Antenatal blood pressure for prediction of pre-eclampsia, preterm birth, and small for gestational age babies: Development and validation in two general population cohorts

BMJ (Online)

Volumn 351, Issue , 2015, Pages

  Macdonald Wallis, Corrie ^a   Silverwood, Richard J ^b   De Stavola, Bianca L ^b   Inskip, Hazel ^c,d   Cooper, Cyrus ^c,d,e   Godfrey, Keith M ^c,d   Crozier, Sarah ^c   Fraser, Abigail ^a   Nelson, Scott M ^f   Lawlor, Debbie A ^a   Tilling, Kate ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

^b LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL SOUTHAMPTON NHS FOUNDATION TRUST   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF GLASGOW   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; BLOOD PRESSURE; BLOOD PRESSURE MEASUREMENT; FEMALE; FOLLOW UP; GESTATIONAL AGE; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; MALE; NEWBORN; PATHOPHYSIOLOGY; PHYSIOLOGY; PRE-ECLAMPSIA; PREGNANCY; PREMATURE BIRTH; PROCEDURES; PROGNOSIS; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; RISK FACTOR; SMALL FOR DATE INFANT; UNITED KINGDOM; VALIDATION STUDY;

ADULT; BLOOD PRESSURE; BLOOD PRESSURE DETERMINATION; FEMALE; FOLLOW-UP STUDIES; GESTATIONAL AGE; HUMANS; INFANT, NEWBORN; INFANT, SMALL FOR GESTATIONAL AGE; MALE; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; PRE-ECLAMPSIA; PREGNANCY; PREMATURE BIRTH; PROGNOSIS; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES; RISK FACTORS; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84952697997     PISSN: 09598146     EISSN: 17561833     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h5948     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Centre for Maternal and Child Enquiries (CMACE). Saving mothers' lives: reviewing maternal deaths to make motherhood safer: 2006-08. The Eighth Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the United Kingdom. Br J Obstet Gynaecol 2011;118(suppl 1):1-203.
2. Centre for Maternal and Child Enquiries (CMACE). Perinatal mortality 2009: United Kingdom. CMACE, 2011.
3. Ananth CV, Peedicayil A, Savitz DA. Effect of hypertensive diseases in pregnancy on birth-weight, gestational duration, and small-forgestational- age births. Epidemiology 1995;6:391-95.
4. Bakker R, Steegers EAP, Hofman A, Jaddoe VWV. Blood pressure in different gestational trimesters, fetal growth, and the risk of adverse birth outcomes. The Generation R Study. Am J Epidemiol 2011;174:797-806.
5. Xiong X, Demianczuk NN, Saunders LD, Wang FL, Fraser WD. Impact of preeclampsia and gestational hypertension on birth weight by gestational age. Am J Epidemiol 2002;155:203-9.
6. Brown MA, Lindheimer MD, de Swiet M, Van Assche A, Moutquin JM. The classification and diagnosis of the hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: statement from the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy (ISSHP). Hypertens Pregnancy 2001;20:IX-XIV.
7. Greer IA. Pre-eclampsia matters. BMJ 2005;330:549-50.
8. Milne F, Redman C, Walker J, Baker P, Bradley J, Cooper C, et al. The pre-eclampsia community guideline (PRECOG): how to screen for and detect onset of pre-eclampsia in the community. BMJ 2005;330:576-80.
9. Steegers EA, von DP, Duvekot JJ, Pijnenborg R. Pre-eclampsia. Lancet 2010;376:631-44.
10. Koopmans CM, Bijlenga D, Groen H, et al. Induction of labour versus expectant monitoring for gestational hypertension or mild pre-eclampsia after 36 weeks' gestation (HYPITAT): a multicentre, open-label randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2009;374:979-88.
11. Macdonald-Wallis C, Lawlor DA, Fraser A, May M, Nelson SM, Tilling K. Blood pressure change in normotensive, gestational hypertensive, preeclamptic, and essential hypertensive pregnancies. Hypertension 2012;59:1241-48.
12. Gaillard R, Bakker R, Willemsen SP, Hofman A, Steegers EA, Jaddoe VW. Blood pressure tracking during pregnancy and the risk of gestational hypertensive disorders: the Generation R Study. Eur Heart J 2011;32:3088-97.
13. Steer PJ, Little MP, Kold-Jensen T, Chapple J, Elliott P. Maternal blood pressure in pregnancy, birth weight, and perinatal mortality in first births: prospective study. BMJ 2004;329:1312-14.
14. Macdonald-Wallis C, Tilling K, Fraser A, Nelson SM, Lawlor DA. Associations of blood pressure change in pregnancy with fetal growth and gestational age at delivery: findings from a prospective cohort. Hypertension 2014;64:36-44.
15. North RA, Mccowan LME, Dekker GA, et al. Clinical risk prediction for pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women: development of model in international prospective cohort. BMJ 2011;342:d1875.
16. Akolekar R, Syngelaki A, Sarquis R, Zvanca M, Nicolaides KH. Prediction of early, intermediate and late pre-eclampsia from maternal factors, biophysical and biochemical markers at 11-13 weeks. Prenat Diagn 2011;31:66-74.
17. Broughton Pipkin F, Sharif J, Lal S. Predicting high blood pressure in pregnancy: a multivariate approach. J Hypertens 1998;16:221-9.
18. Myatt L, Clifton RG, Roberts JM, et al. First-trimester prediction of preeclampsia in nulliparous women at low risk. Obstet Gynecol 2012;119:1234-42.
19. Nijdam ME, Janssen KJM, Moons KGM, et al. Prediction model for hypertension in pregnancy in nulliparous women using information obtained at the first antenatal visit. J Hypertens 2010;28:119-26.
20. Poon LCY, Kametas NA, Pandeva I, Valencia C, Nicolaides KH. Mean arterial pressure at 11(+0) to 13(+6) weeks in the prediction of preeclampsia. Hypertension 2008;51:1027-33.
21. Poon LCY, Kametas NA, Maiz N, Akolekar R, Nicolaides KH. First-trimester prediction of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy. Hypertension 2009;53:812-18.
22. Kenny LC, Black MA, Poston L, et al. Early pregnancy prediction of preeclampsia in nulliparous women, combining clinical risk and biomarkers: the screening for pregnancy endpoints (SCOPE) international cohort study. Hypertension 2014;64:644-52.
23. Chappell LC, Seed PT, Myers J, et al. Exploration and confirmation of factors associated with uncomplicated pregnancy in nulliparous women: prospective cohort study. BMJ 2013;347:f6398.
24. Macdonald-Wallis C, Silverwood R, Fraser A, et al. Gestational-agespecific reference ranges for blood pressure in pregnancy: findings from a prospective cohort. J Hypertens 2014;33:10.
25. Collins GS, Reitsma JB, Altman DG, Moons KG. Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. BMJ 2015;350:g7594.
26. Fraser A, Macdonald-Wallis C, Tilling K, et al. Cohort profile: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children: ALSPAC mothers cohort. Int J Epidemiol 2012;42:14.
27. Steyerberg EW, Moons KG, van der Windt DA, et al. Prognosis research strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research. PLoS Med 2013;10:e1001381.
28. Inskip HM, Godfrey KM, Robinson SM, et al. Cohort profile: the Southampton Women's Survey. Int J Epidemiol 2006;35:42-8.
29. National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. Antentatal care. NICE Clinical Guideline CG62. NICE, 2008. http://guidance.nice.org.uk/CG62.
30. Rubin DB. Multiple imputation after 18+ years. J Am Stat Assoc 1996;91:473-89.
31. Vergouwe Y, Royston P, Moons KGM, Altman DG. Development and validation of a prediction model with missing predictor data: a practical approach. J Clin Epidemiol 2010;63:205-14.
32. Sterne JA, White IR, Carlin JB, et al. Multiple imputation for missing data in epidemiological and clinical research: potential and pitfalls. BMJ 2009;338:b2393.
33. Steyerberg EW, Borsboom GJ, van Houwelingen HC, Eijkemans MJ, Habbema JD. Validation and updating of predictive logistic regression models: a study on sample size and shrinkage. Stat Med 2004;23:2567-86.
34. Leckie G, Charlton C. runmlwin: Stata module for fitting multilevel models in the MLwiN software package. Centre for Multilevel Modelling, University of Bristol, 2011.
35. Vergouwe Y, Steyerberg EW, Eijkemans MJC, Habbema JDF. Substantial effective sample sizes were required for external validation studies of predictive logistic regression models. J Clin Epidemiol 2005;5:475-83.
36. Kleinrouweler CE, Cheong-See FM, Collins GS, et al. Prognostic models in obstetrics: available, but far from applicable. Am J Obstet Gynecol 2015, doi:10.1016/j.ajog.2015.06.013.
37. Poon LC, Maiz N, Valencia C, Plasencia W, Nicolaides KH. Firsttrimester maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and pre-eclampsia. Ultrasound Obst Gynecol 2009;33:23-33.
38. Onwudiwe N, Yu CK, Poon LC, Spiliopoulos I, Nicolaides KH. Prediction of pre-eclampsia by a combination of maternal history, uterine artery Doppler and mean arterial pressure. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2008;32:877-83.
39. Plasencia W, Maiz N, Bonino S, Kaihura C, Nicolaides KH. Uterine artery Doppler at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks in the prediction of pre-eclampsia. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2007;30:742-9.
40. Plasencia W, Maiz N, Poon L, Yu C, Nicolaides KH. Uterine artery Doppler at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks and 21 + 0 to 24 + 6 weeks in the prediction of pre-eclampsia. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol 2008;32:138-46.
41. Cnossen JS, Vollebregt KC, de Vrieze N, et al. Accuracy of mean arterial pressure and blood pressure measurements in predicting pre-eclampsia: systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ 2008;336:1117-20.
42. Carroli G, Villar J, Piaggio G, et al. WHO systematic review of randomised controlled trials of routine antenatal care. Lancet 2001;357:1565-70.
43. Pell C, Menaca A, Were F, et al. Factors affecting antenatal care attendance: results from qualitative studies in Ghana, Kenya and Malawi. PLoS One 2013;8:e53747.
44. Vickers AJ, Elkin EB. Decision curve analysis: a novel method for evaluating prediction models. Med Decis Making 2006;26:565-74.
45. Bastawrous A, Cheeseman RC, Kumar A. iPhones for eye surgeons. Eye 2012;26:343-54.
46. Giardini ME, Livingstone IA, Jordan S, et al. A smartphone based ophthalmoscope. Proceedings of Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. 2014;2014:2177-80.
47. Heath VCF, Southall TR, Souka AP, Elisseou A, Nicolaides KH. Cervical length at 23 weeks of gestation: prediction of spontaneous preterm delivery. Ultrasound Obst Gynecol 1998;12:312-17.
48. Smith GC, Stenhouse EJ, Crossley JA, Aitken DA, Cameron AD, Connor JM. Early pregnancy levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein a and the risk of intrauterine growth restriction, premature birth, preeclampsia, and stillbirth. J Clin Endocrinol Metab 2002;87:1762-7.
49. Dugoff L, Hobbins JC, Malone FD, et al. First-trimester maternal serum PAPP-A and free-beta subunit human chorionic gonadotropin concentrations and nuchal translucency are associated with obstetric complications: a population-based screening study (the FASTER Trial). Am J Obstet Gynecol 2004;191:1446-51.