Assessing nonstationary spatial patterns of extreme droughts from long-term high-resolution observational dataset on a semiarid basin (Spain)

Water (Switzerland)

Volumn 7, Issue 10, 2015, Pages 5458-5473

  Garcia Galiano, Sandra G ^a,b   Gimenez, Patricia Olmos ^a   Giraldo Osorio, Juan Diego ^c  

^a TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF CARTAGENA   (Spain)

^b University of California at Irvine   (United States)

^c PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA   (Colombia)

Author keywords

Climate change; Droughts; Natural hazards; Nonstationarity; Semiarid basin; Spain

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; DROUGHT; HAZARDS; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; REFORESTATION; WATER RESOURCES; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE; GENERALIZED ADDITIVE MODEL; NATURAL HAZARD; NON-STATIONARITIES; NON-STATIONARY PROBABILISTIC MODELS; SEMIARID BASIN; SPAIN; WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 84949294004     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20734441     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3390/w7105458     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Labat, D.; Goddéris, Y.; Probst, J.L.; Guyot, J.L. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Adv. Water Resour. 2004, 27, 631-642.
2. Huntington, T.G. Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis. J. Hydrol. 2006, 319, 83-95.
3. Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Mata, L.J.; Arnell, N.; Döll, P.; Kabat, P.; Jiménez, B.; Miller, K.; Oki, T.; Sen, Z.; Shiklomanov, I. Freshwater resources and their management. In Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Parry M.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J., Hanson C.E., Eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2007; pp. 173-210.
4. Milly, P.C.D.; Betancourt, J.; Falkenmark, M.; Hirsch, R.M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Stouffer, R.J. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science 2008, 319, 573-574.
5. Hirsch, R.M. A perspective on nonstationarity and water management1. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 2011, 47, 436-446.
6. Rigby, B.; Stasinopoulos, M.; Akantziliotou, C. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape. Appl. Stat. 2005, 54, 507-554.
7. Mishra, A.K.; Singh, V.P. Drought modeling-A review. J. Hydrol. 2011, 403, 157-175.
8. Dracup, J.A.; Lee, K.S.; Paulson, E.G. On the definition of droughts. Water Resour. Res. 1980, 16, 297-302.
9. Martin-Vide, J.; Gomez, L. Regionalization of peninsular Spain based on the length of dry spells. Int. J. Climatol. 1999, 19, 537-555.
10. Paredes, D.; Trigo, R.M.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Trigo, I.F. Understanding precipitation changes in Iberia in early spring: Weather typing and storm-tracking approaches. J. Hydrometeorol. 2006, 7, 101-113.
11. Vicente-Serrano, S.M.; Cuadrat-Prats, J.M. Trends in drought intensity and variability in the middle Ebro valley (NE of the Iberian Peninsula) during the second half of the twentieth century. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2006, 88, 247-258.
12. Wet and Dry Spell Analysis Using Copulas. Available online: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4369/abstract;jsessionid=7114E4C372F3FEE469EDBF7D9646077C.f01t02?userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage= (accessed on 5 October 2015).
13. García-Herrera, R.; Hernández, E.; Barriopedro, D.; Paredes, D.; Trigo, R.M.; Trigo, I.F.; Mendes, M.A. The outstanding 2004/05 drought in the Iberian Peninsula: Associated atmospheric circulation. J. Hydrometeorol. 2007, 8, 483-498.
14. Estrela, M.J.; Peñarrocha, D.; Millán, M. Multi-annual drought episodes in the Mediterranean (Valencia region) from 1950-1996. A spatio-temporal analysis. Int. J. Climatol. 2000, 20, 1599-1618.
15. Vicente-Serrano, S.M.; López-Moreno, J.I. Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2005, 9, 523-533.
16. López-Moreno, J.I.; Beguería, S.; Vicente-Serrano, S.M.; García-Ruiz, J.M. Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on water resources in central Iberia: Precipitation, streamflow anomalies, and reservoir management strategies. Water Resour. Res. 2007, 43, W09411.
17. Lorenzo-Lacruz, J.; Vicente-Serrano, S.M.; López-Moreno, J.I.; Beguería, S.; García-Ruiz, J.M.; Cuadrat, J.M. The impact of droughts and water management on various hydrological systems in the headwaters of the Tagus River (central Spain). J. Hydrol. 2010, 386, 13-26.
18. Boix-Fayos, C.; Barberá, G.G.; López-Bermúdez, F.; Castillo, V.M. Effects of check dams, reforestation and land-use changes on river channel morphology: Case study of the Rogativa catchment (Murcia, Spain). Geomorphology 2007, 91, 103-123.
19. González del Tánago, M.; Bejarano, M.D.; García de Jalón, D.; Schmidt, J.C. Biogeomorphic responses to flow regulation and fine sediment supply in Mediterranean streams (the Guadalete River, southern Spain). J. Hydrol. 2015, 528, 751-762.
20. Rodríguez-Caballero, E.; Cantón, Y.; Lazaro, R.; Solé-Benet, A. Cross-scale interactions between surface components and rainfall properties. Non-linearities in the hydrological and erosive behavior of semiarid catchments. J. Hydrol. 2014, 517, 815-825.
21. Ibrahim, B.; Karambiri, H.; Polcher, J. Hydrological impacts of the changes in simulated rainfall fields on Nakanbe Basin in Burkina Faso. Climate 2015, 3, 442-458.
22. Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J.M.; Ancell, R.; Pons, M.R.; Frías, M.D.; Fernández, J. Development and analysis of a 50-year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02). Int. J. Climatol. 2012, 32, 74-85.
23. Urrea Mallebrera, M.A.; Mérida Abril, A.; García Galiano, S.G. Segura River Basin: Spanish pilot river basin regarding water scarcity and droughts. In Agricultural Drought Indices. Proceedings of the WMO/UNISDR Expert Group Meeting on Agricultural Drought Indices; Mannava, V.K.S., Motha, R.P., Wilhite, D.A., Wood, D.A., Eds.; World Meteorological Organization; Geneva, Switzerland, 2011.
24. Brouwer, C.; Heibloem, M. Irrigation Water Management, Training Manual 3: Irrigation Water Needs. Available online: http://www.fao.org/docrep/s2022e/s2022e00.HTM (accessed on 15 September 2015).
25. Karl, T.R.; Nicholls, N.; Ghazi, A. Clivar/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes workshop summary. Clim. Chang. 1999, 42, 3-7.
26. Stasinopoulos, M.; Rigby, R.A. Generalized additive models for location scale and shape (GAMLSS) in R. J. Stat. Softw. 2007, 23, 1-46.
27. Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F. Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin. Adv. Water Resour. 2009, 32, 1255-1266.
28. Giraldo Osorio, J.D.; García Galiano, S.G. Building hazard maps of extreme daily rainy events from PDF ensemble, via REA method, on Senegal River Basin. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2011, 15, 3605-3615.
29. Schwarz, G. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann. Stat. 1978, 6, 461-464.
30. Akaike, H. A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans. Autom. Control 1974, 19, 716-723.
31. Filliben, J.J. The probability plot correlation coefficient test for normality. Technometrics 1975, 17, 111-117.
32. Van Buuren, S.; Fredriks, M. Worm plot: A simple diagnostic device for modelling growth reference curves. Stat. Med. 2001, 20, 1259-1277.
33. López Bustos, C. Contribución al estudio del régimen de precipitaciones de Ciudad Real y su provincia. Cuadernos de Estudios Manchegos; Publicaciones del Instituto de Estudios Manchegos: Ciudad Real, Spain, 1958, pp. 55-71. (In Spanish).
34. Katz, R.W.; Brown, B.G. Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Clim. Chang. 1992, 21, 289-302.
35. Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A. Analysis of the stationarity of floods peaks in the United States. In Workshop of Nonstationarity, Hydrologic Frequency Analysis, and Water Management; Olsen, J.R., Kiang, J., Waskom, R., Eds.; Colorado Water Institute: Boulder, CO, USA, 2010; pp. 81-97.