Extreme rainfall in early July 2014 in northland, New Zealand-was there an anthropogenic influence?

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Volumn 96, Issue 12, 2015, Pages S136-S140

  Rosier, Suzanne ^a   Dean, Sam ^a   Stuart, Stephen ^a   Carey Smith, Trevor ^a   Black, Mitchell T ^b   Massey, Neil ^c  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF WATER AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (New Zealand)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTH ATMOSPHERE; METEOROLOGY;

ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE; EXTREME RAINFALL; NEW ZEALAND; RAINFALL EVENT;

RAIN;

EID: 84955483423     PISSN: 00030007     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00105.1     Document Type: Review

References (23)

1. Ackerley, D., S. Dean, A. Sood, and A. B. Mullan, 2012: Regional climate modelling in New Zealand: Comparison to gridded and satellite observations. Wea. Climate, 32 (1), 3-22.
2. Ailliot, P., C. Tompson, and P. Tomson, 2011: Mixed methods for ftting the GEV distribution. Water Resour. Res., 47, W05551, doi:10.1029/2010WR009417.
3. Alexander, L. V., and Coauthors, 2006: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
4. Allen, M. R., 1999: Do-it-yourself climate prediction. Nature, 401, 642.
5. -, 2003: Liability for climate change. Nature, 421, 891-892.
6. Black, M. T., D. J. Karoly, and A. D. King, 2015: The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, heatwaves of January 2014 [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 From a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S145-S148, doi:10.1011/BAMS-D-15.00098.1.
7. Carey-Smith, T., S. Dean, J. Vial, and C. Tompson, 2010: Changes in precipitation extremes for New Zealand: Climate model predictions. Wea. Climate, 30, 23-48.
8. Dean, S. M., S.M. Rosier, T. Carey-Smith, and P. A. Stott, 2013: The role of climate change in the two-day extreme rainfall in Golden Bay, New Zealand, December 2011 [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S61-S63.
9. Hartmann, D. L., and Coauthors, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and surface, Supplementary material. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 30 pp. [Available online at www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5-Ch02SM-FINAL.pd f.]
10. ICNZ, 2015: Cost of disaster events in New Zealand. In-surance Council of New Zealand. [Available online at www.icnz.org.nz/statistics-data/cost-of-disaster-events-in-new-zealand/.]
11. Jones, R. G., M. Noguer, D. C. Hassell, D. Hudson, S. Wilson, G. J. Jenkins, and J. F. B. Mitchell, 2004: Generating high resolution climate change sce-narios using PRECIS. Met Office Hadley Centre, 40 pp. [Available online at http://precis.metofce.com/docs/PRECIS-Handbook.pdf.]
12. Massey, N., and Coauthors, 2015: weather@home-de-velopment and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1528-1545, doi:10.1002/q j.2455.
13. Met Service NZ, 2015: The Northland foods of July 2014. Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd. [Available online at http://blog.metservice.com/2014/07/the-northland-foods-of-july-2014/].
14. NIWA, 2014: Monthly climate summary: July 2014. NIWA National Climate Centre. [Available online at www.niwa.co.nz/climate-summary-for-july-2014].
15. Otto, F. E. L., S. M. Rosier, M. R. Allen, N. R. Massey, C. J. Rye, and J. Imbers Quintana, 2014: Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2, Open access.
16. Pope, V., M. Gallani, P. Rowntree, and R. Stratton, 2000: The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dyn., 16, 123-146.
17. Schaller, N., F. E. L. Otto, G. J. van Oldenborgh, N. R. Massey, S. Sparrow, and M. R. Allen, 2014: The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the Upper Danube and Elbe basins [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S 69-S72.
18. Sillman, J., V. V. Kharin, F. W. Zwiers, X. Zhang, and D. Bronaugh, 2013: Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 2473-2493, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50188.
19. Sparrow, S., C. Huntingford, N. Massey, and M. R. Allen, 2013: The use of a very large atmospheric model ensemble to assess potential anthropogenic infu-ence on the U.K. summer 2012 high rainfall totals [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S36-S38.
20. Sturman, A., and N. J. Tapper, 2006: The Weather and Climate of Australia and New Zealand. Oxford University Press, 541 pp.
21. Tait, A., R. Henderson, R. Turner, and X. G. Zheng, 2006: Tin plate smoothing spline interpolation of daily rainfall for New Zealand using a climatologi-cal rainfall scheme. Int. J. Climatol., 26, 2097-2115, doi:10.1002/joc.1350.
22. Zhang, X., H. Wan, F. W. Zwiers, G. C. Hegerl, and S.-K. Min, 2013: Attributing intensifcation of precipitation extremes to human influence. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5252-5257, doi:10.1002/grl.51010.
23. Zhu, Y., and R. E. Newell, 1998: A proposed algorithm for moisture fuxes from atmospheric rivers. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 725-735, doi:10.1175/1520-0493.