Temporal and spatial dynamics of large lake hypoxia: Integrating statistical and three-dimensional dynamic models to enhance lake management criteria

Water Resources Research

Volumn 52, Issue 6, 2016, Pages 4247-4263

  Bocaniov, Serghei A ^a   Scavia, Donald ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

Author keywords

hypoxia; Lake Erie; modeling; monitoring

Indexed keywords

BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND; DISSOLVED OXYGEN; DYNAMICS; ECOLOGY; MODELS; MONITORING; POTABLE WATER;

ECOLOGICAL MODELING; HYPOXIA; LAKE ERIE; MONITORING PROGRAMS; STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIP; TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL; TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DYNAMICS; THREE-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMIC MODELS;

LAKES;

ANOXIC CONDITIONS; BOTTOM WATER; DISSOLVED OXYGEN; DRINKING WATER; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; LACUSTRINE ENVIRONMENT; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WATER CHEMISTRY; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE;

GREAT LAKES [NORTH AMERICA]; LAKE ERIE;

EID: 84973482311     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: 19447973     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2015WR018170     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Arend, K. K., D. Beletsky, J. V. DePinto, S. A. Ludsin, J. J. Roberts, D. K. Rucinski, D. Scavia, D. J. Schwab, and T. O. Höök (2011), Seasonal and interannual effects of hypoxia on fish habitat quality in central Lake Erie, Freshwater Biol., 56(2), 366–383.
2. Beeton, A. M. (1963), Eutrophication of the St. Lawrence Great Lakes, Limnol. Oceanogr., 10, 240–254.
3. Beletsky, D., N. Hawley, and Y. R. Rao (2013), Modeling summer circulation and thermal structure of Lake Erie, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118, 6238–6252, doi:10.1002/2013JC008854.
4. Bocaniov, S. A., R. E. H. Smith, C. M. Spillman, M. R. Hipsey, and L. F. Leon (2014a), The nearshore shunt and the decline of the phytoplankton spring bloom in the Laurentian Great Lakes: Insights from a three-dimensional lake model, Hydrobiologia, 731, 151–172.
5. Bocaniov, S. A., C. Ullmann, K. Rinke, K. G. Lamb, and B. Boehrer (2014b), Internal waves and mixing in a stratified reservoir: Insights from three-dimensional modeling, Limnologica, 49, 52–67.
6. Bolsenga, S., and C. Herdendorf (Eds.) (1993), Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair handbook, Wayne State Univ. Press, Detroit, Mich.
7. Bridgeman, T. B., J. D Chaffin, and J. F. Filbrun (2013), A novel method for tracking western Lake Erie Microcystis blooms, 2002–2011, J. Great Lakes Res., 39(1), 83–89.
8. Brunt, D. (1927), The period of simple vertical oscillations in the atmosphere, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 53, 30–32.
9. Burns, N. M., D. C. Rockwell, P. E. Bertram, D. M. Dolan, and J. J. H. Ciborowski (2005), Trends in temperature, Secchi depth, and dissolved oxygen depletion rates in the central basin of Lake Erie, 1983–2002, J. Great Lakes Res., 31, 35–49.
10. Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement (2014), Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, Chesapeake Bay Program, Annapolis, Md. [Available at , accessed 23 June 2015.]
11. Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) (2010), Scientific Assessment of Hypoxia in U.S. Coastal Waters, Interagency Working Group on Harmful Algal Blooms, Hypoxia, and Human Health of the Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology, Washington, D. C. [Available at , accessed 23 June 2015].
12. Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) (2000), An Integrated Assessment of Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. National Science and Technology Council Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, 58 pp., Washington, D. C. [Available at , accessed 23 June 2015.]
13. Davison, W. (1993), Iron and manganese in lakes, Earth Sci. Rev., 34(2), 119–163.
14. DePinto, J. V., T. C Young, and L. M. McIlroy (1986), Great Lakes water quality improvement, Environ. Sci. Technol., 20(8), 752–759.
15. Diaz, R. J. (2001), Overview of hypoxia around the world, J. Environ. Qual., 30(2), 275–281.
16. Diaz, R. J., and R. Rosenberg (2008), Spreading dead zones and consequences for marine ecosystems, Science, 321(5891), 926–929.
17. Dolan, D. M. (1993), Point source loadings of phosphorus to Lake Erie: 1986–1990, J. Great Lakes Res., 19(2), 212–223.
18. Dolan, D. M., and S. C. Chapra (2012), Great Lakes total phosphorus revisited: 1. Loading analysis and update (1994–2008), J. Great Lakes Res., 38(4), 730–740.
19. Farrell, A. P., and J. G. Richards (2009), Defining hypoxia: An integrative synthesis of the responses of fish to hypoxia, in Hypoxia, edited by J. G. Richards, A. P. Farrell, and C. J. Brauner, pp. 487–503, Academic, London, U. K., doi:10.1016/S1546-5098(08)00011-3.
20. Great Lakes Commission (2013), Annual Report of the Great Lakes Regional Water Use Database Representing 2011 Water Use Data, Issue 21, Ann Arbor, Mich. [Available at , accessed 15 July 2015.]
21. Hansson, M., L. Andersson, and P. Axe (2011), Areal extent and volume of anoxia and hypoxia in the Baltic Sea, 1960–2011, SMHI Rep. Ser. Rep. Oceanogr., 42, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden.
22. Hawley, N., T. H. Johengen, Y. R. Rao, S. A. Ruberg, D. Beletsky, S. A. Ludsin, B. J. Eadie, D. J. Schwab, T. E. Croley, and S. B. Brandt (2006), Lake Erie hypoxia prompts Canada-U.S. study, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(32), 313–319, doi:10.1029/2006EO320001.
23. Helsinki Commission (2007), HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan, Baltic Mar. Environ. Prot. Comm., 102 pp., Helsinki, Finland. [Available at , accessed 15 June 2015.]
24. Hipsey, M. R. (2008), The CWR Computational Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model CAEDYM. User Manual, Cent. for Water Res., Univ. of West. Aust., Perth, Australia.
25. Hodges, B., and C. Dallimore (2006), Estuary, Lake and Coastal Ocean Model: ELCOM. Science Manual. Cent. of Water Res., Univ. of West. Aust., Perth, Australia.
26. Hodges, B., J. Imberger, A. Saggio, and K. Winters (2000), Modeling basin-scale internal waves in a stratified lake, Limnol. Oceanogr., 45, 1603–1620.
27. Howarth, R., F. Chan, D. J. Conley, J. Garnier, S. C. Doney, R. Marino, and G. Billen (2011), Coupled biogeochemical cycles: Eutrophication and hypoxia in temperate estuaries and coastal marine ecosystems, Front. Ecol. Environ., 9, 18–26.
28. Huang, A., Y. R. Rao, Y. Lu, and J. Zhao (2010), Hydrodynamic modeling of Lake Ontario: An intercomparison of three models, J. Geophys. Res., 115, C12076, doi:10.1029/2010JC006269.
29. International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (2006), Danube Pollution Reduction Programme. [Available at , accessed 29 June 2015.]
30. International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (2009), Danube River Basin District Management Plan. [Available at , accessed 15 July 2015.]
31. Idso, S. B. (1973), On the concept of lake stability, Limnol. Oceanogr., 18, 681–683.
32. Idso, S. B., and R. D. Jackson (1969), Thermal radiation from the atmosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 74, 5397–5403.
33. International Joint Commission (IJC) (2012), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement 2012. Protocol Amending the Agreement between Canada and the United States of America on Great Lakes Water Quality, Windsor, Ontario, Canada, 7 Sept. 2012.
34. Imberger, J. (1985), The diurnal mixed layer, Limnol. Oceanogr., 30(4), 737–770.
35. Kraus, R. T., C. T Knight, T. M. Farmer, A. M. Gorman, P. D. Collingsworth, G. J. Warren, P. M. Kocovsky, and J. D. Conroy (2015), Dynamic hypoxic zones in Lake Erie compress fish habitat, altering vulnerability to fishing gears, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 72(6), 797–806, doi:10.1139/cjfas-2014-0517.
36. Leon, L. F., R. E. H. Smith, M. R. Hipsey, S. A. Bocaniov, S. N. Higgins, R. E. Hecky, J. P. Antenucci, J. A. Imberger, and S. J. Guildford (2011), Application of a 3D hydrodynamic-biological model for seasonal and spatial dynamics of water quality and phytoplankton in Lake Erie, J. Great. Lakes. Res., 37, 41–53.
37. Liu, W., S. A. Bocaniov, K. G. Lamb, and R. E. H. Smith (2014), Three dimensional modeling of the effects of changes in meteorological forcing on the thermal structure of Lake Erie, J. Great Lakes Res., 40, 827–840.
38. Michalak, A. M., et al. (2013), Record-setting algal bloom in Lake Erie caused by agricultural and meteorological trends consistent with expected future conditions, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 110(16), 6448–6452.
39. Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force (MR/GOM) (2001), Action plan for reducing, mitigating, and controlling hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Off. of Wetlands, Oceans, and Watersheds, U.S. Environ. Prot. Agency, Washington, D. C.
40. Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force (MR/GOM) (2008), Gulf hypoxia action plan, Off. of Wetlands, Oceans, and Watersheds, U.S. Environ. Protect. Agency, Washington, D. C.
41. Obenour, D., D. Scavia, N. R. Rabalais, E. R. Turner, and A. Michalak (2013), A retrospective analysis of mid-summer hypoxic area and volume in the northern Gulf of Mexico, 1985-2011, Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 9808−9815.
42. Obenour, D. R., A. M. Michalak, and D. Scavia (2015), Assessing biophysical controls on Gulf of Mexico hypoxia through probabilistic modeling, Ecol. Appl., 25(2), 492–505.
43. Parkinson, C. L., and W. M. Washington (1979), A large-scale numerical model of sea ice, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 311–337.
44. Rabalais, N. N., R. E. Turner, and W. J. Wiseman Jr. (2002), Gulf of Mexico hypoxia, AKA" The dead zone", Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 33, 235–263.
45. Rabalais, N. N., R. E. Turner, B. S. Gupta, D. F. Boesch, P. Chapman, and M. C. Murrell (2007), Hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Does the science support the plan to reduce, mitigate, and control hypoxia?, Estuarine Coasts, 30(5), 753–772.
46. Rao, Y. R., T. Howell, S. B. Watson, and S. Abernethy (2014), On hypoxia and fish kills along the north shore of Lake Erie, J. Great Lakes Res., 40, 187–191.
47. R Core Team (2014), R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Found. for Stat. Comput., Vienna, Austria. [Available at , accessed 15 June 2015.]
48. Read, J. S., D. P. Hamilton, I. D. Jones, K. Muraoka, L. A. Winslow, R. Kroiss, C. H. Wu, and E. Gaiser (2011), Derivation of lake mixing and stratification indices from high-resolution lake buoy data, Environ. Modell. Software, 26(11), 1325–1336.
49. Renaud, M. L. (1986), Hypoxia in Louisiana coastal waters during 1983: Implications for fisheries, Fish. B-NOAA, 84, 19–26.
50. Roberts, J. J., T. O. Höök, S. A. Ludsin, S. A. Pothoven, H. A. Vanderploeg, and S. B. Brandt (2009), Effects of hypolimnetic hypoxia on foraging and distributions of Lake Erie yellow perch, J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 381, S132–S142.
51. Rodgers, G. K., and D. V. Anderson (1961), A preliminary study of the energy budget of Lake Ontario, J. Fish. Res. Board Can., 18(4), 617–636.
52. Ruberg, S. A., E. Guasp, N. Hawley, R. W. Muzzi, S. B. Brandt, H. A. Vanderploeg, J. C. Lane, T. Miller, and S. A. Constant (2008), Societal benefits of the real-time coastal observation network (ReCON): Implications for municipal drinking water quality, Mar. Technol. Soc. J., 42(3), 103–109.
53. Rucinski, D. K., J. V. DePinto, D. Scavia, and D. Beletsky (2014), Modeling Lake Erie's hypoxia response to nutrient loads and physical variability, J. Great Lakes Res., 40, 151–161.
54. Sambridge, M., J. Braun, and H. McQueen (1995), Geophysical parametrization and interpolation of irregular data using natural neighbours, Geophys. J. Int., 122, 837–857.
55. Scavia, D., and J. V. DePinto (2015), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement Nutrient Annex Objectives and Targets Task Team Ensemble Modeling Report, 229 pp., University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich. [Available at , accessed 10 Aug. 2015.]
56. Scavia, D., et al.(2014), Assessing and addressing the re-eutrophication of Lake Erie: Central basin hypoxia. J. Great Lakes Res., 40(2), 226–246.
57. Schertzer, W. M., J. H Saylor, F. M. Boyce, D. G. Robertson, and F. Rosa (1987), Seasonal thermal cycle of Lake Erie, J. Great Lakes Res., 13(4), 468–486.
58. Schmidt, W. (1928), Über die Temperatur-und Stabilitätsverhältnisse von Seen, Geograf. Ann., 10, 145–177.
59. Schwab, D. J., and J. A. Morton (1984), Estimation of overlake wind speed from overland wind speed: A comparison of three methods, J. Great Lakes Res., 10(1), 68–72, doi:10.1016/S0380-1330(84)71808-9.
60. Sly, L. I., M. C. Hodgkinson, and V. Arunpairojana (1990), Deposition of manganese in a drinking water distribution system, Appl. Environ. Microb., 56(3), 628–639.
61. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2010), Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment, U.S. Environ. Protect. Agency, Chesapeake Bay Program Off., Annapolis, Md. [Available at , accessed 15 June 2015.]
62. Väisälä, V. (1925), Über die Wirkung der Windschwankungen auf die Pilotbeobachtungen, Soc. Sci. Fenn. Commentat. Phys. Math., 2(19), 19–37.
63. Vanderploeg, H. A., S. A. Ludsin, S. A. Ruberg, T. O. Höök, S. A. Pothoven, S. B. Brandt, G. A. Lang, J. R. Liebig, and J. F. Cavaletto (2009), Hypoxia affects spatial distributions and overlap of pelagic fish, zooplankton, and phytoplankton in Lake Erie, J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 381, S92–S107.
64. Vaquer-Sunyer, R., and C. M. Duarte (2008), Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 105(40), 15,452–15,457.
65. Zhou, Y., D. R. Obenour, D. Scavia, T. H. Johengen, and A. M. Michalak (2013), Spatial and temporal trends in Lake Erie hypoxia, 1987–2007, Environ. Sci. Technol., 47, 899–905, doi:10.1021/es303401b.
66. Zhou, Y., D. Scavia, and A. M. Michalak (2014), Nutrient loading and meteorological conditions explain interannual variability of hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay, Limnol. Oceanogr., 59, 373–374, doi:10.4319/lo.2014.59.2.0373.
67. Zhou, Y., A. M. Michalak, D. Beletsky, Y. R. Rao, and R. P. Richards (2015), Record-breaking Lake Erie hypoxia during 2012 drought, Environ. Sci. Technol., 49(2), 800–807, doi:10.1021/es503981n.