Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

Cryosphere

Volumn 9, Issue 6, 2015, Pages 2429-2446

  Goldberg, D N ^a   Heimbach, P ^b   Joughin, I ^c   Smith, B ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CALIBRATION; GLACIER FLOW; GLACIER MASS BALANCE; ICE MOVEMENT; ICE RETREAT; ICE STREAM; MODEL TEST; NUMERICAL MODEL; SEA LEVEL CHANGE;

ANTARCTICA; KOHLER GLACIER; POPE GLACIER; SMITH GLACIER; WEST ANTARCTICA;

EID: 84951928364     PISSN: 19940416     EISSN: 19940424     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-2429-2015     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Arthern, R. J.: Exploring the use of transformation group priors and the method of maximum relative entropy for Bayesian glaciological inversions, J. Glaciol., 61, 947-962, doi:10.3189/2015JoG15J050, 2015.
2. Arthern, R. J., Winebrenner, D. P., and Vaughan, D. G.: Antarctic snow accumulation mapped using polarization of 4.3-cm wavelength microwave emission, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D06107, doi:10.1029/2004JD005667, 2006.
3. Blair, B. and Hofton, M.: IceBridge LVIS L2 Geolocated Surface Elevation Product, v1, http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/icebridge/ilvis2/ (last access: December 2012), 2010.
4. Cuffey, K. and Paterson, W. S. B.: The Physics of Glaciers, 4th Edn., Butterworth Heinemann, Oxford, 2010.
5. Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Favier, L., Zwinger, T., and leMeur, E.: Impact of bedrock description on modeling ice sheet dynamics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L20501, doi:10.1029/2011GL048892, 2011.
6. Favier, L., Durand, G., Cornford, S. L., Gudmundsson, G. H., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Zwinger, T., Payne, A., and Brocq, A. M. L.: Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 117-121, doi:10.1038/nclimate2094, 2014.
7. Fretwell, P., Pritchard, H. D., Vaughan, D. G., Bamber, J. L., Barrand, N. E., Bell, R., Bianchi, C., Bingham, R. G., Blankenship, D. D., Casassa, G., Catania, G., Callens, D., Conway, H., Cook, A. J., Corr, H. F. J., Damaske, D., Damm, V., Ferraccioli, F., Forsberg, R., Fujita, S., Gim, Y., Gogineni, P., Griggs, J. A., Hindmarsh, R. C. A., Holmlund, P., Holt, J. W., Jacobel, R. W., Jenkins, A., Jokat, W., Jordan, T., King, E. C., Kohler, J., Krabill, W., Riger-Kusk, M., Langley, K. A., Leitchenkov, G., Leuschen, C., Luyendyk, B. P., Matsuoka, K., Mouginot, J., Nitsche, F. O., Nogi, Y., Nost, O. A., Popov, S. V., Rignot, E., Rippin, D. M., Rivera, A., Roberts, J., Ross, N., Siegert, M. J., Smith, A. M., Steinhage, D., Studinger, M., Sun, B., Tinto, B. K., Welch, B. C., Wilson, D., Young, D. A., Xiangbin, C., and Zirizzotti, A.: Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 7, 375-393, doi:10.5194/tc-7-375-2013, 2013.
8. Gebbie, G., Heimbach, P., andWunsch, C.: Strategies for nested and eddy-permitting state estimation, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 111, C10073, doi:10.1029/2005JC003094, 2006.
9. Giering, R. and Kaminski, T.: Recipes for adjoint code construction, ACM Trans. Math. Softw., 24, 437-474, 1998.
10. Goldberg, D. N.: A variationally-derived, depth-integrated approximation to a higher-order glaciologial flow model, J. Glaciol., 57, 157-170, 2011.
11. Goldberg, D. N. and Heimbach, P.: Parameter and state estimation with a time-dependent adjoint marine ice sheet model, The Cryosphere, 7, 1659-1678, doi:10.5194/tc-7-1659-2013, 2013.
12. Goldberg, D. N. and Sergienko, O. V.: Data assimilation using a hybrid ice flow model, The Cryosphere, 5, 315-327, doi:10.5194/tc-5-315-2011, 2011.
13. Goldberg, D. N., Holland, D. M., and Schoof, C. G.: Grounding line movement and ice shelf buttressing in marine ice sheets, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 114, F04026, doi:10.1029/2008JF001227, 2009.
14. Griewank, A. and Walther, A.: Evaluating Derivatives. Principles and Techniques of Algorithmic Differentiation, in: Vol. 19 of Frontiers in Applied Mathematics, 2nd Edn., SIAM, Philadelphia, 2008.
15. Griggs, J. and Bamber, J.: Antarctic ice-shelf thickness from satellite radar altimetry, J. Glaciol., 57, 485-498, doi:10.3189/002214311796905659, 2011.
16. Heimbach, P. and Bugnion, V.: Greenland ice-sheet volume sensitivity to basal, surface and initial conditions derived from an adjoint model, Ann. Glaciol., 50, 67-80, 2009.
17. Heimbach, P., Hill, C., and Giering, R.: An efficient exact adjoint of the parallel MIT general circulation model, generated via automatic differentiation, Future Gener. Comput. Syst., 21, 1356-1371, 2005.
18. Hindmarsh, R. C. A.: The role of membrane-like stresses in determining the stability and sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets: back pressure and grounding line motion, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 364, 1733-1767, 2006.
19. Isaac, T., Petra, N., Stadler, G., and Ghattas, O.: Scalable and efficient algorithms for the propagation of uncertainty from data through inference to prediction for large-scale problems, with application to flow of the Antarctic ice sheet, ArXiv e-prints, 2014.
20. Jamieson, S. S. R., Vieli, A., Livingstone, S. J., Cofaigh, C. O., Stokes, C., Hillenbrand, C.-D., and Dowdeswell, J. A.: Ice-stream stability on a reverse bed slope, Nat. Geosci., 5, 799-802, doi:10.1038/ngeo1600, 2012.
21. Jenkins, A., Dutrieux, P., Jacobs, S. S., McPhail, S. D., Perrett, J. R., Webb, A. T., and White, D.: Observations beneath Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica and implications for its retreat, Nat. Geosci., 3, 468-472, 2010.
22. Joughin, I., Tulaczyk, S., Bamber, J. L., Blankenship, D., Holt, J. W., Scambos, T., and Vaughan, D. G.: Basal conditions for Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, determined using satellite and airborne data, J. Glaciol., 55, 245-257, 2009.
23. Joughin, I., Smith, B., and Holland, D. M.: Sensitivity of 21st Century Sea Level to Ocean-Induced Thinning of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20502, doi:10.1029/2010GL044819, 2010.
24. Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., and Medley, B.: Marine Ice Sheet Collapse Potentially Under Way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica, Science, 344, 735-738, doi:10.1126/science.1249055, 2014.
25. Kalmikov, A. G. and Heimbach, P.: A Hessian-Based Method for Uncertainty Quantification in Global Ocean State Estimation, SIAM J. Scient. Comput., 36, S267-S295, doi:10.1137/130925311, 2014.
26. Krabill, W. B.: IceBridge ATM L2 Icessn Elevation, Slope, and Roughness, v1, http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/icebridge/ilatm2/index.html (last access: December 2012), 2010.
27. Larour, E., Rignot, E., and Aubry, D.: Processes involved in the propagation of rifts near Hemmen Ice Rise, Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, J. Glaciol., 50, 329-341, doi:10.3189/172756504781829837, 2004.
28. Larour, E., Utke, J., Csatho, B., Schenk, A., Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Schlegel, N., and Khazendar, A.: Inferred basal friction and surface mass balance of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream using data assimilation of ICESat (Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) surface altimetry and ISSM (Ice Sheet System Model), The Cryosphere, 8, 2335-2351, doi:10.5194/tc-8-2335-2014, 2014.
29. Lee, V., Cornford, S. L., and Payne, A. J.: Initialization of an ice sheet model for present day Greenland, Ann. Glaciol., 56, 129-140, doi:10.3189/2015AoG70A121, 2015.
30. MacAyeal, D. R.: Large-scale ice flow over a viscous basal sediment: Theory and application to Ice Stream B, Antarctica, J. Geophys. Res.-Solid, 94, 4071-4087, 1989.
31. MacAyeal, D. R.: The basal stress distribution of Ice Stream E, Antarctica, inferred by control methods, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 595-603, 1992.
32. McMillan, M., Shepherd, A., Sundal, A., Briggs, K., Muir, A., Ridout, A., Hogg, A., and Wingham, D.: Increased ice losses from Antarctica detected by CryoSat-2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3899-3905, doi:10.1002/2014GL060111, 2014.
33. Medley, B., Joughin, I., Smith, B. E., Das, S. B., Steig, E. J., Conway, H., Gogineni, S., Lewis, C., Criscitiello, A. S., McConnell, J. R., van den Broeke, M. R., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Bromwich, D. H., Nicolas, J. P., and Leuschen, C.: Constraining the recent mass balance of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica, with airborne observations of snow accumulation, The Cryosphere, 8, 1375-1392, doi:10.5194/tc-8-1375-2014, 2014.
34. Morland, L.W. and Shoemaker, E. M.: Ice shelf balance, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 5, 235-251, 1982.
35. Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Seroussi, G., Larour, E., Ben Dhia, H., and Aubry, D.: Spatial patterns of basal drag inferred using control methods from a full-Stokes and simpler models for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14502, doi:10.1029/2010GL043853, 2010.
36. Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Seroussi, H., Larour, E., Ben Dhia, H., and Aubry, D.: A mass conservation approach for mapping glacier ice thickness, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L19503, doi:10.1029/2011GL048659, 2011.
37. Oliver, D., Reynolds, A., and Liu, N.: Inverse Theory for Petroleum Reservoir Characterization and History Matching, Cambridge University Press, 2008.
38. Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A., and Padman, L.: Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating, Science, 348, 327-331, doi:10.1126/science.aaa0940, 2015.
39. Payne, A. J., Vieli, A., Shepherd, A., Wingham, D. J., and Rignot, E.: Recent dramatic thinning of largest West Antarctic ice stream triggered by oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L23401, doi:10.1029/2004GL021284, 2004.
40. Petra, N., Zhu, H., Stadler, G., Hughes, T. J., and Ghattas, O.: An inexact GaussNewton method for inversion of basal sliding and rheology parameters in a nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model, J. Glaciol., 58, 889-903, doi:10.3189/2012JoG11J182, 2012.
41. Price, S. F., Payne, A. J., Howat, I. M., and Smith, B. E.: Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade, P. Natl. Acad. Sci., 108, 8978-8983, doi:10.1073/pnas.1017313108, 2011.
42. Pritchard, H. D., Ligtenberg, S. R. M., Fricker, H. A., Vaughan, D. G., van den Broeke, M. R., and Padman, L.: Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves, Nature, 484, 502-505, doi:10.1038/nature10968, 2012.
43. Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., and Scheuchl, B.: Ice Flow of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Science, 333, 1427-1430, doi:10.1126/science.1208336, 2011.
44. Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H., and Scheuchl, B.: Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica from 1992 to 2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3502-3509, doi:10.1002/2014GL060140, 2014.
45. Schoof, C.: A variational approach to ice stream flow, J. Fluid Mech., 556, 227-251, 2006.
46. Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Larour, E., Aubry, D., Ben Dhia, H., and Kristensen, S. S.: Ice flux divergence anomalies on 79north Glacier, Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L09501, doi:10.1029/2011GL047338, 2011.
47. Seroussi, H., Morlighem, M., Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Larour, E., Schodlok, M., and Khazendar, A.: Sensitivity of the dynamics of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, to climate forcing for the next 50 years, The Cryosphere, 8, 1699-1710, doi:10.5194/tc-8-1699-2014, 2014.
48. Shepherd, A., Wingham, D. J., and Mansley, J.: Inland thinning of the Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, L1364, doi:10.1029/2001GL014183, 2002.
49. Sun, S., Cornford, S. L., Liu, Y., and Moore, J. C.: Dynamic response of Antarctic ice shelves to bedrock uncertainty, The Cryosphere, 8, 1561-1576, doi:10.5194/tc-8-1561-2014, 2014.
50. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
51. Tinto, K. J. and Bell, R. E.: Progressive unpinning of Thwaites Glacier from newly identified offshore ridge: Constraints from aerogravity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L20503, doi:10.1029/2011GL049026, 2011.
52. Tziperman, E. and Thacker, W. C.: An Optimal-Control/Adjoint-Equations Approach to Studying the Oceanic General Circulation, J. Phys. Ocean., 19, 1471-1485, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1989)019〈1471:AOCEAT〉2.0.CO;2, 1989.
53. Vaughan, D. G. and Arthern, R.: Why Is It Hard to Predict the Future of Ice Sheets?, Science, 315, 1503-1504, doi:10.1126/science.1141111, 2007.
54. Wang, Y. and Hou, S.: A new interpolation method for Antarctic surface temperature, Prog. Nat. Sci., 19, 1843-1849, doi:10.1016/j.pnsc.2009.07.012, 2009.
55. Wunsch, C. and Heimbach, P.: Practical global ocean state estimation, Physica D, 230, 197-208, 2007.
56. Wunsch, C. and Heimbach, P.: Dynamically and kinematically consistent global ocean circulation and ice state estimates, in: Ocean Circulation and Climate: A 21st Century Perspective, chap. 21, edited by: Siedler, G., Church, J., Gould, J., and Griffies, S., Elsevier, Oxford, 553-579, 2013.
57. Zwally, H. R., Schutz, H. R., Hancock, D., and Dimarzio, J.: GLAS/ICESat L2 Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet Altimetry Data (HDF5), NASA DAAC at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA, doi:10.5067/ICESAT/GLAS/DATA205, 2012.