Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: A modelling study

The Lancet

Volumn 387, Issue 10031, 2016, Pages 1937-1946

  Springmann, Marco ^a   Mason D'Croz, Daniel ^c   Robinson, Sherman ^c   Garnett, Tara ^b   Godfray, H Charles J ^b   Gollin, Douglas ^b   Rayner, Mike ^a   Ballon, Paola ^b   Scarborough, Peter ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BODY WEIGHT; CAUSE OF DEATH; CEREBROVASCULAR ACCIDENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTROLLED STUDY; FOOD AVAILABILITY; FOOD INDUSTRY; FOOD INTAKE; HEALTH; HUMAN; ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MORTALITY; NEOPLASM; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; UNDERWEIGHT; AGRICULTURE; CALORIC INTAKE; CATERING SERVICE; DEVELOPED COUNTRY; DEVELOPING COUNTRY; DIET; HEALTH STATUS; PHYSIOLOGY; SOCIOECONOMICS; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; THEORETICAL MODEL; TRENDS;

AGRICULTURE; BODY WEIGHT; CAUSE OF DEATH; CLIMATE CHANGE; DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; DIET; ENERGY INTAKE; FOOD SUPPLY; GLOBAL HEALTH; HEALTH STATUS; HUMANS; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS;

EID: 84959261552     PISSN: 01406736     EISSN: 1474547X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01156-3     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. A Costello, M Abbas, A Allen et al. Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission Lancet 373 2009 1693 1733
2. KR Smith, A Woodward, D Campbell-Lendrum et al. Human health: impacts, adaptation and co-benefits Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Interngovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA 709 754
3. JR Porter, L Xie, A Challinor et al. Food security and food production systems Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA 485 533
4. U Confalonieri, B Menne, R Akhtar et al. Human health Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK 391 431
5. C Rosenzweig, J Elliott, D Deryng et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111 2014 3268 3273
6. GC Nelson, H Valin, RD Sands et al. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks Proc Natl Acad Sci 111 2014 3274 3279
7. GC Nelson, MW Rosegrant, A Palazzo et al. Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: scenarios, results, policy options 2010 International Food Policy Research Institute Washington, DC
8. T Wheeler, J von Braun Climate change impacts on global food security Science 341 2013 508 513
9. AD Dangour, R Green, B Häsler, J Rushton, B Shankar, J Waage Linking agriculture and health in low-and middle-income countries: an interdisciplinary research agenda Proc Nutr Soc 71 2012 222 228
10. S Hawkesworth, AD Dangour, D Johnston et al. Feeding the world healthily: the challenge of measuring the effects of agriculture on health Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 365 2010 3083 3097
11. R Nugent Bringing agriculture to the table: how agriculture and food can play a role in preventing chronic disease 2011 The Chicago Council on Global Affairs Chicago
12. WHO Diet, nutrition, and the prevention of chronic diseases: report of a WHO Study Group 1990 World Health Organization Geneva
13. SS Lim, T Vos, AD Flaxman et al. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Lancet 380 2012 2224 2260
14. R Lozano, M Naghavi, K Foreman et al. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Lancet 380 2012 2095 2128
15. H Valin, RD Sands, D van der Mensbrugghe et al. The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models Agric Econ 45 2014 51 67
16. J Kearney Food consumption trends and drivers Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 365 2010 2793 2807
17. C Müller, RD Robertson Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling Agric Econ 45 2014 37 50
18. L Dauchet, P Amouyel, J Dallongeville Fruit and vegetable consumption and risk of stroke: a meta-analysis of cohort studies Neurology 65 2005 1193 1197
19. L Dauchet, P Amouyel, S Hercberg, J Dallongeville Fruit and vegetable consumption and risk of coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis of cohort studies J Nutr 136 2006 2588 2593
20. World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research Food, nutrition, physical activity, and the prevention of cancer: a global perspective 2007 American Institute for Cancer Research Washington, DC
21. R Micha, SK Wallace, D Mozaffarian Red and processed meat consumption and risk of incident coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis Circulation 121 2010 2271 2283
22. G-C Chen, D-B Lv, Z Pang, Q-F Liu Red and processed meat consumption and risk of stroke: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies Eur J Clin Nutr 67 2013 91 95
23. A Berrington de Gonzalez, P Hartge, JR Cerhan et al. Body-mass index and mortality among 1.46 million white adults N Engl J Med 363 2010 2211 2219
24. Prospective Studies Collaboration G Whitlock, S Lewington et al. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies Lancet 373 2009 1083 1096
25. MW Rosengrant, C Ringler, Msangi et al. International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): model description 2012 International Food Policy Research Institute Washington
26. S Robinson, D Mason D'Croz, S Islam et al. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): model description for version 3. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1483. 2015. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/129825 (accessed Jan 18, 2016).
27. KL Ebi, S Hallegatte, T Kram et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions Clim Change 122 2013 363 372
28. DP van Vuuren, E Kriegler, BC O'Neill et al. A new scenario framework for climate change research: scenario matrix architecture Clim Change 122 2013 373 386
29. J Chateau, R Dellink, E Lanzi, B Magne Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=ENV/EPOC/WPCID%282012%296&docLanguage=En 2012 (accessed Jan 18, 2015).
30. S KC, W Lutz The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: population scenarios by age, sex, and level of education for all countries to 2100 Glob Environ Change 2014 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004 published online July 4.
31. BC O'Neill, T Carter, KL Ebi et al. Meeting report of the workshop on the nature and use of new socioeconomic pathways for climate change research http://hal.cirad.fr/hal-00801931/ 2012 (accessed Jan 17, 2015).
32. M Collins, R Knutti, JM Arblaster et al. Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013 Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA
33. DP Van Vuuren, J Edmonds, M Kainuma et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview Clim Change 109 2011 5 31
34. CD Jones, JK Hughes, N Bellouin et al. The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations Geosci Model Dev 4 2011 543 570
35. J-L Dufresne, M-A Foujols, S Denvil et al. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 Clim Dyn 40 2013 2123 2165
36. S Watanabe, T Hajima, K Sudo et al. MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments Geosci Model Dev 4 2011 845 872
37. JW Jones, G Hoogenboom, CH Porter et al. The DSSAT cropping system model Eur J Agron 18 2003 235 265
38. A Bondeau, PC Smith, S Zaehle et al. Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance Glob Change Biol 13 2007 679 706
39. J Gustavsson, C Cederberg, U Sonesson, R Van Otterdijk, A Meybeck Global food losses and food waste: extent, causes and prevention 2011 FAO Rome http://www.sidalc.net/cgi-bin/wxis.exe/?IsisScript=SIBE01.xis&method=post&formato=2&cantidad=1&expresion=mfn=028275 (accessed Oct 31, 2014).
40. TM Cover, JA Thomas Elements of information theory 2nd edn. 2006 John Wiley & Sons Hoboken, NJ
41. CJ Murray, M Ezzati, AD Lopez, A Rodgers, S Vander Hoorn Comparative quantification of health risks: conceptual framework and methodological issues Popul Health Metr 1 2003 1
42. P Scarborough, KE Nnoaham, D Clarke, S Capewell, M Rayner Modelling the impact of a healthy diet on cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality J Epidemiol Community Health 66 2012 420 426
43. M Ezzati, S Vander Hoorn, A Rodgers, AD Lopez, CD Mathers, CJ Murray Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors Lancet 362 2003 271 280
44. WHO Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s 2014 World Health Organization Geneva
45. KD Hall, J Guo, M Dore, CC Chow The progressive increase of food waste in America and its environmental impact PLoS One 4 2009 e7940
46. J Parfitt, M Barthel, S Macnaughton Food waste within food supply chains: quantification and potential for change to 2050 Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 365 2010 3065 3081