Mitigation of agricultural emissions in the tropics: Comparing forest land-sparing options at the national level

Biogeosciences

Volumn 12, Issue 15, 2015, Pages 4809-4825

  Carter, S ^a,c   Herold, M ^a   Rufino, M C ^b   Neumann, K ^a,d   Kooistra, L ^a   Verchot, L ^c  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)   (Kenya)

^c CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FORESTRY RESEARCH   (Indonesia)

^d HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL EMISSION; AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION; AGRICULTURAL LAND; ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK; DECISION MAKING; DEFORESTATION; EMISSION CONTROL; LAND USE CHANGE; MITIGATION; NATIONAL STRATEGY; RISK ASSESSMENT; TROPICAL REGION;

EID: 84938933926     PISSN: 17264170     EISSN: 17264189     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/bg-12-4809-2015     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Achard, F., Beuchle, R., Mayaux, P., Stibig, H. J., Bodart, C., Brink, A., Carboni, S., Desclée, B., Donnay, F., Eva, H. D., Lupi, A., Raši, R., Seliger, R. and Simonetti, D.: Determination of tropical deforestation rates and related carbon losses from 1990 to 2010, Glob. Chang. Biol., 20, 2540-2554, 2014.
2. Alexandratos, N. and Bruinsma, J.: World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050 The 2012 Revision, Rome, Italy, 147 pp., 2012.
3. Angelsen, A.: Moving Ahead with REDD Issues, Options and Implications, edited by A. Angelsen, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor, Indonesia, 156 pp., 2008.
4. Angelsen, A.: Policies for reduced deforestation and their impact on agricultural production., P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19639-19644, 2010.
5. Angelsen, A., Brockhaus, M., Sunderlin, W., and Verchot, L.: Analysing REDDC: Challenges and choices, CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia, 426 pp., 2012.
6. Baccini, A., Goetz, S. J., Walker, W. S., Laporte, N. T., Sun, M., Sulla-Menashe, D., Hackler, J., Beck, P. S. A., Dubayah, R., Friedl, M. A., Samanta, S., and Houghton, R. A.: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps, Nature Climate Change, 2, 182-185, 2012.
7. Baede, A., van der Linden, P., and Verbruggen, A.: Annex to IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Geneva, Switzerland, 76-79, 2007.
8. Bajzelj, B., Richards, K. S., Allwood, J. M., Smith, P., Dennis, J. S., Curmi, E., and Gilligan, C. A.: Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation, Nature Climate Change, 4, 924-929, 2014.
9. Borlaug, N.: Feeding a Hungry World, Science, 318, 359, 2007.
10. Burney, J. A., Davis, S. J., and Lobell, D. B.: Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification., P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 12052-12057, 2010.
11. Byerlee, D., Stevenson, J., and Villoria, N.: Does intensification slow crop land expansion or encourage deforestation?, Glob. Food Sec., 3, 92-98, 2014.
12. Campbell, J. E., Lobell, D. B., Genova, R. C., and Field, C. B.: The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands, Environ. Sci. Technol., 42, 5791-5794, 2008.
13. Cardona, O., van Aalst, M., Birkmann, J., Fordham, M., McGregor, G., Perez, R., Pulwarty, R. S., Schipper, E. L. F., and Sinh, B. T.: Determinants of Risk?: Exposure and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 65-108, 2012.
14. Cassman, K. G.: Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 96, 5952-5959, 1999.
15. Cattaneo, A.: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Technology, Migration and Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, 9-90, CABI, Wallingford, UK, 2001.
16. Cohn, A., Bowman, M., Zilberman, D., and O'Neill, K.: The Viability of Cattle Ranching Intensification in Brazil as a Strategy to Spare Land and Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Copenhagen, Denmark, 39 pp., 2011.
17. Creed, A., Strassburg, B., and Latawiec, A.: Agricultural Expansion and REDD+: An Assessment of the Risks and Considerations to inform REDD+ and Land Use Policy Design, Washington, DC, 6 pp., 2010.
18. Dalla-Nora, E. L., de Aguiar, A. P. D., Lapola, D. M., and Woltjer, G.: Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?, Land Use Policy, 39, 403-411, 2014.
19. DeFries, R., Herold, M., Verchot, L., Macedo, M. N., and Shimabukuro, Y.: Export-oriented deforestation in Mato Grosso?: harbinger or exception for other tropical forests?, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B, 368, 1-8, 2013.
20. Droogers, P., Seckler, D., and Makin, I.: Estimating the Potential of Rain-fed Agriculture, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 14 pp., 2001.
21. Duwayri, M., Tran, D. Van, and Nguyen, V. N.: Reflections on yield gaps in rice production: how to narrow the gaps, FAO Regional office for Asia and the Pacific, Rome, Italy, 61 pp., 2000.
22. Eitelberg, D. a., van Vliet, J., and Verburg, P. H.: A review of global potentially available cropland estimates and their consequences for model-based assessments, Glob. Chang. Biol., 21, 1236-1248, 2015.
23. ESA: Land Cover State 2010 (2008-2012) 300m v1.1, Paris, France, 2013.
24. Fader, M., Gerten, D., Krause, M., Lucht, W., and Cramer, W.: Spatial decoupling of agricultural production and consumption: quantifying dependences of countries on food imports due to domestic land and water constraints, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 1-15, 2013.
25. FAO: Global Forest Resources Assessment: Main report, FAO Forestry Paper 163, Rome, 340 pp., 2010.
26. FAO: Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook, Rome, Italy, 557 pp., 2013.
27. FAO: FAOSTAT glossary, available at: http://faostat.fao.org/site/375/default.aspx (last access: 18 March 2015), 2014a.
28. FAO: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations statisitical database, available at: http://faostat3.fao.org/home/index.html (last access: 18 March 2015), 2014b.
29. FAO & JRC: Global forest land-use change 1990-2005, Rome, Italy, 40 pp., 2012.
30. Fischer, G., Nachtergaele, F., Prieler, S., Velthuizen, H. T. van, Verelst, L., and Wiberg, D.: GAEZ v3.0., 179 pp., 2008.
31. Foley, J. A, Ramankutty, N., Brauman, K. A, Cassidy, E. S., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Mueller, N. D., O'Connell, C., Ray, D. K., West, P. C., Balzer, C., Bennett, E. M., Carpenter, S. R., Hill, J., Monfreda, C., Polasky, S., Rockström, J., Sheehan, J., Siebert, S., Tilman, D., and Zaks, D. P. M.: Solutions for a cultivated planet, Nature, 478, 337-342, 2011.
32. Frieler, K., Levermann, A., Elliott, J., Heinke, J., Arneth, A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Deryng, D., Döll, P., Falloon, P., Fekete, B., F olberth, C., Friend, A. D., Gellhorn, C., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Neumann, K., Oki, T., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schmid, E., Schmitz, C., Stacke, T., Stehfest, E., Tang, Q., Wisser, D., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., Lotze-Campen, H., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447-460, doi:10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015.
33. Garnett, T.: Climate change and agriculture: Can market governance mechanisms reduce emissions from the food system fairly and effectively?, International Institute for Environment and Development, London, 71 pp., 2012.
34. Garnett, T., Appleby, M. C., Balmford, A., Bateman, I. J., Benton, T. G., Bloomer, P., Burlingame, B., Dawkins, M., Dolan, L., Fraser, D., Herrero, M., Hoffmann, I., Smith, P., Thornton, P. K., Toulmin, C., Vermeulen, S. J., and Godfray, H. C. J.: Sustainable Intensification in Agriculture: Premises and Policies, Science, 341, 33-34, 2013.
35. Gibbs, H. K., Ruesch, A. S., Achard, F., Clayton, M. K., Holmgren, P., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. a: Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 16732-16737, 2010.
36. Grieg-Gran, M.: Beyond forestry: why agriculture is key to the success of REDD+, London, UK, 4 pp., 2010.
37. Gutiérrez-Vélez, V. H., DeFries, R., Pinedo-Vásquez, M., Uriarte, M., Padoch, C., Baethgen,W., Fernandes, K., and Lim, Y.: High-yield oil palm expansion spares land at the expense of forests in the Peruvian Amazon, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 1-5, 2011.
38. Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P. V, Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S. A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S. V, Goetz, S. J., Loveland, T., Kommareddy, A., Egorov, A., Chini, L., Justice, C. O., and Townshend, J.: High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science, 342, 850-853, 2013.
39. Harris, N. L., Brown, S., Hagen, S. C., Saatchi, S. S., Petrova, S., Salas,W., Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P. V., and Lotsch, A.: Baseline map of carbon emissions from deforestation in tropical regions, Science, 336, 1573-1576, 2012.
40. Hergoualc'h, K. and Verchot, L. V.: Greenhouse gas emission factors for land use and land-use change in Southeast Asian peatlands, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang., 19, 789-807, 2013.
41. Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., Angelsen, A., and Romijn, E.: An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 1-12, 2012.
42. Ickowitz, A., Slayback, D., Asanzi, P., and Nasi, R.: Agriculture and deforestation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A synthesis of the current state of knowledge, Bogor, Indonesia, 18 pp., 2015.
43. IPCC: Technical Summary: Working Group III contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report "Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change.", 99 pp., 2014.
44. Van Ittersum, M. K., Cassman, K. G., Grassini, P., Wolf, J., Tittonell, P., and Hochman, Z.: Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance - A review, F. Crop. Res., 143, 4-7, 2013.
45. IUCN UNEP-WCMC: The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA), Aaailable at: www.protectedplanet.net (last access: 18 March 2015), 2014.
46. Kaimowitz, D. and Angelsen, A.: Economic Models of Tropical Deforestation A Review, Bogor, Indonesia, 139 pp., 1998.
47. Kastner, T., Rivas, M. J. I., Koch, W., and Nonhebel, S.: Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 6868-6872, 2012.
48. Kissinger, G., Herold, M., and De Sy, V.: Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: A Synthesis Report for REDD+ Policymakers, Vancouver, Canada, 12 pp., 2012.
49. Köthke, M., Schröppel, B., and Elsasser, P.: National REDD + reference levels deduced from the global deforestation curve, For. Policy Econ., 43, 18-28, 2014.
50. Lambin, E. F., Gibbs, H. K., Ferreira, L., Grau, R., Mayaux, P., Meyfroidt, P., Morton, D. C., Rudel, T. K., Gasparri, I., and Munger, J.: Estimating the world's potentially available cropland using a bottom-up approach, Glob. Environ. Chang., 23, 892-901, 2013.
51. Mbow, C.: Africa's risky gamble, Glob. Chang., June, 20-23, 2010.
52. Mbow, C.: Examining the deforestation paradox for climate change mitigation in Africa, available at: http://cdkn.org/2014/09/examining-deforestation-mitigation-in-africa (last access: 15 July 2015), 2014.
53. Meyfroidt, P. and Lambin, E. F.: Global Forest Transition: Prospects for an End to Deforestation, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 36, 343-371, 2011.
54. Minang, P., Bernard, F., van Noordwijk, M., and Kahurani, E.: Agroforestry in REDD+: Opportunities and Challenges, Nairobi, Kenya, 4 pp., 2011.
55. Mokany, K., Raison, R. J., and Prokushkin, A. S.: Critical analysis of root?: shoot ratios in terrestrial biomes, Glob. Chang. Biol., 12, 84-96, 2006.
56. Monfreda, C., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. A.: Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 22, 1-19, 2008.
57. Neumann, K., Verburg, P. H., Stehfest, E., and Müller, C.: The yield gap of global grain production: A spatial analysis, Agric. Syst., 103, 316-326, 2010.
58. Peskett, L. and Todd, K.: Putting REDD+ Safeguards and Safeguard Information Systems Into Practice, 10 pp., 2013.
59. Romijn, E., Herold, M., Kooistra, L., Murdiyarso, D., and Verchot, L.: Assessing capacities of non-Annex I countries for national forest monitoring in the context of REDD+, Environ. Sci. Policy, 19-20, 33-48, 2012.
60. Roos, E.: Land husbandry Components and strategy, Rome, Italy, 344 pp., 1996.
61. Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K. J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., Neumann, K., Piontek, F., Pugh, T. A. M., Schmid, E., Stehfest, E., Yang, H., and Jones, J. W.: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3268-73, 2014.
62. Rudel, T. K., Schneider, L., Uriarte, M., Turner, B. L., DeFries, R., Lawrence, D., Geoghegan, J., Hecht, S., Ickowitz, A., Lambin, E. F., Birkenholtz, T., Baptista, S., and Grau, R.: Agricultural intensification and changes in cultivated areas, 1970-2005, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 20675-20680, 2009.
63. Saatchi, S. S., Harris, N. L., Brown, S., Lefsky, M., Mitchard, E. T. a, Salas, W., Zutta, B. R., Buermann, W., Lewis, S. L., Hagen, S., Petrova, S., White, L., Silman, M., and Morel, A.: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 9899-9904, 2011.
64. Salvini, G., Herold, M., De Sy, V., Kissinger, G., Brockhaus, M., and Skutsch, M.: How countries link REDD+ interventions to drivers in their readiness plans: implications for monitoring systems, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 1-12, 2014.
65. Sands, R. D. and Leimbach, M.: Modeling Agriculture and Land Use in an Integrated Framework, Clim. Change, 56, 185-210, 2003.
66. Santilli, M., Moutinho, P., Schwartzman, S., Nepstad, D., Curran, L., and Nobre, C.: Tropical Deforestation and the Kyoto Protocol, Clim. Change, 71, 267-276, 2005.
67. Searchinger, T. D., Estes, L., Thornton, P. K., Beringer, T., Notenbaert, A., Rubenstein, D., Heimlich, R., Licker, R., and Herrero, M.: High carbon and biodiversity costs from converting Africa's wet savannahs to cropland, Nature Climate Change, 5, 481-486, 2015.
68. Smith, P., Haberl, H., Popp, A., Erb, K.-H., Lauk, C., Harper, R., Tubiello, F. N., de Siqueira Pinto, A., Jafari, M., Sohi, S., Masera, O., Böttcher, H., Berndes, G., Bustamante, M., Ahammad, H., Clark, H., Dong, H., Elsiddig, E. a, Mbow, C., Ravindranath, N. H., Rice, C.W., Robledo Abad, C., Romanovskaya, A., Sperling, F., Herrero, M., House, J. I., and Rose, S.: How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?, Glob. Chang. Biol., 19, 2285-2302, 2013.
69. Smith, P., Martino, D., Cai, Z., Gwary, D., Janzen, H., Kumar, P., McCarl, B., Ogle, S., O'Mara, F., Rice, C., Scholes, B., Sirotenko, O., Howden, M., McAllister, T., Pan, G., Romanenkov, V., Schneider, U., Towprayoon, S., Wattenbach, M., and Smith, J.: Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture., Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci., 363, 789-813, 2008.
70. Stevenson, J. R., Villoria, N., Byerlee, D., Kelley, T., and Maredia, M.: Green Revolution research saved an estimated 18 to 27 million hectares from being brought into agricultural production, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 8363-9368, 2013.
71. Tubiello, F. N., Salvatore, M., Ferrara, A. F., House, J., Federici, S., Rossi, S., Biancalani, R., Condor Golec, R. D., Jacobs, H., Flammini, A., Prosperi, P., Cardenas-Galindo, P., Schmidhuber, J., Sanz Sanchez, M. J., Srivastava, N., and Smith, P.: The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990-2012, Glob. Chang. Biol., 21, 2655-2660, 2015.
72. UNFCCC: UNFCCC REDD+, available at: http://unfccc.int/methods/redd/items/7377.php (last access: 18 March 2015), 2013.
73. West, P. C., Gibbs, H. K., Monfreda, C., Wagner, J., Barford, C. C., Carpenter, S. R., and Foley, J. a: Trading carbon for food: global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 107, 19645-19648, 2010.
74. Wilkes, A., Tennigkeit, T., and Solymosi, K.: National integrated mitigation planning in agriculture?: A review paper, Rome, Italy, 53 pp., 2013.
75. World Bank: The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), available at: www.govindicators.org (last access: 18 March 2015), 2012.
76. World Bank: Open Data, available at: http://data.worldbank.org/ (last access: 18 March 2015), 2013.
77. WWF: Selection of terrestrial ecoregions, available at: http://wwf.panda.org/about-our-earth/ecoregions/about/habitat-types/selecting-terrestrial-ecoregions/ (last access: 18 March 2015), 2013.
78. Zolkos, S. G., Goetz, S. J., and Dubayah, R.: A meta-analysis of terrestrial aboveground biomass estimation using lidar remote sensing, Remote Sens. Environ., 128, 289-298, 2013.