Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

Nature Communications

Volumn 6, Issue , 2015, Pages

  Yoon, Jin Ho ^a   Wang, S Y Simon ^b   Gillies, Robert R ^b   Kravitz, Ben ^a   Hipps, Lawrence ^b   Rasch, Philip J ^a  

^a PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^b UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DROUGHT; ECONOMIC IMPACT; EL NINO; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXTREME EVENT; FLOODING; GLOBAL WARMING; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE; LA NINA; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; WATER STRESS; WILDFIRE;

COLD STRESS; DROUGHT; EL NINO; FLOODING; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; MODEL; PRECURSOR; UNITED STATES; WATER CYCLE;

CALIFORNIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84944899516     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20411723     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms9657     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Howitt, R., Medellin-Azuara, J., MacEwan, D., Lund, J. & Summer, D. Economic Impacts of 2014 Drought on California Agriculture (University of California, 2014).
2. Dai, A. G. Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change 2, 45-65 (2011).
3. Dai, A. G. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 52-58 (2013).
4. Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R. & Swetnam, T. W. Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science 313, 940-943 (2006).
5. Wang, S. Y., Hipps, L., Gillies, R. R. & Yoon, J. H. Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013-2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3220-3226 (2014).
6. Neelin, J. D., Langenbrunner, B., Meyerson, J. E., Hall, A. & Berg, N. California winter precipitation change under global warming in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 ensemble. J. Clim. 26, 6238-6256 (2013).
7. Maurer, E. P. Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California, under two emissions scenarios. Clim. Chang. 82, 309-325 (2007).
8. Pierce, D. W. et al. Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling. Clim. Dynam. 40, 839-856 (2013).
9. Lau, W. K. M., Wu, H. T. & Kim, K. M. A canonical response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 3163-3169 (2013).
10. Wang, H. & Schubert, S. Causes of the extreme dry conditions over California during early 2013. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95, 5 (2014).
11. Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon. Weather Rev. 114, 2352-2362 (1986).
12. Mo, K. C. & Higgins, R. W. Tropical influences on California precipitation. J. Clim. 11, 412-430 (1998).
13. Schonher, T. & Nicholson, S. The relationship between California rainfall and ENSO events. J. Clim. 2, 1258-1269 (1989).
14. Swain, D. L. et al. The extraordinary California drought of 2013/2014: Character, context, and the role of climate change. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 95, 5 (2014).
15. Alexander, M. A., Vimont, D. J., Chang, P. & Scott, J. D. The impact of extratropical atmospheric variability on ENSO: testing the seasonal footprinting mechanism using coupled model experiments. J. Clim. 23, 2885-2901 (2010).
16. Wang, S.-Y., Hipps, L., Gillies, R. R. & Yoon, J.-H. Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013 2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3220-3226, doi:10. 1002/2014GL059748 (2014).
17. Palmer, T. Record-breaking winters and global climate change. Science 344, 803-804 (2014).
18. Allen, R. J., Norris, J. R. & Kovilakam, M. Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width. Nat. Geosci. 7, 270-274 (2014).
19. Mo, K. C. Interdecadal Modulation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation and temperature over the United States. J. Clim. 23, 3639-3656 (2010).
20. Wang, S.-Y. S., Huang, W.-R. & Yoon, J.-H. The North American winter 'dipole' and extremes activity: a CMIP5 assessment. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 16, 338-345 (2015).
21. Collins, M. et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Nino. Nat. Geosci. 3, 391-397 (2010).
22. Wittenberg, A. T. Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L12702 (2009).
23. Stevenson, S. et al. Will there be a significant change to El Niño in the twentyfirst century? J. Clim. 25, 2129-2145 (2012).
24. Cai, W. et al. Increased frequency of extreme La Nina events under greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 132-137 (2015).
25. Cai, W. J. et al. Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming. Nat. Clim. Chang. 4, 111-116 (2014).
26. Schneider, E. K., Fennessy, M. J. & Kinter, J. L. A statistical-dynamical estimate of winter ENSO teleconnections in a future climate. J. Clim. 22, 6624-6638 (2009).
27. Gleick, P. H. & Palaniappan, M. Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 11155-11162 (2010).
28. Barnston, A. G., Tippett, M. K., L'Heureux, M. L., Li, S. & DeWitt, D. G. Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002-11: Is Our Capability Increasing? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 93, 631-651 (2012).
29. Kay, J. E. et al. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: a community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 96, 1333-1349 (2014).
30. Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J. & Meehl, G. A. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 93, 485-498 (2012).
31. Wang, S.-Y., L'Heureux, M. & Yoon, J.-H. Are greenhouse gases changing ENSO precursors in the Western North Pacific? J. Clim. 26, 6309-6322 (2013).
32. Adler, R. F. et al. The version-2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeorol. 4, 1147-1167 (2003).
33. Guttman, N. B. Comparing the Palmer Drought Index and the standardized precipitation index. J. Am. Water Res. Assoc. 34, 113-121 (1998).
34. Yoon, J. H., Mo, K. & Wood, E. F. Dynamic-model-based seasonal prediction of meteorological drought over the contiguous United States. J. Hydrometeorol. 13, 463-482 (2012).
35. Compo, G. P. et al. The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 1-28 (2011).
36. Austin, P. C. & Tu, J. V. Bootstrap methods for developing predictive models. Am. Stat. 58, 131-137 (2004).