Underestimated effects of climate on plant species turnover in the Southwest Australian Floristic Region

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 43, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 289-300

  Jones, Mirkka M ^a,b,c   Gibson, Neil ^d   Yates, Colin ^d   Ferrier, Simon ^c   Mokany, Karel ^c   Williams, Kristen J ^c   Manion, Glenn ^e   Svenning, Jens Christian ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TURKU   (Finland)

^b AARHUS UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

^c CSIRO   (Australia)

^d Crop Variety Testing Group   (Australia)

^e OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENT AND HERITAGE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Beta diversity; Environmental history; Mediterranean climate; Model error; Residual ordination; Species range dynamics; Unexplained variation; Variation partitioning

Indexed keywords

ENVIRONMENTAL HISTORY; ERROR ANALYSIS; EXTINCTION; FLORISTICS; HISTORICAL RECORD; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; MEDITERRANEAN ENVIRONMENT; NICHE PARTITIONING; RANGE EXPANSION; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; SPECIES DIVERSITY;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 84954388051     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: 13652699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/jbi.12628     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Abbott, I. (1984) Ecological features of an outlying stand of jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) at Jilakin Rock, Western Australia. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia, 66, 107-110.
2. Bates, B.C., Hope, P., Ryan, B., Smith, I. & Charles, S. (2008) Key findings from the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative and their impact on policy development in Australia. Climatic Change, 89, 339-354.
3. Blois, J.L., Williams, J.W., Fitzpatrick, M.C., Jackson, S.T. & Ferrier, S. (2013) Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 110, 9374-9379.
4. Borcard, D., Legendre, P. & Drapeau, P. (1992) Partialling out the spatial component of ecological variation. Ecology, 73, 1045-1055.
5. Bussell, J.D. (1999) The distribution of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) diversity amongst populations of Isotoma petraea (Lobeliaceae). Molecular Ecology, 8, 775-789.
6. Byrne, M. (2007) Phylogeography provides an evolutionary context for the conservation of a diverse and ancient flora. Australian Journal of Botany, 55, 316-325.
7. Byrne, M. (2008) Evidence for multiple refugia at different time scales during Pleistocene climatic oscillations in southern Australia inferred from phylogeography. Quaternary Science Reviews, 27, 2576-2585.
8. Byrne, M. & Hopper, S.D. (2008) Granite outcrops as ancient islands in old landscapes: evidence from the phylogeography and population genetics of Eucalyptus caesia (Myrtaceae) in Western Australia. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 93, 177-188.
9. Byrne, M., Tischler, G., Macdonald, B., Coates, D.J. & McComb, J. (2001) Phylogenetic relationships between two rare acacias and their common, widespread relatives in south-western Australia. Conservation Genetics, 2, 157-166.
10. Coates, D.J. & Atkins, K.A. (2001) Priority setting and the conservation of Western Australia's diverse and highly endemic flora. Biological Conservation, 97, 251-263.
11. Collins, W.D., Bitz, C.M., Blackmon, M.L., Bonan, G.B., Bretherton, C.S., Carton, J.A., Chang, P., Doney, S.C., Hack, J.J., Henderson, T.B., Kiehl, J.T., Large, W.G., McKenna, D.S., Santer, B.D. & Smith, R.D. (2006) The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). Journal of Climate, 19, 2122-2143.
12. Cowling, R.M., Potts, A.J., Bradshaw, P.L., Colville, J., Arianoutsou, M., Ferrier, S., Forest, F., Fyllas, N.M., Hopper, S.D., Ojeda, F., Procheş, Ş., Smith, R.J., Rundel, P.W., Vassilakis, E. & Zutta, B.R. (2014) Variation in plant diversity in mediterranean-climate ecosystems: the role of climatic and topographical stability. Journal of Biogeography, 42, 552-564.
13. Dalmaris, E. (2012) Eucalyptus wandoo: tolerance to drought and salinity in relation to provenance and evolutionary history in southwestern Australia. PhD Thesis, The University of Western Australia, Perth.
14. Dirnböck, T., Hobbs, R.J., Lambeck, R.J. & Caccetta, P.A. (2002) Vegetation distribution in relation to topographically driven processes in southwestern Australia. Applied Vegetation Science, 5, 147-158.
15. Ferrier, S., Manion, G., Elith, J. & Richardson, K. (2007) Using generalized dissimilarity modelling to analyse and predict patterns of beta diversity in regional biodiversity assessment. Diversity and Distributions, 13, 252-264.
16. Fitzpatrick, M., Sanders, N.J., Normand, S., Svenning, J.-C., Ferrier, S., Gove, A.D. & Dunn, R.R. (2013) Environmental and historical imprints on beta diversity: insights from variation in rates of species turnover along gradients. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 280, 20131201.
17. Freckleton, R. (2002) On the misuse of residuals in ecology: regression of residuals vs. multiple regression. Journal of Animal Ecology, 71, 542-545.
18. Gallant, J.C. & Wilson, J.P. (2000) Primary topographic attributes. Terrain analysis: principles and applications (ed. by J.P. Wilson and J.C. Gallant ), pp. 51-85. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
19. Gibson, N., Keighery, G.J., Lyons, M.N. & Webb, A. (2004) Terrestrial flora and vegetation of the Western Australian wheatbelt. Records of the Western Australian Museum, Supplement 67, 139-189.
20. Gioia, P. & Piggott, J.P. (2000) Biodiversity assessment: a case study in predicting richness from the potential distributions of plant species in the forests of south-western Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 27, 1065-1078.
21. Gosper, C.R., Yates, C.J. & Prober, S.M. (2012) Changes in plant species and functional composition with time since fire in two mediterranean climate plant communities. Journal of Vegetation Science, 23, 1071-1081.
22. Guerin, G.R., Biffin, E. & Lowe, A.J. (2013) Spatial modelling of species turnover identifies climate ecotones, climate change tipping points and vulnerable taxonomic groups. Ecography, 36, 1086-1096.
23. Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
24. Hopper, S.D. (2009) OCBIL theory: towards an integrated understanding of the evolution, ecology and conservation of biodiversity on old, climatically buffered, infertile landscapes. Plant and Soil, 322, 49-86.
25. Hopper, S.D. & Gioia, P. (2004) The Southwest Australian Floristic Region: Evolution and conservation of a global hot spot of biodiversity. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 35, 623-650.
26. Hopper, S.D., Brown, A.P. & Marchant, N.G. (1997) Plants of Western Australian granite outcrops. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia, 80, 141-158.
27. Hubbell, S.P. (2001) The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
28. Jones, M.M., Ferrier, S., Condit, R., Manion, G., Aguilar, S. & Pérez, R. (2013) Strong congruence in tree and fern community turnover in response to soils and climate in central Panama. Journal of Ecology, 101, 506-516.
29. Laing, I.A.F. & Hauck, E.J. (1997) Water harvesting from granite outcrops in Western Australia. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia, 80, 181-184.
30. Laliberté, E., Turner, B.L., Costes, T., Pearse, S.J., Wyrwoll, K.-H., Zemunik, G. & Lambers, H. (2012) Experimental assessment of nutrient limitation along a 2-million-year dune chronosequence in the south-western Australia biodiversity hotspot. Journal of Ecology, 100, 631-642.
31. Laliberté, E., Zemunik, G. & Turner, B.L. (2014) Environmental filtering explains variation in plant diversity along resource gradients. Science, 345, 1602-1605.
32. Laliberté, E., Lambers, H., Burgess, T.I. & Wright, S.J. (2015) Phosphorus limitation, soil-borne pathogens and the coexistence of plant species in hyperdiverse forests and shrublands. New Phytologist, 206, 507-521.
33. Lambers, H., Shane, M.W., Cramer, M.D., Pearse, S.J. & Veneklaas, E.J. (2006) Root structure and functioning for efficient acquisition of phosphorous: matching morphological and physiological traits. Annals of Botany, 98, 693-713.
34. Lambers, H., Brundrett, M.C., Raven, J.A. & Hopper, S.D. (2011) Plant mineral nutrition in ancient landscapes: high plant species diversity on infertile soils is linked to functional diversity for nutritional strategies. Plant and Soil, 348, 7-27.
35. Laurance, W.F., Dell, B., Turton, S.M. et al. (2011) The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points. Biological Conservation, 144, 1472-1480.
36. Legendre, P. & Legendre, L. (2012) Numerical ecology, 3rd edn. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
37. Manion, G., Lisk, M., Ferrier, S., Nieto-Lugilde, D. & Fitzpatrick, M.C. (2015) gdm: functions for generalized dissimilarity modeling. R package version 1.0.
38. McArthur, W.M. (1991) Reference soils of south-western Australia. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia, Perth.
39. Micallef, L. & Rodgers, P. (2014) EulerAPE: drawing area-proportional 3-Venn diagrams using ellipses. PLoS ONE, 9, e101717.
40. Mulcahy, M.J. & Hingston, F.J. (1961) The development and distribution of soils of the York-Quairading area, Western Australia, in relation to landscape evolution. CSIRO Soil Publication 17, CSIRO, Canberra, Australia.
41. Nistelberger, H., Gibson, N., Macdonald, B.M., Tapper, S.-L. & Byrne, M. (2014) Phylogeographic evidence for two mesic refugia in a biodiversity hotspot. Heredity, 113, 454-463.
42. Normand, S., Ricklefs, R.E., Skov, F., Bladt, J., Tackenberg, O. & Svenning, J.-C. (2011) Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 278, 3644-3653.
43. Petherick, L., Bostock, H., Cohen, T.J., Fitzsimmons, K. & Tibby, J. (2013) Climatic records over the past 30 ka from temperate Australia - a synthesis from the Oz-INTIMATE workgroup. Quaternary Science Reviews, 74, 58-77.
44. Prober, S.M. & Wiehl, G. (2012) Relationships among soil fertility, native plant diversity and exotic plant abundance inform restoration of forb-rich eucalypt woodlands. Diversity and Distributions, 18, 795-807.
45. R Core Team (2013) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
46. Reeves, J.M., Barrows, T.T., Cohen, T.J., Kiem, A.S., Bostock, H.C., Fitzsimmons, K.E., Jansen, J.D., Kemp, J., Krause, C., Petherick, L., Phipps, S.J. & O.Z.-I.N.T.I.M.A.T.E. Members (2013) Climate variability over the last 35, 000 years recorded in marine and terrestrial archives in the Australian region: an OZ-INTIMATE compilation. Quaternary Science Reviews, 74, 21-34.
47. Réjou-Méchain, M. & Hardy, O.J. (2011) Properties of similarity indices under niche-based and dispersal-based processes in communities. The American Naturalist, 177, 589-604.
48. Sampson, J.F., Hopper, S.D. & James, S.H. (1988) Genetic diversity and the conservation of Eucalyptus crucis Maiden. Australian Journal of Botany, 36, 447-460.
49. Schut, A.G.T., Wardell-Johnson, G.W., Yates, C.J., Keppel, G., Baran, I., Franklin, S.E., Hopper, S.D., Van Niel, K., Mucina, L. & Byrne, M. (2014) Rapid characterization of vegetation structure to predict refugia and climate change impacts across a biodiversity hotspot. PLoS ONE, 9, e82778.
50. Tapper, S.-L., Byrne, M., Yates, C.J., Keppel, G., Hopper, S.D., Van Niel, K., Schut, A.G.T., Mucina, L. & Wardell-Johnson, G.W. (2014a) Isolated with persistence or dynamically connected? Genetic patterns in a common granite outcrop endemic. Diversity and Distributions, 20, 987-1001.
51. Tapper, S.-L., Byrne, M., Yates, C.J., Keppel, G., Hopper, S.D., Van Niel, K., Schut, A.G.T., Mucina, L. & Wardell-Johnson, G.W. (2014b) Prolonged isolation and persistence of a common endemic on granite outcrops in both mesic and semi-arid environments in south-western Australia. Journal of Biogeography, 41, 2032-2044.
52. Wilford, J. (2012) A weathering intensity index for the Australian continent using airborne gamma-ray spectrometry and digital terrain analysis. Geoderma, 183-184, 124-142.
53. Xu, T. & Hutchinson, M. (2011) ANUCLIM version 6.1 user guide. The Australian National University Fenner School of Environment and Society, Canberra.
54. Yates, C.J., Ladd, P.G., Coates, D.J. & McArthur, S. (2007) Hierarchies of cause: understanding rarity in an endemic shrub Verticordia staminosa (Myrtaceae) with a highly restricted distribution. Australian Journal of Botany, 55, 194-205.