An economic analysis of poliovirus risk management policy options for 2013-2052

BMC Infectious Diseases

Volumn 15, Issue 1, 2015, Pages

  Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J ^a   Pallansch, Mark A ^b   Cochi, Stephen L ^c   Wassilak, Steven G F ^c   Thompson, Kimberly M ^a  

^a Kid Risk Inc   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR IMMUNIZATION AND RESPIRATORY DISEASES   (United States)

^c CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

POLIOMYELITIS VACCINE; ANTIVIRUS AGENT; ORAL POLIOMYELITIS VACCINE;

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; ECONOMIC EVALUATION; EPIDEMIC; HEALTH CARE COST; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HUMAN; INFECTION CONTROL; INFECTION RISK; LONG TERM CARE; NONHUMAN; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; POLIOMYELITIS; POLIOMYELITIS VIRUS; RISK MANAGEMENT; STOCHASTIC MODEL; VACCINATION; VIRAL CLEARANCE; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; ECONOMICS; IMMUNE DEFICIENCY; IMMUNOLOGY; PATHOLOGY; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; PUBLIC HEALTH; SEROTYPE; TRANSMISSION;

ANTIVIRAL AGENTS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HUMANS; IMMUNOLOGIC DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES; POLIOMYELITIS; POLIOVIRUS; POLIOVIRUS VACCINE, INACTIVATED; POLIOVIRUS VACCINE, ORAL; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES; PUBLIC HEALTH; RISK MANAGEMENT; SEROGROUP; VACCINATION;

EID: 84942363757     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14712334     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-015-1112-8     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. World Health Organization; Global Polio Eradication Initiative -- List of wild poliovirus by country. http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek/Wildpolioviruslist.aspx . Accessed January 18 2015.
2. World Health Organization. Transmission of wild poliovirus type 2 - Apparent global interruption. Wkly Epidemiol Rec. 2001;76:95-7.
3. Kew OM, Cochi SL, Jafari HS, Wassilak SG, Mast EE, Diop OM, et al. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC): Possible eradication of wild poliovirus type 3--worldwide, 2012. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2014;63(45):1031-3.
4. Thompson KM, Pallansch MA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Wassilak SG, Kim J-H, Cochi SL. Pre-eradication vaccine policy options for poliovirus infection and disease control. Risk Anal. 2013;33(4):516-43.
5. Thompson KM, Pallansch MA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Wassilak SGF, Cochi SL. Modeling population immunity to support efforts to end the transmission of live polioviruses. Risk Anal. 2013;33(4):647-63.
6. Thompson KM, Kalkowska DA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. Managing population immunity to reduce or eliminate the risks of circulation following the importation of live polioviruses. Vaccine. 2015;33(3):1568-77.
7. Sutter RW, Kew OM, Cochi SL, Aylward RB. Poliovirus vaccine -- Live. In: Plotkin SA, Orenstein WA, Offit PA, Plotkin SA, Orenstein WA, Offit PA, editors. Vaccines. Sixthth ed. Philadelphia: Saunders Elsevier; 2013. p. 598-645.
8. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Kew OM, Cáceres VM, Jafari H, Cochi SL, et al. Risks of paralytic disease due to wild or vaccine-derived poliovirus after eradication. Risk Anal. 2006;26(6):1471-505.
9. World Health Organization: Polio Eradication Initiative. Cessation of Routine Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) use after Global Polio Eradication. Framework for National Policy Makers in OPV-using Countries. Geneva, 2005; Report No.: WHO/POL/05.02.
10. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Kim J-H, Burns CC, Kew OM, Oberste MS, et al. Review: Oral poliovirus vaccine evolution and insights relevant to modeling the risks of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs). Risk Anal. 2013;23(4):680-702.
11. Kew O, Morris-Glasgow V, Landaverde M, Burns C, Shaw J, Garib Z, et al. Outbreak of poliomyelitis in Hispaniola associated with circulating type 1 vaccine-derived poliovirus. Science. 2002;296(5566):356-9.
12. Kew OM, Sutter RW, de Gourville EM, Dowdle WR, Pallansch MA. Vaccine-derived polioviruses and the endgame strategy for global polio eradication. Annu Rev Microbiol. 2005;59:587-635.
13. Wassilak SGF, Pate MA, Wannemuehler K, Jenks J, Burns C, Chenoweth P, et al. Outbreak of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus in Nigeria: emergence and widespread circulation in an underimmunized population. J Infect Dis. 2011;203(7):898-909.
14. Burns C, Diop O, Sutter RW, Kew OM. Vaccine-derived polioviruses. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S283-93.
15. Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. The case for cooperation in managing and maintaining the end of poliomyelitis: Stockpile needs and coordinated OPV cessation. Medscape J Med. 2008;10(8):190.
16. World Health Organization; World schedule as of 2013/October/20. http://www.who.int/immunization/monitoring_surveillance/data/en/ . Accessed May 19 2014.
17. Vidor E, Plotkin SA. Poliovirus vaccine -- Inactivated. In: Plotkin SA, Orenstein WA, Offit PA, editors. Vaccines. Sixthth ed. Philadelphia: Saunders Elsevier; 2013. p. 573-97.
18. Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. National choices related to inactivated poliovirus vaccine, innovation, and the end game of global polio eradication. Exp Rev Vaccines. 2014;13(2):221-34.
19. World Health Organization: Global Polio Eradication Initiative: Polio Eradication and Endgame Strategic Plan (2013-2018). Geneva, 2013; Report No.: WHO/POLIO/13.02.
20. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Chumakov KM, Halsey NA, Hovi T, Minor PD, et al. Expert review on poliovirus immunity and transmission. Risk Anal. 2013;33(4):544-605.
21. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Chumakov KM, Halsey NA, Hovi T, Minor PD, et al. Review and assessment of poliovirus immunity and transmission: Synthesis of knowledge gaps and identification of research needs. Risk Anal. 2013;33(4):606-46.
22. Anis E, Kopel E, Singer S, Kaliner E, Moerman L, Moran-Gilad J, et al. Insidious reintroduction of wild poliovirus into Israel, 2013. Euro Surveill. 2013;18(38):pii=20586.
23. Kalkowska DA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Grotto I, Shulman LM, Anis E, Wassilak SGF, et al. Modeling options to manage type 1 wild poliovirus imported into Israel in 2013. J Infect Dis. 2015;211(11):1800-12.
24. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. Modeling the potential role of inactivated poliovirus vaccine to manage the risks of oral poliovirus vaccine cessation. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S485-97.
25. Wahjuhono G, Revolusiana, Widhiastuti D, Sundoro J, Mardani T, Ratih WU, et al. Switch from oral to inactivated poliovirus vaccine in Yogyakarta Province, Indonesia: summary of coverage, immunity, and environmental surveillance. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S347-52.
26. Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Kew OM, Sutter RW, Aylward RB, et al. The risks, costs, and benefits of possible future global policies for managing polioviruses. Am J Public Health. 2008;98(7):1322-30.
27. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Kew OM, Sutter RW, Aylward RB, Watkins M, et al. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a decision analytic model for post-eradication polio risk management. Risk Anal. 2008;28(4):855-76.
28. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Kew OM, Cáceres VM, Sutter RW, Thompson KM. A dynamic model of poliomyelitis outbreaks: Learning from the past to help inform the future. Am J Epidemiol. 2005;162(4):358-72.
29. Grassly NC, Wenger J, Durrani S, Bahl S, Deshpande JM, Sutter RW, et al. Protective efficacy of a monovalent oral type 1 poliovirus vaccine: a case-control study. Lancet. 2007;369(9570):1356-62.
30. Global Polio Eradication Initiative; World ready for OPV2 cessation. http://www.polioeradication.org/mediaroom/newsstories/World-ready-for-OPV2-cessation-/tabid/526/news/1181/Default.aspx?popUp=true . Accessed January 28 2015.
31. Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. Current polio global eradication and control policy options: Perspectives from modeling and prerequisites for OPV cessation. Expert Reviews of Vaccines. 2012;11(4):449-59.
32. Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ: Health and economic consequences of different options for timing the coordinated global cessation of the three oral poliovirus vaccine serotypes. doi: 10.1186/s12879-015-1113-7 .
33. Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat; World Population Prospects: The 2012 revision. Volume I: Comprehensive tables. New York, 2013; Report No.: ST/ESA/SER.A/336.
34. World Bank; World Bank list of economies (October 2013). http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/CLASS.XLS . Accessed December 23 2013.
35. Gold MR, Siegel JE, Russel LB, Weinstein MC. Cost-effectiveness in health and medicine. New York: Oxford University Press; 1996.
36. World Health Organization: WHO guide for standardization of economic evaluations of immunization programmes. Geneva: Initiative for Vaccine Research, Department of Immunization, Vaccine, and Biologicals, 2008; Report No.: WHO/IVB/0814.
37. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor; Consumer price index. http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1401.pdf . Accessed September 16 2015.
38. Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Ezzati M, Jamison DT, Murray CJL. The Global Burden of Disease: A Comprehensive Assessment of Mortality and Disability from Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors in 1990 and Projected to 2020. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press; 2006.
39. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM, Hunink M, Mazzuchi TM, Lewandowski D, Kurowicka D, et al. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a dynamic economic evaluation model for vaccination programs. Med Dec Making. 2008;28(2):182-200.
40. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Cochi SL, Wassilak SGF, Linkins J, Sutter RW, et al. Economic analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Vaccine. 2011;29(2):334-43.
41. World Health Organization: Global Polio Eradication Initiative - Financial resource requirements 2013-2018 as of 1 June 2013. Geneva, 2013; Report No.: WHO/POLIO/13.01.
42. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Sangrujee N, Thompson KM. The costs of polio risk management policies after eradication. Risk Anal. 2006;26(6):1507-31.
43. Aylward RB, Acharya A, England S, Agocs M, Linkins J. Global health goals: lessons from the worldwide effort to eradicate poliomyelitis. Lancet. 2003;362(9387):909-14.
44. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM: Managing the risk of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus during the endgame: Oral poliovirus vaccine needs. doi: 10.1186/s12879-015-1114-6
45. Hutubessy R, Chisholm D, Edejer TT-T, WHO-CHOICE. Generalized cost-effectiveness analysis for national-level priority-setting in the health sector. Cost Eff Resour Alloc. 2003;1(1):8.
46. World Bank; World Data Bank: Health Nutrition and Population Statistics. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/home.aspx . Accessed January 19 2014.
47. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Kalkowska DA, Wassilak SG, Cochi SL, Thompson KM. Characterizing poliovirus transmission and evolution: Insights from modeling experiences with wild and vaccine-related polioviruses. Risk Anal. 2013;23(4):703-49.
48. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Kalkowska DA, Wassilak SGF, Pallansch MA, Cochi SL, Thompson KM. The potential impact of expanding target age groups for polio immunization campaigns. BMC Infect Dis. 2014;14:45.
49. Kisjes KH, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Wallace GS, Pallansch MA, Cochi SL, Wassilak SGF, et al. Individual-based modeling of potential poliovirus transmission in connected religious communities in North America with low uptake of vaccination. J Infect Dis. 2014;210(Supplement 1):S424-33.
50. Kalkowska DA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. Modeling strategies to increase population immunity and prevent poliovirus transmission in the high-risk area of northwest Nigeria. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S412-23.
51. Rahmandad H, Sterman J. Heterogeneity and network structure in the dynamics of diffusion: Comparing agent-based and differential equation models. Manage Sci. 2008;54(5):998-1014.
52. Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. Modeling the dynamics of oral poliovirus vaccine cessation. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S475-84.
53. Dunn G, Klapsa D, Wilton T, Stone L, Minor PD, Martin J. Twenty-eight years of poliovirus replication in an immunodeficient individual: Impact on the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. PLoS Pathog. 2015;11(8):e1005114.
54. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Thompson KM: Modeling the prevalence of immunodeficiency-associated long-term vaccine-derived poliovirus excretors and the potential benefits of antiviral drugs. doi: 10.1186/s12879-015-1115-5
55. Mulders MN, Reimerink JH, Koopmans MP, van Loon AM, van der Avoort HGAM. Genetic analysis of wild-type poliovirus importation into The Netherlands (1979-1995). J Infect Dis. 1997;176(3):617-24.
56. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; Monitoring current threats: ECDC Communicable Disease Threats Report (CDTR), week 37/2014. http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/press/news/_layouts/forms/News_DispForm.aspx?List=8db7286c-fe2d-476c-9133-18ff4cb1b568&ID=1065 . Accessed September 16 2015.
57. Alexander L, Birkhead G, Guerra F, Helms C, Hinman A, Katz S, et al. Ensuring preparedness for potential poliomyelitis outbreaks: Recommendations for the US poliovirus vaccine stockpile from the National Vaccine Advisory Committee (NVAC) and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Med. 2004;158(12):1106-12.
58. Thompson KM, Wallace GS, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Smith PH, Barskey AE, Pallansch MA, et al. Trends in the risk of U.S. polio outbreaks and poliovirus vaccine availability for response. Public Health Rep. 2012;127(1):23-37.
59. Oostvogel P, van Wijngaarden J, van der Avoort HG, Mulders MN, Conyn-van Spaendonck MA, Rümke H, et al. Poliomyelitis outbreak in an unvaccinated community in the Netherlands, 1992-3. Lancet. 1994;344(8923):665-70.
60. Miller MA, Sutter RW, Strebel PM, Hadler SC. Cost-effectiveness of incorporating inactivated poliovirus vaccine into the routine childhood immunization schedule. JAMA. 1996;276(12):967-71.
61. Thompson KM, Duintjer Tebbens RJ. Eradication versus control for poliomyelitis: An economic analysis. Lancet. 2007;369(9570):1363-71.
62. Musgrove P. Is polio eradication in the Americas economically justified? Bull Pan Am Health Organ. 1988;22(1):1-16.
63. Bart K, Foulds J, Patriarca P. Global eradication of poliomyelitis: benefit-cost analysis. Bull World Health Organ. 1996;74:35-45.
64. Kahn MM, Ehreth J. Costs and benefits of polio eradication: a long-run global perspective. Vaccine. 2003;21:702-5.
65. Aylward RB, Acharya AK, England S, Agocs M, Linkins J: Polio eradication. In: Global public goods for health: Health economic and public health perspectives. edn. Edited by Smith R, Beaglehole R, Woodward D, Drager N: Oxford University Press; 2003: 33-53.
66. Griffiths U, Botham L, Schoub BD. The cost-effectiveness of alternative polio immunization policies in South Africa. Vaccine. 2006;24:5670-8.
67. Tucker AW, Isaacs D, Burgess M. Cost-effectiveness of changing from live oral poliovirus vaccine to inactivated poliovirus vaccine in Australia. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2001;25(5):411-6.
68. Alvis N, De la Hoz F, Narvaez J. Economic impact of introducing the injectable inactivated polio vaccine in Colombia. Rev Panam Salud Publica. 2010;27(5):352-9.
69. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Alexander Jr JP, Thompson KM. Optimal vaccine stockpile design for an eradicated disease: Application to polio. Vaccine. 2010;28(26):4312-27.
70. Kalkowska DA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. Modeling strategies to increase population immunity and prevent poliovirus transmission in two high-risk areas in northern India. J Infect Dis. 2014;210 Suppl 1:S398-411.
71. Kalkowska DA, Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Thompson KM. The probability of undetected wild poliovirus circulation after apparent global interruption of transmission. Am J Epidemiol. 2012;175(9):936-49.
72. Duintjer Tebbens RJ, Pallansch MA, Wassilak SGF, Cochi SL, Thompson KM. Combinations of quality and frequency of immunization activities to stop and prevent poliovirus transmission in the high-risk area of northwest Nigeria. PLoS One. 2015;10(6):e0130123.
73. UNICEF; UNICEF Supply and Logistics - Vaccine price data. http://www.unicef.org/supply/index_57476.html . Accessed August 17 2013.
74. World Health Organization: WHO policy statement: Multi-dose vial policy (MDVP) - Revision 2014. Geneva, 2014; Report No.:WHO/IVB/14.07.