Food-web stability signals critical transitions in temperate shallow lakes

Nature Communications

Volumn 6, Issue , 2015, Pages

  Kuiper, Jan J ^a,b   Van Altena, Cassandra ^b   De Ruiter, Peter C ^b,c   Van Gerven, Luuk P A ^a,b   Janse, Jan H ^a,d   Mooij, Wolf M ^a,b  

^a NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY NIOO KNAW   (Netherlands)

^b WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^c UNIVERSITY OF AMSTERDAM   (Netherlands)

^d PBL NETHERLANDS ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AGENCY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DETRITUS; DIATOM; ECOLOGICAL STABILITY; ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; ECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; FOOD WEB; LAKE ECOSYSTEM; SHALLOW WATER; TEMPERATE ENVIRONMENT; TROPHIC INTERACTION; ZOOPLANKTON;

AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT; ARTICLE; BIOMASS; DETRITUS; DIATOM; ECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; EUTROPHICATION; FOOD WEB; LAKE; NONHUMAN; NUTRIENT LOADING; PHYTOPLANKTON; ZOOPLANKTON; ANIMAL; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; BIOLOGY; ECOSYSTEM; FOOD CHAIN; POPULATION DYNAMICS;

BACILLARIOPHYTA;

ANIMALS; DIATOMS; ECOSYSTEM; FOOD CHAIN; HYDROBIOLOGY; LAKES; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; ZOOPLANKTON;

EID: 84955099068     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms8727     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Vitousek, P. M., Mooney, H. A., Lubchenco, J. & Melillo, J. M. Human domination of Earth's ecosystems. Science 277, 494-499 (1997).
2. Crutzen, P. J. Geology of mankind. Nature 415, 23 (2002).
3. Rockström, J. et al. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472-475 (2009).
4. Elton, C. S. Periodic fluctuations in the numbers of animals: their causes and effects. Br. J. Exp. Biol. 2, 119-163 (1924).
5. MacArthur, R. Fluctuations of animal populations and a measure of community stability. Ecology 36, 533-536 (1955).
6. Scheffer, M., Hosper, S. H., Meijer, M. L., Moss, B. & Jeppesen, E. Alternative equilibria in shallow lakes. Trends Ecol. Evol. 8, 275-279 (1993).
7. Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C. & Walker, B. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413, 591-596 (2001).
8. May, R. M. Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states. Nature 269, 471-477 (1977).
9. Scheffer, M. et al. Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461, 53-59 (2009).
10. May, R. M. Will a large complex system be stable? Nature 238, 413-414 (1972).
11. De Ruiter, P. C., Neutel, A. M. & Moore, J. C. Energetics, patterns of interaction strengths, and stability in real ecosystems. Science 269, 1257-1260 (1995).
12. McCann, K., Hastings, A. & Huxel, G. R. Weak trophic interactions and the balance of nature. Nature 395, 794-798 (1998).
13. Neutel, A.-M. et al. Reconciling complexity with stability in naturally assembling food webs. Nature 449, 599-602 (2007).
14. Rooney, N., McCann, K., Gellner, G. & Moore, J. C. Structural asymmetry and the stability of diverse food webs. Nature 442, 265-269 (2006).
15. De Vries, F. T. et al. Soil food web properties explain ecosystem services across European land use systems. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 14296-14301 (2013).
16. Berlow, E. L. et al. Interaction strengths in food webs: issues and opportunities. J. Anim. Ecol. 73, 585-598 (2004).
17. Ings, T. C. et al. Review: ecological networks beyond food webs. J. Anim. Ecol. 78, 253-269 (2008).
18. Ibelings, B. W. et al. Resilience of alternative stable states during the recovery of shallow lakes from eutrophication: Lake Veluwe as a case study. Ecosystems 10, 4-16 (2007).
19. Blindow, I., Andersson, G., Hargeby, A. & Johansson, S. Long-term pattern of alternative stable states in two shallow eutrophic lakes. Freshw. Biol. 30, 159-167 (1993).
20. Van Liere, L. & Janse, J. H. Restoration and resilience to recovery of the Lake Loosdrecht ecosystem in relation to its phosphorus flow. Hydrobiologia 233, 95-104 (1992).
21. Janse, J. H., Aldenberg, T. & Kramer, P. R. G. A mathematical model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Loosdrecht and simulation of additional measures. Hydrobiologia 233, 119-136 (1992).
22. Janse, J. H. et al. Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty. Ecol. Modell. 221, 654-665 (2010).
23. Van Gerven, L. P. A. et al. Advantages of concurrent use of multiple software frameworks in water quality modelling using a database approach. Fundam. Appl. Limnol. 186, 5-20 (2015).
24. Gulati, R. D. & van Donk, E. Lakes in the Netherlands, their origin, eutrophication and restoration: state-of-the-art review. Hydrobiologia 478, 73-106 (2002).
25. De Ruiter, P. C., Veen, J. A., Moore, J. C., Brussaard, L. & Hunt, H. W. Calculation of nitrogen mineralization in soil food webs. Plant Soil 157, 263-273 (1993).
26. Moore, J. C. & de Ruiter, P. C. Energetic Food Webs: an Analysis of Real and Model Ecosystems (Oxford Univ. Press, 2012).
27. Neutel, A.-M., Heesterbeek, J. A. P. & de Ruiter, P. C. Stability in real food webs: weak links in long loops. Science 296, 1120-1123 (2002).
28. Van Altena, C., Hemerik, L., Heesterbeek, J. A. P. & de Ruiter, P. C. Patterns in intraspecific interaction strengths and the stability of food webs. Theor. Ecol. 296, 1120-1123 (2014).
29. Scheffer, M. & Carpenter, S. R. Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends Ecol. Evol. 18, 648-656 (2003).
30. O'Gorman, E. J. & Emmerson, M. C. Perturbations to trophic interactions and the stability of complex food webs. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 13393-13398 (2009).
31. Wootton, J. T. & Emmerson, M. C. Measurement of interaction strength in nature. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 36, 419-444 (2005).
32. Holling, C. S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 4, 1-23 (1973).
33. Emmerson, M. C. & Raffaelli, D. Predator-prey body size, interaction strength and the stability of a real food web. J. Anim. Ecol. 73, 399-409 (2004).
34. Rip, J. M. K., McCann, K. S., Lynn, D. H. & Fawcett, S. An experimental test of a fundamental food web motif. Proc. Biol. Sci. 277, 1743-1749 (2010).
35. Scheffer, M. Ecology of Shallow Lakes (Springer, 1998).
36. Oksanen, L., Fretwell, S. D., Arruda, J. & Niemela, P. Exploitation ecosystems in gradients of primary productivity. Am. Nat. 188, 240-261 (1981).
37. Carpenter, S. R. & Kitchell, J. F. The Trophic Cascade in Lakes (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1996).
38. Jeppesen, E. et al. Lake responses to reduced nutrient loading - an analysis of contemporary long-term data from 35 case studies. Freshw. Biol. 50, 1747-1771 (2005).
39. Downing, A. S. et al. Collapse and reorganization of a food web of Mwanza Gulf, Lake Victoria. Ecol. Appl. 22, 229-239 (2012).
40. Lade, S. J. & Gross, T. Early warning signals for critical transitions: a generalized modeling approach. PLoS Comput. Biol. 8, e1002360 (2012).
41. Dakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., van Nes, E. H. & Scheffer, M. Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 370 (2015).
42. Kéfi, S., Dakos, V., Scheffer, M., Van Nes, E. H. & Rietkerk, M. Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions. Oikos 122, 641-648 (2012).
43. Rawcliffe, R. et al. Back to the future: using palaeolimnology to infer long-term changes in shallow lake food webs. Freshw. Biol. 55, 600-613 (2010).
44. Hulot, F. D., Lacroix, G., Lescher-Moutoue, F. & Loreau, M. Functional diversity governs ecosystem response to nutrient enrichment. Nature 405, 340-344 (2000).
45. Purves, D. et al. Time to model all life on Earth. Nature 493, 7-9 (2013).