Support for the Canadian Federal Progressive Conservative Party since 1988: The Impact of Economic Evaluations and Economic Issues

Canadian Journal of Political Science

Volumn 25, Issue 1, 1992, Pages 29-54

  Clarke, Harold D ^a   Kornberg, Allan ^a  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84972367250     PISSN: 00084239     EISSN: 17449324     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0008423900001906     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Reviews of the literature are Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1988), and William L. Miller, “Studying How the Economy Affects Public Attitudes and Behavior: Problems and Prospects,” in Harold D. Clarke, Marianne C. Stewart and Gary Zuk, eds., Economic Decline and Political Change: Canada, Great Britain, the United States (Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1989).
2. On the instability of party identification in Canada and the concomitant importance of short-term forces in federal elections see Harold D. Clarke, Jane Jenson, Lawrence LeDuc and Jon Pammett, Political Choice in Canada (Toronto: McGraw-Hill Ryerson, 1979), and Harold D. Clarke, Jane Jenson, Lawrence LeDuc and Jon Pammett, Absent Mandate: Interpreting Change in Canadian Elections (2nd ed.; Agincourt, Gage, 1991).
3. See, for example, Keith Archer and Marquis Johnson, “Inflation, Unemployment and Canadian Federal Voting Behaviour,’’ this journal 21 (1988), 569-585; Clarke et al., Political Choice in Canada, chaps. 8, 11, 12; and Clarke et al., Absent Mandate, chaps. 4, 6, 7.
4. See, for example, Calum M. Carmichael, “Economic Conditions and the Popularity of the Incumbent Party in Canada,” this journal 23 (1990), 713-726;
5. Harold D. Clarke and Gary Zuk, “The Politics of Party Popularity: Canada, 1974-1979,” Comparative Politics 20 (1987), 299-316;
6. Jack R. Happy, “Economic Performance and Retrospective Voting in Canadian Federal Elections,” this journal 22 (1989), 377-387;
7. Kristen Monroe and Lynda Erickson, “The Economy and Political Support: The Canadian Case,” Journal of Politics 48 (1986), 616–47.
8. V. O. Key, Jr., The Responsible Electorate: Rationality in Presidential Voting, 1936–1960 (New York: Vintage Books, 1968), 7.
9. See Mark Peffley, “The Voter as Juror: Attributing Responsibility for Economic Conditions,” in Heinz Eulau and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, eds., Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes: The United States and Western Europe (New York: Agathon Press, 1985).
10. See, for example, Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections, chaps. 3, 4.
11. See Kenneth Bollen, Structural Equations with Latent Variables (New York: Wiley Interscience, 1989), chaps. 6, 7.
12. See Karl Joreskog and Dag Sorbom, LISREL 7: A Guide to the Program and Applications (Chicago: SPSS Inc., 1988), 192–93.
13. See Allan Kornberg and Harold D. Clarke, Citizens and Community: Political Support in a Representative Democracy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992), chap. 2.
14. When testing the goodness-of-fit of a CFA model, “[l]arge x2 values correspond to bad fit and small x2 values to good fit. The degrees of freedom serve as a standard by which to judge whether x2 is large or small.” See Joreskog and Sorbom, LISREL 7, 42. In this regard, note that a simple one-factor model for the 1983, 1988 and 1990 data has a markedly worse fit than the three-factor alternative. In 1990, for example, testing a one-factor model yields x29-116.69, p<.001.
15. Alan Frizzell, Jon H. Pammett and Anthony Westell, The Canadian General Election of 1988 (Ottawa: Carleton University Press, 1988), 95.
16. See, for example, Harold D. Clarke and Marianne C. Stewart, “Partisan Inconsistency and Partisan Change in Federal States: The Case of Canada,” American Journal of Political Science 31 (1987), 383–407
17. Michael Martinez, “Partisan Reinforcement in Context and Cognition: Canadian Federal Partisanships, 1974-79,” American Journal of Political Science 34 (1990), 822–45.
18. See, for example, Keith Archer, “A Simultaneous Equation Model of Canadian Voting Behaviour,” this journal 20 (1987), 533–72, and Clarke and Stewart, “Partisan Inconsistency and Partisan Change.”
19. See John Aldrich and Forrest Nelson, Linear Probability, Logit and Probit Models (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1984), 43.
20. The principal findings are reviewed in Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections, chaps. 3, 4.
21. See Archer and Johnson, “Inflation, Unemployment and Federal Voting Behaviour,” 580-84, and Clarke, Absent Mandate, 143-45.