Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 47, Issue 9-10, 2016, Pages 3171-3190

  Vousdoukas, Michalis I ^a,b   Voukouvalas, Evangelos ^a   Annunziato, Alessandro ^a   Giardino, Alessio ^c   Feyen, Luc ^a  

^a JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF THE AEGEAN   (Greece)

^c DELTARES   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Climate change; CMIP5; Coastal hazard; Coastal inundation; Marine storms; Storm surge

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; COASTAL ZONE; EXTREME EVENT; FLOW MODELING; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; HYDRODYNAMICS; STORM SURGE; TIDE GAUGE; WATER LEVEL;

EUROPE;

EID: 84958824810     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3019-5     Document Type: Article

References (88)

1. Alfieri L, Burek P, Feyen L, Forzieri G (2015) Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19:2247–2260
2. Almeida LP, Vousdoukas MI, Ferreira Ó, Rodrigues BA, Matias A (2012) Thresholds for storm impacts on an exposed sandy coastal area in southern Portugal. Geomorphology 143–144:3–12
3. Androulidakis YS, Kombiadou KD, Makris CV, Baltikas VN, Krestenitis YN (2015) Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: variability and trends under future climatic conditions. Dyn Atmos Oceans 71:56–82
4. Arns A, Wahl T, Dangendorf S, Jensen J (2015) The impact of sea level rise on storm surge water levels in the northern part of the German Bight. Coastal Eng 96:118–131
5. Baerens C, Hupfer P (1999) Extremwasserstände an der deutschen Ostseeküste nach Beobachtungen und in einem Treibhausgasszenario. Die Kuste 61
6. Bernier NB, Thompson KR (2007) Tide-surge interaction off the east coast of Canada and northeastern United States. J Geophys Res Oceans 112:C06008
7. Bertin X, Bruneau N, Breilh J-F, Fortunato AB, Karpytchev M (2012) Importance of wave age and resonance in storm surges: the case Xynthia, Bay of Biscay. Ocean Model 42:16–30
8. Bertin X, Li K, Roland A, Zhang YJ, Breilh JF, Chaumillon E (2014) A modeling-based analysis of the flooding associated with Xynthia, central Bay of Biscay. Coastal Eng 94:80–89
9. Breilh JF, Chaumillon E, Bertin X, Gravelle M (2013) Assessment of static flood modeling techniques: application to contrasting marshes flooded during Xynthia (western France). Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1595–1612
10. Brown J, Souza A, Wolf J (2010) Surge modelling in the eastern Irish Sea: present and future storm impact. Ocean Dyn 60:227–236
11. Brown J, Wolf J, Souza A (2012) Past to future extreme events in Liverpool Bay: model projections from 1960–2100. Clim Change 111:365–391
12. Burcharth HF, Lykke Andersen T, Lara JL (2014) Upgrade of coastal defence structures against increased loadings caused by climate change: a first methodological approach. Coastal Eng 87:112–121
13. Calafat FM, Avgoustoglou E, Jordà G, Flocas H, Zodiatis G, Tsimplis MN, Kouroutzoglou J (2014) The ability of a barotropic model to simulate sea level extremes of meteorological origin in the Mediterranean Sea, including those caused by explosive cyclones. J Geophys Res Oceans 119:7840–7853
14. Cavaleri L, Bertotti L (2004) Accuracy of the modelled wind and wave fields in enclosed seas. Tellus A 56(2):167–175
15. Church J, White N (2011) Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surv Geophys 32:585–602
16. Ciavola P, Ferreira O, Haerens P, Van Koningsveld M, Armaroli C (2011) Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project. Environ Sci Policy 14:924–933
17. Cid A, Castanedo S, Abascal A, Menéndez M, Medina R (2014) A high resolution hindcast of the meteorological sea level component for Southern Europe: the GOS dataset. Clim Dyn 43:2167–2184
18. Coles SG (2001) An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer, London
19. Conte D, Lionello P (2013) Characteristics of large positive and negative surges in the Mediterranean Sea and their attenuation in future climate scenarios. Global Planet Change 111:159–173
20. Costanza R (1999) The ecological, economic, and social importance of the oceans. Ecol Econ 31:199–213
21. Dangendorf S, Müller-Navarra S, Jensen J, Schenk F, Wahl T, Weisse R (2014a) North sea storminess from a novel storm surge record since AD 1843. J Clim 27:3582–3595
22. Dangendorf S, Wahl T, Nilson E, Klein B, Jensen J (2014b) A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections. Clim Dyn 43:447–467
23. Davini P, Cagnazzo C (2014) On the misinterpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 43:1497–1511
24. Dean RG (1991) Equilibrium beach profiles: characteristics and applications. J. Coast. Res. 7:53–84
25. Debernard JB, Røed LP (2008) Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the Northern Seas: a revisit. Tellus A 60:427–438
26. Debernard J, Sætra Ø, Røed LP (2002) Future wind, wave and storm surge climate in the northern North Atlantic. Clim Res 23:39–49
27. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut JN, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597
28. Deltares (2014) Delft3D-FLOW: simulation of multi-dimensional hydrodynamic flows and transport phenomena, including sediments, User Manual. Deltares, Delft
29. Ferreira Ó, Vousdoukas MV, Ciavola P (2009) MICORE Review of Climate Change Impacts on Storm Occurrence (Open access, Deliverable WP1.4). https://micore.eu/area.php?idarea=28, p 125
30. Flather RA, Williams JA (2000) Climate change effects on storm surges: methodologies and results. In: Beersma J, Agnew M, Viner D, Hulme M (eds) Climate scenarios for water-related and coastal impact—ECLAT-2 Workshop Report KNMI, The Netherlands, pp 66–78
31. Gaslikova L, Grabemann I, Groll N (2013) Changes in North Sea storm surge conditions for four transient future climate realizations. Nat Hazards 66:1501–1518
32. Gillett NP, Fyfe JC (2013) Annular mode changes in the CMIP5 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 40:1189–1193
33. Gräwe U, Burchard H (2012) Storm surges in the Western Baltic Sea: the present and a possible future. Clim Dyn 39:165–183
34. Grillakis MG, Koutroulis AG, Tsanis IK (2013) Multisegment statistical bias correction of daily GCM precipitation output. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:3150–3162
35. Haerter JO, Hagemann S, Moseley C, Piani C (2011) Climate model bias correction and the role of timescales. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:1065–1079
36. Hamdi Y, Bardet L, Duluc CM, Rebour V (2014) Extreme storm surges: a comparative study of frequency analysis approaches. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:2053–2067
37. Hinkel J, Lincke D, Vafeidis AT, Perrette M, Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ, Marzeion B, Fettweis X, Ionescu C, Levermann A (2014) Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111:3292–3297
38. Hogarth P (2014) Preliminary analysis of acceleration of sea level rise through the twentieth century using extended tide gauge data sets (August 2014). J Geophys Res Oceans 119:7645–7659
39. Hoggart SPG, Hanley ME, Parker DJ, Simmonds DJ, Bilton DT, Filipova-Marinova M, Franklin EL, Kotsev I, Penning-Rowsell EC, Rundle SD, Trifonova E, Vergiev S, White AC, Thompson RC (2014) The consequences of doing nothing: the effects of seawater flooding on coastal zones. Coastal Eng 87:169–182
40. Howard T, Lowe J, Horsburgh K (2010) Interpreting century-scale changes in southern north sea storm surge climate derived from coupled model simulations. J Clim 23:6234–6247
41. Howard T, Pardaens AK, Bamber JL, Ridley J, Spada G, Hurkmans RTWL, Lowe JA, Vaughan D (2014) Sources of 21st century regional sea-level rise along the coast of northwest Europe. Ocean Sci 10:473–483
42. Hunter JR, Church JA, White NJ, Zhang X (2013) Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise. Ocean Eng 71:17–27
43. IPCC (2013) Summary for policy makers. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 3–29
44. Izaguirre C, Méndez FJ, Espejo A, Losada IJ, Reguero BG (2013) Extreme wave climate changes in Central-South America. Clim Change 119:277–290
45. Jevrejeva S, Moore JC, Grinsted A, Matthews AP, Spada G (2014) Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807. Global Planet Change 113:11–22
46. Johansson MM, Pellikka H, Kahma KK, Ruosteenoja K (2014) Global sea level rise scenarios adapted to the Finnish coast. J Mar Syst 129:35–46
47. Jordà G, Gomis D, Álvarez-Fanjul E, Somot S (2012) Atmospheric contribution to Mediterranean and nearby Atlantic sea level variability under different climate change scenarios. Global Planet Change 80–81:198–214
48. Knutti R, Sedlacek J (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Change 3:369–373
49. Lionello P, Galati MB, Elvini E (2012) Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral. Phys Chem Earth Parts A/B/C 40–41:86–92
50. Losada IJ, Reguero BG, Méndez FJ, Castanedo S, Abascal AJ, Mínguez R (2013) Long-term changes in sea-level components in Latin America and the Caribbean. Global Planet Change 104:34–50
51. Lowe JA, Gregory JM (2005) The effects of climate change on storm surges around the United Kingdom. Philos Trans R Soc A Math Phys Eng Sci 363:1313–1328
52. Lowe JA, Gregory JM, Flather RA (2001) Changes in the occurrence of storm surges around the United Kingdom under a future climate scenario using a dynamic storm surge model driven by the Hadley Centre climate models. Clim Dyn 18:179–188
53. Lowe JA, Howard TP, Pardaens A, Tinker J, Holt J, Wakelin S, Milne G, Leake J, Wolf J, Horsburgh K, Reeder T, Jenkins G, Ridley J, Dye S, Bradley S (2009) UK Climate Projections science report: Marine and coastal projections. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
54. Lowe JA, Woodworth PL, Knutson T, McDonald RE, McInnes KL, Woth K, von Storch H, Wolf J, Swail V, Bernier NB, Gulev S, Horsburgh KJ, Unnikrishnan AS, Hunter JR, Weisse R (2010) Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves. Understanding sea-level rise and variability. Wiley-Blackwell, London, pp 326–375
55. Marcos M, Jordà G, Gomis D, Pérez B (2011) Changes in storm surges in southern Europe from a regional model under climate change scenarios. Global Planet Change 77:116–128
56. Marcos M, Chust G, Jorda G, Caballero A (2012) Effect of sea level extremes on the western Basque coast during the 21st century. Clim Res 51:237–248
57. Meier HEM (2006) Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: a dynamical downscaling approach using two global models and two emission scenarios. Clim Dyn 27:39–68
58. Meier HEM, Broman B, KjellstrÃm E (2004) Simulated sea level in past and future climates of the Baltic Sea. Clim Res 27:59–75
59. Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K, Daniel JS, Kainuma MLT, Lamarque JF, Matsumoto K, Montzka SA, Raper SCB, Riahi K, Thomson A, Velders GJM, van Vuuren DPP (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change 109:213–241
60. Mel R, Sterl A, Lionello P (2013) High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:1135–1142
61. Méndez FJ, Menéndez M, Luceño A, Losada IJ (2007) Analyzing monthly extreme sea levels with a time-dependent GEV model. J Atmos Oceanic Technol 24:894–911
62. Menéndez M, Woodworth PL (2010) Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge data set
63. Met Office, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (2014) The recent storms and floods in the UK. p 29
64. Nicholls RJ, Hanson SE, Lowe JA, Warrick RA, Lu X, Long AJ (2014) Sea-level scenarios for evaluating coastal impacts. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 5:129–150
65. Pardaens AK, Lowe JA, Brown S, Nicholls RJ, de Gusmão D (2011) Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions. Geophys Res Lett 38:L12604
66. Pawlowicz R, Beardsley B, Lentz S (2002) Classical tidal harmonic analysis including error estimates in MATLAB using T_TIDE. Comput Geosci 28:929–937
67. Perez J, Menendez M, Mendez F, Losada I (2014) Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region. Clim Dyn 43:2663–2680
68. Pérez J, Méndez F, Menéndez M, Losada I (2014) ESTELA: a method for evaluating the source and travel time of the wave energy reaching a local area. Ocean Dyn 64:1181–1191
69. Roelvink D, Reniers A, van Dongeren AP, de Vries JVT, McCall R, Lescinski J (2009) Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands. Coastal Eng 56:1133–1152
70. Sembiring L, van Ormondt M, van Dongeren A, Roelvink D (2015) A validation of an operational wave and surge prediction system for the Dutch coast. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 15:1231–1242
71. Serafin KA, Ruggiero P (2014) Simulating extreme total water levels using a time-dependent, extreme value approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 119:6305–6329
72. Sterl A, van den Brink H, de Vries H, Haarsma R, van Meijgaard E (2009) An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate. Ocean Sci 5:369–378
73. Suursaar Ü, Jaagus J, Tõnisson H (2015) How to quantify long-term changes in coastal sea storminess? Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 156:31–41
74. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2011) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498
75. Tol RSJ (2009) Economics of Sea Level Rise. In: John HS, Karl KT, Steve AT (eds) Encyclopedia of ocean sciences, 2nd edn. Academic Press, Oxford, pp 197–200
76. Troccoli A, Zambon F, Hodges K, Marani M (2012) Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change. Clim Change 113:1065–1079
77. Ullmann A, Monbaliu J (2010) Changes in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and sea-surge variations along the Belgian coast during the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 30:558–568
78. Vousdoukas MI, Almeida LP, Ferreira Ó (2012) Beach erosion and recovery during consecutive storms at a steep-sloping, meso-tidal beach. Earth Surf Process Landforms 37:583–691
79. Wang S, McGrath R, Hanafin J, Lynch P, Semmler T, Nolan P (2008) The impact of climate change on storm surges over Irish waters. Ocean Model 25:83–94
80. Wang XL, Feng Y, Swail VR (2014) Changes in global ocean wave heights as projected using multimodel CMIP5 simulations. Geophys Res Lett 41:1026–1034
81. Weisse R, von Storch H, Callies U, Chrastansky A, Feser F, Grabemann I, Günther H, Winterfeldt J, Woth K, Pluess A (2009) Regional meteorological-marine reanalyses and climate change projections: results for Northern Europe and potential for coastal and offshore applications. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:849–860
82. Weisse R, von Storch H, Niemeyer HD, Knaack H (2012) Changing North Sea storm surge climate: an increasing hazard? Ocean Coast Manag 68:58–68
83. Weisse R, Bellafiore D, Menéndez M, Méndez F, Nicholls RJ, Umgiesser G, Willems P (2014) Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts. Coastal Eng 87:4–14
84. WMO (2011) Guide to storm surge forecasting. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, p 120
85. Woodworth PL, Blackman DL (2002) Changes in extreme high waters at Liverpool since 1768. Int J Climatol 22:697–714
86. Woth K, Weisse R, Von Storch H (2006) Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models. Ocean Dyn 56:3–15
87. Yates ML, Guza RT, O’Reilly WC (2009) Equilibrium shoreline response: observations and modeling. J Geophys Res 114:C09014. doi:10.1029/2009JC005359
88. Zijl F, Verlaan M, Gerritsen H (2013) Improved water-level forecasting for the Northwest European Shelf and North Sea through direct modelling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction. Ocean Dyn 63:823–847