015.
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25. Egyptsource, "What Was Pledged at Egypt's Investment Conference," Atlantic Council, March 16, 2015, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/egyptsource/what-was-pledged-at-egypt-s-investment-conference.
26. Nadia Taher, "In the Shadow of Politics: USAID-Government of Egypt Relations and Urban Housing Intervention," Environment and Urbanization 13, no. 1, 2001.
27. Tarek El-Tablawy et al., "Egypt Secures Billions in Aid, Deals as Gulf Arabs Lead Way."
28. Egypt Oil and Gas Web Portal, "Sisi: Egypt Is Committed to Paying Off Debt to IOCs," August 10, 2015, http://www.egyptoil-gas.com/news/sisi-egypt-is-committed-to-paying-off-debt-to-iocs/.
29. Adel Abdel Ghafar, "Egypt's New Gas Discovery: Opportunities and Challenges," Brookings Institution, September 10, 2015, http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/09/10-egypt-gas-discovery-abdelghafar.
30. For a critique of modernity and "progress" in the Arab world, see Galal Amin, The Illusion of Progress in the Arab World (American University in Cairo Press 2006).
31. Andrew Mason, "Population and Economic Growth in East Asia," Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized (Stanford University Press, 2001), 8.
32. See, for example, Steven Radelet, Jeffrey Sachs and Jong-Wha Lee, "Economic Growth in Asia," Development Discussion Paper 609, Harvard Institute for International Development, November 1997, http://www. cid.harvard.edu/hiid/609.pdf.
33. Mona Khalifa, Julie DaVanzo and David M. Adamson, "Population Growth in Egypt - A Continuing Policy Challenge," RAND, http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP183/index2.html.
34. Robert Springborg, "The Hound That Did Not Bark," in Business Politics in the Middle East, eds. Steffan Hertog, Giacomo Luciani and Marc Valeri (Hurst, 2013), 248-249.
35. James Manyika et al., Manufacturing the Future: The Next Era of Global Growth and Innovation (McKinsey & Company, November 2012), http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/manufacturing/the_future_of_manufacturing.
36. M. C. Young, The African Colonial State in Comparative Perspective (Yale University Press, 1994).
37. David Henley and Jan Kees van Donge, "Diverging Paths, Explanations and Implications," in Asian Tigers, African Lions: Comparing the Development Performance of Southeast Asia and Africa, eds. Bernard Berendsen et.al. (BRILL, 2013), 43.
38. Paul Knox, John Agnew and Linda McCarthy, "Evolution of the Industrial Core Regions" in The Geography of the World Economy (Routledge, 2013), 135-136.
39. "Egypt's Military: Key Facts," CNN, February 15, 2011, http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/ 02/14/egypt.military.facts/index.html.
40. Walaa Ramadan, "The Egyptian Military Empire," Middle East Monitor, July 9, 2014, https://www.middleeastmonitor. com/articles/africa/12653-the-egyptian-military-empire.
41. Although other estimates range from 10-40 percent of Egypt's GDP. Zeinab Abul-Magd, "The General's Secret: Egypt's Ambivalent Market," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Middle East Analysis, February 9, 2012, http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2012/02/09/generals-secret-egypt-s-ambivalent-market/ fdc9.
42. Florence Gaub, "Arab Military Spending: Behind the Figures," European Union Institute for Security Studies, May 2014, 2, http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Alert_27_Arab_military_spending.pdf.
43. Zeinab Abul-Magd, "The General's Secret: Egypt's Ambivalent Market."
44. Ibrahim El Houdaiby, "Fighting the Last War? Civil-Military Relations in Egypt," FRIDE Policy Brief 179, 2014, 2, http://fride.org/download/PB_179_Civil_military_relations_in_Egypt.pdf.
45. Zeinab Abul-Magd, "The Egyptian Republic of Retired Generals," Foreign Policy, May 8, 2012, http://foreignpolicy. com/2012/05/08/the-egyptian-republic-of-retired-generals/.
46. Ibrahim El Houdaiby, "Fighting the Last War? Civil-Military Relations in Egypt," FRIDE, 2.
47. Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of the Armed Forces, "Security Sector Governance in Egypt: Civil-Military Relations in Focus," DCAF International Expert Conference Report, April 2-4, 2014, 11, http:// www.marsad.eg/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/DCAF-Conference-Report-Security-Sector-Governance-in- Egypt-Civil-Military-Relations-in-Focus1.pdf.
48. Elisabeth Kendall and Stephen Whitefield, "Democracy in Contemporary Egypt," University of Oxford, http://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/ke-feature/democracy-in-contemporary-egypt.html.
49. The Ministry of Defense was awarded several contracts by other government ministries between 2013- 2014, valued at $1 billion. Ahmed Morsi, "The Military Crowds Out Civilian Business in Egypt," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 24, 2014, http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/06/24/militarycrowds- out-civilian-business-in-egypt/hedq.
50. Abigail Hauslohner, "Egypt's 'Military Inc' Expands its Control of the Economy," Guardian, March 18, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/18/egypt-military-economy-power-elections.
51. Case of striking workers for safer working conditions tried for "disclosing military secrets" and "illegally stopping production".
52. Thanassis Cambanis, "Succession Gives Army a Stiff Test in Egypt," New York Times, September 11, 2010, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/12/world/ middleeast/12egypt.html?_r=3&ref=global-home&pagewanted=all&.
53. Ahmad El-Sayed El-Naggar, "Economic Policy: From State Control to State Decay and Corruption," in Egypt: The Moment of Change, eds. Rabab El Mahdi and Philip Marfleet (Zed Books, 2009), 36.
54. Jeremy M. Sharp, "Summary," Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations (Congressional Research Service, March 3, 2015), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf.
55. The White House, "Readout of the President's Call with President al-Sisi of Egypt," March 31, 2015, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/03/31/readout-president-s-call-president-al-sisi-egypt.
56. "Arab League Agrees to Create Joint Military Force," BBC News, March 29, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/ news/world-middle-east-32106939.
57. "Egypt May Not Need Fighter Jets, But the U.S. Keeps Sending them Anyway," National Public Radio, August 8, 2013, http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/08/08/209878158/egypt-may-not-need-fighter-jetsbut- u-s-keeps-sending-them-anyway.
58. Anthony H. Cordesman, The Egyptian Military and the Arab-Israeli Military Balance: Conventional Realities and Asymmetric Challenges (Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2011), 10, https://csis.org/ files/publication/110210_egypt-arab-israeli_mil_bal.pdf.
59. Telephone interview with Frank Wisner, August 14, 2015.
60. Jeremy M. Sharp, Egypt: Background and U.S. Relations (Congressional Research Service, 2015), https:// fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf.
61. Julian Pecuet, "Key Democratic Senator Considers Blocking Aid to Egypt," Al Monitor, April 29, 2014, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/aid-egypt-blocked-senator-leahy.html#.
62. Oren Kessler, "Trading Peace in Egypt and Israel," Foreign Affairs, August 23, 2015, https://www.foreignaffairs. com/articles/israel/2015-08-23/trading-peace-egypt-and-israel.
63. Author's telephone interview with Ahmed Ghoneim, April 12, 2014.
64. Gamal Essam El-Din, "Three Scenarios Expected for Egypt's Parliamentary Elections," Ahram Online, March 16, 2015, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/151/125390/Egypt/Features/Three-scenariosexpected- for-Egypts-parliamentary-.aspx.
65. Ahmed Aboulenein and Eric Knecht, "Turnout Low in Egypt's Long-Awaited Parliamentary Election," Reuters, October 18, 2015, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/18/us-egypt-election-idUSKCN0SC0742 0151018#zPHiHk83Q0gJxqjE.97.
66. Omar Ashour, "Collusion to Crackdown: Islamist-Military Relations in Egypt," Brookings Doha Center Analysis Paper No. 14, 2015, 9, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/10-islamistmilitary- relations-in-egypt-ashour/collusion-to-crackdown-english.pdf.
67. The Muslim Brotherhood was declared a terrorist organization in December 2013, "Egypt Government Declares Muslim Brotherhood 'Terrorist Group,'" Ahram Online, December 26, 2013, http://english.ahram.org. eg/NewsContent/1/64/90037/Egypt/Politics-/Egypt-government-declares-Muslim-Brotherhood-terro.aspx.
68. Omar Ashour, "Collusion to Crackdown: Islamist-Military Relations in Egypt," Brookings Institution, 12.
69. Mamoun Fandy, "Egypt: Could It Lead the Arab World?" The Middle East in 2015, 63.
70. Hassan Ahmadian, "Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Changing Political Groupings in Mideast," Iran Review, March 9, 2015, http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/Saudi-Arabia-Turkey-Egypt-and- Changing-Political-Groupings-in-Mideast.htm.
71. Bernard Haykel, Qatar and Islamism (Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre Policy Brief, 2013), http://www.peacebuilding.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/original/application/ac81941df1be874ccbda35e- 747218abf.pdf.
72. Abigail Hauslohner, "Egypt's 'Military Inc' Expands its Control of the Economy."
73. Jamil al-Ziabi, "Qatari FM: We Do Not Support the Muslim Brotherhood," Al-Monitor, February 22, 2015, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2015/02/qatar-foreign-minister-gulf-hezbollah-brotherhood.html.
74. Adam Schreck, "Qatar Pulls Diplomat in Terror Support Row," The Independent, February 19, 2015, http:// www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/qatar-pulls-diplomat-in-terror-support-row-10057745.html.
75. Asa Fitch and Summer Said, "Gulf Cooperation Council Backs Qatar after Egypt Allegations," Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2015, http://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-cooperation-council-backs-qatar-after-egyptallegations- 1424359898.
76. "Arab League Agrees to Create a Joint Military Force," BBC News, March 29, 2015, http://www.bbc.com/ news/world-middle-east-32106939.
77. Sami Kleib, "Saudi Arabia Consolidates Its Alliance against Iran," al-Akhbar, March 3, 2015, http://english. al-akhbar.com/content/saudi-arabia-consolidates-its-alliance-against-iran.
78. Noah Rayman, "The Real Reason Egypt Is Buying Fighter Jets from France," Time, February 14, 2015, http://time.com/3710118/egypt-rafale-fighter-jet-france/.
79. Asa Fitch, "Oil Price Slide May Curb Gulf State's Spending Plans," Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2014, http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-slide-may-curb-gulf-states-spending-plans-1416792930.
80. F. Gregory Gause III, "Ideologies and Underbalancing in the New Middle East," Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS), August 26, 2015, http://pomeps.org/2015/08/26/ideologies-alliances-and-underbalancing- in-the-new-middle-east-cold-war/.
81. David D. Kirkpatrick and Eric Schmitt, "Arab Nations Strike in Libya, Surprising U.S.," New York Times, August 25, 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/world/africa/egypt-and-united-arab-emirates-said-tohave- secretly-carried-out-libya-airstrikes.html?_r=0.
82. Anthony H. Cordesman, The Military Balance in the Middle East (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Praeger, 2004), 183.
83. Tim Ripley, "United Arab Emirates," in Middle East Airpower in the 21st Century (Pen and Sword Books, 2010), 240.
84. Author's interview with a U.S. source who asked not to be named, December 9, 2014.
85. Hassan Abou Taleb, "Restoring Egypt's Soft Power," Ahram Online, December 18, 2013, http://english. ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/4/0/89087/Opinion/Restoring-Egypt%E2%80%99s-soft-power.aspx.
86. Joseph S. Nye, "The Changing Nature of Power," Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (Perseus Books, 2005).
87. Nabil Fahmy, "A More Assertive Arab Foreign Policy," Cairo Review of Global Affairs, http://www.aucegypt. edu/GAPP/CairoReview/Pages/articleDetails.aspx?aid=26.
88. Reem Abou-El-Fadl, "The Road to Jerusalem through Tahrir Square: Anti-Zionism and Palestine in the 2011 Egyptian Revolution," Journal of Palestine Studies 41, no. 2 (Winter 2012), http://www.palestine-studies. org/jps/fulltext/42573.
89. Mohammad Selim, "Where Have All the Democratic Expectations Gone?: Tunisia and Egypt in Comparative Perspective," in Democracy and Reform in the Middle East and Asia: Social Protest and Authoritarian Rule after the Arab Spring, eds. Amin Saikal and Amitav Acharya (I. B. Tauris, 2014), 30.
90. Galal Amin, Egypt in the Era of Hosni Mubarak 1981-2011 (AUC Press, 2011), 160.
91. Mohammed N. Al Khan, "UAE Best Place to Live or Emulate, Says Arab Youth Survey," The National, April 10, 2013, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/uae-best-place-to-live-or-emulate-says-arab-youthsurvey.
92. Bindu Suresh Rai, "UAE Most Desired Country For Arab Youth," Emirates 24/7, April 7, 2014, http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/uae-best-place-to-live-or-emulate-says-arab-youth-survey.
93. "Egypt's New Capital Theme Park to be '4 Times Size of Disneyland,'" Emirates 24/7, March 14, 2015, http://www.emirates247.com/news/egypt-s-new-capital-theme-park-to-be-4-times-size-of-disneyland- 2015-03-14-1.584106.
94. "Al Jazeera Trial: Egypt Court Frees Journalists on Bail," BBC News, February 12, 2015, http://www.bbc. com/news/world-australia-31435436.
95. Judy Dempsey, "Influencing Egypt with Soft Power," New York Times, September 2, 2013, http://carnegieeurope. eu/publications/?fa=52824.
96. Timo Behr, "The European Neighborhood Policy: Going Full Circle?" in The International Politics of the Arab Spring: Popular Unrest and Foreign Policy, ed. Robert Mason (Palgrave, 2014), 61-83.
97. Author's interview, Abu Dhabi, March 25, 2015.