Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses

Global Change Biology

Volumn 22, Issue 6, 2016, Pages 2081-2093

  McCain, Christy ^a,b   Szewczyk, Tim ^a   Bracy Knight, Kevin ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

Author keywords

Abundance change; Demography; Extinction risk; Local extirpation; Population monitoring; Range contractions; Range shifts; Stochasticity

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; DEMOGRAPHY; EXTINCTION RISK; MONITORING; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION SIZE; STOCHASTICITY;

INVERTEBRATA; VERTEBRATA;

ANIMAL; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGY; PLANT; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PROCEDURES; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ANIMALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGY; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PLANTS; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

EID: 84959934136     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13211     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. Alexander HM, Slade NA, Kettle WD (1997) Application of mark-recapture models to estimation of the population size of plants. Ecology, 78, 1230-1237.
2. Andrewartha HG, Birch LC (1954) The Distribution and Abundance of Animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
3. Ariño A, Pimm S (1995) On the nature of population extremes. Evolutionary Ecology, 9, 429-443.
4. Bates AE, Bird TJ, Stuart-Smith RD et al. (2015) Distinguishing geographical range shifts from artefacts of detectability and sampling effort. Diversity and Distributions, 21, 13-22.
5. Beever EA, Brussard PF, Berger J, O'Shea T (2003) Patterns of apparent extirpation among isolated populations of pikas (Ochotona princeps) in the Great Basin. Journal of Mammalogy, 84, 37-54.
6. Beever EA, Ray C, Wilkening JL, Brussard PF, Mote PW (2011) Contemporary climate change alters the pace and drivers of extinction. Global Change Biology, 17, 2054-2070.
7. Begon M, Mortimer M, Thompson DJ (1996) Population Ecology: A Unified Study of Animals and Plants. Open University, (3rd edn). Blackwell Science Ltd., Oxford, UK.
8. Bradley NL, Leopold AC, Ross J, Huffaker W (1999) Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 96, 9701-9704.
9. Brady MJ, Slade NA (2004) Long-term dynamics of a grassland rodent community. Journal of Mammalogy, 85, 552-561.
10. Brown JH (1984) On the relationship between abundance and distribution of species. The American Naturalist, 124, 255-279.
11. Brown JH, Stevens GC, Kaufman DM (1996) The geographic range: size, shape, boundaries, and internal structure. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 27, 597-623.
12. Chen I-C, Hill JK, Ohlemüller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science, 333, 1024-1026.
13. Clutton-Brock TH, Illius AW, Wilson K, Grenfell BT, Maccoll ADC, Albon SD (1997) Stability and instability in ungulate populations: an empirical analysis. The American Naturalist, 149, 195-219.
14. Cyr H (1997) Does inter-annual variability in population density increase with time? Oikos, 79, 549-558.
15. Davidson J (1938) On the growth of the sheep population in Tasmania. Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia, 62, 342-346.
16. Davidson J, Andrewartha HG (1948) The influence of rainfall, evaporation and atmospheric temperature on fluctuations in the size of a natural population of Thrips imaginis (Thysanoptera). Journal of Animal Ecology, 17, 200-222.
17. Davis CC (1964) Evidence for the eutrophication of Lake Erie from phytoplankton records. Limnology and Oceanography, 9, 275-283.
18. Dennis B, Ponciano JM (2014) Density-dependent state-space model for population-abundance data with unequal time intervals. Ecology, 95, 2069-2076.
19. Elton CS (1924) Periodic fluctuations in the numbers of animals: their causes and effects. Journal of Experimental Biology, 2, 119-163.
20. Epps CW, Mccullough DR, Wehausen JD, Bleich VC, Rechel JL (2004) Effects of climate change on population persistence of desert-dwelling mountain sheep in California. Conservation Biology, 18, 102-113.
21. Erb LP, Ray C, Guralnick R (2011) On the generality of a climate-mediated shift in the distribution of the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Ecology, 92, 1730-1735.
22. Floyd CH (2004) Marmot distribution and habitat associations in the Great Basin. Western North American Naturalist, 64, 471-481.
23. Freeman BG, Class Freeman AM (2014) Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 4490-4494.
24. Gerber LR, Demaster DP, Kareiva PM (1999) Gray whales and the value of monitoring data in implementing the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conservation Biology, 13, 1215-1219.
25. Gonzalez-Suarez M, Mccluney KE, Aurioles D, Gerber LR (2006) Incorporating uncertainty in spatial structure for viability predictions: a case study of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus californianus). Animal Conservation, 9, 219-227.
26. Hanski I, Gilpin ME (1997) Metapopulation Biology: Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution. Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
27. Hanski I, Simberloff D (1997) The metapopulation approach, its history, conceptual domain, and application to conservation. In: Metapopulation Biology: Ecology, Genetics, and Evolution (eds Hanski I, Gilpin ME), pp. 5-26. Academic Press, Inc., San Diego, CA.
28. Harper JL (1977) Population Biology of Plants. Academic Press, London.
29. Herrera CM (1998) Population-level estimates of interannual variability in seed production: what do they actually tell us? Oikos, 82, 612-616.
30. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Thomas CD (2005) A northward shift of range margins in British Odonata. Global Change Biology, 11, 502-506.
31. Hubbard DM, Dugan JE, Schooler NK, Viola SM (2014) Local extirpations and regional declines of endemic upper beach invertebrates in southern California. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 150(Part A), 67-75.
32. Huxman TE, Barron-Gafford G, Gerst KL, Angert AL, Tyler AP, Venable DL (2008) Photosynthetic resource-use efficiency and demographic variability in desert winter annual plants. Ecology, 89, 1554-1563.
33. Inouye DW, Barr B, Armitage KB, Inouye BD (2000) Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 97, 1630-1633.
34. Koontz TL, Shepherd UL, Marshall D (2001) The effect of climate change on Merriam's kangaroo rat, Dipodomys merriami. Journal of Arid Environments, 49, 581-591.
35. Lande R, Orzack SH (1988) Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 85, 7418-7421.
36. Larrucea ES, Brussard PF (2008) Shift in location of pygmy rabbit (Brachylagus idahoensis) habitat in response to changing environments. Journal of Arid Environments, 72, 1636-1643.
37. Lebreton J-D, Burnham KP, Clobert J, Anderson DR (1992) Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals: a unified approach with case studies. Ecological Monographs, 62, 67-118.
38. Lenoir J, Gegout JC, Marquet PA, De Ruffray P, Brisse H (2008) A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science, 320, 1768-1771.
39. Lenoir J, Gégout J-C, Guisan A et al. (2010) Going against the flow: potential mechanisms for unexpected downslope range shifts in a warming climate. Ecography, 33, 295-303.
40. Liebhold AM (1992) Are North American populations of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) bimodal? Environmental Entomology, 21, 221-229.
41. MacArthur RH (1972) Geographical Ecology. Harper and Rowe Publishers, New York, NY.
42. Matlack RS, Kaufman DW, Kaufman GA, Mcmillan BR, O'Shea TJ (2002) Long-term variation in abundance of Elliot's short-tailed shrew (Blarina hylophaga) in tallgrass prairie. Journal of Mammalogy, 83, 280-289.
43. McCain CM, King SRB (2014) Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change. Global Change Biology, 20, 1760-1769.
44. Melbourne BA, Hastings A (2008) Extinction risk depends strongly on factors contributing to stochasticity. Nature, 454, 100-103.
45. Mieszkowska N, Kendall MA, Hawkins SJ, Leaper R, Williamson P, Hardman-Mountford NJ, Southward AJ (2006) Changes in the range of some common rocky shore species in Britain - a response to climate change? Hydrobiologia, 555, 241-251.
46. Moritz C, Patton JL, Conroy CJ, Parra JL, White GC, Beissinger SR (2008) Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science, 322, 261-264.
47. Morris WF, Doak DF (2003) Quantitative Conservation Biology: Theory and Practice of Population Viability Analysis. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.
48. Myers P, Lundrigan BL, Hoffman SMG, Haraminac AP, Seto SH (2009) Climate-induced changes in the small mammal communities of the Northern Great Lakes Region. Global Change Biology, 15, 1434-1454.
49. Nicholls AO, Viljoen PC, Knight MH, Van Jaarsveld AS (1996) Evaluating population persistence of censused and unmanaged herbivore populations from the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Biological Conservation, 76, 57-67.
50. Otis DL, Burnham KP, White GC, Anderson DR (1978) Statistical inference from capture data on closed animal populations. Wildlife Monographs, 62, 3-135.
51. Ozgul A, Childs DZ, Oli MK et al. (2010) Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change. Nature, 466, 482-485.
52. Parmesan C (1996) Climate and species' range. Nature, 382, 765-766.
53. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
54. Perrins CM, Lebreton JD, Hirons GJM (1991) Bird Population Studies: Relevance to Conservation and Management. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
55. Pimm SL, Redfearn A (1988) The variability of population densities. Nature, 334, 613-614.
56. Post E, Forchhammer MC (2008) Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 363, 2367-2373.
57. Ricker WE (1954) Stock and recruitment. Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada, 11, 559-623.
58. Ricklefs RE (1990) Ecology. W. H. Freeman and Company, New York, NY.
59. Rowe RJ, Terry RC, Rickart EA (2011) Environmental change and declining resource availability for small-mammal communities in the Great Basin. Ecology, 92, 1366-1375.
60. Royle JA, Nichols JD (2003) Estimating abundance from repeated presence-absence data or point counts. Ecology, 84, 777-790.
61. Sæther BE, Engen S (2002) Pattern of variation in avian population growth rates. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 357, 1185-1195.
62. Seber GAF (1982) The Estimation of Animal Abundance and Related Parameters. MacMillan Press, New York, NY.
63. See KE, Holmes EE (2015) Reducing bias and improving precision in species extinction forecasts. Ecological Applications, 25, 1157-1165.
64. Sexton JP, Mcintyre PJ, Angert AL, Rice KJ (2009) Evolution and ecology of species range limits. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 40, 415-436.
65. Taylor SA, White TA, Hochachka WM, Ferretti V, Curry RL, Lovette I (2014) Climate-mediated movement of an avian hybrid zone. Current Biology, 24, 671-676.
66. Thomas CD, Franco AMA, Hill JK (2006) Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 21, 415-416.
67. Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C (2009) Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 19637-19643.
68. Tingley MW, Koo MS, Moritz C, Rush AC, Beissinger SR (2012) The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges. Global Change Biology, 18, 3279-3290.
69. Towns L, Derocher AE, Stirling I, Lunn NJ (2010) Changes in land distribution of Polar bears in Western Hudson Bay. Arctic, 63, 206-212.
70. Uvarov BP (1977) Grasshoppers and Locusts. A Handbook of General Acridology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
71. Varley GC (1949) Population changes in German forest pests. Journal of Animal Ecology, 18, 117-122.
72. Vucetich JA, Waite TA, Qvarnemark L, Ibargüen S (2000) Population variability and extinction risk. Conservation Biology, 14, 1704-1714.
73. Walther GR, Berger S, Sykes MT (2005) An ecological 'footprint' of climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 272, 1427-1432.
74. Wang GM, Hobbs NT, Slade NA et al. (2013) Comparative population dynamics of large and small mammals in the Northern Hemisphere: deterministic and stochastic forces. Ecography, 36, 439-446.
75. Williams BK, Nichols JD, Conroy MJ (2002) Analysis and Management of Animal Populations. Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
76. Wittwer T, O'Hara RB, Caplat P, Hickler T, Smith HG (2015) Long-term population dynamics of a migrant bird suggests interaction of climate change and competition with resident species. Oikos, 124, 1151-1159.