Impact of climate change on vulnerability of forests and ecosystem service supply in Western Rhodopes Mountains

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 17, Issue 1, 2017, Pages 79-91

  Zlatanov, Tzvetan ^a   Elkin, Che ^b   Irauschek, Florian ^c   Lexer, Manfred Josef ^c  

^a FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Bulgaria)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^c UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND LIFE SCIENCES   (Austria)

Author keywords

Climate change; Ecosystem modelling; Forest ecosystem services; Sustainable forest management

Indexed keywords

EID: 84944629577     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-015-0869-z     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Advanced Multifunctional Forest Management in European Mountain Ranges (ARANGE). Project within the European commission’s 7th framework program, grant agreement number 289437. http://www.arange-project.eu/. Accessed 28 June 2014
2. Aleksandrov A, Kostov G, Zlatanov T (2009) COST action FP0703—ECHOES. Expected climate change and options for European silviculture, country report Bulgaria, 14pp. http://www.gip-ecofor.org/echoes. Accessed 28 June 2014
3. Angelstam P, Bütler R, Lazdinis M, Mikusinski G, Roberge J (2003) Habitat thresholds for focal species at multiple scales and forest biodiversity conservation—dead wood as an example. Ann Zool Fennici 40:473–482
4. Bentz B, Régnière J, Fettig C, Hansen E, Hicke J, Hayes J, Kelsey Y, Negrón J, Seybold S (2010) Climate change and bark beetles of the Western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. Bioscience 60:602–613
5. Booth R, Grime J (2003) Effects of genetic impoverishment on plant community diversity. J Ecol 91:721–730
6. Bugmann H (2001) A review of forest gap models. Clim Change 51:259–305
7. Carrer M, Nola P, Motta R, Urbinati C (2010) Contrasting tree-ring growth to climate responses of Abies alba toward the southern limit of its distribution area. Oikos 119:1515–1525. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18293.x
8. Colombaroli D, Henne PD, Kaltenrieder P, Gobet E, Tinner W (2010) Species responses to fire, climate and human impact at tree line in the Alps as evidenced by palaeo-environmental records and a dynamic simulation model. J Ecol 98:1346–1357
9. Council of the European Union (1992) Document 31992L0043: Council Directive 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora. Official J L 206:7–50
10. Delkov N (1988) Dendrology. Sofia, Zemizdat
11. Diaci J, Firm D (2011) Long-term dynamics of a mixed conifer stand in Slovenia managed with a farmer selection system. For Ecol Manag 262:931–939. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.05.024
12. EEA (2010) Eurpoe’s ecological backbone: recognising the true value of our mountains. EEA Report, Copenhagen
13. Elkin C, Gutiérrez A, Leuzinger S, Manusch C, Temperli C, Rasche L, Bugmann H (2013) A 2 C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps. Glob Change Biol 19:1827–1840. doi:10.1111/gcb.12156
14. Frehner M, Waser B, Schwitter R (2005) Sustainability and controlling in protection forests. Guidelines for tending forests with protective function. Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL), Bern
15. Galabov Z (ed) (1973) Atlas of the People’s Republic of Bulgaria. Sofia, Main Bureau of Geodesy and Cartography
16. GFSAF (2000–2014) Report forms 5 GF (Forest Fund). Bulgarian State Forest Agency
17. Gonzalez P, Neilson R, Lenihan J, Drapek R (2010) Global patterns in the vulnerability of ecosystems to vegetation shifts due to climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 19:755–768. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00558.x
18. Guénette J, Villard M (2005) Thresholds in forest bird response to habitat alteration as quantitative targets for conservation. Conserv Biol 19(4):1168–1180
19. Hanewinkel M, Cullmann D, Schelhaas M-J, Nabuurs G-J, Zimmermann N (2012) Climate change may cause severe loss in the economic value of European forest land. Nat Clim Change 3:203–207. doi:10.1038/nclimate1687
20. Hartl-Meier C, Zang C, Dittmar C, Esper J, Göttlein A, Rothe A (2014) Vulnerability of Norway spruce to climate change in mountain forests of the European Alps. Clim Res 60:119–132. doi:10.3354/cr01226
21. Haylock M, Hofstra N, Klein Tank A, Klok E, Jones P, New M (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 113:D20119. doi:10.1029/2008JD10201
22. Henne PD, Elkin CM, Reineking B, Bugmann H, Tinner W (2011) Did soil development limit spruce (Picea abies) expansion in the Central Alps during the Holocene? Testing a palaeobotanical hypothesis with a dynamic landscape model. J Biogeogr 38:933–949
23. Hewitt C, Griggs D (2004) Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. EOS Trans AGU 85(52):566. doi:10.1029/2004EO520005
24. Huntley B (1991) How plants respond to climate change—migration rates, individualism and the consequences for plant communities. Ann Bot 67:15–22
25. Iankov P (ed.) (2007) Atlas of breeding birds in Bulgaria. BSPB conservation series, Book 10, Sofia
26. IPCC (2006) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/vol4.html. Accessed 20 Feb 2015
27. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva
28. Jolly M, Dobbertin M, Zimmermann N, Reichstein M (2005) Divergent vegetation growth responses to the 2003 heat wave in the Swiss Alps. Geophys Res Let 32:L18409
29. Landsberg J, Waring R (1997) A generalised model of forest productivity using simplified concepts of radiation-use efficiency, carbon balance and partitioning. For Ecol Manag 95:209–228
30. Lexer MJ, Brooks R (2005) Decision support for multiple purpose forestry. For Ecol Manag 207:1–3. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2004.11.002
31. Lexer MJ, Hönninger K (2001) A modified 3D-patch model for spatially explicit simulation of vegetation composition in heterogeneous landscapes. For Ecol Manag 144:43–65. doi:10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00386-8
32. Marinov I, Velizarova E, Nyagolov I et al (2012) Climate change and their effect on the forest ecosystems and water resources in the Struma basin. BON editorial house, Blagoevgrad
33. MEA (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends. Island Press, Washington
34. Nikolov B, Shurlinkov P, Hristova-Nikolova I (2011) Bird density and species composition in Sweet Chestnut (Castanea sativa) dominated forests in the Bulgarian part of Belasitsa Mountain. In: State and prospects of the Castanea sativa population in Belasitsa Mountain: climate change adaptation; maintenance of biodiversity and sustainable ecosystem management (Zlatanov T, I Velichkov, B Nikolov eds). Project BG 0031 EEA report. http://www.castbelbg.com/. Accessed 21 February 2015
35. Nyland R (1996) Silviculture concepts and applications. Mc Graw-Hill, New York
36. Paulsen J, Weber M, Körner C (2000) Tree growth near treeline: abrupt or gradual reduction with altitude? Arct Antarct Alp Res 32:14–20
37. Peguero-Pina J, Camarero J, Abadía A, Martín E, González-Cascón R, Morales F, Gil-Pelegrín E (2007) Physiological performance of silver-fir (Abies alba Mill.) populations under contrasting climates near the south-western distribution limit of the species. Flora 202(3):226–236. doi:10.1016/j.flora.2006.06.004
38. Peñuelas J, Boada M (2003) A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny Mountains (NE Spain). Glob Change Biol 9:131–140. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00566.x
39. Popov V (2011) Animal (spiders, beetles, butterflies and birds) assemblage patterns and environmental gradients in sweet chestnut dominated forests in the Bulgarian part of Belasitsa Mountain. In: State and prospects of the Castanea sativa population in Belasitsa Mountain: climate change adaptation; maintenance of biodiversity and sustainable ecosystem management (Zlatanov T, I Velichkov, B Nikolov eds). Project BG 0031 EEA report. http://www.castbelbg.com/. Accessed 25 February 2015
40. Pretzsch H (2009) Forest dynamics, growth and yield: from measurement to model. Springer, Berlin
41. Ranius T, Fahrig L (2006) Targets for maintenance of dead wood for biodiversity conservation based on extinction thresholds. Scand J For Res 21:201–208. doi:10.1080/02827580600688269
42. Rauscher H, Reynolds K, Vacik H (2005) Decision support systems for forest management. Comput Electron Agric 49(1):1–5. doi:10.1016/j.compag.2005.02.001
43. Rolland C, Petitcolas V, Michalet R (1998) Changes in radial tree growth for Picea abies, Larix decidua, Pinus cembra and Pinus uncinata near the alpine timberline since 1750. Trees Struct Funct 13:40–53. doi:10.1007/PL00009736
44. Savva Y, Oleksyn J, Reich P, Tjoelker M, Vaganov E, Modrzynski J (2006) Interannual growth response of Norway spruce to climate along an altitudinal gradient in the Tatra Mountains, Poland. Trees 20:735–746. doi:10.1007/s00468-006-0088-9
45. Sayer J, Maginnis S (2013) Forests in landscapes: ecosystem approaches to sustainability. Taylor & Francis, New York
46. Schumacher S, Bugmann H (2006) The relative importance of climatic effects, wildfires and management for future forest landscape dynamics in the Swiss Alps. Glob Change Biol 12:1435–1450
47. Schumacher S, Bugmann H, Mladenoff DJ (2004) Improving the formulation of tree growth and succession in a spatially explicit landscape model. Ecol Model 180:175–194
48. Schumacher S, Reineking B, Sibold J, Bugmann H (2006) Modeling the impact of climate and vegetation on fire regimes in mountain landscapes. Landsc Ecol 21:539–554
49. Schütz J-P (1999) Close-to-nature silviculture: is this concept compatible with species diversity? Forestry 72(4):359–366
50. Seidl R, Lexer MJ, Jäger D, Hönninger K (2005) Evaluating the accuracy and generality of a hybrid patch model. Tree Physiol 25(7):939–951
51. Seidl R, Rammer W, Lexer MJ (2011) Climate change vulnerability of sustainable forest management in the Eastern Alps. Clim Change 106:225–254. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9899-1
52. Seidl R, Eastaugh C, Kramer K, Maroschek M, Reyer C, Socha J, Vacchiano G, Zlatanov T, Hasenauer H (2013) Scaling issues in forest ecosystem management and how to address them with models. Eur J For Res 132:653–666. doi:10.1007/s10342-013-0725-y
53. SLFEMP (2007) Shiroka Laka. Forest Enterprise Management Plan, Agrolesproekt
54. Temperli C, Bugmann H, Elkin C (2012) Adaptive management for competing forest goods and services under climate change. Ecol Appl 22:2065–2077
55. Thornton P, Running S (1999) An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Agr For Meteorol 93:211–228
56. UNFCCC (1997) Kyoto protocol to the united nations framework convention on climate change. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf. Accessed 25 Feb 2015
57. Velichkov V, Krijan-Velichkova E, Cenov C (2008) Possibilities for valuable timber production in the Rodopes. Manag Sustain Dev 1(19):68–77
58. Velichkov I, G Popov, G Hinkov, T Zlatanov (2009) Resources, issues, and management perspectives of beech forests in Rodopi mountains. In: G Rafailov (ed.), National conference on beech forests management in Bulgaria, Barziya, 16–17 June 2009, “RUTA–HB”, pp 87–100
59. Von Lüpke B, Spellmann H (1999) Aspects of stability, growth and natural regeneration in mixed Norway spruce-beech stands as a basis of silvicultural decisions. In: Management of mixed-species forest: silviculture and economics (eds. Olsthoorn A, Bartelink H, Gardiner J). IBN Scientific Contributions 15, Institute of Forestry and Nature Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands, pp 245–267
60. Woltjer M et al (2008) Coupling a 3D patch model and a rockfall module to assess rockfall protection in mountain forests. J Environ Manag 87:373–388
61. Zahariev B, Duhovnikov Y, Iliev A et al (1977) The forestation in Bulgaria. Zemizdat, Sofia
62. Zang C, Rothe A, Weis W, Pretzsch H (2011) Zur Baumarten-eignung bei Klimawandel: ableitung der Trockenstress-Anfälligkeit wichtiger Waldbaumarten aus Jahrring-breiten. Allg For J Ztg 182:98–112
63. Zlatanov T, Velichkov I, Lexer M, Dubravac T (2010) Regeneration dynamics in aging black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) plantations on the south slopes of the middle balkan range in Bulgaria. New For 40:289–303. doi:10.1007/s11056-010-9200-5