메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 21, Issue 11, 2015, Pages 4141-4152

Back to the future: Using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood

Author keywords

Climate change adaptation; Climate change sensitivity; Climatic analogs; MaxEnt; Range shifts; Sequoia sempervirens

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; CONIFEROUS TREE; DOWNSCALING; ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE; GLOBAL CLIMATE; HABITAT TYPE; HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM;

EID: 84944080686     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13027     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (21)

References (77)
  • 1
    • 84871621906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling
    • Abatzoglou JT (2013) Development of gridded surface meteorological data for ecological applications and modelling. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 121-131.
    • (2013) International Journal of Climatology , vol.33 , pp. 121-131
    • Abatzoglou, J.T.1
  • 2
    • 80052823236 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications
    • Abatzoglou JT, Brown TJ (2012) A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 772-780.
    • (2012) International Journal of Climatology , vol.32 , pp. 772-780
    • Abatzoglou, J.T.1    Brown, T.J.2
  • 4
    • 84870853962 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the US northeast
    • Ahmed KF, Wang G, Silander J, Wilson AM, Allen JM, Horton R, Anyah R (2013) Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the US northeast. Global and Planetary Change, 100, 320-332.
    • (2013) Global and Planetary Change , vol.100 , pp. 320-332
    • Ahmed, K.F.1    Wang, G.2    Silander, J.3    Wilson, A.M.4    Allen, J.M.5    Horton, R.6    Anyah, R.7
  • 5
    • 33750525529 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS)
    • Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223-1232.
    • (2006) Journal of Applied Ecology , vol.43 , pp. 1223-1232
    • Allouche, O.1    Tsoar, A.2    Kadmon, R.3
  • 6
    • 69849089916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Appropriate experimental ecosystem warming methods by ecosystem, objective, and practicality
    • Aronson EL, McNulty SG (2009) Appropriate experimental ecosystem warming methods by ecosystem, objective, and practicality. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149, 1791-1799.
    • (2009) Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , vol.149 , pp. 1791-1799
    • Aronson, E.L.1    McNulty, S.G.2
  • 7
    • 0025198330 scopus 로고
    • Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling
    • Bakun A (1990) Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling. Science, 247, 198-201.
    • (1990) Science , vol.247 , pp. 198-201
    • Bakun, A.1
  • 8
    • 77950253526 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Greenhouse gas, upwelling-favorable winds, and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems
    • Bakun A, Field DB, Redondo-Rodriguez A, Weeks SJ (2010) Greenhouse gas, upwelling-favorable winds, and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems. Global Change Biology, 16, 1213-1228.
    • (2010) Global Change Biology , vol.16 , pp. 1213-1228
    • Bakun, A.1    Field, D.B.2    Redondo-Rodriguez, A.3    Weeks, S.J.4
  • 9
    • 3843103502 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The contribution of fog to the water relations of Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don): foliar uptake and prevention of dehydration
    • Burgess SSO, Dawson TE (2004) The contribution of fog to the water relations of Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don): foliar uptake and prevention of dehydration. Plant, Cell & Environment, 27, 1023-1034.
    • (2004) Plant, Cell & Environment , vol.27 , pp. 1023-1034
    • Burgess, S.S.O.1    Dawson, T.E.2
  • 11
    • 84930175695 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Topographic, latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope
    • Chardon NI, Cornwell WK, Flint LE, Flint AL, Ackerly DD (2014) Topographic, latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope. Ecography, 38, 590-601.
    • (2014) Ecography , vol.38 , pp. 590-601
    • Chardon, N.I.1    Cornwell, W.K.2    Flint, L.E.3    Flint, A.L.4    Ackerly, D.D.5
  • 12
    • 80052268124 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends
    • Cordero EC, Kessomkiat W, Abatzoglou JT, Mauget SA (2011) The identification of distinct patterns in California temperature trends. Climatic Change, 108, 357-382.
    • (2011) Climatic Change , vol.108 , pp. 357-382
    • Cordero, E.C.1    Kessomkiat, W.2    Abatzoglou, J.T.3    Mauget, S.A.4
  • 15
    • 84865822936 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble
    • Diffenbaugh NS, Giorgi F (2012) Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble. Climatic Change, 114, 813-822.
    • (2012) Climatic Change , vol.114 , pp. 813-822
    • Diffenbaugh, N.S.1    Giorgi, F.2
  • 17
    • 73949141293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time
    • Elith J, Leathwick Jr. (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, 40, 677-697.
    • (2009) Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics , vol.40 , pp. 677-697
    • Elith, J.1    Leathwick, J.R.2
  • 18
    • 75349092141 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A hydroclimatic index for examining patterns of drought in the Colorado River Basin
    • Ellis AW, Goodrich GB, Garfin GM (2010) A hydroclimatic index for examining patterns of drought in the Colorado River Basin. International Journal of Climatology, 30, 236-255.
    • (2010) International Journal of Climatology , vol.30 , pp. 236-255
    • Ellis, A.W.1    Goodrich, G.B.2    Garfin, G.M.3
  • 19
    • 84900431307 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characterizing uncertainty in species distribution models derived from interpolated weather station data
    • Fernández M, Hamilton H, Kueppers LM (2013) Characterizing uncertainty in species distribution models derived from interpolated weather station data. Ecosphere, 4, art61.
    • (2013) Ecosphere , vol.4
    • Fernández, M.1    Hamilton, H.2    Kueppers, L.M.3
  • 20
    • 84861194893 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of vegetation cover, presence of a native ant species, and human disturbance on colonization by Argentine ants
    • Fitzgerald K, Gordon DM (2012) Effects of vegetation cover, presence of a native ant species, and human disturbance on colonization by Argentine ants. Conservation Biology, 26, 525-538.
    • (2012) Conservation Biology , vol.26 , pp. 525-538
    • Fitzgerald, K.1    Gordon, D.M.2
  • 21
    • 85029069680 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis
    • Flint LE, Flint AL (2012) Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis. Ecological Processes, 1, 1-15.
    • (2012) Ecological Processes , vol.1 , pp. 1-15
    • Flint, L.E.1    Flint, A.L.2
  • 22
    • 85013271300 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: the California Basin Characterization Model development and performance
    • Flint LE, Flint AL, Thorne JH, Boynton R (2013) Fine-scale hydrologic modeling for regional landscape applications: the California Basin Characterization Model development and performance. Ecological Processes, 2, 1-21.
    • (2013) Ecological Processes , vol.2 , pp. 1-21
    • Flint, L.E.1    Flint, A.L.2    Thorne, J.H.3    Boynton, R.4
  • 29
    • 84855839693 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate-driven trends and ecological implications of event-scale upwelling in the California Current System
    • Iles AC, Gouhier TC, Menge BA, Stewart JS, Haupt AJ, Lynch MC (2012) Climate-driven trends and ecological implications of event-scale upwelling in the California Current System. Global Change Biology, 18, 783-796.
    • (2012) Global Change Biology , vol.18 , pp. 783-796
    • Iles, A.C.1    Gouhier, T.C.2    Menge, B.A.3    Stewart, J.S.4    Haupt, A.J.5    Lynch, M.C.6
  • 32
    • 68149131850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change, habitat loss, protected areas and the climate adaptation potential of species in Mediterranean ecosystems worldwide
    • Klausmeyer KR, Shaw MR (2009) Climate change, habitat loss, protected areas and the climate adaptation potential of species in Mediterranean ecosystems worldwide. PLoS ONE, 4, e6392.
    • (2009) PLoS ONE , vol.4 , pp. e6392
    • Klausmeyer, K.R.1    Shaw, M.R.2
  • 33
    • 84875747385 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
    • Knutti R, Sedlacek J (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change, 3, 369-373.
    • (2013) Nature Climate Change , vol.3 , pp. 369-373
    • Knutti, R.1    Sedlacek, J.2
  • 34
    • 42049101227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools
    • Kremen C, Cameron A, Moilanen A et al. (2008) Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools. Science, 320, 222-226.
    • (2008) Science , vol.320 , pp. 222-226
    • Kremen, C.1    Cameron, A.2    Moilanen, A.3
  • 36
    • 36348945728 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends
    • LaDochy S, Medina R, Patzert W (2007) Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Climate Research, 33, 159-169.
    • (2007) Climate Research , vol.33 , pp. 159-169
    • LaDochy, S.1    Medina, R.2    Patzert, W.3
  • 37
    • 67749137588 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observed 1970-2005 cooling of summer daytime temperatures in coastal California
    • Lebassi B, Gonzalez J, Fabris D et al. (2009) Observed 1970-2005 cooling of summer daytime temperatures in coastal California. Journal of Climate, 22, 3558-3573.
    • (2009) Journal of Climate , vol.22 , pp. 3558-3573
    • Lebassi, B.1    Gonzalez, J.2    Fabris, D.3
  • 38
    • 70349293641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Foliar water uptake: a common water acquisition strategy for plants of the redwood forest
    • Limm EB, Simonin KA, Bothman AG, Dawson TE (2009) Foliar water uptake: a common water acquisition strategy for plants of the redwood forest. Oecologia, 161, 449-459.
    • (2009) Oecologia , vol.161 , pp. 449-459
    • Limm, E.B.1    Simonin, K.A.2    Bothman, A.G.3    Dawson, T.E.4
  • 40
    • 38949161848 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models
    • Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Real R (2008) AUC: a misleading measure of the performance of predictive distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17, 145-151.
    • (2008) Global Ecology and Biogeography , vol.17 , pp. 145-151
    • Lobo, J.M.1    Jiménez-Valverde, A.2    Real, R.3
  • 41
    • 77953929268 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The uncertain nature of absences and their importance in species distribution modelling
    • Lobo JM, Jimenez-Valverde A, Hortal J (2010) The uncertain nature of absences and their importance in species distribution modelling. Ecography, 33, 103-114.
    • (2010) Ecography , vol.33 , pp. 103-114
    • Lobo, J.M.1    Jimenez-Valverde, A.2    Hortal, J.3
  • 42
    • 0014534148 scopus 로고
    • Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues
    • Lorenz EN (1969) Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 26, 636-646.
    • (1969) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences , vol.26 , pp. 636-646
    • Lorenz, E.N.1
  • 43
    • 21744437983 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of six potential evapotranspiration methods for regional use in the southeastern United States
    • Lu J, Sun G, McNulty SG, Amatya DM (2005) A comparison of six potential evapotranspiration methods for regional use in the southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 41, 621-633.
    • (2005) Journal of the American Water Resources Association , vol.41 , pp. 621-633
    • Lu, J.1    Sun, G.2    McNulty, S.G.3    Amatya, D.M.4
  • 44
    • 84870366405 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using assisted colonisation to conserve biodiversity and restore ecosystem function under climate change
    • Lunt ID, Byrne M, Hellmann JJ et al. (2013) Using assisted colonisation to conserve biodiversity and restore ecosystem function under climate change. Biological Conservation, 157, 172-177.
    • (2013) Biological Conservation , vol.157 , pp. 172-177
    • Lunt, I.D.1    Byrne, M.2    Hellmann, J.J.3
  • 47
    • 32044455808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using coarse-grained occurrence data to predict species distributions at finer spatial resolutions - possibilities and limitations
    • McPherson JM, Jetz W, Rogers DJ (2006) Using coarse-grained occurrence data to predict species distributions at finer spatial resolutions - possibilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling, 192, 499-522.
    • (2006) Ecological Modelling , vol.192 , pp. 499-522
    • McPherson, J.M.1    Jetz, W.2    Rogers, D.J.3
  • 50
    • 7044222164 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changing the way we think about global change research: scaling up in experimental ecosystem science
    • Osmond B, Ananyev G, Berry J et al. (2004) Changing the way we think about global change research: scaling up in experimental ecosystem science. Global Change Biology, 10, 393-407.
    • (2004) Global Change Biology , vol.10 , pp. 393-407
    • Osmond, B.1    Ananyev, G.2    Berry, J.3
  • 52
    • 50649121230 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Toward improved species niche modelling: Arnica montana in the Alps as a case study
    • Parolo G, Rossi G, Ferrarini A (2008) Toward improved species niche modelling: Arnica montana in the Alps as a case study. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45, 1410-1418.
    • (2008) Journal of Applied Ecology , vol.45 , pp. 1410-1418
    • Parolo, G.1    Rossi, G.2    Ferrarini, A.3
  • 55
    • 0034976506 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting species invasions using ecological niche modeling: new approaches from bioinformatics attack a pressing problem
    • Peterson AT, Vieglais DA (2001) Predicting species invasions using ecological niche modeling: new approaches from bioinformatics attack a pressing problem. BioScience, 51, 363-371.
    • (2001) BioScience , vol.51 , pp. 363-371
    • Peterson, A.T.1    Vieglais, D.A.2
  • 56
    • 41449100102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation
    • Phillips SJ, Dudik M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161-175.
    • (2008) Ecography , vol.31 , pp. 161-175
    • Phillips, S.J.1    Dudik, M.2
  • 57
  • 58
    • 84881625192 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California
    • Pierce DW, Cayan DR, Das T et al. (2013) The key role of heavy precipitation events in climate model disagreements of future annual precipitation changes in California. Journal of Climate, 26, 5879-5896.
    • (2013) Journal of Climate , vol.26 , pp. 5879-5896
    • Pierce, D.W.1    Cayan, D.R.2    Das, T.3
  • 60
    • 66249127913 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fog interception by Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) crowns decouples physiology from soil water deficit
    • Simonin KA, Santiago LS, Dawson TE (2009) Fog interception by Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) crowns decouples physiology from soil water deficit. Plant, Cell & Environment, 32, 882-892.
    • (2009) Plant, Cell & Environment , vol.32 , pp. 882-892
    • Simonin, K.A.1    Santiago, L.S.2    Dawson, T.E.3
  • 62
    • 0025204978 scopus 로고
    • Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance
    • Stephenson N (1990) Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance. American Naturalist, 1990, 649-670.
    • (1990) American Naturalist , vol.1990 , pp. 649-670
    • Stephenson, N.1
  • 63
    • 0032419602 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales
    • Stephenson N (1998) Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales. Journal of Biogeography, 25, 855-870.
    • (1998) Journal of Biogeography , vol.25 , pp. 855-870
    • Stephenson, N.1
  • 65
    • 77950100473 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change
    • Tabor K, Williams JW (2010) Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change. Ecological Applications, 20, 554-565.
    • (2010) Ecological Applications , vol.20 , pp. 554-565
    • Tabor, K.1    Williams, J.W.2
  • 67
    • 80053912619 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • RCP4. 5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100
    • Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ et al. (2011) RCP4. 5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Climatic Change, 109, 77-94.
    • (2011) Climatic Change , vol.109 , pp. 77-94
    • Thomson, A.M.1    Calvin, K.V.2    Smith, S.J.3
  • 68
    • 0001442636 scopus 로고
    • The water balance. Centerton: Drexel Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Climatology
    • Thornthwaite CW, Mather Jr. (1955) The water balance. Centerton: Drexel Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Climatology. Publications in Climatology, 8, 5-85.
    • (1955) Publications in Climatology , vol.8 , pp. 5-85
    • Thornthwaite, C.W.1    Mather, J.R.2
  • 69
    • 84875129313 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California Region
    • Torregrosa A, Taylor MD, Flint LE, Flint AL (2013) Present, future, and novel bioclimates of the San Francisco, California Region. PLoS ONE, 8, e58450.
    • (2013) PLoS ONE , vol.8 , pp. e58450
    • Torregrosa, A.1    Taylor, M.D.2    Flint, L.E.3    Flint, A.L.4
  • 70
    • 58849160847 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: how far should you stray from what you know?
    • VanDerWal J, Shoo LP, Graham C, Williams SE (2009) Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: how far should you stray from what you know? Ecological Modelling, 220, 589-594.
    • (2009) Ecological Modelling , vol.220 , pp. 589-594
    • VanDerWal, J.1    Shoo, L.P.2    Graham, C.3    Williams, S.E.4
  • 72
    • 0032565978 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential evaporation functions compared on US watersheds: possible implications for global-scale water balance and terrestrial ecosystem modeling
    • Vörösmarty CJ, Federer CA, Schloss AL (1998) Potential evaporation functions compared on US watersheds: possible implications for global-scale water balance and terrestrial ecosystem modeling. Journal of Hydrology, 207, 147-169.
    • (1998) Journal of Hydrology , vol.207 , pp. 147-169
    • Vörösmarty, C.J.1    Federer, C.A.2    Schloss, A.L.3
  • 73
  • 74
    • 84878809906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The statistical downscaling model: insights from one decade of application
    • Wilby RL, Dawson CW (2013) The statistical downscaling model: insights from one decade of application. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 1707-1719.
    • (2013) International Journal of Climatology , vol.33 , pp. 1707-1719
    • Wilby, R.L.1    Dawson, C.W.2
  • 76
    • 0033172665 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods
    • Zorita E, Von Storch H (1999) The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods. Journal of Climate, 12, 2474-2489.
    • (1999) Journal of Climate , vol.12 , pp. 2474-2489
    • Zorita, E.1    Von Storch, H.2
  • 77
    • 0027457620 scopus 로고
    • Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots: a fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine
    • Zweig MH, Campbell G (1993) Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) plots: a fundamental evaluation tool in clinical medicine. Clinical Chemistry, 39, 561-577.
    • (1993) Clinical Chemistry , vol.39 , pp. 561-577
    • Zweig, M.H.1    Campbell, G.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.