The Doomsday Equation and 50 years beyond: new perspectives on the human-water system

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water

Volumn 2, Issue 4, 2015, Pages 407-414

  Parolari, Anthony J ^a   Katul, Gabriel G ^b   Porporato, Amilcare ^b  

^a Duke University   (United States)

^b DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84971277861     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20491948     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/WAT2.1080     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Jevons WS. The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coalmines. 2nd ed. London: MacMillan and Co.; 1866.
2. Von Foerster H, Mora PM, Amiot LW. Dooms-day: friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026. Science 1960, 132:1291–1295. doi:10.1126/science.132.3436.1291.
3. Cohen JE. Population growth and Earth’s human carrying capacity. Science 1995, 269:341–346. doi:10.1126/science.7618100.
4. Wackernagel M, Schulz NB, Deumling D, Linares AC, Jenkins M, Kapos V, Monfreda C, Loh J, Myers N, Norgaard R, et al. Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2002, 99:9266–9271. doi:10.1073/pnas.142033699.
5. Rockstrom J, Steffen W, Noone K, Persson A, Chapin FS III, Lambin E, Lenton TM, Scheffer M, Folke C, Schellnhuber HJ, et al. Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecol Soc 2009, 14:32.
6. Gleick PH, Palaniappan M. Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2010, 107:11155–11162. doi:10.1073/pnas. 1004812107.
7. Kaack LH, Katul GG. Fifty years to prove Malthus right. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2013, 110:4161–4162. doi:10.1073/pnas.1301246110.
8. Johansen A, Sornette D. Finite-time singularity in the dynamics of the world population, economic and financial indices. Physica A 2001, 294:465–502. doi:10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00105-4.
9. Gleick PH. Water use. Annu Rev Environ Resour 2003, 28:275–314. doi:10.1146/annurev. energy.28.040202.122849.
10. Suweis S, Rinaldo A, Maritan A, D’Odorico P. Water-controlled wealth of nations. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2013, 110:4230–4233. doi:10.1073/pnas.1222452110.
11. Yukalov VI, Yukalova EP, Sornette D. Punctuated evolution due to delayed carrying capacity. Physica D 2009, 238:1752–1767. doi:10.1016/j.physd.2009.05.011.
12. Yukalov VI, Yukalova EP, Sornette D. Population dynamics with nonlinear delayed carrying capac-ity. Int J Bifurcat Chaos 2014, 24. doi:10.1142/S0218127414500217.
13. Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Helbing D, Kuhnert C, West GB. Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2007, 104:7301–7306. doi:10.1073/pnas.0610172104.
14. Brander JA, Taylor MS. The simple economics of Easter Island: a Ricardo-Malthus model of renewable resource use. Am Econ Rev 1998, 88:119–138.
15. Raupach MR. Dynamics of resource production and utilisation in two-component biosphere-human and terrestrial carbon systems. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 2007, 11:875–889. doi:10.5194/hess-11-875-2007.
16. Schlosser CA, Strzepek K, Gao X, Fant C, Blanc E, Paltsev S, Jacoby H, Reilly J, Gueneau A. The future of global water stress: an integrated assessment. Earth’s Future 2014, 2:341–361. doi:10.1002/2014 EF000238.
17. Shiklomanov IA. World water use and water availabil-ity. In: Shiklomanov IA, Rodda JC, eds. World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21st Century. Cam-bridge: Cambridge University Press; 2003.
18. Gleick PH, Ajami N, Christian-Smith J, Cooley H, Donnelly K, Fulton J, Ha M, Heberger M, Moore E, Morrison J, et al. The World’s Water, vol. 8. Island Press,: Washington, DC; 2013.
19. Postel SL, Daily GC, Ehrlich PR. Human appropriation of renewable fresh water. Science 1996, 271:785–788. doi:10.1126/science.271.5250.785.
20. Sornette D. Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes, and human birth. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2002, 99:2522–2529. doi:10.1073/pnas.022581999.
21. Cohen JE. How Many People Can the Earth Support? New York: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.; 1995.
22. Biswas AK. History of Hydrology. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company; 1970.
23. Tainter JA, Allen TFH, Hoekstra TW. Energy trans-formations and post-normal science. Energy 2006, 31:44–58. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2004.06.002.
24. Rodell M, Velicogna I, Famiglietti J. Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India. Nature 2009, 460:999–1002. doi:10.1038/nature08238.
25. Famiglietti JS, Rodell M. Water in the balance. Science 2013, 340:1300–1301. doi:10.1126/science1236460.
26. Feng X, Porporato A, Rodriguez-Iturbe I. Changes in rainfall seasonality in the tropics. Nat Clim Chang 2013, 3:811–815. doi:10.1038/nclimate1907.
27. Vorosmarty CJ, McIntyre PB, Gessner MO, Dudgeon D, Prusevich A, Green P, Glidden S, Bunn SE, Sullivan CA, Liermann CR, et al. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature 2010, 467:555–561. doi:10.1038/nature09440.
28. Zander AK, Elimelech M, Furukawa DH, Gleick P, Herd K, Jones KL, Rolchigo P, Sethi S, Tonner J, Vaux HJ, et al. Desalination: A national perspec-tive. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press; 2008.