Modeling insect disturbance across forested landscapes: Insights from the spruce budworm

Simulation Modeling of Forest Landscape Disturbances

Volumn , Issue , 2015, Pages 93-134

  Sturtevant, Brian R ^a   Cooke, Barry J ^b   Kneeshaw, Daniel D ^c   Mac Lean, David A ^d  

^a USDA FOREST SERVICE   (United States)

^b LAURENTIAN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^c UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

^d UNIVERSITY OF NEW BRUNSWICK   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84944241792     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-19809-5_5     Document Type: Chapter

References (185)

1. Alfaro RI, Berg J, Axelson J (2014) Periodicity of western spruce budworm in southern British Columbia, Canada. For Ecol Manage 315:72-79
2. Allee WC (1931) Animal aggregations, a study in general sociology. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
3. Anderson DP, Sturtevant BR (2011) Pattern analysis of eastern spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana dispersal. Ecography 34:488-497
4. Addicott JF, Aho JM, Antolin MF, Padilla DK, Richardson JS, Soluk DA (1987) Ecological neighborhoods: scaling environmental patterns. Oikos 49:340-346
5. Andrewartha HG, Birch LC (1954) The distribution and abundance of animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
6. Archambault L, Gagnon RR, Pelletier G, Chabot M, Belanger L (1990) Influence du drainage et de la texture du depot sur la vulnerabilite du Sapin baumier et de l’Epinette blanche aux attaques de la Tordeuse des bourgeons de l’epinette. Can J For Res 20:750-756
7. Baskerville GL (1975) Spruce budworm: super silviculturist. For Chron 51:138-140
8. Baskerville, GL (1976) Report of the task force for evaluation of budworm control alternatives. Prepared for New Brunswick Cabinet Committee on Economic Development. New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources, Fredericton, NB
9. Baskerville GL (1982) The spruce fir wood supply in New Brunswick. New Brunswick Department of Natural Resources, Forest Management Branch, Fredericton, NB. Report No. 0-88838-408-4
10. Baskerville G, Kleinschmidt S (1981) A dynamic model of growth in defoliated fir stands. Can J For Res 11:206-214
11. Batzer HO, Popp MP (1985) Forest succession following spruce budworm outbreak in Minnesota. For Chron 61:75-80
12. Bellier E, Monestiez, P Durbec JP, Candau JN (2007) Identifying spatial relationships at multiple scales: principal coordinates of neighbour matrices (PCNM) and geostatistical approaches. Ecography 30:385-399
13. Belle-Isle J, Kneeshaw D (2007) A stand and landscape comparison of the effects of a spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreak to the combined effects of harvesting and thinning on forest structure. For Ecol Manage 246:163-174
14. Bentz BJ, Regniere J, Fettig CJ et al (2010) Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. Bioscience 60:602-613
15. Bergeron Y, Leduc A, Morin H, Joyal C (1995) Balsam fir mortality following the last spruce budworm outbreak in northwestern Quebec. Can J For Res 25:1375-1384
16. Berryman AA (1986) Forest insects. Plenum Press, Principles and practice of population management
17. Berryman AA, Stenseth NC, Wollkind DJ (1984) Metastability of forest ecosystems infested by bark beetles. Res Popul Ecol 26:13-29
18. Blackman MW (1919) Report on the spruce budworm. Maine Forestry Department
19. Blais JR (1954) The recurrence of spruce budworm infestations in the past century in the Lac Seul area of northwestern Ontario. Ecology 35:62-71
20. Blais JR (1961) Spruce budworm outbreaks in the lower St. Lawrence and Gaspe regions. For Chron 37:192-202
21. Blais JR (1964) History of spruce budworm outbreaks in the past two centuries in southeastern Quebec and northern Maine. Can For Entomol Pathol Branch Bi-mon Prog Rep 20:1-2
22. Blais JR (1965) Spruce budworm outbreaks in the past three centuries in the Laurentide Park, Quebec. For Sci 11:130-138
23. Blais JR (1968) Regional variation in susceptibility of eastern North American forests to budworm attack based on history of outbreaks. For Chron 44:17-23
24. Blais JR (1981) Mortality of balsam fir and white spruce following a spruce budworm outbreak in the Ottawa River watershed in Quebec. Can J For Res 11:620-629
25. Bj0rnstad ON, Ims RA, Lambin X (1999) Spatial population dynamics: analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony. Trends Ecol Evol 14:427-432
26. Bj0rnstad ON, Liebhold AM, Johnson DM (2008) Transient synchronization following invasion: revisiting Moran’s model and a case study. Popul Ecol 50:379-389
27. Bj0rnstad ON, Peltonen M, Liebhold AM, Baltensweiler W (2002) Waves of larch budmoth outbreaks in the European Alps. Science 298:1020-1023
28. Bouchard M, Kneeshaw D, Bergeron Y (2006) Forest dynamics after successive spruce budworm outbreaks in mixedwood forests. Ecology 87:2319-2329
29. Boulanger Y, Arseneault D (2004) Spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern Quebec over the last 450 years. Can J For Res 34:1035-1043
30. Boulanger Y, Arseneault D, Morin H, Jardon Y, Bertrand P, Dagneau C (2012) Dendrochronological reconstruction of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks in southern Quebec for the last 400 years. Can J For Res 42:1264-1276
31. Burleigh JS, Alfaro RI, Borden JH, Taylor S (2002) Historical and spatial characteristics of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) outbreaks in northeastern British Columbia. For Ecol Manage 168:301-309
32. Burns RM, Honkala BH (1990) Silvics of North America: 1. Conifers. USDA Forest Service, Agriculture Handbook 654 Campbell EM, MacLean DA
33. Bergeron Y (2008) The severity of budworm-caused growth reductions in balsam fir/spruce stands varies with the hardwood content of surrounding forest landscapes. For Sci 54:195-205
34. Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (2013) National Forestry Database Program. http://nfdp.cc fm.org. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, Ontario
35. Canada Candau J-N, Fleming RA (2005) Landscape-scale spatial distribution of spruce budworm defoliation in relation to bioclimatic conditions. Can J For Res 35:2218-2232
36. Candau J-N, Fleming RA (2011) Forecasting the response of spruce budworm defoliation to climate change in Ontario. Can J For Res 41:1948-1960
37. Cappuccino N, Lavertu D, Bergeron Y, Regniere J (1998) Spruce budworm impact, abundance and parasitism rate in a patchy landscape. Oecologia 114:236-242
38. Chang W-Y, Lantz VA, Hennigar CR, MacLean DA (2012a) Economic impacts of forest pests: a case study of spruce budworm outbreaks and control in New Brunswick, Canada. Can J For Res 42:490-505
39. Chang W-Y, Lantz VA, Hennigar CR, MacLean DA (2012b) Benefit-cost analysis of spruce bud- worm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) control: incorporating market and non-market values. J Env Manage 93:104-112
40. Chen HW, Hu YM, Chang Y, Bu RC, Li YH, Liu M (2011) Simulating impact of larch caterpillar (Dendrolimus superans) on fire regime and forest landscape in Da Hinggan Mountains, Northeast China. Chinese Geog Sci 21:575-586
41. Clark WC, Jones DD, Holling CS (1979) Lessons for ecological policy design: a case study of ecosystem management. Ecol Model 7:1-53
42. Cobbold CA, Lewis MA, Lutscher F, Roland J (2005) How parasitism affects critical patch- size in a host-parasitoid model: application to the forest tent caterpillar. Theor Popul Biol 67:109-125
43. Cooke BJ, MacQuarrie CJK, Lorenzetti F (2012) The dynamics of forest tent caterpillar outbreaks across east-central Canada. Ecography 35:422-435
44. Cooke BJ, Nealis VG, Regniere J (2007) Insect defoliators as periodic disturbances in northern forest ecosystems.In: Johnson EA, Miyanishi K (eds) Plant disturbance ecology: the process and the response. Academic Press, London, pp 487-526
45. Cooke BJ, Roland J (2000) Spatial analysis of large scale patterns of forest tent caterpillar outbreaks. Ecoscience 7:410-422
46. Cooke BJ, Lorenzetti F, Roland J (2009) On the duration and distribution of forest tent caterpillar outbreaks in eastcentral Canada. J Entomol Soc Ontario 140:3-18
47. Cuff W, Baskerville GL (1983) Ecological modelling and management of spruce budworm infested fir-spruce forests of New Brunswick, Canada. In: Lauenroth WK, Skogerboe GV, Flug M (eds) Analysis of ecological systems: state-of-the-art in ecological modelling: proceedings of a symposium. Developments in environmental modelling, Fort Collins, CO, vol 5, 24-28 May 1982. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, New York, pp 93-98
48. Daniel CJ, Myers JH (1995) Climate and outbreaks of the forest tent caterpillar. Ecography 18:353-362
49. D’Aoust V, Kneeshaw DD, Bergeron Y (2004) Characterisation of changes in canopy structure before and after a spruce budworm outbreak. Can J For Res 34:339-352
50. Dorais L, Kettela EG (eds) (1982) A review of entomological survey and assessment techniques used in regional spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), surveys and in the assessment of operational spray programs. Report, Committee for Standardization of Survey and Assessment Techniques. Eastern Spruce Budworm Council, Quebec Department of Energy and Resources, Quebec Dukes JS, Pontius J, Orwig
51. D et al (2009) Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: what can we predict? Can J For Res 39:231-248
52. Dupont A, Belanger L, Bousquet J (1991) Relationships between balsam fir vulnerability to spruce budworm and ecological site conditions of fir stands in central Quebec. Can J For Res 21:1752-1759
53. Erdle TA (1989) Concept and practice of integrated harvest and protection design in the management of eastern spruce fir forests. PhD thesis, University of New Brunswick
54. Erdle TA, MacLean DA (1999) Stand growth model calibration for use in forest pest impact assessment. For Chron 75:141-152
55. Eveleigh ES, McCann KS, McCarthy PC et al (2007) Fluctuations in density of an outbreak species drive diversity cascades in food webs. Proc Nat Acad Sci 104:16976-16981
56. Fettes JJ (1950) Investigations of sampling techniques for population studies of the spruce bud- worm on balsam fir in Ontario. Canada Department of Agriculture, Forest Insect Laboratory. Sault Ste. Marie, ON. Annu Tech Rep 4:163-401
57. Fleming RA (1996) A mechanistic perspective of possible influences of climate change on defoliating insects in North America’s boreal forests. Silva Fenn 30:281-294
58. Fleming RA, Barclay HJ, Candau JN (2002) Scaling-up an autoregressive time-series model (of spruce budworm population dynamics) changes its qualitative behavior. Ecol Model 149:127-142
59. Fleming RA, Candau JN (1998) Influences of climatic change on some ecological processes of an insect outbreak system in Canada’s boreal forests and the implications for biodiversity. Environ Monitor Assess 49:235-249
60. Fleming RA, Lyons DB, Candau J-N (1999) Spatial transmutation and its consequences in spatially upscaling models of spruce budworm population dynamics. Can J Rem Sens 25:388-402
61. Fleming RA, Shoemaker CA (1992) Evaluating models for spruce budworm-forest management: Comparing output with regional field data. Ecol Appl 2:460-477
62. Fleming RA, Volney WJA (1995) Effects of climate change on insect defoliator population processes in Canada’s boreal forest: some plausible scenarios. Water Soil Air Poll 82:445-454
63. Fisher RA (1983) Two decades of budworm simulacra: a retrospective view of comprehensive simulation models. In: Lauenroth WK, Skogerboe GV, Flug M (eds) Analysis of ecological systems: state-of-the-art in ecological modelling. Developments in Environmental Modelling, vol 5. Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, New York
64. Foster JR (2011) Forest insect defoliation patterns and carbon dynamics: Linking remote sensing with simulation models. Dissertation, University of Wisconsin-Madison
65. Gage HS, Isard AS, G-Colunga M (1999) Ecological scaling of aerobiological dispersal processes. Agr Forest Meteor 97:249-261
66. Greenbank DO (1963) Host species and the spruce budworm. Mem Entomol Soc Can 31:219-223
67. Greenbank DO, Schaefer GW, Rainey RC (1980) Spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) moth flight and dispersal: new understanding from canopy observations, radar, and aircraft. Mem Entomol Soc Can 110:1-49
68. Gray DR (2008) The relationship between climate and outbreak characteristics of the spruce budworm in eastern Canada. Clim Change 87:361-383
69. Gray DR (2013) The influence of forest composition and climate on outbreak characteristics of the spruce budworm in eastern Canada. Can J For Res 43:1181-1195
70. Gray DR, MacKinnon WE (2006) Outbreak patterns of the spruce budworm and their impacts in Canada. For Chron 82:550-561
71. Gray DR, MacKinnon WE (2007) Historical spruce budworm defoliation records adjusted for insecticide protection in New Brunswick, 1965-1992. J Acad Entomol Soc 3:1-6
72. Gunderson LH, Holling CS (2002) Panarchy: Understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island Press, Washington
73. Gustafson EJ, Shvidenko AZ, Sturtevant BR, Scheller RM (2010) Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecol Appl 20:700-715
74. Hall TH (1981) Forest management decision-making; art or science? For Chron 57:233-238
75. Han E-N, Bauce E (1997) Effects of early temperature exposure on diapause development of spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Environ Entomol 26:307-310
76. Han E-N, Bauce E (2000) Dormancy in the life cycle of the spruce budworm: physiological mechanisms and ecological implications. Rec Res Develop Entomol 3:43-64
77. Hardy YJ, Lafond A, Hamel L (1983) The epidemiology of the current spruce budworm outbreak in Quebec. For Sci 29:715-725
78. Hassell DC, Allwright DJ, Fowler AC (1999) A mathematical analysis of Jones’s site model for spruce budworm infestations. J Math Biol 38:377-421
79. Haynes KJ, Liebhold AM, Johnson DM (2009) Spatial analysis of harmonic oscillation of gypsy moth outbreak intensity. Oecologia 159:249-256
80. Hennigar CR, MacLean DA, Porter KB, Quiring DT (2007) Optimized harvest planning under alternative foliage-protection scenarios to reduce volume losses to spruce budworm. Can J For Res 37:1755-1769
81. Hix DM, Barnes BV, Lynch AM, Witter JA (1987) Relationships between spruce budworm damage and site factors in spruce-fir dominated ecosystems of western Upper Michigan. For Ecol Manage 21:129-140
82. Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Ann Rev Ecol System 4:1-23
83. Holling CS (1986) The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems; local surprise and global change. In: Clark WC, Munn RE (eds) Sustainable development of the biosphere. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
84. Holling CS (1992) Cross-scale morphology, geometry, and dynamics of ecosystems. Ecol Monogr 62:447-502
85. Hughes J (2012) Patterns and processes in forest insect population dynamics. Dissertation, University of Toronto
86. Iqbal J, Hennigar CR, MacLean DA (2012) Modeling insecticide protection versus forest management approaches to reducing balsam fir sawfly and hemlock looper damage. For Ecol Manage 265:150-160
87. James PMA, Fortin M-J, Sturtevant BR, Fall A, Kneeshaw D (2011) Modelling spatial interactions among fire, spruce budworm, and logging in the boreal forest. Ecosystems 14:60-75
88. Jardon Y, Morin H, Dutilleul P (2003) Periodicity and synchronism of spruce budworm outbreaks in Quebec. Can J For Res 33:1947-1961
89. Jepsen JU, Hagen SB, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG (2008) Climate change and outbreaks of the geom- etrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata in subarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion. J Anim Ecol 77:257-264
90. Johnson DM, Bj0rnstad ON, Liebhold AM (2006) Landscape mosaic induces traveling waves of insect outbreaks. Oecologia 148:51-60
91. Johnson DM, Liebhold AM, Bj0rnstad ON, McManus ML (2005) Circumpolar variation in periodicity and synchrony among gypsy moth populations. J Anim Ecol 74:882-892
92. Jones DD (1974) Biology of the budworm model. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal 12:1-42
93. Jones DD (1977) The budworm site model. In: Proceedings of a conference on pest management, 25-29 Oct 1976. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal CP-77-6, pp 91-155
94. Keane RE, Holsinger LM, Parsons RA, Gray K (2008) Climate change effects on historical range and variability of two large landscapes in western Montana, USA. For Ecol Manage 254:375-389
95. Kemp WP, Simmons GA (1978) The influence of stand factors on parasitism of spruce budworm eggs by Trichogramma minutum. Environ Entomol 7:685-688
96. Kneeshaw DD, Lauzon E, de Romer A et al (2008) Appliquer des connaissances sur les regimes de perturbations naturelles pour developper une foresterie qui s’inspire de la nature dans le sud de la peninsule Gaspesienne. In: Gauthier S et al (eds) Amenagement forestier ecosys- temique en foret. University of Quebec Press, Quebec
97. Kneeshaw DD, Bergeron Y (1999) Spatial and temporal patterns of seedling and sapling recruitment within canopy gaps caused by spruce budworm. Ecoscience 6:214-222
98. Kneeshaw DD, Bergeron Y (1998) Canopy gap characteristics and tree replacement in the southeastern boreal forest. Ecology 79:783-794
99. Kneeshaw DD, Kobe RK, Coates KD, Messier C (2006) Sapling size influences shade tolerance ranking among southern boreal tree species. J Ecol 94:471-480
100. Kneeshaw DD, Prevost M (2007) Natural canopy gap disturbances and their role in maintaining mixed species forests of central Quebec. Can J For Res 37:1534-1544
101. Kretchun AM, Scheller RM, Lucash MS, Clark KL, Hom J, Van Tuyl S (2014) The effects of multiple disturbances on carbon sequestration in the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens under different climate scenarios. PLoS ONE 9:e102531
102. Lawrence RK, Mattson WJ, Haack RA (1997) White spruce and the spruce budworm: Defining the phenological window of susceptibility. Can Entomol 129:291-318
103. Logan JA (1994) In defense of big ugly models. Am Entomol 40:202-207
104. Ludwig D, Jones DD, Holling CS (1978) Qualitative analysis of insect outbreak systems: the spruce budworm and the forest. J Anim Ecol 47:315-332
105. Lynch AM, Witter JA (1985) Relationships between balsam fir mortality caused by the spruce budworm and stand, site, and soils variables in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Can J For Res 15:141-147
106. MacKinnon WE, MacLean DA (2003) The influence of forest and stand conditions on spruce budworm defoliation in New Brunswick, Canada. For Sci 49:657-667
107. MacLean DA (1980) Vulnerability of fir-spruce stands during uncontrolled spruce budworm outbreaks: a review and discussion. For Chron 56:213-221
108. MacLean DA (1984) Effects of spruce budworm outbreaks on the productivity and stability of balsam fir forests. For Chron 60:273-279
109. MacLean DA (1996) The role of a stand dynamics model in the spruce budworm decision support system. Can J For Res 26:1731-1741
110. MacLean DA, Lidstone RG (1982) Defoliation by spruce budworm: estimation by ocular and shoot count methods and variability among branches, trees, and stands. Can J For Res 12:582-594
111. MacLean DA, MacKinnon WE (1996) The accuracy of aerial sketch mapping of spruce bud- worm defoliation in New Brunswick. Can J For Res 26:2099-2108
112. MacLean DA, MacKinnon WE (1997) Effects of stand and site characteristics on susceptibility and vulnerability of balsam fir and spruce to spruce budworm in New Brunswick. Can J For Res 27:1859-1871
113. MacLean DA, MacKinnon WE, Porter KB, Beaton KP, Cormier G, Morehouse S (2000) Use of forest inventory and monitoring data in the spruce budworm decision support system. Comput Electron Agric 28:101-118
114. MacLean DA, Beaton KP, Porter KB, MacKinnon WE, Budd M (2002) Potential wood supply losses to spruce budworm in New Brunswick estimated using the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System. For Chron 78:739-750
115. MacLean DA, Erdle TA, Porter KB et al (2001) The Spruce Budworm Decision Support System: forest protection planning to sustain long-term wood supply. Can J For Res 31:1742-1757
116. Maltais J, Regniere J, Cloutier C, Hebert C, Perry DF (1989) Seasonal biology of Meteorus tra- chynotus Vier. (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and of its overwintering host Choristoneura rosaceana (Harr.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Can Entomol 121:745-756
117. Mason RR (1996) Dynamic behavior of Douglas-fir tussock moth populations in the Pacific Northwest. For Sci 42:182-191
118. McLeod IM, Lucarotti CJ, Hennigar CR et al (2012) Advances in aerial application technologies and decision support for integrated pest management. In: Soloneski S Larramendy ML (eds) Integrated Pest management and pest control. InTech Open Access Publisher, Rijeka
119. Miller A, Rusnock P (1993) The rise and fall of the silvicultural hypothesis in spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) management in eastern Canada. For Ecol Manage 61:171-189
120. Moran PAP (1953) The statistical analysis of the Canadian lynx cycle II. Synchronization and meteorology. Aust J Zool 1:291-298
121. Morin H, Laprise D, Simard A-A, Amouch S (2009) Spruce budworm outbreak regimes in eastern North America. In: Gauthier S, Vaillancourt M-A, Leduc A, et al (eds) Ecosystem management in the boreal forest. Presses de l’Universite du Quebec, Quebec
122. Morris RF, Cheshire WF, Miller CA, Mott DG (1958) The numerical response of avian and mammalian predators during a gradation of the spruce budworm. Ecology 34:487-494
123. Morris RF (ed) (1963a) The dynamics of epidemic spruce budworm populations. Mem Entomol Soc Can 31
124. Morris RF (1963b) The development of predictive equations for the spruce budworm based on key-factor analysis. In: Morris RF (ed) The dynamics of epidemic spruce budworm populations. Mem Entomol Soc Can 31
125. Myers JH (1998) Synchrony in outbreaks of forest Lepidoptera: a possible example of the Moran effect. Ecology 79:1111-1117
126. Myers JH, Cory C (2013) Population cycles in forest Lepidoptera revisited. Ann Rev Ecol Evol Syst 44:565-592
127. Nealis VG, Regniere J (2004a) Insect-host relationships influencing disturbance by the spruce budworm in a boreal mixedwood forest. Can J For Res 34:1870-1882
128. Nealis VG, Regniere J (2004b) Fecundity and recruitment of eggs during outbreaks of the spruce budworm. Can Entomol 136:591-604
129. Nicholson AJ, Bailey VA (1935) The balance of animal populations—Part I. Proc Zool Soc London 105:551-598
130. Nisbet RM, Gurney WSC (1982) Modelling fluctuating populations. Wiley, New York
131. Osawa A (1989) Causality in mortality patterns of spruce trees during a spruce budworm outbreak. Can J For Res 19:632-638
132. Ostaff DP, MacLean DA (1995) Patterns of balsam fir foliar production and growth in relation to defoliation by spruce budworm. Can J For Res 25:1128-1136
133. Peltonen M, Liebhold AM, Bj0rnstad ON, Williams DW (2002) Spatial synchrony in forest insect outbreaks: Roles of regional stochasticity and dispersal. Ecology 83:3120-3129
134. Powell J, Tams J, Bentz B, Logan J (1998) Theoretical analysis of “switching” in a localized model for mountain pine beetle mass attack. J Theor Biol 194:49-63
135. Quayle D, Regniere J, Cappuccino N, Dupont A (2003) Forest composition, host-population density, and parasitism of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana eggs by Trichogramma minutum. Entomol Exp Appl 107:215-227
136. QMRNF (2013) Aires infestees par la tordeuse des bourgeons de l’epinette au Quebec en 2013 Quebec Min Res natur et de la faune
137. Quebec, QC Raffa KF, Aukema BH, Bentz BJ et al (2008) Cross-scale drivers of natural disturbances prone to anthropogenic amplification: the dynamics of bark beetle eruptions. Bioscience 58:501-517
138. Ranta E, Kaitala V, Lindstrom J, Helle E (1997) The Moran effect and synchrony in population dynamics. Oikos 78:136-142
139. Ravenscroft C, Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ, White MA (2010) Forest restoration in a mixed- ownership landscape under climate change. Ecol Appl 20:327-346
140. Regniere J, You M (1991) A simulation model of spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Totricidae) feeding on balsam fir and white spruce. Ecol Model 54:277-297
141. Regniere J, Delisle J, Pureswaran DS, Trudel R (2013) Mate-finding allee effect in spruce bud- worm population dynamics. Entomol Exp Appl 146:112-122
142. Regniere J, Lysyk TJ (1995) Population dynamics of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana. In: Armstrong JA, Ives WGH (eds) Forest insects pests in Canada. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service
143. Ottawa, ON Regniere J, Nealis VG (2007) Ecological mechanisms of population change during outbreaks of the spruce budworm. Ecol Entomol 32:461-477
144. Regniere J, St-Amant R, Duval P (2012) Predicting insect distributions under climate change from physiological responses: spruce budworm as an example. Biol Inv 14:1571-1586 Remsoft Spatial Planning System 2010 Woodstock 2010.5 User Guide. Remsoft Inc., Fredericton
145. Robert LE, Kneeshaw DD, Sturtevant BR (2012) Effects of forest management legacies on spruce budworm outbreaks. Can J For Res 42:463-475
146. Robert LE (2014) Landscapes level influence of forest management legacies on outbreaks of defoliating insects. Dissertation, Universite du Quebec a Montreal
147. Roland J, Taylor PD (1997) Insect parasitoid species respond to forest structure at different spatial scales. Nature 386:710-713
148. Roland J, Mackey BG, Cooke B (1998) Effects of climate and forest structure on duration of forest tent caterpillar outbreaks across central Ontario, Canada. Can Entomol 130:703-714
149. Roland J (2005) Are the “seeds” of spatial variation in cyclic dynamics apparent in spatially- replicated short time-series? An example from the forest tent caterpillar. Ann Zool Fenn 42:397-407
150. Roth D, Roland J, Roslin T (2006) Parasitoids on the loose—experimental lack of support of the parasitoid movement hypothesis. Oikos 115:277-285
151. Rose MR, Harmsen R (1981) Ecological outbreak dynamics and the cusp catastrophe. Acta Biotheor 30:229-253
152. Royama T (1971) A comparative study of models for predation and parasitism. Res Pop Ecol 13:1-91
153. Royama T (1980) Effect of adult dispersal on the dynamics of local populations of an insect species: a theoretical investigation. In: Berryman AA (ed) Dispersal of forest insects: evaluation, theory, and management implications. Cooperative Extension Service, Washington State University, Pullman, WA
154. Royama T (1984) Population dynamics of the spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana. Ecol Monogr 54:429-462
155. Royama T (1992) Analytical population dynamics. Chapman and Hall, London
156. Royama T (1997) Population dynamics of forest insects: are they governed by single or multiple factors? In: Watt AD, Stork NE, Hunter MD (eds) Forests and insects. Papers from the 18th symposium of the Royal Entomological Society in London, Sept 1995. Chapman and Hall, London
157. Royama T (2001) Measurement, analysis, and interpretation of mortality factors in insect survivorship studies, with reference to the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Pop Ecol 43:157-178
158. Royama T (2005) Moran effect on nonlinear population processes. Ecol Monogr 75:277-293
159. Royama T, MacKinnon WE, Kettela EG, Carter NE, Hartling LK (2005) Analysis of spruce budworm outbreak cycles in New Brunswick, Canada, since 1952. Ecology 86:1212-1224
160. Ruel J-C, Huot M (1993) Impact de la tordeuse des bourgeons de l’epinette [Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)] sur la regeneration des sapinieres apres la coupe a blanc. For Chron 69:163-172
161. Sanders CJ (1980) A summary of current techniques used for sampling spruce budworm populations and estimating defoliation in eastern Canada. Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forest Research Centre, Inf Rep O-X-306
162. Sanders CJ, Stark RW, Mullins EJ, Murphy J (eds) (1985) Recent advances in spruce budworms research. In: Proceedings of the CANUSA spruce budworms research symposium, Bangor, Maine, 16-20 Sept 1984. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, ON
163. Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2005) A spatially interactive simulation of climate change, harvesting, wind, and tree species migration and projected changes to forest composition and biomass in northern Wisconsin, USA. Global Change Biol 11:307-321
164. Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2007) An ecological classification of forest landscape simulation models: tools and strategies for understanding broad-scale forested ecosystems. Landscape Ecol 22:491-505
165. Scheller RM, Mladenoff DJ (2008) Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA. Clim Res 36:191-202
166. Simard I, Morin H, Lavoie C (2006) A millennial-scale reconstruction of spruce budworm abundance in Saguenay, Quebec, Canada. Holocene 16:31-37
167. Spence CE, MacLean DA (2012) Regeneration and stand development following a spruce bud- worm outbreak, spruce budworm-inspired harvest, and salvage harvest. Can J For Res 42:1759-1770
168. Stedinger JR (1984) A spruce budworm-forest model and its implications for suppression programs. For Sci 30:597-615
169. Sturtevant BR, Gustafson EJ, Li W, He HS (2004) Modeling biological disturbances in LANDIS: a module description and demonstration using spruce budworm. Ecol Model 180:153-174
170. Sturtevant BR, Miranda BR, Shinneman DJ, Gustafson EJ, Wolter PT (2012) Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness—does spruce budworm enhance fire risk? Ecol Appl 22:1278-1296
171. Sturtevant BR, Achtemeier GL, Charney JJ, Cooke BJ, Townsend PA (2013) Long-distance dispersal of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens) in Minnesota (USA) and Ontario (Canada) via the atmospheric pathway. Agr Forest Meteor 168:186-200
172. Swaine JM, Craighead FC (1924) Studies on the spruce budworm (Cacoecia fumiferana Clem.). Part 1: a general account of the outbreaks, injury and associated insects. Canada Dept Agric Tech Bull 37:3-27
173. Su Q, MacLean DA, Needham TD (1996) The influence of hardwood content on balsam fir defoliation by spruce budworm. Can J For Res 26:1620-1628
174. Turchin P (1990) Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags? Nature 344:660-663
175. Urban DL (2005) Modeling ecological processes across scales. Ecology 86:1996-2006
176. Volney WJA (1985) Comparative population biologies of North American spruce budworms. In: Sanders CJ, Stark RW, Mullins EJ, Murphy J (eds) Recent advances in spruce budworms research. Proceedings of the CANUSA spruce budworms research symposium, Bangor, Maine, 16-20 Sept 1984. Agriculture Canada, Ministry of State for Forestry, Ottawa
177. Volney WJA, Fleming RA (2000) Climate change and impacts of boreal forest insects. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:283-294
178. Watt KEF (1963) How closely does the model mimic reality? Mem Entomol Soc Can 95:109-111
179. Watt KEF (1964) The use of mathematics and computers to determine optimal strategy and tactics for a given outbreak pest control problem. Can Entomol 96:202-220
180. Webb FE, Cameron DC, and MacDonald DR (1956) Studies of aerial spraying against the spruce budworm in New Brunswick. V. Techniques for large-scale egg and defoliation ground surveys 1953-55, Canada Department of Agriculture, Forest Biology Division, Interim Report 1955-58. Forest Biology Laboratory, Fredericton, New Brunswick. p. 24
181. Wermelinger B (2004) Ecology and management of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus—a review of recent research. For Ecol Manage 202:67-82
182. Williams DW, Liebhold AM (2000) Spatial synchrony of spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern North America. Ecology 81:2753-2766
183. Wood DM, Parry D, Yanai RD, Pitel NE (2010) Forest fragmentation and duration of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hubner) outbreaks in northern hardwood forests. For Ecol Manage 260:1193-1197
184. Zhao K, MacLean DA, Hennigar CR (2014) Spatial variability of spruce budworm defoliation at different scales. For Ecol Manage 328:10-19
185. Zografou K, Kati V, Grill A et al (2014) Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a mediterranean protected area. PLoS ONE 9:e87245