Oak acorn crop and Google search volume predict Lyme disease risk in temperate Europe

Basic and Applied Ecology

Volumn 17, Issue 4, 2016, Pages 300-307

  Bogdziewicz, Michał ^a   Szymkowiak, Jakub ^a  

^a ADAM MICKIEWICZ UNIVERSITY   (Poland)

Author keywords

Google Trends; Ixodes ricinus; Ixodes scapularis; Mast seeding; Rodent outbreak; Zoonotic disease

Indexed keywords

EID: 84956629322     PISSN: 14391791     EISSN: 16180089     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2016.01.002     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Barbour A.G., Fish D. The biological and social phenomenon of Lyme disease. Science 1993, 260:1610-1616.
2. Beytout J., George J., Malaval J., Garnier M., Beytout M., Baranton G., et al. Lyme borreliosis incidence in two French departments: Correlation with infection of Ixodes ricinus ticks by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases 2007, 7:507-518.
3. Bogdziewicz M., Zwolak R., Crone E.E. How do vertebrates respond to mast seeding?. Oikos 2016, 10.1111/oik.03012.
4. Box G.E., Jenkins G.M., Reinsel G.C. Time series analysis: Forecasting and control 2013, John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey.
5. Brunner J.L., Ostfeld R.S. Multiple causes of variable tick burdens on small-mammal hosts. Ecology 2008, 89:2259-2272.
6. Clement J., Vercauteren J., Verstraeten W.W., Ducoffre G., Barrios J.M., Vandamme A.-M., et al. Relating increasing hantavirus incidences to the changing climate: The mast connection. International Journal of Health Geographics 2009, 8:1.
7. Cowpertwait P.S., Metcalfe A.V. Introductory time series with R 2009, Springer, New York.
8. Crone E.E., Rapp J.M. Resource depletion, pollen coupling, and the ecology of mast seeding. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 2014, 1322:21-34.
9. Do Y., Kim J.Y., Lineman M., Kim D.K., Joo G.J. Using internet search behavior to assess public awareness of protected wetlands. Conservation Biology 2015, 29:271-279.
10. Estrada-Pena A. Tick-borne pathogens, transmission rates and climate change. Frontiers in Bioscience 2009, 14:2674-2687.
11. Franke J., Hildebrandt A., Dorn W. Exploring gaps in our knowledge on Lyme borreliosis spirochaetes-updates on complex heterogeneity, ecology, and pathogenicity. Ticks and Tick-Borne Diseases 2013, 4:11-25.
12. Generous N., Fairchild G., Deshpande A., Del Valle S.Y., Priedhorsky R. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with wikipedia. PLoS Computational Biology 2014, 10:e1003892.
13. Gern L. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, the agent of lyme borreliosis: Life in the wilds. Parasite 2008, 15:244-247.
14. Gern L., Estrada-Pena A., Frandsen F., Gray J., Jaenson T., Jongejan F., et al. European Reservoir Hosts of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. Zentralblatt für Bakteriologie 1998, 287:196-204.
15. Ginsberg J., Mohebbi M.H., Patel R.S., Brammer L., Smolinski M.S., Brilliant L. Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Nature 2008, 457:1012-1014.
16. Hanincova K., Schäfer S., Etti S., Sewell H.-S., Taragelova V., Ziak D., et al. Association of Borrelia afzelii with rodents in Europe. Parasitology 2003, 126:11-20.
17. Harrison A., Scantlebury M., Montgomery W. Body mass and sex-biased parasitism in wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus. Oikos 2010, 119:1099-1104.
18. Hubálek Z., Halouzka J., Juřicová Z. Longitudinal surveillance of the tick Ixodes ricinusfor borreliae. Medical and Veterinary Entomology 2003, 17:46-51.
19. Jaenson T.G., Eisen L., Comstedt P., Mejlon H., Lindgren E., Bergström S., et al. Risk indicators for the tick Ixodes ricinus and Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in Sweden. Medical and Veterinary Entomology 2009, 23:226-237.
20. Jedrzejewska B., Jedrzejewski W. Predation in vertebrate communities: The Bialowieza Primeval Forest as a case study 1998, Springer, Berlin.
21. Jensen T.S. Seed production and outbreaks of non-cyclic rodent populations in deciduous forests. Oecologia 1982, 54:184-192.
22. Jones C.G., Ostfeld R.S., Richard M.P., Schauber E.M., Wolff J.O. Chain reactions linking acorns to gypsy moth outbreaks and Lyme disease risk. Science 1998, 279:1023-1026.
23. Jones C.G., Ostfeld R.S., Richard M.P., Schauber E.M., Wolff J.O. Mast seeding and Lyme disease. Trends in Ecoogy & Evoution 1998, 13:506.
24. Kantorowicz W. Half a century of seed years in major tree species of Poland. Silvae Genetica 2000, 49:245-248.
25. Keesing F., Brunner J., Duerr S., Killilea M., LoGiudice K., Schmidt K., et al. Hosts as ecological traps for the vector of Lyme disease. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2009, 276:3911-3919.
26. Kelly D. The evolutionary ecology of mast seeding. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 1994, 9:465-470.
27. Kiffner C., Vor T., Hagedorn P., Niedrig M., Rühe F. Factors affecting patterns of tick parasitism on forest rodents in tick-borne encephalitis risk areas, Germany. Parasitology Research 2011, 108:323-335.
28. Korenberg E.I., Kovalevskii Y.V., Gorelova N.B. Tick-host-Borrelia population interactions: Long-term records in Eastern Europe. Experimental & Applied Acarology 2002, 28:225-229.
29. Mather T.N., Wilson M.L., Moore S.I., Ribeiro J.M., Spielman A. Comparing the relative potential of rodents as reservoirs of the Lyme disease spirochete (Borreliaburgdorferi). American Journal of Epidemiology 1989, 130:143-150.
30. McIver D.J., Brownstein J.S. Wikipedia usage estimates prevalence of influenza-like illness in the United States in near real-time. PLoS Computational Biology 2014, 10:e1003581.
31. McShea W.J. The influence of acorn crops on annual variation in rodent and bird populations. Ecology 2000, 81:228-238.
32. Michalik J., Hofman T., Buczek A., Skoracki M., Sikora B. Borrelia burgdorferi sl in Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) ticks collected from vegetation and small rodents in recreational areas of the city of Poznań. Journal of Medical Entomology 2003, 40:690-697.
33. Olea P.P., Mateo-Tomás P. Assessing species habitat using google street view: A case study of cliff-nesting vultures. PLoS ONE 2013, 8:e54582.
34. Ostfeld R. Lyme disease: The ecology of a complex system 2010, Oxford University Press, New York.
35. Ostfeld R.S., Canham C.D., Oggenfuss K., Winchcombe R.J., Keesing F. Climate, deer, rodents, and acorns as determinants of variation in Lyme-disease risk. PLoS Biology 2006, 4:e145.
36. Ostfeld R.S., Jones C.G., Wolff J.O. Of mice and mast. BioScience 1996, 46:323-330.
37. Ostfeld R.S., Schauber E.M., Canham C.D., Keesing F., Jones C.G., Wolff J.O. Effects of acorn production and mouse abundance on abundance and Borrelia burgdorferi infection prevalence of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks. Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases 2001, 1:55-63.
38. Paziewska A., Zwolińska L., Harris P.D., Bajer A., Siński E. Utilisation of rodent species by larvae and nymphs of hard ticks (Ixodidae) in two habitats in NE Poland. Experimental and Applied Acarology 2010, 50:79-91.
39. Perkins S.E., Cattadori I.M., Tagliapietra V., Rizzoli A.P., Hudson P.J. Empirical evidence for key hosts in persistence of a tick-borne disease. International Journal for Parasitology 2003, 33:909-917.
40. Pfäffle M., Littwin N., Muders S.V., Petney T.N. The ecology of tick-borne diseases. International Journal for Parasitology 2013, 43:1059-1077.
41. Pucek Z., Jedrzejewski W., Jedrzejewska B., Pucek M. Rodent population dynamics in a primeval deciduous forest (Bialowiez˙a National Park) in relation to weather, seed crop, and predation. Acta Theriologica 1993, 38:199.
42. Randolph S.E. Population regulation in ticks: The role of acquired resistance in natural and unnatural hosts. Parasitology 1979, 79:141-156.
43. Randolph S.E. Mighty theories from little acorns grow: Is Lyme disease risk predictable from mast-seeding by oak trees?. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 1998, 13:301-303.
44. Randolph S.E. The shifting landscape of tick-borne zoonoses: Tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis in Europe. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2001, 356:1045-1056.
45. R Development Core Team R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna (Austria): R Foundation for Statistical Computing 2013, Available from: http://www.R-project.org.
46. Schauber E.M., Ostfeld R.S., Evans A.S. What is the best predictor of annual Lyme disease incidence: Weather, mice, or acorns?. Ecological Applications 2005, 15:575-586.
47. Siński E., Pawelczyk A., Bajer A., Behnke J.M. Abundance of wild rodents, ticks and environmental risk of Lyme borreliosis: A longitudinal study in an area of Mazury Lakes district of Poland. Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine 2006, 13:295-300.
48. Stafford K.C., Cartter M.L., Magnarelli L.A., Ertel S.-H., Mshar P.A. Temporal correlations between tick abundance and prevalence of ticks infected with Borrelia burgdorferi and increasing incidence of Lyme disease. Journal of Clinical Microbiology 1998, 36:1240-1244.
49. Szymkowiak J., Kuczyński L. Avoiding predators in a fluctuating environment: Responses of the wood warbler to pulsed resources. Behavioral Ecology 2015, 26:601-608.
50. Tersago K., Verhagen R., Servais A., Heyman P., Ducoffre G., Leirs H. Hantavirus disease (nephropathia epidemica) in Belgium: Effects of tree seed production and climate. Epidemiology and Infection 2009, 137:250-256.
51. Wolff J.O. Population fluctuations of mast-eating rodents are correlated with production of acorns. Journal of Mammalogy 1996, 77:850-856.
52. Zwolak R., Bogdziewicz M., Rychlik L. Beech masting modifies the response of rodents to forest management. Forest Ecology and Management 2016, 359:268-276.
53. Zmihorski M., Dziarska-Pałac J., Sparks T.H., Tryjanowski P. Ecological correlates of the popularity of birds and butterflies in Internet information resources. Oikos 2013, 122:183-190.