Predicting and evaluating the epidemic trend of Ebola virus disease in the 2014-2015 outbreak and the effects of intervention measures

PLoS ONE

Volumn 11, Issue 4, 2016, Pages

  Guo, Zuiyuan ^a   Xiao, Dan ^b   Li, Dongli ^a   Wang, Xiuhong ^a   Wang, Yayu ^a   Yan, Tiecheng ^a   Wang, Zhiqi ^c  

^a Laboratory of Military Health in Cold Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shenyang Military Region   (China)

^b FOURTH MILITARY MEDICAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c SHENYANG JIANZHU UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; ARTICLE; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; COMPARTMENT MODEL; CONDOM USE; EARLY DIAGNOSIS; EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER; EPIDEMIC; INFECTION CONTROL; MORTALITY; PATIENT MONITORING; PREDICTION; TREND STUDY; VACCINATION; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HUMAN; THEORETICAL MODEL;

VIRUS VACCINE;

AFRICA, WESTERN; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; VIRAL VACCINES;

EID: 84962895419     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152438     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Cenciarelli O, Pietropaoli S, Malizia A, Carestia M, D'Amico F, Sassolini A, et al. Ebola virus disease 2013-2014 outbreak in west Africa: an analysis of the epidemic spread and response. Int J Microbiol. In press 2015.
2. Carroll MW, Matthews DA, Hiscox JA, Elmore MJ, Pollakis G, Rambaut A, et al. Temporal and spatial analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa. Nature. In press 2015.
3. WHO. Ebola Response Team. Ebola virus disease in West Africa-the first 9 monthsofthe epidemic and forward projections. N EnglJ Med. 2014;371(16):1481-1495. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1411100 PMID: 25244186
4. Van Kerkhove MD, Bento AI, Mills HL, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA. A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making. Sci Data. In press 2015.
5. Fauci AS. Ebola-underscoring the global disparities in healthcare resources. N EnglJ Med. 2014;371(12):1084-1086. doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1409494 PMID: 25119491
6. Chertow DS, Kleine C, Edwards JK, Scaini R, Giuliani R, Sprecher A. Ebola virus disease in West Africa-clinical manifestations and management. N Engl J Med. 2014;371(22):2054-2057. doi: 10. 1056/NEJMp1413084 PMID: 25372854
7. Matua GA, Van DM, Locsin RC. Ebola virus and haemorrhagic syndrome. Sultan Qaboos Univ Med J. 2015;15(2):E171-176. PMID: 26052448
8. WHO. Ebola Response Team. West African Ebola epidemic after one year-slowing but not yet under control. N EnglJ Med. 2015;372(6):584-587. doi: 10.1056/NEJMc1414992 PMID: 25539446
9. Baize S, Pannetier D, Oestereich L, Rieger T, Koivogui L, Magassouba N, et al. Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea-preliminary report. N EnglJ Med. 2014;371(15):1418-1425. doi: 10. 1056/NEJMoa1404505 PMID: 24738640
10. Breman JG, Johnson KM. Ebola then and now. N EnglJ Med. 2014;371(18):1663-1666. doi: 10. 1056/NEJMp1410540 PMID: 25207624
11. Farrar JJ, Piot P. The Ebola emergency-immediate action, ongoing strategy. N Engl J Med. 2014;371(16):1545-1546. doi: 10.1056/NEJMe1411471 PMID: 25244185
12. Kouadio KI, Clement P, Bolongei J, Tamba A, Gasasira AN, Warsame A, et al. Epidemiological and surveillance response to Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Lofa County, Liberia (March-September, 2014); Lessons Learned. PLoS Curr. In press 2015.
13. Siettos C, Anastassopoulou C, Russo L, Grigoras C, Mylonakis E. Modeling the 2014 Ebola virus epidemic-agent-based simulations, temporal analysis and future predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone. PLoSCurr. In press 2015.
14. McLeod RG, Brewster JF, Gumel AB, Slonowsky DA. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for a SARS model with time-varying inputs and outputs. Math Biosci Eng. 2006;3(3):527-544. PMID: 20210378
15. Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore PW, Kribs-Zaleta CM, Arriola L, Hyman JM. Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10(7):1258-1263. PMID: 15324546
16. Sitong L, Litao H, Hongyan L, Zhi D, Qian T, Kaveh K, et al. Evaluating the impact of test-and-treat on the HIV epidemic among MSM in China using a mathematical model. PLoSOne. 2015;10(6):E0126893. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0126893 PMID: 26039075
17. Seidu B, Makinde OD, Seini IY. Mathematical analysis of the effects of HIV-Malaria co-infection on workplace productivity. Acta Biotheor. 2015;63(2):151-182. doi: 10.1007/s10441-015-9255-y PMID: 25980477
18. Endo A, Nishiura H. Transmission dynamics ofvivax malaria in the republic of Korea: Effectiveness of anti-malarial mass chemoprophylaxis. JTheorBiol. 2015;380(Suppl 1):499-505.
19. Lekone PE, Finkenstädt BF. Statistical inference in a stochastic epidemic SEIR model with control intervention: Ebola as a case study. Biometrics. 2006;62(4):1170-1177. PMID: 17156292
20. World Health Organization. Ebola Situation Reports. Available: http://apps.who.int/Ebola/Ebolasituation-reports. Published Apr. 1, 2015. Accessed Jul. 15 2015.
21. Christie A, Davies-Wayne GJ, Cordier-Lasalle T, Blackley DJ, Laney AS, Williams DE, et al. Possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus-liberia. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2015;64(17):479-481. PMID: 25950255
22. Althaus CL. Estimating the reproduction number of Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa. PLOS Curr. In press 2015.
23. Fisman D, Tuite A. Projected impact of vaccination timing and dose availability on the course of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic. PLoSCurr. In press 2015.
24. Luo T, Sumi A, Zhou D, Kamo K, Yu B, Zhao D, et al. Study on the effect of measles control programmes on periodic structures of disease epidemics in a large Chinese city. Epidemiol Infect. 2011;139(2):257-264. doi: 10.1017/S0950268810001056 PMID: 20478086
25. Deguen S, Flahault A. Impact on immunization of seasonal cycle of chickenpox. Eur J Epidemiol. 2000;16(12):1177-1181. PMID: 11484809
26. Chua AC, Cunningham J, Moussy F, Perkins MD, Formenty P. The case for improved diagnostic tools to control Ebola virus disease in West Africa and how to get there. PLoS NeglTrop Dis. 2015;9(6):E0003734. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003734 PMID: 26068890
27. Abhishek P, Katherine EA, Jan M, Natasha W, Jeffrey PT, James EC, et al. Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa. Science. 2014;346(6212):991-995. doi: 10.1126/science.1260612 PMID: 25414312
28. Fast SM, Mekaru S, Brownstein JS, Postlethwaite TA, Markuzon N. The role of social mobilization in controlling Ebola virus in Lofa County, Liberia. PLoSCurr. In press 2015.
29. WHO. Ebola response roadmap. 2015;7:15. Available: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136508/1/roadmapsitrep. Published Oct. 15, 2014.
30. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek J. Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building. 1st ed. West Sussex, England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd Press; 2000.
31. Chauhan A, Misra OP, Dhar J. Stability Analysis of SIR Model with Vaccination. American Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics. 2014;4(1):17-23.
32. Busenderg S, Driessche PV. Analysis of a disease transmission model in a population with varying size. J Math Biol. 1990;28(3):256-270.
33. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Rate of natural increase by major area, region and country, 1950-2100 (per 1, 000 population). Available: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/#. Published July 2015.
34. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Crude death rate by major area, region and country, 1950-2100 (deaths per 1, 000 population). Available: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/#. Published July 2015.
35. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Total population (both sexes combined) by major area, and country, annually for 1950-2100 (thousands).. Available: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DVD/#. Published July 2015.
36. Marino S, Hogue IB, Ray CJ, Kirschner DE. A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology. JTheorBiol. 2008;254(1):178-196. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.04.011 PMID: 18572196
37. McKay MD, Beckman RJ, Conover WJ. Acomparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from acomputercode. Technometrics. 1979;21(2):239-245.