Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth's climate sensitivity

Nature Geoscience

Volumn 9, Issue 4, 2016, Pages 286-289

  Storelvmo, T ^a   Leirvik, T ^b   Lohmann, U ^c   Phillips, P C B ^a   Wild, M ^c  

^a YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NORD UNIVERSITY   (Norway)

^c ETH Zurich   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AEROSOL; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CONDITIONS; CLIMATE MODELING; CONCENTRATION (COMPOSITION); COOLING; EARTH; ENERGY BALANCE; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GREENHOUSE GAS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TREND ANALYSIS; WARMING;

EID: 84963582675     PISSN: 17520894     EISSN: 17520908     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2670     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 12, 1029-1136 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
2. Otto, A. et al. Energy budget constraints on climate response. Nature Geosci. 6, 415-416 (2013).
3. Lewis, N. & Curry, J. The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates. Clim. Dynam. 45, 1009-1023 (2015).
4. Allen, M. R. & Frame, D. J. Call off the quest. Science 318, 582-583 (2007).
5. Padilla, L. E., Vallis, G. K. & Rowley, C.W. Probabilistic estimates of transient climate sensitivity subject to uncertainty in forcing and natural variability. J. Clim. 24, 5521-5537 (2011).
6. Wild, M. Enlightening global dimming and brightening. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 27-37 (2012).
7. Wild, M. Global dimming and brightening: a review. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D00D16 (2009).
8. Myhre, G. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 8, 659-740 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
9. Norris, J. R. &Wild, M. Trends in aerosol radiative effects over Europe inferred from observed cloud cover, solar "dimming" and solar "brightening". J. Geophys. Res. 112, D08214 (2007).
10. Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D. & Cox, P. M. Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future. Nature 435, 1187-1190 (2005).
11. Lohmann, U. et al. Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation? Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 3235-3246 (2010).
12. Kiehl, J. T. Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L22710 (2007).
13. Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J. & Lister, D. H. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - The CRU TS3.10 Dataset. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 623-642 (2014).
14. Hofmann, D. J. et al. The role of carbon dioxide in climate forcing from 1979 to 2004: introduction of the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index. Tellus B 58, 614-619 (2006).
15. Gilgen, H. & Ohmura, A. The global energy balance archive. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 831-850 (1999).
16. Arellano, M. & Bond, S. Some tests of specification for panel Data-Monte-Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Rev. Econ. Stud. 58, 277-297 (1991).
17. Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H., Mann, M. L. & Stock, J. H. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 11790-11793 (2011).
18. Bindoff, N. L. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 10, 867-952 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
19. Wild, M., Ohmura, A. & Makowski, K. Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L04702 (2007).
20. Shindell, D. T. Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity. Nature Clim. Change 4, 274-277 (2014).
21. Hartmann, D. L. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 2, 159-254 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
22. Meinshausen, M. et al. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C. Nature 458, 1158-U1196 (2009).
23. Rogelj, J. et al. Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 degrees C. Nature Clim. Change 5, 519-527 (2015).
24. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. X. & Trenberth, K. E. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Clim. Change 1, 360-364 (2011).
25. Santer, B. D. et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geosci. 7, 185-189 (2014).
26. Skeie, R. B., Berntsen, T., Aldrin, M., Holden, M. & Myhre, G. A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series. Earth Syst. Dynam. 5, 139-175 (2014).
27. Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S. P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501, 403-407 (2013).
28. Klimont, Z., Smith, S. J. & Cofala, J. The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000-2011 emissions. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 014003 (2013).
29. Smith, S. J. et al. Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850-2005. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1101-1116 (2011).
30. Magnus, J. R., Melenberg, B. & Muris, C. Global warming and local dimming: the statistical evidence. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 106, 452-464 (2011).
31. Phillips, P. C. B. HalbertWhite Jr. Memorial JFEC Lecture: pitfalls and possibilities in predictive regression. J. Financ. Economet. 13, 521-555 (2015).
32. Phillips, P. C. B. Time-series regression with a unit-root. Econometrica 55, 277-301 (1987).
33. Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H. & Stock, J. H. Emissions, concentrations, temperature: a time series analysis. Climatic Change 77, 249-278 (2006).
34. Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H. & Stock, J. H. The relationship between radiative forcing and temperature: what do statistical analyses of the instrumental temperature record measure? Climatic Change 77, 279-289 (2006).
35. Said, S. E. & Dickey, D. A. Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order. Biometrika 71, 599-607 (1984).
36. Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. Testing for a unit-root in time-series regression. Biometrika 75, 335-346 (1988).
37. Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B. & Schmidt, P. Testing for stationarity in the components representation of a time-series. Economet. Theor. 8, 586-591 (1992).
38. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C.W. J. Cointegration and error Correction-representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica 55, 251-276 (1987).
39. Phillips, P. C. B. &Moon, H. R. Linear regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data. Econometrica 67, 1057-1111 (1999).
40. Phillips, P. C. B. & Ouliaris, S. Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for cointegration. Econometrica 58, 165-193 (1990).
41. Mackinnon, J. G. Approximate asymptotic-distribution functions for unit-root and cointegration tests. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 12, 167-176 (1994).
42. Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H., Mann, M. L. & Stock, J. H. Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms. Climatic Change 118, 729-743 (2013).
43. Schneider, T., Bischoff, T. & Haug, G. H. Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone. Nature 513, 45-53 (2014).
44. Phillips, P. C. B. & Loretan, M. Estimating long-run economic equilibria. Rev. Econ. Stud. 58, 407-436 (1991).
45. Saikkonen, P. Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Economet. Theor. 7, 1-21 (1991).
46. Stock, J. H. &Watson, M.W. A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher-order integrated systems. Econometrica 61, 783-820 (1993).