North by North-West: Climate change and directions of density shifts in birds

Global Change Biology

Volumn 22, Issue 3, 2016, Pages 1121-1129

  Lehikoinen, Aleksi ^a   Virkkala, Raimo ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

^b FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE   (Finland)

Author keywords

Distribution changes; Ecological traits; Global warming; Habitat selection; Monitoring censuses; Species distribution models

Indexed keywords

BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; GLOBAL WARMING; HABITAT SELECTION; HABITAT TYPE; MIGRATORY BEHAVIOR; MONITORING; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION;

FINLAND;

AVES;

ANIMAL; ANIMAL DISPERSAL; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; FINLAND; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION DENSITY; POPULATION MIGRATION;

ANIMAL DISTRIBUTION; ANIMAL MIGRATION; ANIMALS; BIRDS; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; FINLAND; POPULATION DENSITY;

EID: 84959491258     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13150     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Berens P (2009) CircStat: a Matlab toolbox for circular statistics. Journal of Statistical Software, 31, Available at www.jstatsoft.org/v31/i10.
2. Berthold P (2001) Bird Migration. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
3. Booth DJ, Bond N, Maccreadie P (2011) Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change. Marine and Freshwater Research, 62, 1027-1042.
4. Breed GA, Stichter S, Crone EE (2013) Climate-driven changes in northeastern US butterfly communities. Nature Climate Change, 3, 142-145.
5. Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Richardson AJ et al. (2014) Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature, 507, 492-495.
6. Chen I-C, Hill JK, Ohlemuller R, Roy DB, Thomas CD (2011) Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science, 333, 1024-1026.
7. Cramp S, Simmons KEL, Perrins CM (1977-1994) Handbook of the Birds of Europe, Middle East and North America: Birds of the Western Palaearctic. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
8. Devictor V, Julliard R, Couvet D, Jiguet F (2008) Birds are tracking climate change, but not fast enough. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 254, 2743-2748.
9. Devictor V, van Swaay C, Brereton T et al. (2012) Differences in the climate debt of birds and butterflies at a continental scale. Nature Climate Change, 2, 121-124.
10. Donald PF, Green RE, Heath MF (2001) Agricultural intensification and the collapse of Europe's farmland bird populations. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 268, 25-29.
11. Eglington SM, Pearce-Higgins JW (2012) Disentangling the relative importance of changes in climate and land-use intensity in driving recent bird population trends. PLoS One, 7, e30407.
12. Felton A, Lindbladh M, Elmberg J et al. (2014) Projecting impacts of anthropogenic climatic change on the bird communities of southern Swedish spruce monocultures: will the species poor get poorer? Ornis Fennica, 91, 1-13.
13. Gillings S, Balmer DE, Fuller RJ (2015) Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain. Global Change Biology, 21, 2155-2168.
14. Hickling R, Roy DB, Hill JK, Fox R, Thomas CD (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology, 12, 450-455.
15. Hockey PAR, Sirami C, Ridley AR, Midgley GF, Babiker HA (2011) Interrogating recent range change in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution. Diversity and Distributions, 17, 254-261.
16. Huntley B, Green RE, Collingham YC, Willis SG (2007) A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds. Durham University, The RSPB and Lynx Edicions, Barcelona.
17. Järvinen O (1976) Estimating relative densities of breeding birds by the line transect method. II. Comparison between two methods. Ornis Scandinavica, 7, 43-48.
18. Järvinen O, Väisänen RA (1975) Estimating relative densities of breeding birds by the line transect method. Oikos, 26, 316-322.
19. Järvinen O, Väisänen RA (1976a) Finnish line transect censuses. Ornis Fennica, 53, 115-118.
20. Järvinen O, Väisänen RA (1976b) Estimating relative densities of breeding birds by the line transect method. IV. Geographical constancy of the proportion of main belt observations. Ornis Fennica, 53, 87-91.
21. Järvinen O, Väisänen RA (1981) Methodology for censusing land bird faunas in large regions. Studies in Avian Biology, 6, 146-151.
22. Järvinen O, Väisänen RA (1983) Correction coefficients for line transect censuses of breeding birds. Ornis Fennica, 60, 97-104.
23. Järvinen O, Koskimies P, Väisänen RA (1991) Line transect census of breeding land birds. In: Monitoring Bird Populations: A Manual of Methods Applied in Finland (eds Koskimies P, Väisänen RA), pp. 33-40. Zoological Museum, Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki.
24. Jiguet F, Devictor V, Ottvall R, Van Turnhout C, Van der Jeugd H, Lindström Å (2010) Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 277, 3601-3618.
25. Jonzén N, Lindén A, Ergon T et al. (2006) Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds. Science, 312, 1959-1961.
26. Kelly AE, Goulden ML (2008) Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 11823-11826.
27. Kujala H, Vepsäläinen V, Zuckerberg B, Brommer JE (2013) Range margin shifts of birds revisited - the role of spatiotemporally varying survey effort. Global Change Biology, 19, 420-430.
28. La Sorte FA, Jetz W (2012) Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change. Journal of Animal Ecology, 81, 914-925.
29. Laaksonen T, Lehikoinen A (2013) Population trends in boreal birds: continuing declines in agricultural, northern, and long-distance migrant species. Biological Conservation, 168, 99-107.
30. Lehikoinen A (2013) Climate change, phenology and species detectability in a monitoring scheme. Population Ecology, 55, 315-323.
31. Lehikoinen E, Sparks TH (2010) Changes in migration. In: Effects of Climate Change on Birds (eds Møller A, Fiedler W, Berthold P), pp. 89-112. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
32. Lehikoinen A, Jaatinen K, Vähätalo AV et al. (2013) Rapid climate-driven shifts in wintering distributions of three common waterbird species. Global Change Biology, 19, 2071-2081.
33. Lehikoinen A, Green M, Husby M, Kålås JA, Lindtröm Å (2014) Common montane birds are declining in northern Europe. Journal of Avian Biology, 45, 3-14.
34. Maclean IMD, Austin GE, Rehfisch MM et al. (2008) Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter. Global Change Biology, 14, 2489-2500.
35. Otterlind G (1954) Flyttning och utbredning. Vår Fågelvärld, 13, 1-261.
36. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37-42.
37. Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C et al. (1999) Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature, 399, 579-583.
38. Pavón-Jordán D, Fox AD, Clausen P et al. (2015) Climate driven changes in winter abundance of a migratory waterbird in relation to EU protected areas. Diversity and Distributions, 21, 571-582.
39. Pearce-Higgins J, Green RE (2014) Birds and Climate Change: Impacts and Conservation Responses. University of Cambridge, Cambridge.
40. Pouzols FM, Toivonen T, Di Minin E et al. (2014) Global protected area expansion is compromised by protected land-use and parochialism. Nature, 516, 383-386.
41. Pöyry J, Luoto M, Heikkinen RK, Kuussaari M, Saarinen K (2009) Species traits explain recent range shifts of Finnish butterflies. Global Change Biology, 15, 732-743.
42. Rice WR (1989) Analyzing tables of statistical tests. Evolution, 43, 223-225.
43. Rintala J, Tiainen J (2007) A model incorporating a reduction in carrying capacity translates brood size trends into a population decline: the case of Finnish starlings, 1951-2005. Oikos, 117, 47-59.
44. Sanderson FJ, Donald PF, Pain DJ, Burfield IJ, van Bommel FPJ (2006) Long-term population declines in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds. Biological Conservation, 131, 93-105.
45. Tayleur C, Caplat P, Massinino D, Johnston A, Jonzén N, Smith HG, Lindström Å (2015) Swedish birds are tracking temperature but not rainfall: evidence from a decade of abundance changes. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24, 859-872.
46. Thomas CD (2010) Climate, climate change and range boundaries. Diversity and Distributions, 16, 488-495.
47. Thomas CD, Lennon JJ (1999) Birds extend their ranges northwards. Nature, 399, 213.
48. Väisänen RA, Lammi E, Koskimies P (1998) Distribution, Numbers and Population Changes of Finnish Breeding Birds. Otava, Helsinki.
49. Vaitkuviene D, Gagys M, Bartkeviciene G, Romanovskaja D (2015) The effect of weather variables on the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia) spring migration phenology. Ornis Fennica, 92, 43-52.
50. Valkama J, Vepsäläinen V, Lehikoinen A (2011) The Third Finnish Breeding Bird Atlas. Finnish Museum of Natural History and Ministry of Environment, Helsinki. Available at http://atlas3.lintuatlas.fi/english (accessed 11 August 2015).
51. Valkama J, Saurola P, Lehikoinen A, Lehikoinen E, Piha M, Sola P, Velmala W (2014) The Finnish Bird Ringing Atlas. Vol. II. Finnish Museum of Natural History and Ministry of Environment, Helsinki.
52. Virkkala R, Lehikoinen A (2014) Patterns of climate-induced density shifts of species: poleward shifts faster in northern boreal birds than in southern birds. Global Change Biology, 20, 2995-3003.
53. Virkkala R, Rajasärkkä A (2011) Northward density shift of bird species in boreal protected areas due to climate change. Boreal Environment Research, 16(suppl. B), 2-13.
54. Virkkala R, Rajasärkkä A, Väisänen RA, Vickholm M, Virolainen E (1994) The significance of protected areas for the land birds of southern Finland. Conservation Biology, 8, 532-544.
55. Virkkala R, Heikkinen RK, Leikola N, Luoto M (2008) Projected large-scale range reductions of northern-boreal land bird species due to climate change. Biological Conservation, 141, 1343-1353.
56. Virkkala R, Pöyry J, Heikkinen RK, Lehikoinen A, Valkama J (2014) Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern. Ecology and Evolution, 4, 2991-3003.
57. Zuckerberg B, Woods AM, Porter WF (2009) Poleward shifts in breeding bird distributions in New York State. Global Change Biology, 15, 1866-1883.