Stochastic and anthropogenic influences on repeated record-breaking temperature extremes in Australian spring of 2013 and 2014

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 43, Issue 5, 2016, Pages 2182-2191

  Gallant, Ailie J E ^a,b   Lewis, Sophie C ^b,c  

^a MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science   (Australia)

^c AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

climate change; climate change processes; extreme event attribution; temperature

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; TEMPERATURE;

ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE; ANTHROPOGENIC WARMING; CHANGE PROCESS; CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS; EXTREME EVENTS; EXTREME TEMPERATURES; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ANNUAL VARIATION; ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; EXTREME EVENT; GLOBAL WARMING; SPRING (SEASON); STOCHASTICITY; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; TEMPORAL RECORD;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 84960336635     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067740     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Arblaster, J. M., E. P. Lim, H. H. Hendon, B. C. Trewin, M. C. Wheeler, G. Liu, and, K. Braganza, (2014), Understanding Australia's hottest September on record-[in explaining extremes of 2013 from a climate perspective], Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, S37-S41.
2. Baldwin, M. P., D. B. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and, A. O'Neill, (2003), Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts, Science, 301, 636-640, doi: 10.1126/science.1087143.
3. Ballerini, R., and, S. I. Resnick, (1987), Records in the presence of a linear trend, Adv. Appl. Probab., 19, 801-828, doi: 10.2307/1427103.
4. Benestad, R. E., (2003), How often can we expect a record event?, Clim. Res., 25, 3-13, doi: 10.3354/cr025003.
5. Bretherton, C. S., M. Widmann, V. P. Dymnikov, J. M. Wallace, and, I. Blade, (1999), The effective number of spatial degrees of freedom of a time-varying field, J. Clim., 12, 1990-2009.
6. Bunde, A., J. F. Eichner, J. W. Kantelhardt, and, S. Havlin, (2005), Long-term memory: A natural mechanism for the clustering of extreme events and anomalous residual times in climate records, Phys. Rev. Lett., 94, doi: 10.1103/physrevlett.94.048701.
7. Bureau of Meteorology (2013), Australia's warmest September on record Special Climate Statement 46. [Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs46.pdf.]
8. Bureau of Meteorology (2014), Annual Climate Report 2013, 36 pp. [Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/annual-sum/2013/index.shtml.]
9. Bureau of Meteorology (2016), Annual Climate Report 2015, 36 pp. [Available at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/annual-sum/2013/index.shtml.]
10. Dee, D. P., et al., (2011), The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi: 10.1002/qj.828.
11. Fawcett, R. J. B., B. C. Trewin, K. Braganza, R. J. Smalley, B. Jovanovic, and, D. A. Jones, (2012), On the sensitivity of Australian temperature trends and variability to analysis methods and observation networks CAWCR Technical Report No. 050, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 66 pp.
12. Gallant, A. J. E., M. J. Reeder, J. S. Risbey, and, K. J. Hennessy, (2013), The characteristics of seasonal-scale droughts in Australia 1911-2009, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1658-1672, doi: 10.1002/joc.3540.
13. Hendon, H. H., D. W. J. Thompson, and, M. C. Wheeler, (2007), Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode, J. Clim., 20, 2452-2467, doi: 10.1175/jcli4134.1.
14. Hope, P., E. P. Lim, G. Wang, H. H. Hendon, and, J. M. Arblaster, (2015a), Contributors to the record high temperatures across Australia in late spring 2014-[in explaining extremes of 2014 from a climate perspective], Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, S149-S153.
15. Hope, P., P. Reid, S. Tobin, M. Tully, A. Klekociuk, and, P. Krummel, (2015b), Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (spring 2014): El Ninõ continues to try to break through, and Australia has its warmest spring on record (again!), Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J., 65, 267-292.
16. Hoskins, B. J., M. E. McIntyre, and, A. W. Roberston, (1985), On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 111, 877-946.
17. International Panel on Climate Change (2013), Annex I: Atlas of global and regional climate projections, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by, T. F. Stocker, et al., pp. 1311-1394, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K., and New York, doi: 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.029.
18. Jones, D. A., W. Wang, and, R. Fawcett, (2009), High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia, Aust. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J., 58, 233-248.
19. Lewis, S. C., and, D. J. Karoly, (2014), The role of anthropogenic forcing in the record 2013 Australia-wide annual and spring temperatures [in explaining extremes of 2013 from a climate perspective], Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, S31-S34.
20. Marshall, G. J., (2003), Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses, J. Clim., 16, 4134-4143, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442.
21. Nicholls, N., B. Lavery, C. Frederiksen, W. Drosdowsky, and, S. Torok, (1996), Recent apparent changes in relationships between the El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall and temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3357-3360, doi: 10.1029/96GL03166.
22. Parker, T. J., G. J. Berry, and, M. J. Reeder, (2014), The structure and evolution of heat waves in southeastern Australia, J. Clim., 27, 5768-5785, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00740.1.
23. Perkins, S. E., D. Agueso, and, C. J. White, (2015), Relationships between climate variability, soil moisture and Australian heatwaves, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 8144-8164, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023592.
24. Peters, G. P., R. M. Andrew, T. Boden, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, C. Le Quéré, G. Marland, M. R. Raupach, and, C. Wilson, (2012), The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 4-6, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1783.
25. Seneviratne, S. I., D. Lüthi, M. Litschi, and, C. Schär, (2006), Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe, Nature, 443, 205-209, doi: 10.1038/nature05095.
26. Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and, J. Lawrimore, (2008), Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis, J. Clim., 21, 2283-2296, doi: 10.1175/2007jcli2100.1.
27. Stone, D. A., and, M. R. Allen, (2005), The end-to-end attribution problem: From emissions to impacts, Clim. Change, 71, 303-318, doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-6778-2.
28. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and, G. A. Meehl, (2012), An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi: 10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1.
29. Tihema, T., (2014), Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere spring (spring 2013): Warmest Australian spring on record, Aust. Meterol. Oceanogr. J., 64, 149-160.
30. Timbal, B., S. Power, R. Colman, J. Viviand, and, S. Lirola, (2002), Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over Australia?, J. Clim., 15, 1230-1238, doi: 10.1175/1520-0442.
31. Trenberth, K. E., (1997), The definition of El Ninõ, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2771-2777, doi: 10.1175/1520-0477.
32. Trewin, B., (2012), A daily homogenized temperature data set for Australia, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 1510-1529, doi: 10.1002/joc.3530.
33. Wergen, G., A. Hense, and, J. Krug, (2013), Record occurrence and record values in daily and monthly temperatures, Clim. Dyn., 42, 1275-1289.