Deterrence: The Elusive Dependent Variable

World Politics

Volumn 42, Issue 3, 1990, Pages 336-369

  Lebow, Richard Ned ^a   Stein, Janice Gross ^a  

^a NONE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84971938001     PISSN: 00438871     EISSN: 10863338     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2010415     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. Patrick M. Morgan, Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Library of Social Science, 1977)
2. Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974).
3. For a recent review of the controversies associated with the testing of theories of deterrence, see the following articles in World Politics 41 (January 1989)
4. Christopher H. Achen and Duncan Snidal, “Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies,” pp. 143–169;
5. Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, “Deterrence and Foreign Policy,” pp. 170–182;
6. Robert Jervis, “Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence,” pp. 183–207;
7. Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, “Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think, Therefore I Deter,” pp. 208–224;
8. George W. Downs, “The Rational Deterrence Debate,” pp. 225–237.
9. Paul Huth and Bruce Russett, “What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980,” World Politics 36 (July 1984), 496–526.
10. Huth Russett, presented a revised data set in, March, “Deterrence Failure and Crisis Escalation,”, International Studies Quarterly, 32, 1988, 29, 46
11. Paul Huth, Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1988)
12. Huth's article–length version, “Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War,” American Political Science Review 82 (June 1988), 423–444.
13. Ide Anak Agung Gde Agung, Twenty Years Indonesian Foreign Policy, 1945–1965 (The Hague: Mouton, 1973)
14. Robert C. Bone, Jr., The Dynamics of the Western New Guinea (Irian Barat) Problem (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1962)
15. Bruce Grant, ed., Indonesia ( Melbourne: Melbourne University Press, 1964)
16. William Henderson, West New Guinea: The Dispute and Its Settlement (New York: Seton Hall University Press, 1973)
17. Michael Leifer, Indonesia s Foreign Policy (London: George Allen & Unwin, 1983)
18. Guy J. Pauker, “General Nasution's Mission to Moscow,” Asian Survey 1 (March 1961), 15–17.
19. Huth and Russett (fn. 3,1984), 505.
20. Bruce Russett, “The Calculus of Deterrence,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 7 (June 1963), 97–109, at 98, defined success as the repulse of a challenge to a client without a violent military confrontation
21. George and Smoke (fn. 2), 517n., cite the Berlin blockade, Suez, and the second Taiwan Straits crisis as cases in point. They score the Berlin blockade in 1948, for example, as a failure of American deterrence; Huth and Russett code it as a success.
22. Clinton Fink, “More Calculations About Deterrence,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 9 (March 1965), 54–65, makes a similar argument about tautological reasoning.
23. An early and influential example of this kind of thinking was Robert E. Osgood, Limited War: The Challenge to American Strategy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1957). For a critique of current thinking of this kind and its application to Soviet policy in Afghanistan
24. Richard Herrmann, “The Soviet Decision to Withdraw from Afghanistan: Changing Strategic and Regional Images,” paper presented at the Twelfth Annual Scientific Meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology, Tel Aviv, June 18–23, 1989.
25. Lebow and Stein, When Does Deterrence Succeed and How Do We Know? (Ottawa: Canadian Institute for International Peace and Security, forthcoming, 1990).
26. Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966)
27. 24See, for examp Alexander L. George, David K. Hall, and William E. Simons, in The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy: Laos, Cuba, Vietnam (Boston: Little, Brown, 1971), assert that whether compellence succeeds depends on how strongly motivated the challenger is, on the nature of the demand, and on the mixture of inducements and threats.
28. Tang Tsou, America's Failure in China: 1941–50, 2 vols. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963
29. Melvin Gurtov and Byong-Moo Hwang, China Under Threat: The Politics of Strategy and Diplomacy (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980);
30. Dorothy Borg and Waldo Heinrichs, eds., The Uncertain Years: Chinese-American Relations, 1947–1950 (New York: Columbia University Press, 1980)
31. John Lewis Gaddis, The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1987).
32. Paul Stern, Robert Axelrod, Robert Jervis, and Roy Radnor examine the impact of perceptions of legitimacy on the outcome of deterrence in their “Conclusions,” in Perspectives on Deterrence (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989), 294–321.
33. Kenneth C. Royall to Robert P. Patterson, n.d. mid-August 1946, box 9, general decimal file, Robert P. Patterson Papers, Records of the Office of the Secretary of War, RG 107 (National Archives); Foreign Relations of the United States, 1946, vol. VII
34. Harry S. Truman, Memoirs: Years of Trial and Hope (Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1956), Vol. II
35. Bruce Kuniholm, The Origins of the Cold War in the Near East (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1980)
36. Melvyn P. Leffler, “From Cold War to Cold War in the Middle East,” Reviews in American History 9 (March 1981), 124–130
37. Strategy, Diplomacy, and the Cold War: The United States, Turkey, and NATO, 1945–1952
38. Journal of American History 71 (March 1985), 807–825
39. Harry N. Howard, Turkey, the Straits and U.S. Policy (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974), 210–280
40. Anthony R. De Luca, “Soviet-American Politics and the Turkish Straits,” Political Science Quarterly 97 (Fall 1977), 503–24
41. Anthony Eden, Facing the Dictators: The Memoirs of Anthony Eden (Boston: Houghton, Mifflin, 1962)
42. George W. Baer, The Coming of the Italo-Ethiopian War (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1967)
43. Frank Hardie, The Abyssinian Crisis (Hamden, CT: Archon, 1974)
44. Cedric J. Lowe and Frank Marzari, Italian Foreign Policy, 1870–1940 (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1975)
45. Esmonde M. Robertson, Mussolini as Empire-Builder: Europe and Africa, 1932–36 (New York: Macmillan, 1977)
46. Renato Mori, Mussolini e la conquista dell Etiopia [Mussolini and the conquest of Ethiopia] (Florence: F. Le Monnier, 1978)
47. Denis Mack Smith, Mussolini's Roman Empire (New York: Viking, 1976)
48. Geoffrey Warner, Pierre Laval and the Eclipse of France (New York: Macmillan, 1969)
49. Franklin D. Laurens, France and the Italo-Ethiopian Crisis, 1935–1936 (The Hague: Mouton, 1967)
50. Nicholas Rostow, Anglo-French Relations, 1934–36 (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1984).
51. John Kenneth Galbraith, Ambassador's Journal: A Personal Account of the Kennedy Years (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1969), 270–295
52. Brij Mohan Kaul, The Untold Story (Bombay: Allied Publishers, 1967)
53. Michael Brecher, Nehru: A Political Biography (London: Oxford University Press, 1959)
54. Neville Maxwell, India's China War (Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1972), 236–242;
55. R.P. Rao, Portuguese Rule in Goa, 1510–1961 (Bombay: asia Publishing House, 1963).
56. Andreas Papandreou, Democracy at Gunpoint: The Greek Front (Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1970)
57. Rauf R. Denktash, The Cyprus Triangle (London: Allen &Unwin, 1982)
58. George W. Ball, The Past Has Another Pattern (New York: Norton, 1982), 350;
59. Thomas Ehrlich, Cyprus, 1958–1967
60. International Crises and the Role of Law (New York: Oxford University Press, 1974)
61. Sharon Wiener, Turkish Foreign Policy Decision-Making on the Cyprus Issue: A Comparative Analysis of Three Crises (Ph.D. diss., Duke University; Ann Arbor: University Microfilms, 1980).
62. Senator Mike Gravel, ed., The Pentagon Papers: The Defense Department History of United States Decisionmaking in Vietnam (Boston: Beacon Press, 1971), Vols. 2–4;
63. U.S. Congress, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, The U.S. Government and the Vietnam War: Executive Roles and Relationships, 1961–64 (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1984), 235–236
64. Executive Sessions of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Historical Series), Vol. 16 (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1988), 168–170
65. U.S. Congress, House Committee on Armed Services, United States Vietnam Relations, 1945–1967 (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1971) Books 3, 4, 5;
66. Leslie H. Gelb The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1979)
67. George Herring, America's Longest War: The United States and Vietnam, 1950–1975, 2nd ed. (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1986)
68. George McT. Kahin, Intervention: How America Became Involved in Vietnam (New York: Knopf, 1986).
69. U.S. Congress, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Executive Sessions of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Historical Series), vol. 16 (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1988), 118–19.
70. Nazi Conspiracy and Aggression, 8 vols. (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1946)
71. Norman H. Baynes, ed., The Speeches of Adolph Hitler, April 1922-August 1959, 2 vols. (London: Oxford University Press, 1942);
72. John Wheeler-Bennett, Munich: Prologue to Tragedy (New York: Viking, 1948)
73. Martin Gilbert and Richard Gott, The Appeasers (London: Weidenfeld &Nicolson, 1963)
74. Alan Bullock, Hitler: A Study in Tyranny, rev. ed. (New York: Harper & Row, 1964)
75. Muth K.G. Ronnefarth, Die Sudetenkrise in der internationalen Politik: Enstehung-Verlauf-Auswirkung, [The Sudeten crisis in international politics: Origin-course-result], (Wies-baden: F. Steiner), 2, 1961
76. Telford Taylor, Munich: The Price of Peace, 1979, (Garden City, NY: Doubleday)
77. Gerhard Weinberg, The Foreign Policy of Hitler's Germany, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press
78. Edouard Bonnefous, Histoire de la Troisiéme République[History of the Third Republic], vol. 6
79. Vers la guerre: du Front Populaire a la Conference de Munich, (1936–1938)[Toward the war: From the Popular Front to the Munich Conference], vol. 7 : La course vers l’abime: la fin de la Ille République 1938 – 1940 [The race toward the abyss: The end of the Third Republic] (Paris: Presses Universitaires, 1965, 1967 )
80. Keith Middlemas, The Strategy of Appeasement: The British Government and Germany, 1972)
81. Larry William Fuchser, Neville Chamberlain and Appeasement (New York: Norton, 1982
82. U.S. Congress, Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Security Arrangements and Commitments Abroad, 91st Congress, 1st sess. (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1970)
83. Roger Hilsman, To Move A Nation: The Politics of Foreign Policy in the Administration of John F. Kennedy (Garden City, NY: Doubleday, 1967)
84. Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., A Thousand Days: John F. Kennedy in the White House (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1965);
85. Theodore C. Sorensen, Kennedy (New York: Harper &Row, 1965)
86. Charles A. Stevenson, The End of Nowhere: American Policy Toward Laos Since 1954 (Boston: Beacon Press, 1972);
87. David Hall, “The Laotian War of 1961 and the Indo-Pakistan War of 1971,” in Barry Blechman and Stephen S. Kaplan, ed., Force Without War: U.S. Armed Forces as a Political Instrument (Washington, DC: Brookings, 1978)
88. Arthur J. Dommen, Conflict in Laos: The Politics of Neutralization (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1965)
89. R. Sean Randolph, The United States and Thailand: Alliance Dynamics, 1950–1985 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1986)
90. James Basche, Thailand: Land of the Free (New York: Taplinger, 1971)
91. Marek Thee, Notes of a Witness: Laos and the Second Indochina War (New York: Random House, 1973)
92. Adulyasak Soonthornrojana, “The Rise of United States-Thai Relations, 1945-1975” (Ph.D. diss., University of Akron, Akron, Ohio, 1986)
93. D. Gareth Porter, “After Geneva: Subverting Laotian Neutrality,” in Nina S. Adams and Alfred W. McCoy, eds., Laos: War and Revolution (New York: Harper, 1970), 179–212
94. G.M. Chittenden, “Laos and the Powers: 1954 1962” (Ph.D. diss., University of London), 1969.
95. U.S. Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States 1948, II, Germany and Austria’, Vol. III: Western Europe; Vol. IV: Eastern Europe: The Soviet Union (Washington, DC: G.P.O.), 1973, 1974.
96. U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, Documents on Germany, 1944 – 1959 (Washington, DC: G.P.O., 1959)
97. Dean Acheson, Present at the Creation: My Years in the State Department, (New York: Norton) 1969
98. Frank Howley, Berlin Command (New York: Putnam's, 1950)
99. Lucius D. Clay, Decision in Germany (New York: Doubleday, 1950)
100. George F. Kennan, Memoirs 1925, 1950, (Boston: Little, Brown); Truman (fn. 32); W. Phillips Davison, The Berlin Blockade: A Study in Cold War Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1958); George and Smoke (fn. 2), 107-39; Avi Shlaim, The United States and the Berlin Blockade, 1948–49 (Berkeley and Los Angeles : University of California Press), 1983
101. Richard K. Betts, Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance,(Washington, DC: Brookings), 1987, 23, 31