Predicting future weight status from measurements made in early childhood: A novel longitudinal approach applied to Millennium Cohort Study data

Nutrition and Diabetes

Volumn 6, Issue , 2016, Pages

  Mead, E ^a   Batterham, A M ^a   Atkinson, G ^a   Ells, L J ^a  

^a TEESSIDE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BODY WEIGHT; CHILD; CHILDHOOD; CHILDHOOD OBESITY; COHORT ANALYSIS; FEMALE; FOLLOW UP; HUMAN; LONGITUDINAL STUDY; MALE; MEASUREMENT; MORBID OBESITY; PREDICTIVE VALUE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEX DIFFERENCE; UNDERWEIGHT; BODY MASS; FORECASTING; GREAT BRITAIN; OVERWEIGHT; PEDIATRIC OBESITY; PRESCHOOL CHILD; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; STATISTICAL MODEL;

BODY MASS INDEX; BODY WEIGHT; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; FEMALE; FOLLOW-UP STUDIES; FORECASTING; GREAT BRITAIN; HUMANS; LOGISTIC MODELS; LONGITUDINAL STUDIES; MALE; OVERWEIGHT; PEDIATRIC OBESITY; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SEX FACTORS;

EID: 84960884002     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20444052     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nutd.2016.3     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Ng M, Fleming T, Robinson M, Thomson B, Graetz N, Margono C., et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2014; 384: 766-781
2. Friedemann C, Heneghan C, Mahtani K, Thompson M, Perera R, Ward AM. Cardiovascular disease risk in healthy children and its association with body mass index: systematic review and meta-Analysis. BMJ 2012; 345: e4759
3. Gouveia M, Frontini R, Canavarro M, Moreira H. Quality of life and psychological functioning in pediatric obesity: the role of body image dissatisfaction between girls and boys of different ages. Qual Life Res 2014; 23: 2629-2638
4. Reilly JJ, Kelly J. Long-term impact of overweight and obesity in childhood and adolescence on morbidity and premature mortality in adulthood: systematic review. Int J Obes 2011; 35: 891-898
5. Herman KM, Craig CL, Gauvin L, Katzmarzyk PT. Tracking of obesity and physical activity from childhood to adulthood: the Physical Activity Longitudinal Study. Int J Pediatr Obes 2009; 4: 281-288
6. HSCIC. National Child Measurement Programme: England, 2013/14 school year. December 2014 [accessed 10/08/2015]. Available from http://www.hscic.gov.uk/ catalogue/PUB16070
7. Falconer CL, Park MH, Croker H, Skow Á, Black J, Saxena S., et al. The benefits and harms of providing parents with weight feedback as part of the national child measurement programme: a prospective cohort study. BMC Public Health 2014; 14: 549
8. Statham J, Mooney A, Boddy J, Cage M. Taking stock: a rapid review of the National Child Measurement Programme. Report to the Department of Health [Internet]. April 2011 [accessed 04/05/2015]. Available from: http://eprints.ioe.ac. uk/6743/.
9. Public Health England. National Child Measurement Programme: Guidance for data sharing and analysis July 2014 [accessed 10/09/2015]. Available from http://www.noo.org.uk/NCMP/analytical-guidance
10. Bayer O, Krüger H, Von Kries R, Toschke AM. Factors associated with tracking of BMI: a meta-regression analysis on BMI tracking. Obesity (Silver Spring) 2011; 19: 1069-1076
11. Atkinson G, Nevill AM. Statistical methods for assessing measurement error (reliability) in variables relevant to sports medicine. Sports Med 1998; 26: 217-238
12. Pearce M, Webb-Phillips S, Bray I. Changes in objectively measured BMI in children aged 4-11 years: data from the National Child Measurement Programme. J Public Health; e-pub ahead of print 6 May 2015; doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdv058
13. Tripepi G, Jager KJ, Dekker FW, Wanner C, Zoccali C. Measures of effect: relative risks, odds ratios, risk difference, and 'number needed to treat'. Kidney Int 2007; 72: 789-791
14. Ells LJ, Hancock C, Copley VR, Mead E, Dinsdale H, Kinra S., et al. Prevalence of severe childhood obesity in England: 2006-2013. Arch Dis Child 2015; 100: 631-636
15. Simmonds M, Burch J, Llewellyn A, Griffiths C, Yang H, Owen C., et al. The use of measures of obesity in childhood for predicting obesity and the development of obesity-related diseases in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-Analysis. Health Technol Assess 2015; 19: 1-336
16. Steurer J, Fischer JE, Bachmann LM, Koller M, ter Riet G. Communicating accuracy of tests to general practitioners: a controlled study. BMJ 2002; 324: 824-826
17. Centre for Longitudinal Studies. Millennium Cohort Study. A Guide to the Datasets (Eighth Edition) First, Second, Third, Fourth and Fifth Surveys February 2014 [accessed 18/08/2015]. Available from http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/page.aspx?& site sectionid = 1266& sitesectiontitle = User+Guides
18. Centre for Longitudinal Studies. The Millennium Cohort Study: Technical Report on Sampling July 2007 [accessed 18/08/2015]. Available from http://www.cls.ioe. ac.uk/page.aspx?& sitesectionid = 880& sitesectiontitle = Survey+Design
19. University of London Institute of Education Centre for Longitudinal Studies. Millennium Cohort Study: Third Survey, 2006 [computer file]. 6th Edition. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor]; December 2012. SN: 5795 http:// dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-5795-3
20. University of London Institute of Education Centre for Longitudinal Studies. Millennium Cohort Study: Fifth Survey, 2012 [computer file]. 2nd Edition. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor]; August 2015. SN: 7464 http://dx. doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7464-2
21. LMSgrowth Microsoft Excel add-in software. Harlow Printing Limited [accessed 08/06/2015]. Available from http://www.healthforallchildren.com/shop-base/soft ware/lmsgrowth/.
22. Cole TJ, Freeman JV, Preece M.A. Body mass index reference curves for the UK, 1990. Arch Dis Child 1995; 73: 25-29
23. Rothman KJ. No adjustments are needed for multiple comparisons. Epidemiology 1990; 1: 43-46
24. Williams R. Generalized ordered logit/partial proportional odds models for ordinal dependent variables. Stata J 2006; 6: 58-82
25. Allinson P. Missing Data. Sage University Papers Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-136. Sage, 2001. pp 83-84
26. Rubin D. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys. Wiley: New York, 1987
27. HSCIC. Validation of National Child Measurement Programme Data. February 2015. 16/09/2015. Available from http://www.hscic.gov.uk/media/ 16230/Validation-of-National-Child-Measurement-Programme-Data/pdf/Validation-Principle-And-Rules.pdf
28. Public Health England. Child Obesity Data Sources [09/09/2015]. Available from https: //www.noo.org.uk/data-sources/child
29. Public Health England. National Child Measurement Programme. Changes in children's BMI between 2006/7 and 2012/13 November 2014 [accessed 15/09/ 2015]. Available from http://www.noo.org.uk/NCMP/National-report
30. The Local Authority (Public Health, Health and Wellbeing Boards and Health Scrutiny) Regulations 2013, No. 218 (2013
31. Porter M, Greene T, Taylor A. Childhood Obesity in Hull: Paired Analysis. Hull PCT: Hull, December 2007
32. King D. Child Growth Briefing Note. National Child Measurement Programme 2001/02 to 2009/10, Summary Report October 2011 [accessed 17/08/2015]. Available from http://www.publichealth.southampton.gov.uk/Images/Child% 20Growth%20Report%20SC%20PCT%20(2011).pdf
33. Javed A, Jumean M, Murad MH, Okorodudu D, Kumar S, Somers VK., et al. Diagnostic performance of body mass index to identify obesity as defined by body adiposity in children and adolescents: a systematic review and metaanalysis. Pediatr Obes 2015; 10: 234-244
34. Dinsdale H, Ridler C, Ells LJ. A simple guide to classifying body mass index in children. Oxford: National Obesity Observatory, 2011. Available from http://www. noo.org.uk/uploads/doc/vid-11601-A-simple-guide-to-classifying-BMI-in-chil dren.pdf
35. Freedman DS, Khan LK, Serdula MK, Dietz WH, Srinivasan SR, Berenson GS. Racial differences in the tracking of childhood BMI to adulthood. Obes Res 2005; 13: 928-935
36. Karlsen S, Morris S, Kinra S, Vallejo-Torres L, Viner RM. Ethnic variations in overweight and obesity among children over time: findings from analyses of the Health Surveys for England 1998-2009. Pediatr Obes 2014; 9: 186-196
37. Dietz WH. Critical periods in childhood for the development of obesity. Am J Clin Nutr 1994; 59: 955-959