Negative global phosphorus budgets challenge sustainable intensification of grasslands

Nature Communications

Volumn 7, Issue , 2016, Pages

  Sattari, S Z ^a,e   Bouwman, A F ^b,c   Martinez Rodriguez R ^a,d   Beusen, A H W ^b,c   Van Ittersum, M K ^a  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^c PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

^d FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS   (Italy)

^e ROTHAMSTED RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ORGANIC FERTILIZER; PHOSPHORUS; FERTILIZER; SOIL;

BIOFERTILIZER; FERTILIZER APPLICATION; FODDER; FOOD SECURITY; GRASSLAND; INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE; PHOSPHORUS CYCLE; PRODUCTIVITY; SUSTAINABILITY;

ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION; CROPLAND; GRASS; GRASSLAND; GRAZING; MANURE; NONHUMAN; NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT; SOIL; ANIMAL; CHEMISTRY; LIVESTOCK; PHYSIOLOGY;

ANIMALIA;

ANIMALS; FERTILIZERS; GRASSLAND; LIVESTOCK; PHOSPHORUS; SOIL;

EID: 84963819500     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10696     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Tilman, D., Cassman, K. G., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R. & Polasky, S. Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature 418, 671-677 (2002).
2. Mueller, N. D. et al. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management. Nature 490, 254-257 (2012).
3. Tilman, D., Balzer, C., Hill, J. & Befort, B. L. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 20260-20264 (2011).
4. Bouwman, A. F. et al. Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production over the 1900-2050 period. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 20882-20887 (2013).
5. Godfray, H. C. J. et al. Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327, 812 (2010).
6. Kastner, T., Rivas, M. J. I., Koch, W. & Nonhebel, S. Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 6868-6872 (2012).
7. Koning, N. B. J. et al. Long-term global availability of food: continued abundance or new scarcity? Neth. J. Agric. Sci. 55, 229-292 (2008).
8. Steinfeld, H. et al. Livestock's Long Shadow-Environmental Issues and Options (FAO, 2006).
9. Foley, J. A. et al. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 478, 337-342 (2011).
10. Suttie, J. M., Reynolds, S. G. & Batello, C. Grasslands of the World (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2005).
11. West, P. C. et al. Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment. Science 345, 325-328 (2014).
12. Cordell, D. & Neset, T.-S. Phosphorus vulnerability: a qualitative framework for assessing the vulnerability of national and regional food systems to the multi-dimensional stressors of phosphorus scarcity. Global Environ. Change 24, 108-122 (2014).
13. Sattari, S. Z., van Ittersum, M. K., Bouwman, A. F., Smit, A. L. & Janssen, B. H. Crop yield response to soil fertility and N, P, K inputs in different environments: testing and improving the QUEFTS model. Field Crops Res. 157, 35-46 (2014).
14. Syers, J. K., Johnston, A. E. & Curtin, D. Efficiency of Soil and Fertilizer Phosphorus Use: Reconciling Changing Concepts of Soil Phosphorus Behaviour with Agronomic Information 1-110 (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2008).
15. Sattari, S. Z., Bouwman, A. F., Giller, K. E. & Van Ittersum, M. K. Residual soil phosphorus as the missing piece in the global phosphorus crisis puzzle. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 6348-6353 (2012).
16. Vitousek, P. M. et al. Nutrient imbalances in agricultural development. Science 324, 1519-1520 (2009).
17. Cordell, D., Jackson, M. & White, S. Phosphorus flows through the Australian food system: identifying intervention points as a roadmap to phosphorus security. Environ. Sci. Policy 29, 87-102 (2013).
18. Cooper, J. & Carliell-Marquet, C. A substance flow analysis of phosphorus in the UK food production and consumption system. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 74, 82-100 (2013).
19. Antikainen, R. et al. Stocks and flows of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Finnish food production and consumption system. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 107, 287-305 (2005).
20. MacDonald, G. K., Bennett, E. M. & Carpenter, S. R. Embodied phosphorus and the global connections of United States agriculture. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 044024 (13PP) (2012).
21. van Vuuren, D., Bouwman, A. F. & Lyon, S. Roads from Rio+20: Pathways to Achieve Global Sustainability Goals by 2050-Summary and Main Findings to the Full Report (PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2012).
22. FAO. Production/Crops and Resource/Fertilizer. FAOSTAT database Collections (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2014) http://faostat.fao.org/.
23. Bouwman, A., Van der Hoek, K., Eickhout, B. & Soenario, I. Exploring changes in world ruminant production systems. Agric. Syst. 84, 121-153 (2005).
24. Chen, M., Chen, J. & Sun, F. Agricultural phosphorus flow and its environmental impacts in China. Sci. Total Environ. 405, 140-152 (2008).
25. Sattari, S. Z., van Ittersum, M. K., Giller, K. E., Zhang, F. & Bouwman, A. F. Key role of China and its agriculture in global sustainable phosphorus management. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 054003 (2014).
26. Smil, V. Phosphorus in the environment: natural flows and human interferences. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 25, 25-53 (2000).
27. Janssen, B. H. Efficient use of nutrients: an art of balancing. Field Crops Res. 56, 197-201 (1998).
28. Alcamo, J., Van Vuuren, D. & Cramer, W. in Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing: Scenarios Vol. 2 (eds Carpenter, S.R., Pingali, P.L., Bennett, E.M. & Zurek, M.B.) 279-354 (Island Press, 2006).
29. Eurostat. European Commission. Your key to European Statistics, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Accessed on March 2015.
30. USDA. National Agricultural Statistics Service. Quick Stats ftp://ftp.nass.usda.gov/quickstats/(retrieved on 21 March 2015).
31. Yang, X., Post, W. M., Thornton, P. E. & Jain, A. The distribution of soil phosphorus for global biogeochemical modeling. Biogeosci. Discuss. 9, 16347-16380 (2012).
32. Seré, C. & Steinfeld, H. World Livestock Production Systems. Current Status, Issues and Trends (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1996).
33. Stehfest, E., Van Vuuren, D. P., Kram, T. & Bouwman, A. F. Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change with IMAGE 3.0. Model description and policy applications. 366 p. (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, also available as pdf from http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/integrated-assessment-of-global-environmental-change-with- IMAGE-3.0, 2014).
34. FAO/IFA/IFDC. Fertilizer use by crop 4th edn (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/International Fertilizer Industry Association/International Fertilizer Development Center, 1999).
35. IFA/IFDC/FAO. Fertilizer Use by Crop 5th edn (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2003).
36. Kempster, T., Cuthbertson, A. & Harrington, G. Carcase Evaluation in Livestock Breeding, Production and Marketing (Granada, 1982).
37. Midwest Plan Service. Livestock Waste Facilities Handbook 2nd edn (Iowa State University, 1985).
38. Sheldrick, W., Syers, J. K. & Lingard, J. Contribution of livestock excreta to nutrient balances. Nutr. Cycling Agroecosyst. 66, 119-131 (2003).
39. Smith, L. W. in Handbook of Animal Science (ed Putnam, P. A.) 280-291 (Academic, 1991).
40. Van Horn, H. H., Newton, G. L. & Kunkle, W. E. Ruminant nutrition from an environmental perspective: factors affecting whole-farm nutrient balance. J. Anim. Sci. 74, 3082-3102 (1996).
41. Wilkerson, V. A., Mertens, D. R. & Casper, D. P. Prediction of excretion of manure and nitrogen by Holstein dairy cattle. J. Dairy Sci. 80, 3193-3204 (1997).
42. Beusen, A. H. W., Van Beek, L. P. H., Bouwman, A. F., Mogollón, J. M. & Middelburg, J. J. Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water. Description of IMAGE-GNM and analysis of performance. Geoscientific Model Development 8, 4045-4067 doi:4010.5194/gmd-4048-4045-2015 (http://www.geosci-modeldev. net/4048/4045/2015/) (2015).
43. Hart, M. R., Quin, B. F. & Nguyen, M. L. Phosphorus runoff from agricultural land and direct fertilizer effects: A review. J. Environ. Qual. 33, 1954-1972 (2004).
44. McDowell, R. W. & Sharpley, A. N. Approximating phosphorus release from soils to surface runoff and subsurface drainage. J. Environ. Qual. 30, 508-520 (2001).
45. Tarkalson, D. D. & Mikkelsen, R. L. Runoff phosphorus losses as related to soil test phosphorus and degree of phosphorus saturation on Piedmont soils under conventional and no-tillage. Commun. Soil Sci. Plant Anal. 35, 2987-3007 (2004).
46. Cerdan, O. et al. Rates and spatial variations of soil erosion in Europe: a study based on erosion plot data. Geomorphology 122, 167-177 (2010).
47. Bogena, H., Kunkel, R., Schobel, T., Schrey, H. P. & Wendland, F. Distributed modeling of groundwater recharge at the macroscale. Ecol. Model. 187, 15-26 (2005).
48. Velthof, G. L. et al. Integrated assessment of nitrogen losses from agriculture in EU-27 using MITERRA-EUROPE. J. Environ. Qual. 38, 402-417 (2009).
49. Velthof, G. L., Oudendag, D. A. & Oenema, O. Development and Application of the Integrated Nitrogen Model MITERRA-EUROPE 102 (Alterra, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands; EuroCare, University of Bonn, Germany; ASG, Wageningen UR, The Netherlands, Wageningen, 2007).
50. Yang, Z., Post, W. M., Thornton, P. E. & Jain, A. The distribution of soil phosphorus for global biogeochemical modeling. Biogeosciences 10, 2525-2537 (2010).
51. Liu, Y. The Human Intensified Global Phosphorus Flows and Environmental Impacts. Report No. IR-06-081, 25 (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 2006).
52. Liu, Y., Villalba, G., Ayres, R. U. & Schroder, H. Global phosphorus flows and environmental impacts from a consumption perspective. J. Ind. Ecol. 12, 229-247 (2008).
53. Liu, M., Yu, Z., Liu, Y. & Konijn, N. T. Fertilizer requirements for wheat and maize in China: the QUEFTS approach. Nutr. Cycling Agroecosyst. 74, 245-258 (2006).
54. OECD. OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction. 350 (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2012).
55. Nakicenovic, N. et al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000).
56. Wolf, J., De Wit, C. T., Janssen, B. H. & Lathwell, D. J. Modeling long-term crop response to fertilizer phosphorus. I. The model. Agron. J. 79, 445-451 (1987).
57. Van Ittersum, M. & Rabbinge, R. Concepts in production ecology for analysis and quantification of agricultural input-output combinations. Field Crops Res. 52, 197-208 (1997).
58. Saltelli, A., Chan, K. & Scott, E. M. Sensitivity Analysis (Wiley, 2000).
59. Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Campolongo, F. & Ratto, M. Sensitivity Analysis in Practice. A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models (Wiley, 2004).
60. IPCC. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC NGGIP Programme, IPCC-TSU/IGES). Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Hayama, Japan on behalf of the IPCC, Hayama, Japan, 2006.