Does El Niño intensity matter for California precipitation?

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 43, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 819-825

  Hoell, Andrew ^a   Hoerling, Martin ^a   Eischeid, Jon ^a,b   Wolter, Klaus ^a,b   Dole, Randall ^a   Perlwitz, Judith ^a,b   Xu, Taiyi ^a,b   Cheng, Linyin ^a,b  

^a EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

Author keywords

California; drought; El Ni o; precipitation

Indexed keywords

DROUGHT; NICKEL; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PROBABILITY; WATER RESOURCES;

CALIFORNIA; CLIMATE SIMULATION; MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE; SITUATIONAL AWARENESS; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA; WATER PLANNING; WET CONDITIONS;

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS;

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DROUGHT STRESS; EL NINO; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PROBABILITY; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER PLANNING;

CALIFORNIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84961285909     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067102     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. AghaKouchak, A., D. Feldman, M. Hoerling, T. Huxman, and, J. Lund, (2015), Water and climate: Recognize anthropogenic drought, Nature, 524 (7566), 409-411, doi: 10.1038/524409a
2. California Department of Water Resources (2015), Drought in California, State of California. [Available at http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/docs/DWR-DroughtBroch-070815-web.pdf.]
3. Capotondi, A., et al., (2015), Understanding ENSO diversity, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 921-938, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1
4. Chiodi, A. M., and, D. E. Harrison, (2012), El Niño impacts on seasonal U.S. atmospheric circulation, temperature, and precipitation anomalies: The OLR-event perspective, J. Clim., 26 (3), 822-837, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00097.1
5. Climate Prediction Center (2015a), November 2015 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. [Available at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert-assessment/ENSO-DD-archive.shtml.]
6. Climate Prediction Center (2015b), Keep calm and stop obsessing over weekly changes in ENSO. [Available at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/keep-calm-and-stop-obsessing-over-weekly-changes-enso.]
7. Dettinger, M. D., D. R. Cayan, H. F. Diaz, and, D. M. Meko, (1998), North-south precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales, J. Clim., 11 (12), 3095-3111, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<3095:NSPPIW>2.0.CO;2
8. Diaz, H. F., and, E. R. Wahl, (2015), Recent California water year precipitation deficits: A 440-year perspective, J. Clim., 28 (12), 4637-4652, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00774.1
9. Diffenbaugh, N. S., D. L. Swain, and, D. Touma, (2015), Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 112 (13), 3931-3936
10. Gates, W. L., (1992), AMIP: The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 73 (12), 1962-1970, doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<1962:ATAMIP>2.0.CO;2
11. Griffin, D., and, K. J. Anchukaitis, (2014), How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 9017-9023, doi: 10.1002/2014GL062433
12. Hoerling, M. P., and, A. Kumar, (1997), Why do North American climate anomalies differ from one El Niño event to another?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24 (9), 1059-1062, doi: 10.1029/97GL00918
13. Hoerling, M. P., and, A. Kumar, (2000), Understanding and predicting extratropical teleconnections related to ENSO, in El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multi-Scale Variability, and Global and Regional Impacts, edited by, H. F. Diaz, and, V. Markgra, pp. 57-88, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K
14. Hoerling, M. P., and, A. Kumar, (2002), Atmospheric response patterns associated with tropical forcing, J. Clim., 15 (16), 2184-2203, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2184:ARPAWT>2.0.CO;2
15. Huang, B., V. F. Banzon, E. Freeman, J. Lawrimore, W. Liu, T. C. Peterson, T. M. Smith, P. W. Thorne, S. D. Woodruff, and, H.-M. Zhang, (2014), Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons, J. Clim., 28 (3), 911-930, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00006.1
16. Hurrell, J. W., J. J. Hack, D. Shea, J. M. Caron, and, J. Rosinski, (2008), A new sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model, J. Clim., 21 (19), 5145-5153, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2292.1
17. Kiladis, G. N., and, H. F. Diaz, (1986), An analysis of the 1877-78 ENSO episode and comparison with 1982-83, Mon. Weather Rev., 114 (6), 1035-1047, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1035:AAOTEE>2.0.CO;2
18. Kousky, V. E., and, R. W. Higgins, (2007), An alert classification system for monitoring and assessing the ENSO cycle, Weather Forecasting, 22 (2), 353-371, doi: 10.1175/WAF987.1
19. Kumar, A., and, M. P. Hoerling, (1997), Interpretation and implications of the observed inter-El Niño variability, J. Clim., 10 (1), 83-91, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0083:IAIOTO>2.0.CO;2
20. Larkin, N. K., and, D. E. Harrison, (2005), On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L13705, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022738
21. McCabe, G. J., and, M. D. Dettinger, (1999), Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States, Int. J. Climatol., 19 (13), 1399-1410, doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19991115)19:13<1399::AID-JOC457>3.0.CO;2-A
22. Redmond, K. T., and, R. W. Koch, (1991), Surface climate and streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices, Water Resour. Res., 27 (9), 2381-2399, doi: 10.1029/91WR00690
23. Ropelewski, C. F., and, M. S. Halpert, (1986), North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Mon. Weather Rev., 114 (12), 2352-2362, doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<2352:NAPATP>2.0.CO;2
24. Schonher, T., and, S. E. Nicholson, (1989), The relationship between California rainfall and ENSO events, J. Clim., 2 (11), 1258-1269, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1989)002<1258:TRBCRA>2.0.CO;2
25. Seager, R., M. Hoerling, S. Schubert, H. Wang, B. Lyon, A. Kumar, J. Nakamura, and, N. Henderson, (2015), Causes of the 2011 to 2014 California drought, J. Clim., 28, 6997-7024, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00860.1
26. Shukla, S., M. Safeeq, A. AghaKouchak, K. Guan, and, C. Funk, (2015), Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4384-4393, doi: 10.1002/2015GL063666
27. Vose, R. S., S. Applequist, M. Squires, I. Durre, M. J. Menne, C. N. Williams, C. Fenimore, K. Gleason, and, D. Arndt, (2014), Improved historical temperature and precipitation time series for U.S. climate divisions, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 53 (5), 1232-1251, doi: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0248.1
28. Williams, A. P., R. Seager, J. T. Abatzoglou, B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, and, E. R. Cook, (2015), Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2014, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 6819-6828, doi: 10.1002/2015GL064924
29. Yu, J.-Y., Y. Zou, S. T. Kim, and, T. Lee, (2012), The changing impact of El Niño on US winter temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L15702, doi: 10.1029/2012GL052483
30. Zhang, T., J. Perlwitz, and, M. P. Hoerling, (2014), What is responsible for the strong observed asymmetry in teleconnections between El Niño and La Niña?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1019-1025, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058964.