Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Nature Geoscience

Volumn 8, Issue 10, 2015, Pages 801-807

  Barnard, Patrick L ^a   Short, Andrew D ^b   Harley, Mitchell D ^c,d   Splinter, Kristen D ^d   Vitousek, Sean ^a   Turner, Ian L ^d   Allan, Jonathan ^e   Banno, Masayuki ^f   Bryan, Karin R ^g   Doria, André ^h   Hansen, Jeff E ⁱ   Kato, Shigeru ^j   Kuriyama, Yoshiaki ^f   Randall Goodwin, Evan ^a,k   Ruggiero, Peter ^l   Walker, Ian J ^m   Heathfield, Derek K ^m  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF FERRARA   (Italy)

^d UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^e Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries   (United States)

^f PORT AND AIRPORT RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

^g UNIVERSITY OF WAIKATO   (New Zealand)

^h UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

^j TOYOHASHI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

^k UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^l OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^m UNIVERSITY OF VICTORIA   (Canada)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BEACH; COASTAL EROSION; COASTAL ZONE; DATA ASSIMILATION; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; EXTREME EVENT; FUTURE PROSPECT; LA NINA; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; STORM SURGE; VULNERABILITY; WATER LEVEL; WAVE CLIMATE;

PACIFIC COAST [NORTH AMERICA]; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTHEAST); PACIFIC OCEAN (SOUTH); PACIFIC OCEAN (WEST);

EID: 84942754361     PISSN: 17520894     EISSN: 17520908     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2539     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Nicholls, R. J. et al. Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4 °C world' in the twenty-first century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 161-181 (2011).
2. Hallegate, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J. & Corfee-Morlot, J. Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Clim. Change 3, 802-806 (2013).
3. Young, I. R., Zieger, S. & Babanin, A. V. Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science 332, 451-455 (2011).
4. Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M. & Francis, R. C. A Pacific decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 1069-1079 (1997).
5. Wolter, K. The Southern Oscillation in surface circulation and climate over the tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Indian Oceans as captured by cluster analysis. J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 26, 540-558 (1987).
6. Wolter, K. & Timlin, M. S. in Proc. 17th Clim. Diagnostics Work. 52-57 (CIMMS and the School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklahoma, 1993).
7. Rogers, J. C. & van Loon, H. Spatial variability of sea level pressure and 500 mb height anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Weath. Rev. 110, 1375-1392 (1982).
8. Hemer, M. A., Church, J. A. & Hunter, J. R. Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere. Int. J. Climatol. 30, 475-491 (2010).
9. Wallace, J. M. & Gutzler, D. S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere. Mon. Weath. Rev. 109, 784-812 (1981).
10. Kuriyama, Y., Banno, M. & Suzuki, T. Linkages among interannual variations of shoreline, wave and climate at Hasaki, Japan. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06604 (2012).
11. Storlazzi, C. D. & Griggs, G. B. Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 112, 236-249 (2000).
12. Sallenger, A. H. et al. Sea-cliff erosion as a function of beach changes and extreme wave runup during the 1997-1998 El Niño. Mar. Geol. 187, 279-297 (2002).
13. Allan, J. C. & Komar, P. D. Climate controls on US West Coast erosion processes. J. Coast. Res. 22, 511-529 (2006).
14. Abyswirigunawardena, D. S. & Walker, I. J. Sea level responses to climate variability and change in northern British Columbia. Atmosphere 46, 277-296 (2008).
15. Barnard, P. L. et al. The impact of the 2009-10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L13604 (2011).
16. Heathfield, D. K., Walker, I. J. & Atkinson, D. E. Erosive water level regime and climatic variability forcing of beach-dune systems on south-western Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Earth Surf. Land. 38, 751-762 (2013).
17. Smith, R. K. & Benson, A. P. Beach profile monitoring: How frequent is sufficient? J. Coast. Res. 34, 573-579 (2001).
18. Ranasinghe, R., McLoughlin, R., Short, A. & Symonds, G. The Southern Oscillation Index, wave climate, and beach rotation. Mar. Geol. 204, 273-287 (2004).
19. Harley, M. D., Turner, I. L., Short, A. D. & Ranasinghe, R. Interannual variability and controls of the Sydney wave climate. Int. J. Climatol. 30, 1322-1335 (2010).
20. Thom, B. G. in Landform Evolution in Australia: Canberra (eds Davies, J. L. & Williams, M. A.) 197-214 (Australian National University Press, 1978).
21. Bryant, E. Regional sea level, Southern Oscillation and beach change, New South Wales, Australia. Nature 305, 213-216 (1983).
22. Clarke, D. J. & Eliot, I. G. Low-frequency variation in the seasonal intensity of coastal weather systems and sediment movement on the beachface of a sandy beach. Mar. Geol. 79, 23-39 (1988).
23. Phinn, S. R. & Hastings, P. A. Southern Oscillation influences on the wave climate of south-eastern Australia. J. Coast. Res. 8, 579-592 (1992).
24. Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553-597 (2010).
25. Shimura, T., Mori, N. & Mase, H. Ocean waves and teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Clim. 26, 8654-8670 (2013).
26. Tokinaga, H. & Xie, S.-P. Wave-and anemometer-based sea surface wind (WASWind) for climate change analysis. J. Clim. 24, 267-285 (2011).
27. Mori, N., Yasuda, T., Mase, H., Tom, T. & Oku, Y. Projections of extreme wave climate change under global warming. Hydrol. Res. Lett. 4, 15-19 (2010).
28. Dobrynin, M., Murawsky, J. & Yang, S. Evolution of the global wind wave climate in CMIP5 experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L18606 (2012).
29. Hemer, M. A., Fan, Y., Mori, N., Semedo, A. & Wang, X. L. Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble. Nature Clim. Change 3, 471-476 (2013).
30. Semedo, A. et al. Projection of global wave climate change toward the end of the twenty-first century. J. Clim. 26, 8269-8288 (2013).
31. Previdi, M. & Liepert, B. G. Annular modes of Hadley cell expansion under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L22701 (2007).
32. Arblaster, J. M., Meehl, G. A. & Karoly, D. J. Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L02701 (2011).
33. Collins, M. et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño. Nature Geosci. 3, 391-397 (2010).
34. Stevenson, S. L. Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty-first century: Results from CMIP5. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L17703 (2012).
35. Cai, W. et al. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nature Clim. Change 4, 111-116 (2014).
36. WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5-CMIP5. CLIVAR Exchanges 16 (Special issue), 1-52 (2011).
37. Cai, W. et al. Increased frequency of La Niña events under greenhouse warming. Nature Clim. Change 5, 132-137 (2015).
38. L'Heureux, M. L., Lee, S. & Lyon, B. Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker Circulation across the tropical Pacific. Nature Clim. Change 3, 571-576 (2013).
39. Erikson, L. H., Hegermiller, C. A., Barnard, P. L., Ruggiero, P. & van Ormondt, M. Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios. Ocean Model. (2015).
40. Harley, M. D., Barnard, P. L. & Turner, I. L. Coastal Sediments 2015: The Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2015 (World Scientific, 2015).