Projecting the Benefits and Harms of Mammography Using Statistical Models: Proof or Proofiness?

Journal of the National Cancer Institute

Volumn 107, Issue 7, 2015, Pages

  Kramer, Barnett S ^a   Elmore, Joann G ^b  

^a NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CANCER INCIDENCE; EDITORIAL; FEMALE; HUMAN; MAMMOGRAPHY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK BENEFIT ANALYSIS; SCREENING TEST; STATISTICAL MODEL; UNCERTAINTY; ADVERSE EFFECTS; AGING; BREAST NEOPLASMS; CARCINOMA, INTRADUCTAL, NONINFILTRATING; MASS SCREENING; RADIOGRAPHY;

AGING; BREAST NEOPLASMS; CARCINOMA, INTRADUCTAL, NONINFILTRATING; FEMALE; HUMANS; MAMMOGRAPHY; MASS SCREENING; MODELS, STATISTICAL;

EID: 84938495402     PISSN: 00278874     EISSN: 14602105     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djv145     Document Type: Editorial

References (11)

1. Seife C. Proofiness: The Dark Arts of Mathematical Deception. New York, NY: Penguin Group; 2010:295.
2. Attributed to John von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, a.q.b.F.D. Turning points: A meeting with Enrico Fermi. Nature. 2004;427:297.
3. Silver N. Out of sample, out of mind: A formula for failed prediction, in The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't. New York, NY: Penguin Group; 2012:44.
4. van Ravesteyn NT, Stout NK, Schechter CB, et al. Benefits and harms of mammography screening after age 74 years: model estimates of overdiagnosis. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2015;107(7):djv103 doi:10.1093/jnci/djv103.
5. Gotzsche P, Jorgensen K. Screening for breast cancer with mammography (review). Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2013(6):1-81.
6. Box G, Draper N. Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces. New York, NY: John Wilery & Sons; 1987.
7. Silver N. A climate of healthy skepticism, in The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't. New York, NY: Penguin Group; 2012:370-411.
8. Silver N. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't. New York, NY: Penguin Group; 2012:534.
9. Baker S, Prorok P, Kramer B. Lead time and overdiagnosis. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2014;106(12).
10. Zahl P-H, Jorgensen K, Gotzsche P. Lead-time models should not be used to estimate overdiagnosis in cancer screening. J Gen Intern Med. 2014;29(9):1283- 1286.
11. Zahl P-H, Jorgensen K, Gotzsche P. Overestimated lead times in cancer screeninghas led to substantial underestimation of overdiagnosis. Br J Cancer. 2013;109:2014-2019.