Time series analysis of reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2010 to 2013 in Wuhan, China

BMC Infectious Diseases

Volumn 15, Issue 1, 2015, Pages

  Chen, Banghua ^a   Sumi, Ayako ^b   Toyoda, Shin'ichi ^c   Hu, Quan ^a   Zhou, Dunjin ^a   Mise, Keiji ^d   Zhao, Junchan ^e   Kobayashi, Nobumichi ^b  

^a Hubei Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention   (China)

^b SAPPORO MEDICAL UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (Japan)

^c Dept of Information Processing Engineering College of Industrial Technology 1 27 1 Nishikoya   (Japan)

^d SAPPORO MEDICAL UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^e HUNAN UNIVERSITY OF COMMERCE   (China)

Author keywords

Hand, foot, and mouth disease; Meteorological variable; Seasonality; Spectral analysis; Time series analysis

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

AGE DISTRIBUTION; ARTICLE; CHILD; CHINA; CONTROLLED STUDY; COXSACKIEVIRUS A16; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; ENTEROVIRUS 71; EPIDEMIC; HAND FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE; HUMAN; HUMIDITY; INCIDENCE; INFANT; INFECTION RISK; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA; PREDICTION; REAL TIME POLYMERASE CHAIN REACTION; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUMMER; TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WIND; WINTER; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; ENTEROVIRUS; ENTEROVIRUS INFECTIONS; HAND, FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE; LEAST SQUARE ANALYSIS; NEWBORN; PATHOGENICITY; PRESCHOOL CHILD; SEASON; TEMPERATURE; THEORETICAL MODEL; WEATHER;

CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; CHINA; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; ENTEROVIRUS; ENTEROVIRUS INFECTIONS; HAND, FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE; HUMANS; INFANT; INFANT, NEWBORN; LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; SEASONS; TEMPERATURE; WEATHER;

EID: 84960453581     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14712334     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-015-1233-0     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Melnick JL. Poliovirus and other enteroviruses. In: Evans AS, Kaslow RA, editors. Viral infections of humans -epidemiology and control. 4th ed. New York: Plenum Publishing Corporation; 1997. p. 583-663.
2. Tu PV, Thao NT, Perera D, Huu TK, Tien NT, Thuong TC, et al. Epidemiological and virologic investigation of hand, foot, and mouth disease, Southern Vietnam. Emerg Infect Dis. 2005;13:1733-41.
3. Fujimoto T, Chikahira M, Yoshida S, Ebira H, Hasegawa A, Totsuka A, et al. Outbreak of central nervous system disease associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Japan during the summer 2000: detection and molecular epidemiology of enterovirus 71. Microbiol Immunol. 2002;46:621-7.
4. Wang Y, Feng Z, Yang Y, Self S, Gao Y, Longini IM, et al. Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China: patterns of spread and transmissibility. Epidemiology. 2011;22:781-92.
5. Ang LW, Phoon MC, Wu Y, Cutter J, James L, Chow V. The changing seroepidemiology of enterovirus 71 infection among children and adolescents in Singapore. BMC Infect Dis. 2011;11:270.
6. Pueppa J, Theamboonlers A, Korkong S, Linsuwanon P, Thongmee C, Chatproedprai S, et al. Molecular characterization and complete genome analysis of human enterovirus 71 and coxsackievirus A16 from children with hand, foot and mouth disease in Thailand during 2008-2011. Arch Viol. 2011;156:2007-13.
7. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. National Incidence and death cases of notifiable class A or class B infectious diseases. [ http://www.chinacdc.cn ]. Accessed 10 October 2015.
8. Xing W, Liao Q, Viboud C, Zhang J, Sun J, Yu JT, et al. Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-12: an epidemiological study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014;14:308-18.
9. Feng H, Duan G, Zhang R, Zhang W. Time series analysis of hand-foot-mouth disease hospitalization in Zhengzhou: establishment of forecasting models using climate variables as predictors. PLoS One. 2014;9:e87916.
10. Liu Y, Wang X, Liu Y, Sun D, Ding S, Zhang B, et al. Detecting spatial-temporal clusters of HFMD from 2007 to 2011 in Shandong province, China. PLoS One. 2013;8:e63447.
11. Wu H, Wnag H, Wang Q, Xin Q, Lin H. The effect of meteorological factors on adolescent hand, foot, and mouth disease and associated effect modifiers. Global Health Action. 2014;7:1-8.
12. Huang Y, Deng T, Yu S, Gu J, Huang C, Xiao G, et al. Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China. BMC Infect Dis. 2013;13:134-42.
13. Zou X, Zhang XZ, Wang B, Qiu YT. Etiologic and epidemiologic analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangzhou city: a review of 4,753 cases. Braz J Infect Dis. 2012;16:457-65.
14. Sumi A, Luo T, Zhou D, Yu B, Kong D, Kobayashi N. Time-series analysis of hepatitis A, B, C and E infections in a large Chinese city: application to prediction analysis. Epidemiol Infect. 2013;141:905-15.
15. Sumi A, Rajendran K, Ramamurthy T, Krishinan T, Nair GB, Harigane K, et al. Effect of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall on rotavirus infections in Kolkata, India. Epidemiol Infect. 2013;141:1652-61.
16. Luo T, Sumi A, Zhou D, Kobayashi N, Mise K, Yu B, et al. Seasonality of reported tuberculosis cases from 2006 to 2010 in Wuhan, China. Epidemiol Infect. 2014;142:2036-48.
17. Ohtomo K, Kobayashi N, Sumi A, Ohtomo N. Relationship of cholera incidence to El Niño and solar activity elucidated by time-series analysis. Epidemiol Infect. 2010;138:99-107.
18. Harigane K, Sumi A, Mise K, Kobayashi N. The role of temperature in reported chickenpox cases from 2000 to 2011 in Japan. Epidemiol Infect. (in press).
19. China Ministry of Health. Guideline for the diagnosis and treatment of hand, foot and mouth disease. 2010. Available at: http://www.moh.gov.cn/yzygj/s3593g/201306/6d935c0f43cd4a1fb46f8f71acf8e245.shtml.
20. Guideline for the Prevention and Control of HFMD, 2009. Available at: http://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/szkb/jszl_2275/200906/t20090612_24707.htm. Accessed 10 October 2015.
21. Ohtomo N, Terachi S, Tanaka Y, Tokiwano K, Kaneko N. New method of time series analysis and its application to Wolf's sunspot number data. Jpn J Appl Phys. 1994;33:2321-831.
22. Sumi A, Ohtomo N, Tanaka Y, Sawamura S, Olsen LF, Kobayashi N. Prediction analysis for measles epidemics. Jpn J Appl Phys. 2003;42:7611-20.
23. Armitage P, Berry G, Matthews JNS. Statistical methods in medical research. 4th ed. Oxford: Blackwell Science; 2012.
24. Papoulis A. Probability, random variables, and stochastic process. 3rd ed. New York: MacGrawHill; 1991.
25. Chang HL, Chio CP, Su HJ, Liao CM, Lin CY, Shau WY, et al. The association between enterovirus 71 infections and meteorological parameters in Taiwan. PLoS One. 2012;7:e46845.
26. Chen Z, Sun H, Yan Y, Wang Y, Zhu C, Zhou W, et al. Epidemiological profiles of hand, foot, and mouth disease, including meteorological factors, in Suzhou, China. Arch Viol. 2015;160:315-21.
27. Singapore MH. EV71-associated epidemic hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore. Epidemiol News Bull. 2008;34:63-6.
28. Karmer A, Schwebke I, Kampf G. How long do nosocominal pathogens persists on inanimate surface? A systematic review. BMC Infect Dis. 2006;6:130.
29. Abad FX, Pinto RM, Bosch A. Survival of enteric viruses on environmental fomites. Appl Environ Microbiol. 1994;60:3704-10.
30. Anderson RM, May RM. Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. London: Oxford University Press; 1991.
31. Olsen LF, Schaffer WM. Chaos versus noisy periodicity: alternative hypotheses for childhood epidemics. Science. 1990;249:499-504.
32. Li Y, Zhang J, Zhang X. Modeling and preventive measures of Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014;11:3108-17.
33. Ma E, Lam T, Wong C, Chuang SK. Is hand, foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameters? Epidemiol Infect. 2010;138:1779-88.
34. Song Y, Wang F, Wang, B, Tao S, Zhang H, Liu S, Ramirez O, Zeng Q. Time series analyses of hand, foot and mouth disease integrating weather variables. PLoS One. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0117296.
35. McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS. Climate change 2001: impacts, application, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2001. p. 462.
36. Meeburg BG, Kijllstra A. Changing climate-changing pathogens: Toxoplasma gondii in North-Western Europe. Parasitol Res. 2009;105:17-24.
37. Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature. 2005;438:310-7.