Environmental variation generates environmental opportunist pathogen outbreaks

PLoS ONE

Volumn 10, Issue 12, 2015, Pages

  Anttila, Jani ^a   Kaitala, Veijo ^a   Laakso, Jouni ^a   Ruokolainen, Lasse ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; EPIDEMIC; GROWTH RATE; HOST SUSCEPTIBILITY; INFECTION RESISTANCE; INTERMETHOD COMPARISON; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MICROBIAL GROWTH; OPPORTUNISTIC INFECTION; ENVIRONMENT; HOST PATHOGEN INTERACTION; MARKOV CHAIN; OPPORTUNISTIC INFECTIONS; STATISTICAL MODEL; TIME FACTOR;

DISEASE OUTBREAKS; ENVIRONMENT; HOST-PATHOGEN INTERACTIONS; MODELS, STATISTICAL; OPPORTUNISTIC INFECTIONS; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 84957599262     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0145511     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Kunttu HMT, Sundberg L-R, Pulkkinen K, Valtonen ET. Environment may be the source of Flavobacterium columnare outbreaks at fish farms. Environ Microbiol Reports. 2012; 4: 398-402.
2. Turner WC, Imologhome P, Havarua Z, Kaaya GP, Mpofu JKEM nad IDT, Getz WM. Soil ingestion, nutrition and the seasonality of anthrax in herbivores of Etosha National Park. Ecosphere. 2013; 4: 1-19.
3. Blehert DS, Hicks AC, Behr M, Meteyer CU, Berlowski-Zier BM, Buckles EL, et al. Bat white-nose syndrome: an emerging fungal pathogen? Science. 2008; 323: 227. doi: 10.1126/science.1163874 PMID: 18974316
4. Anderson RM, May RM. Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I. Nature. 1979; 280: 361-367. PMID: 460412
5. Day T. Virulence evolution via host exploitation and toxin production in spore-producing pathogens. Ecol Lett. 2002; 5: 471-476.
6. Boldin B, Kisdi E. On the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens with direct and environmental transmission. Evolution. 2012; 66: 2514-2527. doi: 10.1111/j.1558-5646.2012.01613.x PMID: 22834749
7. Joh RI, Wang H, Weiss H, Weitz JS. Dynamics of Indirectly Transmitted Infectious Diseases with Immunological Threshold. Bull Math Biol. 2009; 71: 845-862. doi: 10.1007/s11538-008-9384-4 PMID: 19096894
8. Anttila J, Ruokolainen L, Kaitala V, Laakso J. Loss of competition in the outside host environment generates outbreaks of environmental opportunist pathogens. PLoS ONE. 2013; 8: e71621. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071621 PMID: 24244752
9. Merikanto I, Laakso J, Kaitala V. Outside-host growth of pathogens attenuates epidemiological outbreaks. PLoS ONE. 2012; 7: e50158. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0050158 PMID: 23226245
10. Godfray H, Briggs C, Barlow N, O'Callaghan M, Glare T, Jackson T. A model of insect pathogen dynamics in which a pathogenic bacterium can also reproduce saprophytically. Proceeding R Soc B. 1999; 266: 233-241.
11. Codeco CT. Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir. BMC Infect Dis. 2001; 1:1. PMID: 11208258
12. Breban R, Drake JM, Stallknecht DE, Rohani P. The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics. PLoS Comput Biol. 2009; 5: e1000346. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000346 PMID: 19360126
13. Koelle K, Rodo X, Pascual M, Yunus M, Mostafa G. Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera outbreaks. Nature. 2005; 436: 696-700. PMID: 16079845
14. Ruiz-Moreno D, Pascual M, Bouma M, Dobson A, Cash B. Cholera seasonality in Madras (1091-1940): Dual role for rainfall in endemic and epidemic regions. EcoHealth. 2007; 4: 52-62.
15. Altizer S, Dobson A, Hosseini P, Hudson P, Pasqual M, Rohani P. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecol Lett. 2006; 9: 467-484. PMID: 16623732
16. Gomes MGM, White LJ, Medley GF. Infection, reinfection, and vaccination under suboptimal immune protection: epidemiological perspectives. J Theor Biol. 2004; 228: 539-549. PMID: 15178201
17. Boven M van, Melker HE de, Schellekens JFP, Kretzschmar M. Waning immunity and sub-clinical infection in an epidemic model: implications for pertussis in The Netherlands. Math Biosci. 2000; 164: 161-182. PMID: 10748285
18. Ruokolainen L, Linden A, Kaitala V, Fowler M. Ecological and evolutionary dynamics under coloured environmental variation. 2009; 24: 555-563. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2009.04.009 PMID: 19699550
19. Ruokolainen L, McCann K. Environmental weakening of trophic interactionc drives stability in stochastic food webs. J Theor Biol. 2013; 36-46.
20. Suomalainen LR, Kunttu H, Valtonen ET, Hirvelä-Koski V, Tiirola M. Molecular diversity and growth features of Flavobacterium columnare strains isolated in Finland. Dis Aquat Organ. 2006; 70: 55-61. PMID: 16875391
21. Pelosse P, Kribs-Zaleta CM, Ginoux M, Rabinovich JE, Gourbiere S, Menu F. Influence of vectors' riskspreading strategies and environmental stochasticity on the epidemiology and evolution of vectorborne Diseases: the example of chagas' disease. PLoS ONE. 2013; 8: e70830. doi: 10.1371/journal. pone.0070830 PMID: 23951018
22. Anttila J, Laakso J, Kaitala V, Ruokolainen L. Environmental variation enables invasions of environmental opportunist pathogens. Oikos. 2015; doi: 10.1111/oik.02913
23. Nisbet RM, Gurney WCS. Modelling Fluctuating Populations. The Blackburn Press; 1982.
24. Roughgarden J. A simple model for population dynamics in stochastic environments. Am Nat. 1975; 109: 713-736.
25. Vuong C, Kocianova S, Voyich JM, Yao Y, Fischer ER, DeLeo FR, et al. A crucial role for exopolysaccharide formation in bacterial biofilm formation, immune evasion and virulence. J Biol Chem. 2004; 279: 54881-54886. PMID: 15501828
26. Hall-Stoodley L, Stoodley P. Biofilm formation and dispersal and the transmission of human pathogens. Trends Microbiol. 2005; 13: 7-10. PMID: 15639625
27. Hammer BK, Bassler BL. Quorum sensing controls biofilm formation in Vibrio cholerae. Mol Microbiol. 2003; 50: 101-104. PMID: 14507367
28. Regoes RR, Ebert D, Bonhoeffer S. Dose-dependent infection rates of parasites produce the Allee effect in epidemiology. Proc R Soc B. 2002; 269: 271-279. PMID: 11839196
29. Cohen AE, Gonzalez A, Lawton JH, Petchey OL, Wildman D, Cohen JE. A novel experimental apparatus to study the impact of white noise and 1/f noise on animal populations. Proc R Soc B. 1998; 265: 11-15. PMID: 9470214
30. Halley JM. Ecology, evolution and 1/f-noise. Trends Ecol Evol. 1996; 11: 33-37. PMID: 21237757
31. Fowler MS, Ruokolainen L. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk. PLoS ONE. 2013; 8: e55855. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0055855 PMID: 23409065
32. Cohen JE, Newman CM, Cohen AE, Petchey OL, Gonzales A. Spectral mimicry: A method of synthesizing matching time series with different Fourier spectra. Circuits Syst Signal Process. 1999; 18: 431-442.
33. Ranta E, Lundberg P, Kaitala V. Ecology of populations. Cambridge University Press; 2006.
34. Kaitala V, Ylikarjula J, Ranta E, Lundberg P. Population dynamics and the colour of environmental noise. Proc R Soc B. 1997; 264: 943-948. PMID: 9304115
35. Greenman J, Kamo M, Boots M. External forcing of ecological and epidemiological systems: a resonance approach. Phys. 2004; 190: 136-151.
36. Rohani P, Keeling MJ, Grenfell BT. The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases. Am Nat. 2002; 159: 469-481. doi: 10.1086/339467 PMID: 18707430
37. Vasseur DA. Populations embedded in trophic communities respond differently to coloured environmental noise. Theor Popul Biol. 2007; 72: 186-196. PMID: 17658573
38. Vasseur DA, Yodzis P. The color of environmental noise. Ecology. 2004; 85: 1146-1152.
39. Wendelboe AM, Rie AV, Salmaso S, Englund JA. Duration of immunity against pertussis after natural infection of vaccination. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2005; 24: S58-S61. PMID: 15876927
40. Krugman S, Giles JP, Friedman H, Stone S. Studies on immunity to measles. J Pediatr. 1965; 66: 471-488. PMID: 14264306
41. Hall CB, Walsh EE, Long CE, Schnabel KC. Immunity to and frequency of reinfection with respiratory syncytial virus. J Infect Dis. 1991; 163: 693-698. PMID: 2010624
42. Greenhalgh D. Hopf bifurcation in epidemic models with a latent period and nonpermanent immunity. Math Comput Model. 1997; 25: 85-107.
43. Greenhalgh D, Khan QJA, Lewis FI. Hopf bifurcation in two SIRS density dependent epidemic models. Math Comput Model. 2004; 39: 1261.
44. Wearing HJ, Rohani P. Estimating the Duration of Pertussis Immunity Using Epidemiological Signatures. PLoS Pathog. 2009; 5: e1000647. doi: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1000647 PMID: 19876392
45. Suomalainen LR, Tiirola MA, Valtonen ET. Influence of rearing conditions on Flavobacterium columnare infection of rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum). J Fish Dis. 2005; 28: 271-277. PMID: 15892752
46. Snieszko SF. The effects of environmental stress on outbreaks of infectious diseases of fishes. J Fish Biol. 1974; 6: 197-208.
47. IPCC. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, et al., editors. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; 2013.