Increasing the value of uncertain weather and river forecasts for emergency managers

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 97, Issue 1, 2016, Pages 85-97

  Hoss, Frauke ^a,b   Fischbeck, Paul ^a,c  

^a CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; FORECASTING; MANAGERS; WEATHER INFORMATION SERVICES;

FORECAST INFORMATION; PERSONAL NETWORKS; PUBLIC SERVICES; SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS; UNCERTAINTY INFORMATIONS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 84959141208     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00275.1     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Arkansas Department of Emergency Management, 2014: Training plan: January 2014 update. ADEM Training Plan Rep. V2.5 Rv. Nov 2006, 58 pp.
2. Demargne, J., and Coauthors, 2014: The science of NOAA's operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 79-98, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00081.1.
3. Demeritt, D., H. Cloke, F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, J. Bartholmes, and M. H. Ramos, 2007: Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting. Environ. Hazards, 7, 115-127, doi:10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.001.
4. FEMA, 2014 Fiscal year 2014 training catalog: Train, exercise, educate. Emergency Management Institute Rep. [Available online at http://training.fema.gov.]
5. Golden, J. H., and C. R. Adams, 2000: The tornado problem: Forecast, warning, and response. Nat. Hazards Rev., 1, 107-118, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2000)1:2(107).
6. Hunemuller, T. J., 2010: Review and analysis of the National Weather Service river forecasts for the June 2008 eastern Iowa floods. Ph.D. thesis, University of Iowa.
7. IAEM 1990: Existing standards for local emergency management coordinators. International Association of Emergency Managers Rep.
8. -, 2014: Emergency program manager: Knowledges, skills, and abilities. FEMA, accessed 9 October 2014. [Available online at http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/edu/EMCompetencies.asp.]
9. Klein, R., and R. A. Pielke Jr., 2002a: Bad weather? Then sue the weatherman! Part I: Legal liability for public sector forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1791-1799, doi:10.1175/BAMS-83-12-1791.
10. -, and -, 2002b: Bad weather? Then sue the weatherman! Part II: Legal liability for private sector forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1801-1807, doi:10.1175/BAMS-83-12-1801.
11. Morss, R. E., 2010: Interactions among flood predictions, decisions, and outcomes: Synthesis of three cases. Nat. Hazards Rev., 11, 83-96, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000011.
12. -, and E. Wahl, 2007: An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood. Environ. Hazards, 7, 342-352, doi:10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.09.004.
13. -, O. V. Wilhelmi, M. W. Downton, and E. Gruntfest, 2005: Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making: Lessons from an interdisciplinary project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 1593-1601, doi:10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1593.
14. -, J. Demuth, and J. K. Lazo, 2008: Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: A survey of the U.S. public. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 974-991, doi:10.1175/2008WAF2007088.1.
15. -, J. K. Lazo, and J. L. Demuth, 2010: Examining the use of weather forecasts in decision scenarios: Results from a US survey with implications for uncertainty communication. Meteor. Appl., 17, 149-162, doi:10.1002/met.196.
16. National Hydrologic Warning Council 2002: Use and benefits of the National Weather Service river and flood forecasts. EASPE, accessed 19 February 2014 [Available online at www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ahps/AHPS%20Benefits.pdf.]
17. National Research Council, 2006: Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. National Academies Press, 112 pp. [Available online at www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record-id=11699&utm-expid=4418042-5.krRTDpXJQISoXLpdo-1Ynw.0.]
18. New York Appellate Division 1992: Lichult v. Reiss, 183 A.D.2d 1067. Accessed 4 March 2014 [Available online at https://scholar.google.com/scholar-case?case=9093875182234136223&q=weather+%22emergency+manager%22&hl=en&as-sdt=639.]
19. Nicholson, W. C., 2006: Chapter 14: Legal issues in emergency management. Fundamentals of Emergency Management, M. K. Lindell, C. S. Prater, and R. W. Perry, Eds., Federal Emergency Management Organization, 392-424. [Available online at http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/edu/fem.asp.]
20. NOAA/National Weather Service 2011: NWS river forecasting. Accessed 24 January 2014 [Available online at www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dvn/downloads/backgrounder-DVN-River-Forecasting.pdf.]
21. Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management 2009: Training requirements: Newly appointed Oklahoma emergency management directors. Accessed 10 February 2014 [Available online at www.ok.gov/OEM/Programs-&-Services/Training-Information/2009newdirector.html.]
22. Parker, D. J., and J. W. Handmer, 1998: The role of unofficial flood warning systems. J. Contingencies Crisis Manage., 6, 45-60, doi:10.1111/1468-5973.00067.
23. Penning-Rowsell, E. C., S. M. Tunstall, S. M. Tapsell, and D. J. Parker, 2000: The benefits of flood warnings: Real but elusive, and politically significant. Water Environ. J., 14, 7-14, doi:10.1111/j.1747-6593.2000.tb00219.x.
24. Pennsylvania Emergency Management Association, 2011: PEMA directive 2011-02: Emergency management certification and training requirements. Accessed 7 November 2011. [Available online at www.pema.pa.gov/Pages/Directives.aspx#.VVoslflVhBc.]
25. Perry, R. W., and J. M. Nigg, 1985: Emergency management for communicating hazard information. Public Adm. Rev., 45, 72-77. [Available online at www.jstor.org/stable/3135000.]
26. Pielke, R. A., 1999: Who decides? Forecasts and responsibilities in the 1997 Red River flood. Appl. Behav. Sci. Rev., 7, 83-101, doi:10.1016/S1068-8595(00)80012-4.
27. Rayner, S., D. Lach, and H. Ingram, 2005: Weather forecasts are for wimps: Why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Climatic Change, 69, 197-227, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-3148-z.
28. Swanson, H. D., 2000: The delicate art of practicing municipal law under conditions of hell and high water. N. D. Law Rev., 76, 487-510.
29. Verkade, J. S., and M. G. F. Werner, 2011: Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3751-3765, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3751-2011.
30. Weaver, J., L. C. Harkabus, J. Braun, S. Miller, R. Cox, J. Griffith, and R. J. Mazur, 2014: An overview of a demographic study of United States emergency managers. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 199-203, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00183.1.
31. Welles, E., S. Sorooshian, G. Carter, and B. Olsen, 2007: Hydrologic verification: A call for action and collaboration. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 503-511, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-4-503.