Future Land-Use Changes and the Potential for Novelty in Ecosystems of the United States

Ecosystems

Volumn 18, Issue 8, 2015, Pages 1332-1342

  Martinuzzi, Sebastián ^a   Gavier Pizarro, Gregorio I ^b   Lugo, Ariel E ^c   Radeloff, Volker C ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^b INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE TECNOLOGÍA AGROPECUARIA INTA   (Argentina)

^c USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

Author keywords

Anthropocene; biodiversity; global change; land use change; novel ecosystems; scenarios

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOCENE; BIODIVERSITY; ECOLOGICAL THEORY; ECOSYSTEM APPROACH; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; FUTURE PROSPECT; GLOBAL CHANGE; LAND USE CHANGE; NATURE CONSERVATION;

NEW ZEALAND; SOUTH ISLAND; UNITED STATES; WEST COAST [SOUTH ISLAND];

EID: 84947492173     PISSN: 14329840     EISSN: 14350629     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10021-015-9901-x     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Baer SG, Engle DM, Knops JMN, Langeland KA, Maxwell BD, Menalled FD, Symstad AJ. 2009. Vulnerability of rehabilitated agricultural production systems to invasion by nontarget plant species. Environ Manag 43:189–96.
2. Baer S, Kitchen D, Blair J, Rice C. 2002. Changes in ecosystem structure and function along a chronosequence of restored grasslands. Ecol Appl 12:1688–701.
3. Bellard C, Thuiller W, Leroy B, Genovesi P, Bakkenes M, Courchamp F. 2013. Will climate change promote future invasions? Glob Change Biol 19:3740–8.
4. Bradley BA, Blumenthal DM, Wilcove DS, Ziska LH. 2010. Predicting plant invasions in an era of global change. Trends Ecol Evolut 25:310–18.
5. Bradley BA, Mustard JF. 2006. Characterizing the landscape dynamics of an invasive plant and risk of invasion using remote sensing. Ecol Appl 16:1132–47.
6. Chace JF, Walsh JJ. 2006. Urban effects on native avifauna: a review. Landsc Urban Plan 74:46–69.
7. Cramer VA, Hobbs RJ, Standish RJ. 2008. What’s new about old fields? Land abandonment and ecosystem assembly. Trends Ecol Evol 23:104–12.
8. Duguay S, Eigenbrod F, Fahrig L. 2006. Effects of surrounding urbanization on non-native flora in small forest patches. Landsc Ecol 22:589–99.
9. Eliason SA, Allen EB. 1997. Exotic grass competition in suppressing native shrubland re-establishment. Restor Ecol 5:245–55.
10. Ellis EC. 2011. Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Philos Trans R Soc A 369:1010–35.
11. Elmore AJ, Mustard JF, Hamburg SP, Manning SJ. 2007. Agricultural legacies in the Great Basin alter vegetation cover, composition, and response to precipitation. Ecosystems 9:1231–41.
12. Fahrig L. 2003. Effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 34:487–515.
13. Gavier-Pizarro GI, Radeloff VC, Stewart SI, Huebner CD, Keuler NS. 2010a. Housing is positively associated with invasive exotic plant species richness in New England, USA. Ecol Appl 20:1913–25.
14. Gavier-Pizarro GI, Radeloff VC, Stewart SI, Huebner CD, Keuler NS. 2010b. Rural housing is related to plant invasions in forests of southern Wisconsin, USA. Landsc Ecol 25:1505–18.
15. Grau HR, Aide TM, Zimmerman JK, Thomlinson JR, Helmer E, Zou X. 2003. The ecological consequences of socioeconomic and land-use changes in postagriculture Puerto Rico. BioScience 53:1159–68.
16. Haim D, Alig RJ, Plantinga AJ, Sohngen B. 2011. Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach. Clim Change Econ 2:27–51.
17. Hamilton CM et al. 2013. Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network. PloS ONE 8:e55737.
18. Hobbs RJ et al. 2006. Novel ecosystems: theoretical and management aspects of the new ecological world order. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 15:1–7.
19. Hobbs RJ, Higgs E, Harris JA. 2009. Novel ecosystems: implications for conservation and restoration. Trends Ecol Evol 24:599–605.
20. Lawler JJ et al. 2014. Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the U.S. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111:7492–7.
21. Lindenmayer DB et al. 2008. Novel ecosystems resulting from landscape transformation create dilemmas for modern conservation practice. Conserv Lett 1:129–35.
22. Lubowski RN, Plantinga AJ, Stavins RN. 2006. Land-use change and carbon sinks: econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function. J Environ Econ Manag 51:135–52.
23. Lugo AE. 2004. The outcome of alien tree invasions in Puerto Rico. Front Ecol Environ 2:265–73.
24. Lugo AE. 2013. Novel tropical forests: nature’s response to global change. Trop Conserv Sci 6:325–37.
25. Martinuzzi S, Lugo AE, Brandeis TJ, Helmer EH. 2013a. Case study: geographic distribution and level of novelty of Puerto Rican forests. In: Hobbs RJ, Higgs ES, Hall CM, Eds. Novel ecosystems—intervening in the new ecological world order. Cichester, UK: Wiley. p 81–7.
26. Martinuzzi S, Radeloff VC, Higgins JV, Helmers DP, Plantinga AJ, Lewis DJ. 2013b. Key areas for conserving United States’ biodiversity likely threatened by future land use change. Ecosphere 4:58.
27. Martinuzzi S, Januchowski-Hartley SR, Pracheil BM, McIntyre PB, Plantinga AJ, Lewis DJ, Radeloff VC. 2014. Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States. Glob Change Biol 20:113–24.
28. McKinney ML. 2002. Urbanization, biodiversity, and conservation. BioScience 52:883–90.
29. Mcshea WJ, Healy WM, Devers P, Fearer T, Koch FH, Stauffer D, Waldon J. 2007. Forestry matters: decline of oaks will impact wildlife in hardwood forests. J Wildl Manag 71:1717–28.
30. Molina Colón SM, Lugo AE. 2006. Recovery of a subtropical dry forest after abandonment of different land uses. Biotropica 38:354–64.
31. Murcia C, Aronson J, Kattan GH, Moreno-Mateos D, Dixon K, Simberloff D. 2014. A critique of the ‘novel ecosystem’ concept. Trends Ecol Evol 29:548–53.
32. Nowacki G, Abrams M. 2008. The demise of fire and “mesophication” of forests in the eastern United States. BioScience 58:123–38.
33. Perring MP, Ellis EC. 2013. The extent of novel ecosystems: long in time and broad in space. In: Hobbs RJ, Higgs ES, Hall CM, Eds. Novel ecosystems—intervening in the new ecological world order. Cichester, UK: Wiley. p 66–80.
34. Perring MP, Manning P, Hobbs RJ, Lugo AE, Ramalho CE, Standish RJ. 2013. Novel urban ecosystems and ecosystem services. In: Hobbs RJ, Higgs ES, Hall CM, Eds. Novel ecosystems—intervening in the new ecological world order. Cichester, UK: Wiley. p 310–25.
35. Polasky S, Carpenter SR, Folke C, Keeler B. 2011. Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecol Evol 26:398–404.
36. Potter KM, Smith WD. 2012. Large-scale assessment of invasiveness and potential for ecological impact by nonnative tree species. In: Potter KM, Conkling BL, Eds. Forest health monitoring 2009. Asheville, NC: National Technical Report, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. p 79–94.
37. Radeloff VC, Hammer RB, Stewart SI, Fried JS, Holcomb SS, McKeefry JF. 2005. The wildland-urban interface in the United States. Ecol Appl 15:799–805.
38. Radeloff VC et al. 2012. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios. Ecol Appl 22:1036–49.
39. Radeloff VC et al. in press. The rise of novelty in ecosystems. Ecol Appl.
40. Riitters K, Wickham J, O’Neill R. 2002. Fragmentation of continental United States forests. Ecosystems 5:815–22.
41. Rodewald AD, Abrams MD. 2002. Floristics and avian community structure: implications for regional changes in Eastern forest composition. For Sci 48:267–71.
42. Rogers DA, Rooney TP, Olson D, Waller DM. 2008. Shifts in southern Wisconsin forest canopy and understory richness, composition, and heterogeneity. Ecology 89:2482–92.
43. Schulte LA, Mladenoff DJ, Crow TR, Merrick LC, Cleland DT. 2007. Homogenization of northern U.S. Great Lakes forests due to land use. Landsc Ecol 22:1089–103.
44. Seastedt TR, Hobbs RJ, Suding KN. 2008. Management of novel ecosystems: are novel approaches required? Front Ecol Environ 6:547–53.
45. Stohlgren TJ, Barnett D, Flather C, Fuller P, Peterjohn B, Kartesz J, Master LL. 2006. Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and fishes in the United States. Biol Invasions 8:427–47.
46. Sullivan JJ, Timmins SM, Williams PA. 2005. Movement of exotic plants into coastal native forests from gardens in northern New Zealand. N Z J Ecol 29:1–10.
47. Theoharides KA, Dukes JS. 2007. Plant invasion across space and time: factors affecting nonindigenous species success during four stages of invasion. New Phytol 176:256–73.
48. Thompson JR, Carpenter DN, Cogbill CV, Foster DR. 2013. Four centuries of change in northeastern United States forests. PloS ONE 8:e72540.
49. Tyser RW, Worley CA. 1992. Alien flora in grasslands to adjacent to road and trail corridors in Glacier National Corridors (U.S.A.). Conserv Biol 6:253–62.
50. Vilà M, Ibáñez I. 2011. Plant invasions in the landscape. Landsc Ecol 26:461–72.
51. Vitousek P, D’Antonio C. 1997. Introduced species: a significant component of human-caused global change. N Z J Ecol 21:1–16.
52. Williams JW, Jackson ST. 2007. Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Front Ecol Environ 5:475–82.
53. Wood EM, Pidgeon AM, Liu F, Mladenoff DJ. 2012. Birds see the trees inside the forest: the potential impacts of changes in forest composition on songbirds during spring migration. For Ecol Manag 280:176–86.