Estimated 10-year cardiovascular mortality seriously underestimates overall cardiovascular risk

Heart

Volumn 102, Issue 1, 2016, Pages 63-68

  Jørstad, Harald T ^a   Colkesen, Ersen B ^a   Boekholdt, S Matthijs ^a   Tijssen, Jan G ^a   Wareham, Nicholas J ^b   Khaw, Kay Tee ^c   Peters, Ron J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

^b ADDENBROOKE S HOSPITAL   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; ARTICLE; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; COHORT ANALYSIS; FEMALE; HOSPITALIZATION; HUMAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; POPULATION RESEARCH; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEX DIFFERENCE; AGE; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; COMORBIDITY; ENGLAND; EPIDEMIOLOGY; HEALTH STATUS; HEALTH SURVEY; KAPLAN MEIER METHOD; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; PREVALENCE; PROGNOSIS; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; SEX RATIO; TIME FACTOR;

ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGE FACTORS; AGED; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; COMORBIDITY; ENGLAND; FEMALE; HEALTH STATUS; HEALTH SURVEYS; HOSPITALIZATION; HUMANS; KAPLAN-MEIER ESTIMATE; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; PREVALENCE; PROGNOSIS; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; SEX DISTRIBUTION; SEX FACTORS; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84958889799     PISSN: 13556037     EISSN: 1468201X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2015-307668     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Graham I, Atar D, Borch-Johnsen K, et al. European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: Executive summary: Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and Other Societies on Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Clinical Practice (Constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts). Eur Heart J 2007; 28: 2375-414.
2. Perk J, De Backer G, Gohlke H, et al. European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (version 2012). Eur Heart J 2012; 33: 1635-701.
3. Vartiainen E, Jousilahti P, Alfthan G, et al. Cardiovascular risk factor changes in Finland, 1972-1997. Int J Epidemiol 2000; 29: 49-56.
4. Cooney MT, Dudina A, D'Agostino R, et al. Cardiovascular risk-estimation systems in primary prevention: Do they differ? Do they make a difference? Can we see the future? Circulation 2010; 122: 300-10.
5. D'Agostino RB, Vasan RS, Pencina MJ, et al. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: The Framingham Heart Study. Circulation 2008; 117: 743-53.
6. Day N, Oakes S, Luben R, et al. EPIC-Norfolk: Study design and characteristics of the cohort. European Prospective Investigation of Cancer. Br J Cancer 1999; 80 (Suppl 1): 95-103.
7. Boekholdt SM, Peters RJG, Day NE, et al. Macrophage migration inhibitory factor and the risk of myocardial infarction or death due to coronary artery disease in adults without prior myocardial infarction or stroke: The EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population study. Am J Med 2004; 117: 390-7.
8. Conroy RM, Pyörälä K, Fitzgerald AP, et al. Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: The SCORE project. Eur Heart J 2003; 24: 987-1003.
9. Mendis S, Puska P, Norrving B. Global atlas on cardiovascular disease prevention and control. World Health Organization, 2011.
10. Tunstall-Pedoe H, Kuulasmaa K, Mähönen M, et al. Contribution of trends in survival and coronary-event rates to changes in coronary heart disease mortality: 10-year results from 37 WHO MONICA project populations. Monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease. Lancet 1999; 353: 1547-57.
11. Hardoon SL, Whincup PH, Petersen I, et al. Trends in longer-term survival following an acute myocardial infarction and prescribing of evidenced-based medications in primary care in the UK from 1991: A longitudinal population-based study. J Epidemiol Community Health 2011; 65: 770-4.
12. van Dis I, Geleijnse JM, Boer JM, et al. Effect of including nonfatal events in cardiovascular risk estimation, illustrated with data from The Netherlands. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2014: 377-83.
13. Colhoun HM, Betteridge DJ, Durrington PN, et al. Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease with atorvastatin in type 2 diabetes in the Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS): Multicentre randomised placebo-controlled trial. Lancet 2004; 364: 685-96.
14. Collaboration CTTC, Baigent C, Blackwell L, et al. Efficacy and safety of more intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol: A meta-analysis of data from 170,000 participants in 26 randomised trials. Lancet 2010; 376: 1670-81.
15. Ridker PM, Danielson E, Fonseca FAH, et al. Rosuvastatin to prevent vascular events in men and women with elevated C-reactive protein. N Engl J Med 2008; 359: 2195-207.
16. Shepherd J, Cobbe SM, Ford I, et al. Prevention of coronary heart disease with pravastatin in men with hypercholesterolemia. West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study Group. N Engl J Med 1995; 333: 1301-7.
17. Final report on the aspirin component of the ongoing Physicians' Health Study. Steering Committee of the Physicians' Health Study Research Group. N Engl JMed 1989; 321: 129-35.
18. Peto R, Gray R, Collins R, et al. Randomised trial of prophylactic daily aspirin in British male doctors. Br Med J (Clin Res Ed) 1988; 296: 313-16.
19. Khaw K-T. Correspondence: Physicians' health study: Aspirin and primary preventions of coronary heart disease. N Engl J Med 1989; 321: 1825-6.
20. Greenland P, Knoll MD, Stamler J, et al. Major risk factors as antecedents of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease events. JAMA 2003; 290: 891-7.
21. Ferket BS, Colkesen EB, Visser JJ, et al. Systematic review of guidelines on cardiovascular risk assessment: Which recommendations should clinicians follow for a cardiovascular health check? Arch Intern Med 2010; 170: 27-40.
22. Berry JD, Dyer A, Cai X, et al. Lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease. N Engl J Med 2012; 366: 321-9.
23. Bennett N, Dodd T, Flatley F, et al. Health survey for England 1993. London: HMSO, 1995.
24. Jørstad HT, Colkesen EB, Minneboo M, et al. The Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) in a large UK population: 10-year follow-up in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study. Eur J Prev Cardiol 2015; 22: 119-26.