Improved modelling of the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetland plant communities

Hydrobiologia

Volumn 774, Issue 1, 2016, Pages 203-216

  Ward, R D ^a   Burnside, N G ^a   Joyce, C B ^a   Sepp, K ^b   Teasdale, P A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRIGHTON   (United Kingdom)

^b ESTONIAN UNIVERSITY OF LIFE SCIENCES   (Estonia)

Author keywords

Climate change impacts; Coastal plant communities; Coastal wetlands; LiDAR; Sea level rise modelling tool

Indexed keywords

ACCRETION; ALLOCHTHONY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; COASTAL WETLAND; DGPS; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; GLOBAL OCEAN; LIDAR; MODEL VALIDATION; PLANT COMMUNITY; SEA LEVEL CHANGE;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; BALTIC SEA; ESTONIA;

EID: 84938544977     PISSN: 00188158     EISSN: 15735117     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10750-015-2374-2     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Aitken, S., S. Yeaman, J. Holliday, T. Wang & S. Curtis-McLane, 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evolutionary Applications 1(1): 95–111.
2. Allen, J., 2000. Morphodynamics of Holocene salt marshes: a review sketch from the Atlantic and Southern North Sea coasts of Europe. Quaternary Science Reviews 19(12): 1155–1231.
3. Allen, J. & K. Pye, 1998. Saltmarshes: Morphodynamics, Conservation and Engineering Significance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
4. Barbier, E., S. Hacker, C. Kennedy, E. Koch, A. Stier & B. Silliman, 2011. The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Ecological Monographs 81: 169–193.
5. Bellafiore, D., M. Gezzo, D. Tagliapietra & G. Umgiesser, 2014. Climate change and artificial barrier effects on the Venice Lagoon: inundation dynamics of salt marshes and implications for halophytes distribution. Ocean and Coastal Management 100: 101–115.
6. Bender, M. A., T. R. Knutson, R. E. Tuleya, J. J. Sirutis, G. A. Vecchi, S. T. Garner & I. M. Held, 2010. Modelled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science 327: 454–458.
7. Bertrand, R., J. Lenoir, C. Piedallu, G. Riofrio-Dillon, P. de Ruffray, C. Vidal, J. Pierrat & J. Gegout, 2011. Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests. Nature 479: 517–520.
8. Burnside, N., C. Joyce, E. Puurman & D. Scott, 2007. Use of vegetation classification and plant indicators to assess grazing abandonment in Estonian coastal wetlands. Journal of Vegetation Science 18: 645–654.
9. Burnside, N. & S. Waite, 2011. Predictive modelling of biogeographical phenomena. In Millington, A., M. Blumler & U. Schikhoff (eds), The SAGE handbook of biogeography. SAGE Publications Ltd, New York.
10. Butzeck, C., A. Eschenbach, A. Grongroft, K. Hansen, S. Nolte & K. Jensen, 2015. Sediment deposition and accretion rates in tidal marshes are highly variable along estuarine salinity and flooding gradient. Estuaries and Coasts 38: 434–450.
11. Chust, G., I. Galparsoro, A. Borja, J. Franco & A. Uriarte, 2008. Coastal and estuarine habitat mapping, using LIDAR height and intensity and multispectral imagery. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 78: 633–643.
12. Craft, C., J. Clough, J. Ehman, S. Joye, R. Park, S. Pennings, H. Guo & M. Machmuller, 2009. Forecasting the effects of accelerated sea-level rise on tidal marsh ecosystem services. Frontiers of the Ecological Environment 7(2): 73–78.
13. Cutini, M., E. Agostinelli, T. Acosta & J. Molina, 2010. Coastal salt marsh zonation in Tyrrhenian central Italy and its relationship with other Mediterranean wetlands. Botanica Italiana 144: 1–11.
14. Dullinger, S., T. Dirnböck & G. Grabherr, 2004. Modelling climate change-driven treeline shifts: relative effects of temperature increase, dispersal and invisibility. Journal of Ecology 92(2): 241–252.
15. EC habitat directive 92/43/EEC http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CONSLEG:1992L0043:20070101:EN:PDF.
16. Ellenberg, H., 1988. Vegetation ecology of central Europe. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
17. Eronen, M., G. Glückert, L. Hatakka, O. van de Plassche, J. van der Plicht & P. Rantala, 2001. Rates of Holocene isostatic uplift and relative sea-level lowering of the Baltic in SW Finland based on studies of isolation contacts. Boreas 30: 17–30.
18. Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (EMHI) 2012. Monthly and Annual Summaries of Precipitation and Sea Level. http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=6.Accessed February 2012.
19. Franklin, J., 1995. Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography 19(4): 474–499.
20. French, J., 2006. Tidal marsh sedimentation and resilience to environmental change: exploratory modelling of tidal, sea-level and sediment supply forcing in predominantly allochthonous systems. Marine Geology 235: 119–136.
21. Friedrichs, C. & J. Perry, 2001. Tidal Salt Marsh Morphodynamics: A Synthesis. Journal of Coastal Research 27: 7–37.
22. Gedan, K., M. Kirwan, E. Wolanski, E. Barbier & B. Silliman, 2011. The present and future role of coastal wetland vegetation in protecting shorelines: answering recent challenges to the paradigm. Climatic Change 106: 7–29.
23. Gesch, D., 2009. Analysis of Lidar elevation data for improved identification and delineation of lands vulnerable to sea-level rise. Journal of Coastal Research 53: 49–58.
24. Hilyer, R. & M. Silman, 2010. Changes in species interactions across a 2.5 km elevation gradient: effects on plant migration in response to climate change. Global Change Biology 16(2): 3205–3214.
25. Hopkinson, C., W. Cai & X. Hu, 2012. Carbon sequestration in wetland dominated coastal systems: a global sink of rapidly diminishing magnitude. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4(2): 186–194.
26. IPCC, 2013. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
27. Isacch, J. P., C. S. B. Costa, L. Rodríguez-Gallego, D. Conde, M. Escapa, D. A. Gagliardini & O. Iribarne, 2006. Distribution of saltmarsh plant communities associated with environmental factors along a latitudinal gradient on the south–west Atlantic coast. Journal of Biogeography 33: 888–900.
28. Kirwan, M. & S. Temmerman, 2009. Coastal marsh response to historical and future sea-level acceleration. Quaternary Science Reviews 28(17–18): 1801–1808.
29. Kolker, A., S. Goodbred, S. Hameed & J. Cochran, 2009. High resolution records of the response of coastal wetland systems to long term and short term sea level variability. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 84(4): 493–508.
30. Kont, A., J. Jaagus, R. Aunap, U. Ratas & R. Rivis, 2008. Implications of sea-level rise for Estonia. Journal of Coastal Research 24(2): 423–431.
31. Landis, J. R. & G. G. Koch, 1977. The measurement of observer agreement for categorical data. Biometrics 33: 159–174.
32. McFadden, L., T. Spencer & R. Nicholls, 2007. Broad-scale modelling of coastal wetlands: what is required? Hydrobiologia 577: 5–15.
33. Moeslund, J., L. Arge, P. Bocher, B. Nygaard & J. Svenning, 2011. Geographically comprehensive assessment of salt meadow vegetation–elevation relations using LiDAR. Wetlands 31(3): 471–482.
34. Moffett, K., S. Gorelick, R. McLaren & E. Sudicky, 2012. Salt marsh ecohydrological zonation due to heterogeneous vegetation–groundwater–surface water interactions. Water Resources Research 48: W02516.
35. Moffett, K., D. Robinson & S. Gorelick, 2010. Relationship of salt marsh vegetation zonation to spatial patterns in soil moisture, salinity and topography. Ecosystems 13: 1287–1302.
36. Morris, J., D. Porter, M. Neet, P. Noble, L. Schmidt, L. Lapine & J. Jensen, 2005. Integrating LiDAR elevation data, multispectral imagery and neural network modelling for marsh characterisation. International Journal of Remote Sensing 26(23): 5221–5234.
37. Mudd, S., S. Howell & J. Morris, 2009. Impact of dynamic feedbacks between sedimentation, sea-level rise, and biomass production on near-surface marsh stratigraphy and carbon accumulation. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 82(3): 377–389.
38. Nicholls, R. & A. Cazenave, 2010. Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science 328(5985): 1517–1520.
39. Nolte, S., E. Koppenaal, P. Esselink, K. Dijkema, M. Schuerch, A. V. De Groot, J. Bakker & S. Temmerman, 2013. Measuring sedimentation in tidal marshes: a review on methods and their applicability in biogeomorphological studies. Journal of Coastal Conservation 17: 301–325.
40. Nottage, A. & P. Robertson, 2005. The saltmarsh creation handbook: a project managers guide to the creation of saltmarsh and intertidal mudflat. RSPB, UK.
41. Pennings, S., E. Selig, L. Houser & M. Bertness, 2003. Geographic variation in positive and negative interactions among salt marsh plants. Ecology 84(6): 1527–1538.
42. Poulter, B. & P. Halpin, 2008. Raster modelling of coastal flooding from sea level rise. International Journal of Geographic Information Science 22(2): 167–182.
43. Puurmann, E. & U. Ratas, 1998. The formation, vegetation and management of sea shore grasslands in west Estonia. In Joyce, C. & M. Wade (eds), European wet grasslands: biodiversity, management and restoration. Wiley, Chichester: 97–110.
44. Rodwell, J., 1992. British plant communities, Vol. III. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
45. Rozynski, G. & Z. Pruszak, 2010. Long term rise of storminess of the Baltic Sea near Poland; possible origin and consequences. Ocean Engineering 37: 186–199.
46. Sadro, S., M. Gastil-Buhl & J. Melack, 2007. Characterising patterns of plant distribution in a southern California salt marsh using remotely sensed topographic and hyperspectral data and local tide fluctuations. Remote Sensing of the Environment 110: 226–239.
47. Schuerch, M., J. Rapaglia, V. Liebetrau, A. Vafeidis & K. Reise, 2012. Salt marsh accretion and storm tide variation: an example from a barrier island in the North Sea. Estuaries and Coasts 35: 486–500.
48. Schuerch, M., A. Vafeidis, T. Slawig & S. Temmerman, 2013. Modeling the influence of changing storm patterns on the ability of a salt marsh to keep pace with sea level rise. Journal of Geophysical Research 118: 84–96.
49. Schindler, M., V. Karius, A. Arns, M. Deicke & H. von Eynatten, 2014. Measuring sediment deposition and accretion on anthropogenic marshland – part II: the adaptation capacity of the North Frisian Halligen to sea level rise. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 151(5): 246–255.
50. Stratonovitch, P., J. Storkey & M. Semenov, 2012. A process-based approach to modelling impacts of climate change on the damage niche of an agricultural weed. Global Change Biology 18(6): 2071–2080.
51. Suchrow, S. & K. Jensen, 2010. Plant species responses to an elevational gradient in German North Sea salt marshes. Wetlands 30: 735–746.
52. Suursaar, Ü., A. Kont, J. Jaagus, K. Orviku, U. Ratas, R. Rivis & T. Kullas, 2006. SLR scenarios induced by climate change, and their consequences for the Estonian seacoast. Risk analysis IV: Fourth International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation: International conference on computer simulation in risk analysis and hazard mitigation. WIT Press, USA: 333–343.
53. Suursaar, U., T. Kullas & M. Otsmann, 2001. A model study of the sea level variations in the Gulf of Riga and the Väinameri Sea. Continental Shelf Research 22: 2001–2019.
54. Tsompanglou, K., I. Croudace, H. Birch & M. Collins, 2012. Geochemical and radiochronological evidence of North Sea storm surges in salt marsh cores from The Wash embayment (UK). The Holocene 21(2): 225–236.
55. Tweel, A. & E. Turner, 2014. Contribution of tropical cyclones to the sediment budget for coastal wetlands in Louisiana, USA. Landscape Ecology 29(6): 1083–1094.
56. Vallner, L., H. Sildvee & A. Torim, 1988. Recent crustal movements in Estonia. Journal of Geodynamics 9: 215–223.
57. Ward, R. 2012. Landscape and ecological modelling: development of a plant community prediction tool for Estonian coastal wetlands. Doctoral Thesis, University of Brighton (unpublished).
58. Ward, R., N. Burnside, C. Joyce & K. Sepp, 2010. A study into the effects of micro-topography and edaphic factors on vegetation community structure. In: Future Landscape Ecology. IALEUK, UK: 32–36.
59. Ward, R., N. Burnside, C. Joyce & K. Sepp, 2013. The use of medium point density LiDAR elevation data to determine plant community types in Baltic coastal wetlands. Ecological Indicators 33: 96–104.
60. Ward, R., P. A. Teasdale, N. Burnside, C. Joyce & K. Sepp, 2014. Recent rates of sedimentation on irregularly flooded Boreal Baltic coastal wetlands: responses to recent changes in sea level. Geomorphology 217: 61–72.
61. Webb, E., D. Friess, K. Krauss, D. Cahoon, G. Guntenspergen & J. Phelps, 2013. A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change 3: 458–465.
62. Weisse, R., D. Bellafiore, M. Menendez, F. Mendez, R. Nicholls, G. Umgiesser & P. Willems, 2014. Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts. Coastal Engineering 87: 4–14.