Successional dynamics in Neotropical forests are as uncertain as they are predictable

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 112, Issue 26, 2015, Pages 8013-8018

  Norden, Natalia ^a,b   Angarita, Héctor A ^b   Bongers, Frans ^c   Martínez Ramos, Miguel ^d   Cerda, Iñigo Granzow De La ^e   Van Breugel, Michiel ^f,g   Lebrija Trejos, Edwin ^g,h   Meave, Jorge A ⁱ   Vandermeer, John ^j   Williamson, G Bruce ^k   Finegan, Bryan ^l   Mesquita, Rita ^m   Chazdon, Robin L ⁿ  

^a Fundación Cedrela   (Colombia)

^b PONTIFICIA UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA   (Colombia)

^c WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^d INSTITUTO DE INVESTIGACIONES EN ECOSISTEMAS Y SUSTENTABILIDAD   (Mexico)

^e UNIVERSITAT AUTÒNOMA DE BARCELONA   (Spain)

^f NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE   (Singapore)

^g SMITHSONIAN TROPICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Panama)

^h UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA   (United States)

ⁱ UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO   (Mexico)

^j UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^k LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^l CATIE   (Costa Rica)

^m INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE PESQUISAS DA AMAZÔNIA   (Brazil)

ⁿ UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

Dynamical models; Predictability; Succession; Tropical secondary forests; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BRAZIL; CONTROLLED STUDY; COSTA RICA; ECOSYSTEM REGENERATION; FOREST DYNAMICS; FOREST STRUCTURE; LAND USE; LANDSCAPE; MEXICO; NEOTROPICS; NICARAGUA; PASTURE; PIONEER SPECIES; PRIORITY JOURNAL; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; TROPICAL RAIN FOREST; ECOSYSTEM; FOREST; MARKOV CHAIN; TROPIC CLIMATE; UNCERTAINTY;

ECOSYSTEM; FORESTS; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; TROPICAL CLIMATE; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84937913368     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1500403112     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Clements FE (1916) Plant Succession: An Analysis of the Development of Vegetation (Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC).
2. Gleason HA (1926) The individualistic concept of the plant association. Bull Torrey Bot Club 53(1):7-26.
3. Hubbell SP (2001) The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography (Princeton Univ Press, Princeton).
4. Ricklefs RE (2012) Naturalists, natural history, and the nature of biological diversity. Am Nat 179(4):423-435.
5. Adler PB, Hillerislambers J, Levine JM (2007) A niche for neutrality. Ecol Lett 10(2):95-104.
6. Chave J (2004) Neutral theory and community ecology. Ecol Lett 7(3):241-253.
7. Chazdon RL (2008) Chance and determinism in tropical forest succession. Tropical Forest Community Ecology, eds Carson W, Schnitzer S (Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford), pp 384-408.
8. FAO (2012) State of the World's Forests (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome).
9. Finegan B (1996) Pattern and process in neotropical secondary rain forests: The first 100 years of succession. Trends Ecol Evol 11(3):119-124.
10. Rees M, Condit R, Crawley M, Pacala S, Tilman D (2001) Long-term studies of vegetation dynamics. Science 293(5530):650-655.
11. Guariguata M, Pinard A (1998) Ecological knowledge of regeneration from seed in neotropical forest trees: Implications for natural forest management. For Ecol Manage 112(1):87-99.
12. Chazdon R (2003) Tropical forest recovery: Legacies of human impact and natural disturbances. Perspect Plant Ecol 6(1,2):51-71.
13. Johnson EA, Miyanishi K (2008) Testing the assumptions of chronosequences in succession. Ecol Lett 11(5):419-431.
14. Chazdon RL, et al. (2007) Rates of change in tree communities of secondary Neotropical forests following major disturbances. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 362(1478):273-289.
15. Feldpausch TR, Prates-Clark CDC, Fernandes EC, Riha SJ (2007) Secondary forest growth deviation from chronosequence predictions in central Amazonia. Glob Change Biol 13(5):967-979.
16. Lebrija-Trejos E, Pérez-García EA, Meave JA, Bongers F, Poorter L (2010) Functional traits and environmental filtering drive community assembly in a species-rich tropical system. Ecology 91(2):386-398.
17. van Breugel M, Martínez-Ramos M, Bongers F (2006) Community dynamics during early secondary succession in Mexican tropical rain forests. J Trop Ecol 22(6):663-674.
18. Vandermeer J, et al. (2004) Multiple basins of attraction in a tropical forest: Evidence for nonequilibrium community structure. Ecology 85(2):575-579.
19. Denslow J (1995) Disturbance and diversity in tropical rain forests: The density effect. Ecol Appl 5(4):962-968.
20. Anderson KJ (2007) Temporal patterns in rates of community change during succession. Am Nat 169(6):780-793.
21. Levin SA (1998) Ecosystems and the biosphere as complex adaptive systems. Ecosystems (N Y) 1(5):431-436.
22. Chazdon R, Arroyo JP (2013) Tropical forests as complex adaptive systems. Managing World Forests as Complex Adaptive Systems in the Face of Global Change, eds Messier C, Puettman KJ, Coates KD (Routledge, New York), pp 35-59.
23. Filotas E, Parrott L, Burton PJ, Chazdon RL (2014) Viewing forests through the lens of complex systems science. Ecosphere 5(1):1-23.
24. Horn HS (1975) Markovian properties of forest succession. Evolution and Ecology of Communities, eds Cody LM, Diamond J (Harvard Univ Press, Cambridge, MA), pp 196-211.
25. Pacala SW, et al. (1996) Forest models defined by field measurements: Estimation, error analysis and dynamics. Ecol Monogr 66(1):1-43.
26. Lasky JR, et al. (2014) The relationship between tree biodiversity and biomass dynamics changes with tropical forest succession. Ecol Lett 17(9):1158-1167.
27. Mora F, et al. (2015) Testing chronosequences through dynamic approaches: Time and site effects on tropical dry forest succession. Biotropica 47(1):38-48.
28. Clark JS (2005) Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians. Ecol Lett 8(1):2-14.
29. Swenson NG, et al. (2012) Temporal turnover in the composition of tropical tree communities: Functional determinism and phylogenetic stochasticity. Ecology 93(3):490-499.
30. Lohbeck M, et al. (2012) Functional diversity changes during tropical forest succession. Persp Plant Ecol 14(2):89-96.
31. Williamson GB, Bentos TV, Longworth JB, Mesquita R (2014) Convergence and divergence in alternative successional pathways in Central Amazonia. Plant Ecol Div 7(1,2):1-8.
32. Reyer CPO, et al. (2015) Forest resilience and tipping points at different spatio-temporal scales: Approaches and challenges. J Ecol 103(1):5-15.
33. Clark JS, et al. (2007) Resolving the biodiversity paradox. Ecol Lett 10(8):647-659, discussion 659-662.
34. Gilroy JJ, et al. (2014) Cheap carbon and biodiversity co-benefits from forest regeneration in a hotspot of endemism. Nat Clim Chang 4(6):503-507.
35. Friedrich R, et al. (2000) Extracting model equations from experimental data. Phys Lett A 271(3):217-222.
36. Mitchell M (1998) An Introduction to Genetic Algorithms (MIT, Cambridge, MA).
37. Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I - A discussion of principles. J Hydrol (Amst) 10(3):282-290.
38. Hwang W-H, He F (2011) Estimating abundance from presence/absence maps. Methods Ecol Evol 2(5):550-559.
39. Mesquita R, Ickes K, Ganade G, Williamson G (2001) Alternative successional pathways in the Amazon Basin. J Ecol 89(4):528-537.
40. R Core Team (2014) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna) Version 3.1.3. Available at www.R-project.org/.