The contribution of mammography screening to breast cancer incidence trends in the United States: An updated age-period-cohort model

Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention

Volumn 24, Issue 6, 2015, Pages 905-912

  Gangnon, Ronald E ^a,b   Sprague, Brian L ^c   Stout, Natasha K ^d   Alagoz, Oguz ^b,e   Weedon Fekjær, Harald ^f   Holford, Theodore R ^g   Trentham Dietz, Amy ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT COLLEGE OF MEDICINE   (United States)

^d HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL   (United States)

^e University of Wisconsin Madison   (United States)

^f OSLO UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL   (Norway)

^g YALE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGE; AGED; ARTICLE; BREAST CANCER; CANCER INCIDENCE; CANCER SCREENING; COHORT ANALYSIS; CONTROLLED STUDY; FEMALE; HUMAN; INTRADUCTAL CARCINOMA; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MAMMOGRAPHY; MIDDLE AGED; POSTMENOPAUSE; PREMENOPAUSE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; UNITED STATES; YOUNG ADULT; BREAST NEOPLASMS; CANCER REGISTRY; CANCER STAGING; CARCINOMA, DUCTAL, BREAST; CARCINOMA, INTRADUCTAL, NONINFILTRATING; DIAGNOSTIC IMAGING; EARLY CANCER DIAGNOSIS; FOLLOW UP; PATHOLOGY; PROCEDURES; PROGNOSIS; RISK FACTOR; STATISTICAL MODEL; TIME FACTOR; VERY ELDERLY;

ADULT; AGE FACTORS; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; BREAST NEOPLASMS; CARCINOMA, DUCTAL, BREAST; CARCINOMA, INTRADUCTAL, NONINFILTRATING; COHORT STUDIES; EARLY DETECTION OF CANCER; FEMALE; FOLLOW-UP STUDIES; HUMANS; MAMMOGRAPHY; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; NEOPLASM STAGING; PROGNOSIS; RISK FACTORS; SEER PROGRAM; TIME FACTORS; UNITED STATES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84941767992     PISSN: 10559965     EISSN: 15387755     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-14-1286     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Sullivan PD, Christine B, Connelly R, Barrett H. Analysis of trends in ageadjusted incidence rates for 10 major sites of cancer. Am J Public Health 1972;62:1065-71.
2. Devesa SS, Silverman DT, Young JL Jr, Pollack ES, Brown CC, Horm JW, et al. Cancer incidence and mortality trends among whites in the United States, 1947-84. J Natl Cancer Inst 1987;79:701-70.
3. Miller BA, Feuer EJ, Hankey BF. Recent incidence trends for breast cancer in women and the relevance of early detection: an update. CA Cancer J Clin 1993;43:27-41.
4. Howlader N, Noone AM, Krapcho M, Neyman N, Aminou R, Altekruse SF, et al. SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975-2009 (Vintage 2009 Populations). [cited April 2012]. Available from: http://seercancergov/csr/1975-2009-pops09/, based on November 2011 SEER data submission, posted to the SEER web site.
5. Ravdin PM, Cronin KA, Howlader N, Berg CD, Chlebowski RT, Feuer EJ, et al. The decrease in breast-cancer incidence in 2003 in the United States. N Engl J Med 2007;356:1670-4.
6. Kerlikowske K, Miglioretti DL, Buist DS, Walker R, Carney PANational Cancer Institute-Sponsored Breast Cancer Surveillance C. Declines in invasive breast cancer and use of postmenopausal hormone therapy in a screening mammography population. J Natl Cancer Inst 2007; 99:1335-9.
7. Johnson RH, Chien FL, Bleyer A. Incidence of breast cancer with distant involvement among women in the United States, 1976 to 2009. JAMA 2013;309:800-5.
8. Welch HG, Passow HJ. Quantifying the benefits and harms of screening mammography. JAMA Intern Med 2014;174:448-54.
9. Rosenberg PS, Anderson WF. Age-period-cohort models in cancer surveillance research: ready for prime time? Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2011;20:1263-8.
10. Holford TR, Cronin KA, Mariotto AB, Feuer EJ. Changing patterns in breast cancer incidence trends. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006:19-25.
11. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program [database on the Internet]. Research Data (1973-2010), National Cancer Institute, DCCPS, Surveillance Research Program, Surveillance Systems Branch. [released April 2013, based on the November 2012 submission]. Available from: www.seer.cancer.gov
12. R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL, 2012. Available from: http://www.R-project.org/: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
13. Venables WN, Ripley BD. Modern Applied Statistics with S. Fourth Edition. New York: Springer; 2002. ISBN 0-387-95457-0.
14. Carstensen B. Age-period-cohort models for the lexis diagram. Stat Med 2007;26:3018-45.
15. Schwarz GE. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat 1978;6:461-4.
16. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ. An Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York: Chapman & Hall; 1993.
17. Puliti D, Duffy SW, Miccinesi G, de Koning H, Lynge E, Zappa M, et al. Overdiagnosis in mammographic screening for breast cancer in Europe: a literature review. J Med Screen 2012;19 Suppl 1:42-56.
18. Independent U. K. Panel on Breast Cancer Screening. The benefits and harms of breast cancer screening: an independent review. Lancet 2012; 380:1778-86.
19. Biesheuvel C, Barratt A, Howard K, Houssami N, Irwig L. Effects of study methods and biases on estimates of invasive breast cancer overdetection with mammography screening: a systematic review. Lancet Oncol 2007; 8:1129-38.
20. Bleyer A, Welch HG. Effect of three decades of screening mammography on breast-cancer incidence. N Engl J Med 2012;367:1998-2005.
21. Etzioni R, Gulati R, Mallinger L, Mandelblatt J. Influence of study features and methods on overdiagnosis estimates in breast and prostate cancer screening. Ann Intern Med 2013;158:831-8.
22. de Gelder R, Heijnsdijk EA, van Ravesteyn NT, Fracheboud J, Draisma G, de Koning HJ. Interpreting overdiagnosis estimates in population-based mammography screening. Epidemiol Rev 2011;33:111-21.
23. Betsill WL Jr, Byrd BF Jr, Hartmann WH. Breast cancer report. Cancer 1975;36:305-7.
24. Sprague BL, Trentham-Dietz A, Cronin KA. A sustained decline in postmenopausal hormone use: results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2010. Obstet Gynecol 2012;120:595-603.
25. Clemmensen J. Carcinoma of the breast: results from statistical research. Br J Radiol 1948;21:583-90.
26. Wong IO, Cowling BJ, Schooling CM, Leung GM. Age-period-cohort projections of breast cancer incidence in a rapidly transitioning Chinese population. Int J Cancer 2007;121:1556-63.
27. Rostgaard K, Vaeth M, Holst H, Madsen M, Lynge E. Age-period-cohort modelling of breast cancer incidence in the Nordic countries. Stat Med 2001;20:47-61.
28. Viel JF, Rymzhanova R, Fournier E, Danzon A. Trends in invasive breast cancer incidence among French women not exposed to organized mammography screening: an age-period-cohort analysis. Cancer Epidemiol 2011;35:521-5.
29. Shen YC, Chang CJ, Hsu C, Cheng CC, Chiu CF, Cheng AL. Significant difference in the trends of female breast cancer incidence between Taiwanese and Caucasian Americans: implications from age-period-cohort analysis. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2005;14:1986-90.
30. Ito Y, Ioka A, Nakayama T, Tsukuma H, Nakamura T. Comparison of trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Osaka, Japan, using an age-periodcohort model. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev 2011;12:879-88.
31. Dhillon PK, Yeole BB, Dikshit R, Kurkure AP, Bray F. Trends in breast, ovarian and cervical cancer incidence in Mumbai, India over a 30-year period, 1976-2005: an age-period-cohort analysis. Br J Cancer 2011;105: 723-30.
32. MistryM, Parkin DM, Ahmad AS, Sasieni P. Cancer incidence in the United Kingdom: projections to the year 2030. Br J Cancer 2011;105:1795-803.
33. Taylor R, Boyages J. Estimating risk of breast cancer from population incidence affected by widespread mammographic screening. J Med Screen 2001;8:73-6.
34. Moller B, Weedon-Fekjaer H, Hakulinen T, Tryggvadottir L, Storm HH, Talback M, et al. The influence of mammographic screening on national trends in breast cancer incidence. Eur J Cancer Prev 2005;14:117-28.
35. Persson I, Bergstrom R, Sparen P, Thorn M, Adami HO. Trends in breast cancer incidence in Sweden 1958-1988 by time period and birth cohort. Br J Cancer 1993;68:1247-53.
36. Minami Y, Tsubono Y, Nishino Y, Ohuchi N, Shibuya D, Hisamichi S. The increase of female breast cancer incidence in Japan: emergence of birth cohort effect. Int J Cancer 2004;108:901-6.
37. Sim X, Ali RA, Wedren S, Goh DL, Tan CS, Reilly M, et al. Ethnic differences in the time trend of female breast cancer incidence: Singapore, 1968-2002. BMC Cancer 2006;6:261.
38. Wakai K, Suzuki S, Ohno Y, Kawamura T, Tamakoshi A, Aoki R. Epidemiology of breast cancer in Japan. Int J Epidemiol 1995;24:285-91.
39. Seow A, Duffy SW, McGee MA, Lee J, Lee HP. Breast cancer in Singapore: trends in incidence 1968-1992. Int J Epidemiol 1996;25:40-5.
40. Wang PP, Cao Y. Incidence trends of female breast cancer in Saskatchewan, 1932-1990. Breast Cancer Res Treat 1996;37:197-207.
41. Chia KS, Reilly M, Tan CS, Lee J, Pawitan Y, Adami HO, et al. Profound changes in breast cancer incidence may reflect changes into a Westernized lifestyle: a comparative population-based study in Singapore and Sweden. Int J Cancer 2005;113:302-6.
42. Wun LM, Feuer EJ, Miller BA. Are increases in mammographic screening still a valid explanation for trends in breast cancer incidence in the United States? Cancer Causes Control 1995;6:135-44.
43. Wysowski DK, Golden L, Burke L. Use of menopausal estrogens and medroxyprogesterone in the United States, 1982-1992. Obstet Gynecol 1995;85:6-10.
44. Hemminki E, Kennedy DL, Baum C, McKinlay SM. Prescribing of noncontraceptive estrogens and progestins in the United States, 1974-86.AmJ Public Health 1988;78:1479-81.
45. Kennedy DL, Baum C, Forbes MB. Noncontraceptive estrogens and progestins: use patterns over time. Obstet Gynecol 1985;65:441-6.
46. Glass AG, Lacey JV Jr, Carreon JD, Hoover RN. Breast cancer incidence, 1980-2006: combined roles of menopausal hormone therapy, screening mammography, and estrogen receptor status. J Natl Cancer Inst 2007;99: 1152-61.
47. Weedon-Fekjaer H, Bakken K, Vatten LJ, Tretli S. Understanding recent trends in incidence of invasive breast cancer in Norway: age-period-cohort analysis based on registry data on mammography screening and hormone treatment use. BMJ 2012;344:e299.
48. Ljungvall A, Zimmerman FJ. Bigger bodies: long-term trends and disparities in obesity and body-mass index among U.S. adults, 1960-2008. Soc Sci Med 2012;75:109-19.
49. Chang Y, Schechter CB, van Ravesteyn NT, Near AM, Heijnsdijk EA, Adams-Campbell L, et al. Collaborative modeling of the impact of obesity on racespecific breast cancer incidence and mortality. Breast Cancer Res Treat 2012;136:823-35.
50. Mandelblatt J, van Ravesteyn N, Schechter C, Chang Y, Huang AT, Near AM, et al. Which strategies reduce breast cancer mortality most? Collaborative modeling of optimal screening, treatment, and obesity prevention. Cancer 2013;119:2541-8.
51. US Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, Surveillance Research Branch. CISNET Publication Support and Modeling Resources: Publication extensions and other model related resources. [cited 2015 April 15]. Available from: https://resources.cisnet.cancer.gov/projects/#bcr/apc/summary.
52. US Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results: Overview of the SEER Program. [cited May 28, 2013]. Available from: http://seer.cancer.gov/about/overview.html.
53. Cronin KA, Mariotto AB, Clarke LD, Feuer EJ. Additional common inputs for analyzing impact of adjuvant therapy and mammography on U.S. mortality. J Natl Cancer Inst Monogr 2006:26-9.
54. Lantz PM, Remington PL, Newcomb PA. Mammography screening and increased incidence of breast cancer in Wisconsin. J Natl Cancer Inst 1991;83:1540-6.