Effective case/infection ratio of poliomyelitis in vaccinated populations

Epidemiology and Infection

Volumn 144, Issue 9, 2016, Pages 1933-1942

  Bencsko G ^a,b   Ferenci, T ^c  

^a INSTITUTE OF EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE   (Hungary)

^b EÖTVÖS LORÁND UNIVERSITY   (Hungary)

^c ÓBUDA UNIVERSITY   (Hungary)

Author keywords

AFP surveillance; case infection ratio; IPV; OPV; poliomyelitis; reproduction rate

Indexed keywords

POLIOMYELITIS VACCINE;

ARTICLE; COMPARTMENT MODEL; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; DRUG EFFICACY; EFFECTIVE CASE INFECTION RATIO; EPIDEMIC; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; EUROPE; HUMAN; POLIOMYELITIS; THEORETICAL MODEL; EPIDEMIOLOGY; FEMALE; IMMUNOLOGY; MALE; STATISTICAL MODEL; TIME FACTOR; TRANSMISSION; UTILIZATION; VACCINATION;

EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS; EUROPE; FEMALE; HUMANS; MALE; MODELS, STATISTICAL; POLIOMYELITIS; POLIOVIRUS VACCINES; TIME FACTORS; VACCINATION;

EID: 84956877262     PISSN: 09502688     EISSN: 14694409     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268816000078     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Atkinson W, Wolfe S, Hamborsky J (eds). Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-preventable Diseases. Washington DC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2012.
2. Wilson W, Sande M (eds). Current Diagnosis and Treatment in Infectious Diseases. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2001.
3. Plotkin SA, Orenstein W, Offit PA. Vaccines. Philadelphia: Elsevier, 2012.
4. Tebbens RJD, et al. Expert review on poliovirus immunity and transmission. Risk Analysis 2013; 33: 544-605.
5. Aylward B, et al. When is a disease eradicable? 100 years of lessons learned. American Journal of Public Health 2000; 90: 1515-1520.
6. Hagan JE, et al. Progress toward polio eradication-worldwide, 2014-2015. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 2015; 64: 527-531.
7. Bahl S, et al. Polio-free certification and lessons learned-South-East Asia Region, March 2014. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 2014; 63: 941-946.
8. WHO. Polio eradication and endgame strategic plan 2013-2018. World Health Organization, 2013.
9. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Wild-Type poliovirus 1 transmission in Israel-what is the risk to the EU/EEA? (http://www.ecdc.europa. eu/en/publications/Publications/polio-risk-Assessmenttransmission-in-Israel.pdf). Accessed 30 January 2014).
10. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Outbreak of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1) in Ukraine (http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publi cations/Publications/Poliomyelitis-Ukraine-rapid-riskassessment-September-2015.pdf). Accessed 23 September 2015).
11. Eichner M, Brockmann SO. Polio emergence in Syria and Israel endangers Europe. Lancet 2013; 382: 1777.
12. Eichner M, Dietz K. Eradication of poliomyelitis: when can one be sure that polio virus transmission has been terminated? American Journal of Epidemiology 1996; 143: 816-822.
13. Orenstein WA, et al. Field evaluation of vaccine efficacy. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 1985; 63: 1055-1068.
14. Nathanson N, Kew OM. From emergence to eradication: The epidemiology of poliomyelitis deconstructed. American Journal of Epidemiology 2010; 172: 1213-1229.
15. Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). Poliomyelitis prevention in the United States: introduction of a sequential vaccination schedule of inactivated poliovirus vaccine followed by oral poliovirus vaccine. Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Recommendations and Reports 1997; 46: 1-25.
16. WHO CISID database. Polio 3. % of infants vaccinated against (http://data.euro.who.int/cisid/). Accessed 30 January 2014).
17. Burton A, et al. WHO and UNICEF estimates of national infant immunization coverage: methods and processes. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2009; 87: 535-541.
18. Eurostat database. Population on 1 January by age and sex. Demo-pjan (http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=demo-pjan&lang=en). Accessed 30 January 2014).
19. Hird TR, Grassly NC. Systematic review of mucosal immunity induced by oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines against virus shedding following oral poliovirus challenge. PLoS Pathogens 2012; 8: e1002599.
20. Okayasu H, et al. Mucosal immunity and poliovirus vaccines: impact on wild poliovirus infection and transmission. Vaccine 2011; 29: 8205-8214.
21. Saltelli A, et al. Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. Chichester: Wiley, 2008.
22. Silverman BW. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 1986.
23. Wolfram Research, Inc. Mathematica, version 9.0. Champaign, IL, 2012.
24. Gary HE, Sanders R, Pallansch MA. A theoretical framework for evaluating the sensitivity of surveillance for detecting wild poliovirus: II. Factors affecting detection sensitivity in a population with circulating wild poliovirus. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1997; 175: S141-145.
25. Watkins RE, et al. An evaluation of the sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis surveillance for poliovirus infection in Australia. BMC Infectious Diseases 2009; 9: 162.
26. Mode CJ, Candace K. Stochastic Processes in Epidemiology: HIV/AIDS, Other Infectious Diseases, and Computers. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing, 2010.