메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 35, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 137-150

Adaptation Pathways and Real Options Analysis: An approach to deep uncertainty in climate change adaptation policies

Author keywords

Adaptation Pathways; Adaptive Policy Making; Climate change adaptation; Real Options Analysis; Uncertainty; Water policy

Indexed keywords


EID: 84969921534     PISSN: 14494035     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.polsoc.2016.05.002     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (140)

References (56)
  • 1
    • 85019301664 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Urban climate change resilience: A synopsis
    • Asian Development Bank Manila
    • ADB, Urban climate change resilience: A synopsis. 2014, Asian Development Bank, Manila.
    • (2014)
    • ADB1
  • 3
    • 85015692260 scopus 로고
    • The pricing of options and corporate liabilities
    • Black, F., Scholes, M., The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy 81 (1973), 637–654.
    • (1973) Journal of Political Economy , vol.81 , pp. 637-654
    • Black, F.1    Scholes, M.2
  • 4
    • 0003706382 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cost–benefit analysis: Concepts and practice
    • Pearson/Prentice Hall
    • Boardman, A.E., Greenberg, D.H., Vining, A.R., Weimer, D.L., Cost–benefit analysis: Concepts and practice. 2011, Pearson/Prentice Hall.
    • (2011)
    • Boardman, A.E.1    Greenberg, D.H.2    Vining, A.R.3    Weimer, D.L.4
  • 6
    • 81255163682 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ambiguity: The challenge of knowing and deciding together
    • Brugnach, M., Ingram, H., Ambiguity: The challenge of knowing and deciding together. Environmental Science & Policy 15 (2012), 60–71.
    • (2012) Environmental Science & Policy , vol.15 , pp. 60-71
    • Brugnach, M.1    Ingram, H.2
  • 7
    • 60349105217 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reducing risk through real options in systems design: The case of architecting a maritime domain protection system
    • Buurman, J., Zhang, S., Babovic, V., Reducing risk through real options in systems design: The case of architecting a maritime domain protection system. Risk Analysis 29 (2009), 366–379.
    • (2009) Risk Analysis , vol.29 , pp. 366-379
    • Buurman, J.1    Zhang, S.2    Babovic, V.3
  • 8
    • 84969864249 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Report on Key Conclusions and Recommendations of the Expert Panel on Drainage Design and Flood Protection Measures
    • Chan, E.S., Balmforth, D., Kan, Y.F., Koike, T., Lampe, L., Lim, K.K., et al. Report on Key Conclusions and Recommendations of the Expert Panel on Drainage Design and Flood Protection Measures., 2012.
    • (2012)
    • Chan, E.S.1    Balmforth, D.2    Kan, Y.F.3    Koike, T.4    Lampe, L.5    Lim, K.K.6
  • 9
    • 33749524841 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Resilience and flood risk management. A systems approach applied to lowland rivers
    • Delft University of Technology
    • De Bruijn, K.M., Resilience and flood risk management. A systems approach applied to lowland rivers. 2005, Delft University of Technology.
    • (2005)
    • De Bruijn, K.M.1
  • 10
    • 70350546463 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change: Integrated Assessment Modelling of Adaptation Costs and Benefits. OECD Environment Working Paper
    • OECD
    • De Bruin, K., Dellink, R., Agrawala, S., Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change: Integrated Assessment Modelling of Adaptation Costs and Benefits. OECD Environment Working Paper. 2009, OECD.
    • (2009)
    • De Bruin, K.1    Dellink, R.2    Agrawala, S.3
  • 11
    • 80455146478 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Flexibility in engineering design
    • MIT Press
    • De Neufville, R., Scholtes, S., Flexibility in engineering design. 2011, MIT Press.
    • (2011)
    • De Neufville, R.1    Scholtes, S.2
  • 13
    • 28244478523 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integrated management of natural resources: Dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames
    • Dewulf, A., Craps, M., Bouwen, R., Taillieu, T., Pahl-Wostl, C., Integrated management of natural resources: Dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames. Water Science and Technology 52 (2005), 115–124.
    • (2005) Water Science and Technology , vol.52 , pp. 115-124
    • Dewulf, A.1    Craps, M.2    Bouwen, R.3    Taillieu, T.4    Pahl-Wostl, C.5
  • 14
    • 79956269132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Creating usable science: Opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy
    • Dilling, L., Lemos, M.C., Creating usable science: Opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy. Global Environmental Change 21 (2011), 680–689.
    • (2011) Global Environmental Change , vol.21 , pp. 680-689
    • Dilling, L.1    Lemos, M.C.2
  • 15
    • 84892480854 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Notes on Applying ‘Real Options’ to Climate Change Adaptation Measures, with Examples from Vietnam. Crawford School Research Paper
    • Crawford School of Economics and Government
    • Dobes, L., Notes on Applying ‘Real Options’ to Climate Change Adaptation Measures, with Examples from Vietnam. Crawford School Research Paper. 2010, Crawford School of Economics and Government.
    • (2010)
    • Dobes, L.1
  • 16
    • 1642540849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A better understanding of why NPV undervalues managerial flexibility
    • Feinstein, S.P., Lander, D.M., A better understanding of why NPV undervalues managerial flexibility. Engineering Economist 47 (2002), 418–435.
    • (2002) Engineering Economist , vol.47 , pp. 418-435
    • Feinstein, S.P.1    Lander, D.M.2
  • 17
    • 84954499211 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty, Flexibility, Valuation & Design: How 21st Century Information & Knowledge Can Improve 21st Century Urban Development. ESD Working Paper Series
    • Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    • Geltner, D., De Neufville, R., Uncertainty, Flexibility, Valuation & Design: How 21st Century Information & Knowledge Can Improve 21st Century Urban Development. ESD Working Paper Series. 2012, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
    • (2012)
    • Geltner, D.1    De Neufville, R.2
  • 18
    • 84879760020 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How the failure to account for flexibility in the economic analysis of flood risk and coastal management strategies can result in maladaptive decisions
    • Gersonius, B., Morselt, T., Van Nieuwenhuijzen, L., Ashley, R., Zevenbergen, C., How the failure to account for flexibility in the economic analysis of flood risk and coastal management strategies can result in maladaptive decisions. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 138 (2011), 386–393.
    • (2011) Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering , vol.138 , pp. 386-393
    • Gersonius, B.1    Morselt, T.2    Van Nieuwenhuijzen, L.3    Ashley, R.4    Zevenbergen, C.5
  • 19
    • 84868681090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment
    • Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E.V., Deursen, W.P.A.V., Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115 (2012), 795–819.
    • (2012) Climatic Change , vol.115 , pp. 795-819
    • Haasnoot, M.1    Middelkoop, H.2    Offermans, A.3    Beek, E.V.4    Deursen, W.P.A.V.5
  • 20
    • 84878015971 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world
    • Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., Ter Maat, J., Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Global Environmental Change 23 (2013), 485–498.
    • (2013) Global Environmental Change , vol.23 , pp. 485-498
    • Haasnoot, M.1    Kwakkel, J.H.2    Walker, W.E.3    Ter Maat, J.4
  • 21
    • 67349272009 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change
    • Hallegatte, S., Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Global Environmental Change 19 (2009), 240–247.
    • (2009) Global Environmental Change , vol.19 , pp. 240-247
    • Hallegatte, S.1
  • 22
    • 84865032069 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Computational decision analysis for flood risk management in an uncertain future
    • Harvey, H., Hall, J.W., Peppe, R., Computational decision analysis for flood risk management in an uncertain future. Journal of Hydroinformatics 14 (2012), 537–561.
    • (2012) Journal of Hydroinformatics , vol.14 , pp. 537-561
    • Harvey, H.1    Hall, J.W.2    Peppe, R.3
  • 23
    • 0000490093 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Guest editorial: Treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems
    • Helton, J.C., Burmaster, D.E., Guest editorial: Treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 54 (1996), 91–94.
    • (1996) Reliability Engineering & System Safety , vol.54 , pp. 91-94
    • Helton, J.C.1    Burmaster, D.E.2
  • 25
    • 84895416415 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile
    • Jeuland, M., Whittington, D., Water resources planning under climate change: Assessing the robustness of real options for the Blue Nile. Water Resources Research 50 (2014), 2086–2107.
    • (2014) Water Resources Research , vol.50 , pp. 2086-2107
    • Jeuland, M.1    Whittington, D.2
  • 26
    • 56949085602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?
    • Kiureghian, A.D., Ditlevsen, O., Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?. Structural Safety 31 (2009), 105–112.
    • (2009) Structural Safety , vol.31 , pp. 105-112
    • Kiureghian, A.D.1    Ditlevsen, O.2
  • 32
    • 33846127612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using binomial decision trees to solve real-option valuation problems
    • Luiz, E.B., Dyer, J.S., Hahn, W.J., Using binomial decision trees to solve real-option valuation problems. Decision Analysis 2 (2005), 69–88.
    • (2005) Decision Analysis , vol.2 , pp. 69-88
    • Luiz, E.B.1    Dyer, J.S.2    Hahn, W.J.3
  • 34
    • 49449125071 scopus 로고
    • Determinants of corporate borrowing
    • Myers, S.C., Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics 5 (1977), 147–175.
    • (1977) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.5 , pp. 147-175
    • Myers, S.C.1
  • 35
    • 84865772470 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change & Singapore: Challenges. Opportunities. Partnerships
    • National Climate Change Secretariat, Prime Minister's Office Singapore
    • NCCS, Climate change & Singapore: Challenges. Opportunities. Partnerships. 2012, National Climate Change Secretariat, Prime Minister's Office, Singapore.
    • (2012)
    • NCCS1
  • 36
    • 84892485759 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Valuation of drainage infrastructure improvement under climate change using real options
    • Park, T., Kim, C., Kim, H., Valuation of drainage infrastructure improvement under climate change using real options. Water Resources Management 28 (2014), 445–457.
    • (2014) Water Resources Management , vol.28 , pp. 445-457
    • Park, T.1    Kim, C.2    Kim, H.3
  • 37
    • 84868629132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How do you adapt in an uncertain world? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 project
    • World Resources Institute Washington, DC
    • Reeder, T., Ranger, N., How do you adapt in an uncertain world? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 project. 2011, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.
    • (2011)
    • Reeder, T.1    Ranger, N.2
  • 39
    • 84924111285 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A strategy-based framework for assessing the flood resilience of cities – A Hamburg case study
    • Restemeyer, B., Woltjer, J., Van Den Brink, M., A strategy-based framework for assessing the flood resilience of cities – A Hamburg case study. Planning Theory & Practice 16 (2015), 45–62.
    • (2015) Planning Theory & Practice , vol.16 , pp. 45-62
    • Restemeyer, B.1    Woltjer, J.2    Van Den Brink, M.3
  • 41
    • 0034081216 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability
    • Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R.T., Wandel, J., An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability. Climatic Change 45 (2000), 223–251.
    • (2000) Climatic Change , vol.45 , pp. 223-251
    • Smit, B.1    Burton, I.2    Klein, R.T.3    Wandel, J.4
  • 43
    • 33845877352 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The economics of climate change [Online]
    • Cambridge University Press (Accessed)
    • Stern, N., The economics of climate change [Online]. 2007, Cambridge University Press (Accessed).
    • (2007)
    • Stern, N.1
  • 44
    • 3242775630 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The problem of the future: Sustainability science and scenario analysis
    • Swart, R.J., Raskin, P., Robinson, J., The problem of the future: Sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change 14 (2004), 137–146.
    • (2004) Global Environmental Change , vol.14 , pp. 137-146
    • Swart, R.J.1    Raskin, P.2    Robinson, J.3
  • 45
    • 34548568292 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable
    • Random House New York
    • Taleb, N.N., The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. 2007, Random House, New York.
    • (2007)
    • Taleb, N.N.1
  • 46
    • 84917192103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Singapore water story: Sustainable development in an urban city-state
    • Oxford Routledge
    • Tortajada, C., Joshi, J., Biswas, A.K., The Singapore water story: Sustainable development in an urban city-state. 2013, Oxford, Routledge.
    • (2013)
    • Tortajada, C.1    Joshi, J.2    Biswas, A.K.3
  • 47
    • 43449090340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investment and financial flows to address climate change
    • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Bonn
    • UNFCCC, Investment and financial flows to address climate change. 2007, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bonn.
    • (2007)
    • UNFCCC1
  • 50
    • 77953807304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies: Introduction to section 2
    • Walker, W., Marchau, V., Swanson, D., Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies: Introduction to section 2. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77 (2010), 917–923.
    • (2010) Technological Forecasting and Social Change , vol.77 , pp. 917-923
    • Walker, W.1    Marchau, V.2    Swanson, D.3
  • 51
    • 84879306495 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adapt or perish: A review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty
    • Walker, W., Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J., Adapt or perish: A review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty. Sustainability 5 (2013), 955–979.
    • (2013) Sustainability , vol.5 , pp. 955-979
    • Walker, W.1    Haasnoot, M.2    Kwakkel, J.3
  • 54
    • 78651271816 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economics of adaptation to climate change – Synthesis report
    • World Bank Washington, DC
    • World Bank, Economics of adaptation to climate change – Synthesis report. 2010, World Bank, Washington, DC.
    • (2010)
    • World Bank1
  • 55
    • 79951515283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An evolutionary real options framework for the design and management of projects and systems with complex real options and exercising conditions
    • Zhang, S.X., Babovic, V., An evolutionary real options framework for the design and management of projects and systems with complex real options and exercising conditions. Decision Support Systems 51 (2011), 119–129.
    • (2011) Decision Support Systems , vol.51 , pp. 119-129
    • Zhang, S.X.1    Babovic, V.2
  • 56
    • 84864979732 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A real options approach to the design and architecture of water supply systems using innovative water technologies under uncertainty
    • Zhang, S.X., Babovic, V., A real options approach to the design and architecture of water supply systems using innovative water technologies under uncertainty. Journal of Hydroinformatics 14 (2012), 13–29.
    • (2012) Journal of Hydroinformatics , vol.14 , pp. 13-29
    • Zhang, S.X.1    Babovic, V.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.