Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Global Change Biology

Volumn 22, Issue 1, 2016, Pages 1-11

  Osland, Michael J ^a   Enwright, Nicholas M ^a   Day, Richard H ^a   Gabler, Christopher A ^b   Stagg, Camille L ^a   Grace, James B ^a  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^b University of Houston   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate gradient; Coastal wetlands; Ecological threshold; Ecological transition; Foundation species; Mangrove; Salt flat; Salt marsh; Vulnerability assessment

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; TEMPERATURE; WETLAND;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; RAIN; TEMPERATURE; WETLANDS;

EID: 84954364945     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13084     Document Type: Note

References (88)

1. Adam P (1990) Saltmarsh Ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
2. Alongi DM (2009) The Energetics of Mangrove Forests. Springer, New York.
3. Alongi DM (2015) The impact of climate change on mangrove forests. Current Climate Change Reports, 1, 30-39.
4. Angelini C, Altieri AH, Silliman BR, Bertness MD (2011) Interactions among foundation species and their consequences for community organization, biodiversity, and conservation. BioScience, 61, 782-789.
5. Armitage AR, Highfield WE, Brody SE, Louchouarn P (2015) The contribution of mangrove expansion to salt marsh loss on the Texas Gulf Coast. PLoS ONE, 10, e0125404.
6. Barbier EB, Hacker SD, Kennedy C, Koch EW, Stier AC, Silliman BR (2011) The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Ecological Monographs, 81, 169-193.
7. Bates AE, Barrett NS, Stuart-Smith RD, Holbrook NJ, Thompson PA, Edgar GJ (2014) Resilience and signatures of tropicalization in protected reef fish communities. Nature Climate Change, 4, 62-67.
8. Beisner BE, Haydon DT, Cuddington K (2003) Alternative stable states in ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 1, 376-382.
9. Berthrong ST, PIneiro G, Jobbágy EG, Jackson RB (2012) Soil C and N changes with afforestation of grasslands across gradients of precipitation and plantation age. Ecological Applications, 22, 76-86.
10. Bertness MD (1991) Interspecific interactions among high marsh perennials in a New England salt marsh. Ecology, 72, 125-137.
11. Bertness MD, Leonard GH (1997) The role of positive interactions in communities: lessons from intertidal habitats. Ecology, 78, 1976-1989.
12. Bianchi TS, Allison MA, Zhao J, Li X, Comeaux RS, Feagin RA, Kulawardhana RW (2013) Historical reconstruction of mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico: linking climate change with carbon sequestration in coastal wetlands. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 119, 7-16.
13. Bruno JF, Bertness MD (2001) Habitat modification and facilitation in benthic marine communities. In: Marine Community Ecology (eds Bertness MD, Gaines SD, Hay ME), pp. 201-218. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.
14. Bucher D, Saenger P (1994) A classification of tropical and subtropical Australian estuaries. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, 4, 1-19.
15. Caudill MC (2005) Nekton utilization of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) and smooth cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) sites in southwestern Caminada Bay, Louisiana. MS Thesis. Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA.
16. Cavanaugh KC, Kellner JR, Forde AJ, Gruner DS, Parker JD, Rodriguez W, Feller IC (2014) Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111, 723-727.
17. Cavanaugh KC, Parker JD, Cook-Patton SC, Feller IC, Park Williams A, Kellner JR (2015) Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion. Global Change Biology, 21, 1928-1938.
18. Chavez-Ramirez F (1996) Food availability, foraging ecology, and energetics of whooping cranes wintering in Texas. PhD Thesis. Texas A&M University, College Station, TX.
19. Chavez-Ramirez F, Wehtje W (2012) Potential impact of climate change scenarios on whooping crane life history. Wetlands, 32, 11-20.
20. Comeaux RS, Allison MA, Bianchi TS (2012) Mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico with climate change: implications for wetland health and resistance to rising sea levels. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 96, 81-95.
21. Couvillion BR, Barras JA, Steyer GD et al. (2011) Land area change in coastal Louisiana from 1932 to 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3164, scale 1:265, 000, 12 p. pamphlet.
22. Dayton PK (1972) Toward an understanding of community resilience and the potential effects of enrichments to the benthos at McMurdo Sound, Antartica. In: Proceedings of the Colloquium on Conservation Problems in Antartica (ed Parker BC), pp. 81-96. Allen Press, Lawrence, KS.
23. Didham RK, Watts CH, Norton DA (2005) Are systems with strong underly-ing abiotic regimes more likely to exhibit alternative stable states? Oikos, 110, 409-416.
24. D'Odorico P, He Y, Collins S, De Wekker SF, Engel V, Fuentes JD (2013) Vegetation-microclimate feedbacks in woodland-grassland ecotones. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22, 364-379.
25. Doughty CL, Langley JA, Walker WS, Feller IC, Schaub R, Chapman SK (2015) Mangrove range expansion rapidly increases coastal wetland carbon storage. Estuaries and Coasts, doi: 10.1007/s12237-015-9993-8.
26. Eldridge DJ, Bowker MA, Maestre FT, Roger E, Reynolds JF, Whitford WG (2011) Impacts of shrub encroachment on ecosystem structure and functioning: towards a global synthesis. Ecology Letters, 14, 709-722.
27. Ellison AM, Bank MS, Clinton BD et al. (2005) Loss of foundation species: consequences for the structure and dynamics of forested ecosystems. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 3, 479-486.
28. Engle VD (2011) Estimating the provision of ecosystem services by Gulf of Mexico coastal wetlands. Wetlands, 31, 179-193.
29. Field DW, Reyer AJ, Genovese PV, Shearer BD (1991) Coastal Wetlands of the United States: An Accounting of a Valuable National Resource. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD.
30. Fosberg FR (1961) Vegetation-free zone on dry mangrove coasts. U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper, 424-D, 216-218.
31. Giri C, Long J, Tieszen L (2011a) Mapping and monitoring Louisiana's mangroves in the aftermath of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill. Journal of Coastal Research, 27, 1059-1064.
32. Giri C, Ochieng E, Tieszen LL et al. (2011b) Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 154-159.
33. Glick P, Stein BA, Edelson NA (2011) Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to qClimate Change Vulnerability Assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.
34. Gunderson LH (2000) Ecological resilience-in theory and application. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 31, 425-439.
35. Guo H, Zhang Y, Lan Z, Pennings SC (2013) Biotic interactions mediate the expansion of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) into salt marshes under climate change. Global Change Biology, 19, 2765-2774.
36. Heck KL Jr, Fodrie FJ, Madsen S, Baillie CJ, Byron DA (2015) Seagrass consumption by native and a tropically associated fish species: potential impacts of the tropicalization of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 520, 165-173.
37. Henry KM (2012) Linking nitrogen biogeochemistry to different stages of wetland soil development in the Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana. PhD Thesis, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA.
38. Henry KM, Twilley RR (2013) Soil development in a coastal Louisiana wetland during a climate-induced vegetation shift from salt marsh to mangrove. Journal of Coastal Research, 29, 1273-1283.
39. Holdridge LR (1967) Life Zone Ecology. Tropical Science Center, San Jose, Costa Rica.
40. Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4, 1-23.
41. Jackson RB, Banner JL, Jobbágy EG, Pockman WT, Wall DH (2002) Ecosystem carbon loss with woody plant invasion of grasslands. Nature, 418, 623-626.
42. Jiang J, DeAngelis DL, Teh S-Y et al. (2015) Defining the next generation modeling of coastal ecotone dynamics in response to global change. Ecological Modelling, In press. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.04.013.
43. Kirwan ML, Megonigal JP (2013) Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise. Nature, 504, 53-60.
44. Krauss KW, McKee KL, Lovelock CE, Cahoon DR, Saintilan N, Reef R, Chen L (2014) How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level. New Phytologist, 202, 19-34.
45. Lewis DB, Brown JA, Jimenez KL (2014) Effects of flooding and warming on soil organic matter mineralization in Avicennia germinans mangrove forests and Juncus roemerianus salt marshes. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 139, 11-19.
46. Longley WL (1995) Estuaries. In: The Impact of Global Warming on Texas: A Report to the Task Force on Climate Change in Texas (eds North GR, Schmandt J, Clarkson J), pp. 88-118. The University of Texas, Austin, TX.
47. Lovelock CE, Krauss KW, Osland MJ, Reef R, Ball MC (In press) The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate. In: Tropical Tree Physiology: Adaptations and Responses in a Changing Environment (eds Goldstein GH, Santiago LS), Springer, New York.
48. Lugo AE, Patterson-Zucca C (1977) The impact of low temperature stress on mangrove structure and growth. Tropical Ecology, 18, 149-161.
49. McKee KL (2010) Biophysical controls on accretion and elevation change in Caribbean mangrove ecosystems. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 91, 475-483.
50. 2, climate, and sea level. In: Global Change and the Function and Distribution of Wetlands: Global Change Ecology and Wetlands (ed Middleton BA), pp. 63-96. Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands.
51. Mitsch WJ, Gosselink JG (2007) Wetlands. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
52. Moffett KB, Nardin W, Silvestri S, Wang C, Temmerman S (2015) Multiple stable states and catastrophic shifts in coastal wetlands: progress, challenges, and opportunities in validating theory using remote sensing and other methods. Remote Sensing, 7, 10184-10226.
53. Montagna PA, Gibeaut JC, Tunnell JW Jr (2007) South Texas climate 2100: coastal impacts. In: The Changing Climate of South Texas 1900-2100: Problems and Prospects, Impacts and Implications (eds Norwine J, John K), pp. 57-77. CREST-RESSACA. Texas A & M University, Kingsville, TX.
54. Montagna PA, Brenner J, Gibeaut J, Morehead S (2011) Coastal impacts. In: The Impact of Global Warming on Texas, 2nd edn (eds Schmandt J, North GR, Clarkson J), pp. 96-123. University of Texas Press, Austin, TX.
55. Morris JT, Sundareshwar PV, Nietch CT, Kjerfve B, Cahoon DR (2002) Response of coastal wetlands to rising sea level. Ecology, 83, 2869-2877.
56. Osland MJ, Spivak AC, Nestlerode JA et al. (2012) Ecosystem development after mangrove wetland creation: plant-soil change across a 20-year chronosequence. Ecosystems, 15, 848-866.
57. Osland MJ, Enwright N, Day RH, Doyle TW (2013) Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes versus mangrove forests in the southeastern United States. Global Change Biology, 19, 1482-1494.
58. Osland MJ, Enwright N, Stagg CL (2014) Freshwater availability and coastal wetland foundation species: ecological transitions along a rainfall gradient. Ecology, 95, 2789-2802.
59. Osland MJ, Day RH, From AS, McCoy ML, McLeod JL, Kelleway JJ (2015) Life stage influences the resistance and resilience of black mangrove forests to winter climate extremes. Ecosphere, 6, 160.
60. Pennings SC, Bertness MD (1999) Using latitudinal variation to examine effects of climate on coastal salt marsh pattern and process. Current Topics in Wetland Biogeochemistry, 3, 100-111.
61. Pennings SC, Bertness MD (2001) Salt marsh communities. In: Marine Community Ecology (eds Bertness MD, Gaines SD, Hay M), pp. 289-316. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA.
62. Perillo GME, Wolanski E, Cahoon DR, Brinson MM (2009) Coastal Wetlands: An Integrated Ecosystem Approach. Elsevier, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
63. Perry CL, Mendelssohn IA (2009) Ecosystem effects of expanding populations of Avicennia germinans in a Louisiana salt marsh. Wetlands, 29, 396-406.
64. Peters DPC, Havstad KM, Archer SR, Sala OE (2015) Beyond desertification: new paradigms for dryland landscapes. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 13, 4-12.
65. Quisthoudt K, Schmitz N, Randin CF, Dahdouh-Guebas F, Robert EMR, Koedam N (2012) Temperature variation among mangrove latitudinal range limits worldwide. Trees, 26, 1919-1931.
66. Rasser MK, Fowler NL, Dunton KH (2013) Elevation and plant community distribution in a microtidal salt marsh of the western Gulf of Mexico. Wetlands, 33, 575-583.
67. Record S, Charney ND, Zakaria RM, Ellison AM (2013) Projecting global mangrove species and community distributions under climate change. Ecosphere, 4, art34.
68. Reynolds JF, Smith DMS, Lambin EF et al. (2007) Global desertification: building a science for dryland development. Science, 316, 847-851.
69. Ridd P, Sandstrom MW, Wolanski E (1988) Outwelling from tropical tidal salt flats. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 26, 243-253.
70. Riley ME, Johnston CA, Feller IC, Griffen BD (2014) Range expansion of Aratus pisonii (Mangrove Tree Crab) into novel vegetative habitats. Southeastern Naturalist, 13, N43-N48.
71. Saenger P (2002) Mangrove Ecology, Silviculture and Conservation. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dodrecht, the Netherlands.
72. Saintilan N, Rogers K (2015) Woody plant encroachment of grasslands: a comparison of terrestrial and wetland settings. New Phytologist, 205, 1062-1070.
73. Saintilan N, Wilson NC, Rogers K, Rajkaran A, Krauss KW (2014) Mangrove expansion and salt marsh decline at mangrove poleward limits. Global Change Biology, 20, 147-157.
74. Scheffer M, Carpenter SR (2003) Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory to observation. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 18, 648-656.
75. Schlesinger WH, Reynolds J, Cunningham GL, Huenneke L, Jarrell W, Virginia R, Whitford W (1990) Biological feedbacks in global desertification. Science, 247, 1043-1048.
76. Semeniuk V (2013) Predicted response of coastal wetlands to climate changes: a Western Australian model. Hydrobiologia, 708, 23-43.
77. Srivastava DS, Jefferies RL (1996) A positive feedback: herbivory, plant growth, salinity, and the desertification of an Arctic salt-marsh. Journal of Ecology, 84, 31-42.
78. Stein BA, Glick P, Edelson NA, Staudt A (2014) Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles Into Practice. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, DC.
79. Stevens PW, Fox SL, Montague CL (2006) The interplay between mangroves and saltmarshes at the transition between temperate and subtropical climate in Florida. Wetlands Ecology and Management, 14, 435-444.
80. Stuart SA, Choat B, Martin KC, Holbrook NM, Ball MC (2007) The role of freezing in setting the latitudinal limits of mangrove forests. New Phytologist, 173, 576-583.
81. Tomlinson PB (1986) The Botany of Mangroves. Cambridge University Press, New York.
82. Trabucco A, Zomer R (2009) Global aridity index (global-aridity) and global potential evapo-transpiration (global-PET) geospatial database. CGIAR Consortium for Spatial Information. Available from the CGIARCSI GeoPortal at: http://www.cgiar-csi.org (accessed 22 April 2011).
83. Twilley RR, Day JW (2012) Mangrove wetlands. In: Estuarine Ecology, 2nd edn (eds Day JW, Crump BC, Kemp MW, Yáñez-Arancibia A), pp. 165-202. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ.
84. Vergés A, Steinberg PD, Hay ME et al. (2014) The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281, 20140846.
85. Whittaker RH (1970) Communities and Ecosystems. The Macmillan Company, New York.
86. Wilson JB, Agnew ADQ (1992) Positive-feedback switches in plant communities. Advances in Ecological Research, 23, 263-336.
87. Yando ES (2014) Mangrove forest expansion and development in the northern Gulf of Mexico: a comparison of plant-soil interactions across a salt marsh-mangrove ecotone. MS Thesis. University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA.
88. Zedler JB (1982) The Ecology of Southern California Coastal Salt Marshes: A Community Profile. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Biological Services Program. FWS/OBS-81/54, Washington, DC.