Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States

Climatic Change

Volumn 131, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 83-95

  Mills, David ^a   Schwartz, Joel ^b   Lee, Mihye ^b   Sarofim, Marcus ^c   Jones, Russell ^a   Lawson, Megan ^d   Duckworth, Michael ^a   Deck, Leland ^c  

^a ABT ASSOCIATES   (United States)

^b HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^c U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY   (United States)

^d Headwaters Economics   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; GREENHOUSE GASES; HEALTH RISKS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; EXTREME TEMPERATURES; GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG); METROPOLITAN AREA; MITIGATION POLICIES; POTENTIAL BENEFITS; POTENTIAL HEALTH RISKS; SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 84933672330     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1154-8     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Anderson BG, Bell ML (2009) Weather-related mortality: how heat, cold and heat waves affect mortality in the United States. Epidemiol 20(2):205–213
2. Anderson BG, Bell ML (2011) Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 US communities. Environ Health Perspect 119(2):210–218
3. Basu R, Samet JM (2002) Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 24(2):190–202
4. Bierwagen BG, Theobald DM, Pyke CR, Choate A, Groth P, Thomas JV, Morefield P (2010) National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107(49):20887–20892
5. CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) (2009) Extreme heat: a prevention guide to promote your personal health and safety. http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/heat_guide.asp. Accessed 3 Feb 2011
6. CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) (2011) Climate and health program. http://www.cdc.gov/climatechange/. Accessed 9 Mar 2011
7. CLIMsystems (2010) SimCLIM software. CLIMsystems, Ltd., Hamilton
8. Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Novicoff WM, Michaels PJ (2002) Decadal changes in heat-related human mortality in the Eastern US. Clim Res 22:175–184
9. Ebi KL, Mills D (2013) Winter mortality in a warming climate: a reassessment. WIREs Clim Chang 4(3):203–212
10. Ebi KL, Balbus J, Kinney PL, Lipp E, Mills D, O’Neill MS, Wilson M (2008) Effects of global change on human health. In: Gamble JL, Ebi KL, Sussman FG, Wilbanks TJ (eds) Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, pp 2-1–2-78
11. Gosling SN, Lowe JA, McGregor GR (2009) Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities part 2: climate model evaluation, sensitivity analysis, and estimation of future impacts. Int J Biometeorol 53:31–51
12. Greene S, Kalkstein LS, Mills DM, Samenow J (2011) An examination of climate change on extreme heat events and climate-mortality relationships in large U.S. cities. Weather Clim Soc 3(4):281–292
13. Huang C, Barnett AG, Wang X, Vaneckova P, Fitzgerald G, Tong S (2011) Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: a systematic review. Environ Health Perspect 119(12):1681–1690
14. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2011) Summary for policymakers. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken D, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) Intergovernmental panel on climate change special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
15. Kalkstein LS, Greene JS (1997) An evaluation of climate/mortality relationships in large U.S. cities and the possible impacts of climate change. Environ Health Perspect 105:84–93
16. Karl TR, Melillo JM, Peterson TC (eds) (2009) Global climate change impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, New York
17. Kinney PL, O’Neill MS, Bell ML, Schwartz J (2008) Approaches for estimating effects of climate change on heat-related deaths: challenges and opportunities. Environ Sci Pol 11:87–96
18. Kinney PL, Pascal M, Vautard R, Laaid K (2012) Winter mortality in a changing climate: will it go down. Bull Epidemiol Hebd 12–13:148–151
19. Knowlton K, Lynn B, Goldberg RA, Rosenzweig C, Hogrefe C, Rosenthal JK, Kinney PL (2007) Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region. Am J Public Health 97(11):2028–2034
20. McGeehin MA, Mirabelli M (2001) The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 109(Supplement 2):185–189
21. Medina-Ramon M, Schwartz J (2007) Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: a study of acclimatization and effect modification in 50 US cities. Occup Environ Med 64:827–833
22. Meehl GA, Tebaldi C, Walton G, Easterling D, McDaniel L (2009) Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. Geophys Res Lett 36, L23701
23. Mercer JB (2003) Cold–an underrated risk factor for health. Environ Res 92:8–13
24. Monier E, Gao X, Scott J, Sokolov A, Schlosser A (2013) A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change. Clim Chang (submitted, this issue)
25. Paltsev S, Monier E, Scott J, Sokolov A, Reilly J (2013) Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment. Clim Chang (submitted, this issue)
26. Sheridan SC, Allen MJ, Lee CC, Kalkstein LS (2012) Future heat vulnerability in California, part II: projecting future heat–related mortality. Clim Chang. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0437-1
27. U.S. EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) (2006) Excessive heat events guidebook. EPA 430-B-06-005. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington
28. U.S. EPA (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) (2012) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). http://www.epa.gov/air/benmap/. Accessed 13 Apr 2012
29. Voorhees AS, Fann N, Fulcher C, Dolwick P, Hubbell B, Bierwagen B, Morefield P (2011) Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: a proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP. Environ Sci Technol 45:1450–1457
30. Waldhoff S, Martinich J, Sarofim M, DeAngelo B, McFarland J, Jantarasami L, Shouse K, Crimmins A, Li J (2013) Overview of the special issue: a multi-model framework to achieve consistent evaluation of climate change impacts in the United States. Clim Chang (submitted, this issue)
31. Warrick R (2009) The evolution of the SimCLIM modeling environment: from CLIMPACTS to SimCLIM: development of an integrated assessment model system. In: Knight CG, Jäger J (eds) Integrated regional assessment of global climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 280–311
32. Zanobetti A, O’Neill MS, Grolund CJ, Schwartz JD (2012) Summer temperature variability and long-term survival among elderly people with chronic disease. Proc Natl Acad Sci. doi:10.1073/pnas.113070109, Online 9 April 2012