Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: The Australian case

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 11, Issue 3, 2016, Pages

  Williamson, Grant J ^a   Prior, Lynda D ^a   Jolly, W Matt ^b   Cochrane, Mark A ^c   Murphy, Brett P ^d   Bowman, David M J S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA   (Australia)

^b USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

^c SOUTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d CHARLES DARWIN UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

climate variability; El Ni o Southern oscillation (ENSO); fire management; fire season; Indian Ocean dipole (IOD); pyrogeography

Indexed keywords

ARID REGIONS; ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; DEFORESTATION; METEOROLOGY; RAIN; STREAM FLOW; TROPICS;

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; FIRE MANAGEMENT; INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLES; PYROGEOGRAPHY; SOUTHERN OSCILLATION;

FIRES;

POACEAE;

EID: 84961937488     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035003     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. Archibald S, Scholes R J, Roy D P, Roberts G and Boschetti L 2010 Southern African fire regimes as revealed by remote sensing Int. J. Wildland Fire 19 861-78
2. Attiwill P M and Adams M A 2013 Mega-fires, inquiries and politics in the eucalypt forests of Victoria, South-Eastern Australia Forest Ecology Manage. 294 45-53
3. Bird R B, Codding B F, Kauhanen P G and Bird D W 2012 Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia's spinifex grasslands Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109 10287-92
4. Boer M M and Bowman D M J S 2016 Changes in climatic water balance drive transformational shifts in Australian fire regimes Environ. Res. Lett. submitted
5. Bowman D M J S et al 2011 The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth J. Biogeography 38 2223-36
6. Bowman D M J S et al 2009 Fire in the Earth system Science 324 481-4
7. Bowman D M J S, Murphy B P, Williamson G J and Cochrane M A 2014 Pyrogeographic models, feedbacks and the future of global fire regimes Glob. Ecology Biogeography 23 821-4
8. Bradshaw L S, Deeming J E, Burgan R E and Cohen J D 1983 The 1978 national fire-danger rating system: Technical documentation (Ogden, Utah: USDA Forest Service) General Technical Report INT-169
9. Bradstock R A 2010 A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: Current and future implications Glob. Ecology Biogeography 19 145-58
10. Bradstock R A, Penman T D, Boer M M, Price O and Clarke H G 2014 Divergent responses of fire to recent warming and drying across south-eastern Australia Glob. Change Biol. 20 1412-28
11. Brookhouse M 2006 Eucalypt dendrochronology: Past, present and potential Aust. J. Bot. 54 435-49
12. Cai W, Zheng X-T, Weller E, Collins M, Cowan T, Lengaigne M, Yu W and Yamagata T 2013 Projected response of the Indian Ocean dipole to greenhouse warming Nat. Geosci. 6 999-1007
13. Clarke H G, Smith P L and Pitman A J 2011 Regional signatures of future fire weather over eastern Australia from global climate models Int. J. Wildland Fire 20 550-62
14. Collins K M, Price O F and Penman T D 2015 Spatial patterns of wildfire ignitions in south-eastern Australia Int. J. Wildland Fire 24 1098-108
15. Cullen L E and Grierson P F 2009 Multi-decadal scale variability in autumn-winter rainfall in south-western Australia since 1655 AD as reconstructed from tree rings of Callitris columellaris Clim. Dyn. 33 433-44
16. Dai A 2013 Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models Nat. Clim. Change 3 52-8
17. Dennison P E, Brewer S C, Arnold J D and Mortiz M A 2014 Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984-2011 Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 2928-33
18. Fatichi S, Ivanov V Y and Caporali E 2012 Investigating interannual variability of precipitation at the global scale: Is there a connection with seasonality? J. Clim. 25 5512-23
19. Flannery T F 1997 The Future Eaters: An Ecological History of the Australasian Lands and People (Sydney: New Holland Publishers)
20. Fox-Hughes P 2008 A fire danger climatology for Tasmania Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 57 109-20 (www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2008/fox-hughes.pdf)
21. Giglio L 2007 Characterization of the tropical diurnal fire cycle using VIRS and MODIS observations Remote Sens. Environ. 108 407-21
22. Giglio L, Csiszar I and Justice C O 2006a Global distribution and seasonality of active fires as observed with the Terra and Aqua moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors J. Geophys. Res.: Biogeosci. 111 G02016
23. Giglio L, van der Werf G R, Randerson J T, Collatz G J and Kasibhatla P 2006b Global estimation of burned area using MODIS active fire observations Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6 957-74
24. Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M and Lo K 2010 Global surface temperature change Rev. Geophys. 48 RG4004
25. Hanstrum B N, Wilson K J and Barrell S L 1990 Prefrontal troughs over Southern Australia: I. A climatology Weather Forecast. 5 22-31
26. Heinrich I and Allen K 2013 Current issues and recent advances in Australian dendrochronology: Where to next? Geogr. Res. 51 180-91
27. Hennessy K J, Lucas C, Nicholls N, Bathols J M, Suppiah R and Ricketts J R 2005 Climate change impacts on fire-weather in South-East Australia Consultancy Report 88 (http://laptop.deh.gov.au/soe/2006/publications/drs/pubs/334/lnd/ld-24-climate-change-impacts-on-fire-weather.pdf)
28. Hijmans R J, Phillips S, Leathwick J and Elith J 2013 Dismo: Species distribution modeling R package version 0.9-3 (http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dismo)
29. Huffman M R 2013 The many elements of traditional fire knowledge: Synthesis, classification, and aids to cross-cultural problem solving in fire-dependent systems around the World Ecology Soc. 18 3
30. Hutchinson M F and Xu T B 2011 ANUCLIM Version 6.1 User guide (Canberra: Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University)
31. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology 2014 Dipole Mode Index (Kanagawa, Japan: Research Institute for Global Change) (http://jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/HTML/Dipole%20Mode%20Index.html)
32. Jeffrey S J, Carter J O, Moodie K B and Beswick A R 2001 Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data Environ. Modelling Softw. 16 309-30
33. Jolly W M, Cochrane M A, Freeborn P H, Holden Z A, Brown T J, Williamson G J and Bowman D M J S 2015 Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 Nat. Commun. 6 7537
34. Kershaw P, Moss P and Van Der Kaars S 2003 Causes and consequences of long-term climatic variability on the Australian continent Freshwater Biol. 48 1274-83
35. Koenker R 2013 Quantreg: Quantile regression R package version 5.05 (http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=quantreg)
36. Kottek M, Grieser J, Beck C, Rudolf B and Rubel F 2006 World map of the Koppen-Geiger climate classification updated Meteorol. Z. 15 259-63
37. Krause A, Kloster S, Wilkenskjeld S and Paeth H 2014 The sensitivity of global wildfires to simulated past, present, and future lightning frequency J. Geophys. Res.: Biogeosci. 119 312-22
38. Krawchuk M A and Moritz M A 2011 Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient Ecology 92 121-32
39. Krawchuk M A and Moritz M A 2014 Burning issues: Statistical analyses of global fire data to inform assessments of environmental change Environmetrics 25 472-81
40. Le Page Y, Oom D, Silva J, Jönsson P and Pereira J 2010 Seasonality of vegetation fires as modified by human action: Observing the deviation from ecoclimatic fire regimes Glob. Ecol. Biogeography 19 575-88
41. Maier S W and Russell-Smith J 2012 Measuring and monitoring of contemporary fire regimes in Australia using satellite remote sensing Flammable Australia: Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World ed R A Bradstock et al (Collingwood, Victoria, Australia: CSIRO) pp 79-95
42. McArthur A G 1966 25 Fire Behaviour in Eucalypt Forest Leaflet Australian Forestry and Timber Bureau 107 p
43. Meinke H, deVoil P, Hammer G L, Power S, Allan R, Stone R C, Folland C and Potgieter A 2005 Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: Signal or noise? J. Clim. 18 89-96
44. Murphy B P et al 2013 Fire regimes of Australia: A pyrogeographic model system J. Biogeography 40 1048-58
45. Murphy B P, Williamson G J and Bowman DMJS 2011 Fire regimes: Moving from a fuzzy concept to geographic entity New Phytologist 192 316-8
46. NASA 2012 LIS/OTD 2.5 Degree low resolution monthly time series ' (EOSDIS GHRC DAAC: Huntsville, AL) (http://grip.nsstc.nasa.gov/)
47. National Center for Atmospheric Research 2014 Southern Oscillation Index (http://cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi.html)
48. Nicholls N and Lucas C 2007 Interannual variations of area burnt in Tasmanian bushfires: Relationships with climate and predictability Int. J. Wildland Fire 16 540-6
49. Noble I R, Bary G A V and Gill A M 1980 McArthur fire-danger meters expressed as equations Aust. J. Ecology 5 201-3
50. Notaro M 2008 Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability Clim. Dyn. 30 845-54
51. Olson D M et al 2001 Terrestrial ecoregions of the worlds: A new map of life on Earth Bioscience 51 933-8
52. Orians G H and Milewski A V 2007 Ecology of Australia: The effects of nutrient-poor soils and intense fires Biol. Rev. 82 393-423
53. Piñol J, Terradas J and Lloret F 1998 Climate warming, wildfire hazard, and wildfire occurrence in coastal Eastern Spain Clim. Change 38 345-57
54. Price C 2009 Thunderstorms, lightning and climate change Lightning: Principles, Instruments and Application ed H D Betz et al (Netherlands: Springer) pp 521-35
55. Price C and Rind D 1994 The impact of a 2x CO2 climate on lightning-caused fires J. Clim. 7 1484-94
56. R Core Team 2015 R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing)
57. Reeve N and Toumi R 1999 Lightning activity as an indicator of climate change Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125 893-903
58. Russell-Smith J, Cook G D, Cooke P M, Edwards A C, Lendrum M, Meyer C P and Whitehead P J 2013 Managing fire regimes in North Australian savannas: Applying Aboriginal approaches to contemporary global problems Frontiers Ecology Environ. 11 E55-63
59. Russell-Smith J, Yates C, Edwards A, Allan G E, Cook G D, Cooke P, Craig R, Heath B and Smith R 2003 Contemporary fire regimes of Northern Australia, 1997-2001: Change since Aboriginal occupancy, challenges for sustainable management Int. J. Wildland Fire 12 283-97
60. Russell-Smith J et al 2007 Bushfires 'down under': Patterns and implications of contemporary Australian landscape burning Int. J. Wildland Fire 16 361-77
61. Saji N H, Goswami B N, Vinayachandran P N and Yamagata T 1999 A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean Nature 401 360-3
62. Trenberth K E 1984 Signal versus noise in the southern oscillation Mon. Weather Rev. 112 326-32
63. Trenberth K E, Dai A, van der Schrier G, Jones P D, Barichivich J, Briffa K R and Sheffield J 2014 Global warming and changes in drought Nat. Clim. Change 4 17-22
64. van der Werf G R, Randerson J T, Giglio L, Collatz G J, Kasibhatla P S and Arellano A F Jr 2006 Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6 3423-41
65. van Wagner C E and Picket T L 1985 Equations and FORTRAN Program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (Ottawa: Canadian Forestry Service)
66. Verdon D C, Kiem A S and Franks S W 2004 Multi-decadal variability of forest fire risk - eastern Australia Int. J. Wildland Fire 13 165-71
67. Wand M 2014 KernSmooth: Functions for kernel smoothing for Wand and Jones (1995) R package version 2.23-12 (http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=KernSmooth)
68. Westerling A L, Hidalgo H G, Cayan D R and Swetnam T W 2006 Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity Science 313 940-3
69. White W B, McKeon G and Syktus J 2003 Australian drought: The interference of multi-spectral global standing modes and travelling waves Int. J. Climatol. 23 631-62