A new relation between prevalence and incidence of a chronic disease

Mathematical Medicine and Biology

Volumn 32, Issue 4, 2015, Pages 425-435

  Brinks, Ralph ^a   Landwehr, Sandra ^a  

^a LEIBNIZ CENTER FOR DIABETES RESEARCH AT HEINRICH HEINE UNIVERSITY DÜSSELDORF   (Germany)

Author keywords

Chronic diseases; Compartment models; Dementia; Incidence; Mortality; Prevalence

Indexed keywords

ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS;

CHRONIC DISEASE; COMPARTMENT MODELING; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY; FOLLOW-UP STUDIES; INCIDENCE; INCIDENCE RATE; MORTALITY; NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; PREVALENCE; TIME-DEPENDENT MODELS;

NEURODEGENERATIVE DISEASES;

CHRONIC DISEASE; DEMENTIA; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; MORTALITY; PREVALENCE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL;

CHRONIC DISEASE; DATA INTERPRETATION, STATISTICAL; DEMENTIA; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PREVALENCE;

EID: 84965031164     PISSN: 14778599     EISSN: 14778602     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqu024     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Barendregt, J. J., Van Oortmarssen, G. J., Vos, T. & Murray, C. J. (2003) A generic model for the assessment of disease epidemiology: he computational basis of DisMod II. Popul. Health Metr., 1, 4.
2. Bernatsky, S., Boivin, J. F., Joseph, L., Manzi, S., Ginzler, E., Gladman, D. D., Urowitz, M., Fortin, P. R., Petri, M., Barr, S., Gordon, C., Bae, S. C., Isenberg, D., Zoma, A., Aranow, C., Dooley, M. A., Nived, O., Sturfelt, G., Steinsson, K., Alarcn, G., Sencal, J. L., Zummer, M., Hanly, J., Ensworth, S., Pope, J., Edworthy, S., Rahman, A., Sibley, J., El-Gabalawy, H., McCarthy, T., St Pierre, Y., Clarke, A. & Ramsey-Goldman, R. (2006) Mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus. Arth. Rheumat., 54, 2550-2557.
3. Brauer, F. (2005) The Kermack-McKendrick epidemic model revisited. Math. Biosci., 198, 119-131.
4. Brinks, R. & Landwehr, S. (2014) Age- and time-dependent model of the prevalence of non-communicable diseases and application to dementia in Germany. Theor. Popul. Biol., 92, 62-68.
5. Brinks, R., Landwehr, S., Icks, A., Koch, M. & Giani, G. (2013) Deriving age-specific incidence from prevalence with an ordinary differential equation. Statist. Med., 32, 2070-2078.
6. Brunet, R. C. & Struchiner, C. J. (1999) A non-parametric method for the reconstruction of age- and time-dependent incidence from the prevalence data of irreversible diseases with differential mortality. Theor. Popul. Biol., 56, 76-90.
7. Carstensen, B., Kristensen, J. K., Ottosen, P. & Borch-Johnsen Steering Group of the National Diabetes Register, K. (2008) The Danish National Diabetes Register: trends in incidence, prevalence and mortality. Diabetology, 51, 2187-2196.
8. Dahlquist, G. & Björck, A. (1974) Numerical Methods. New Jersey: Prentice Hall, pp. 292-294.
9. Federal Statistical Office of Germany (2011) Lifetables for Germany 1896-2009 [Generationensterbetafeln für Deutschland 1896-2009] Wiesbaden, available at https://www.destatis.de/ (last accessed January 28, 2014).
10. Fix, E. & Neyman, J. (1951) A simple stochastic model of recovery, relapse, death and loss of patients. Hum. Biol., 23, 205-241.
11. Keiding, N. (1991) Age-specific incidence and prevalence: a statistical perspective. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. A, 154, 371-412.
12. Keiding, N. (2006) Event history analysis and the cross-section. Statist. Med., 25, 2343-2364.
13. Keiding, N. (2011) Age-period-cohort analysis in the 1870s: Diagrams, sterograms, and the basic differential equation. Cand. J. Statist., 39, 405-420.
14. Kirkwood, B. R. & Sterne, J. A. C. (2003) Essential Medical Statistics, 2nd edn. Malden, MA: Blackwell, pp. 451-452.
15. Lozano, R. et al (2012) Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet, 380, 2095-2128.
16. Murray, C. J. L. & Lopez, A. D. (1994) Quantifying disability: data, methods and results. Bulletin WHO, 72, 481-494.
17. Murray, C. J. L. & Lopez, A. D. (1996) Global and regional descriptive epidemiology of disability: incidence, prevalence, health expectancies and years lived with disability. The Global Burden of Disease (C. J. L. Murray and A. D. Lopez, eds). Boston: Harvard School of Public Health, pp. 201-246.
18. Putter, H., Fiocco, M. & Geskus, R. B. (2007) Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models. Statist. Med., 26, 2389-2430.
19. Qiu, C., Kivipelta, M. & von Strauss, E. (2009) Epidemiology of Alzheimer's disease: occurrence, determinants, and strategies toward intervention. Dialogues Clin. Neurosci., 11, 111-128.
20. Rait, G., Walters, K., Bottomley, C., Petersen, I., Iliffe, S. & Nazareth, I. (2010) Survival of people with clinical diagnosis of dementia in primary care: cohort study. BMJ, 341, C3584.
21. Ziegler, U. & Doblhammer, G. (2009) Prevalence and incidence of dementia in Germany-a study based on data from the public sick funds in 2002. Gesundheitswesen, 71, 281-290.