메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 18, Issue 7, 2015, Pages 597-611

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

Author keywords

Dynamics; Ecosystems; Environmental change; Forecasting; Futures; Prediction; Scenarios

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; BODY SIZE; COMMUNITY STRUCTURE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; FORECASTING METHOD; PHYLOGENETICS; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION STRUCTURE; PREDICTION; RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84931562756     PISSN: 1461023X     EISSN: 14610248     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/ele.12443     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (222)

References (121)
  • 1
    • 63849105364 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the future of species diversity: macroecological theory, climate change, and direct tests of alternative forecasting methods
    • Algar, A.C., Kharouba, H.M., Young, E.R. & Kerr, J.T. (2009). Predicting the future of species diversity: macroecological theory, climate change, and direct tests of alternative forecasting methods. Ecography, 32, 22-33.
    • (2009) Ecography , vol.32 , pp. 22-33
    • Algar, A.C.1    Kharouba, H.M.2    Young, E.R.3    Kerr, J.T.4
  • 2
    • 70449729453 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical forest carbon assessment: integrating satellite and airborne mapping approaches
    • Asner, G.P. (2009). Tropical forest carbon assessment: integrating satellite and airborne mapping approaches. Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 034009.
    • (2009) Environ. Res. Lett. , vol.4 , pp. 034009
    • Asner, G.P.1
  • 3
    • 84902656850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How to predict community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity
    • Aufderheide, H., Rudolf, L., Gross, T. & Lafferty, K.D. (2013). How to predict community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity. Proc. Biol. Sci., 280, 20132355.
    • (2013) Proc. Biol. Sci. , vol.280 , pp. 20132355
    • Aufderheide, H.1    Rudolf, L.2    Gross, T.3    Lafferty, K.D.4
  • 5
    • 35348923149 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can niche-based distribution models outperform spatial interpolation?
    • Bahn, V. & McGill, B.J. (2007). Can niche-based distribution models outperform spatial interpolation? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 16, 733-742.
    • (2007) Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. , vol.16 , pp. 733-742
    • Bahn, V.1    McGill, B.J.2
  • 6
    • 84874319269 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing the predictive performance of distribution models
    • Bahn, V. & McGill, B.J. (2013). Testing the predictive performance of distribution models. Oikos, 122, 321-331.
    • (2013) Oikos , vol.122 , pp. 321-331
    • Bahn, V.1    McGill, B.J.2
  • 8
    • 84865434810 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The limits to prediction in ecological systems
    • Beckage, B., Gross, L.J. & Kauffman, S. (2011). The limits to prediction in ecological systems. Ecosphere, 2, art125.
    • (2011) Ecosphere , vol.2
    • Beckage, B.1    Gross, L.J.2    Kauffman, S.3
  • 9
    • 77954802422 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reduction of adaptive genetic diversity radically alters eco-evolutionary community dynamics
    • Becks, L., Ellner, S.P., Jones, L.E. & Hairston, N.G. (2010). Reduction of adaptive genetic diversity radically alters eco-evolutionary community dynamics. Ecol. Lett., 13, 989-997.
    • (2010) Ecol. Lett. , vol.13 , pp. 989-997
    • Becks, L.1    Ellner, S.P.2    Jones, L.E.3    Hairston, N.G.4
  • 13
    • 0000712133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability: a way to characterize complexity
    • Boffetta, G., Cencini, M., Falcioni, M. & Vulpiani, A. (2002). Predictability: a way to characterize complexity. Phys. Rep., 356, 367-474.
    • (2002) Phys. Rep. , vol.356 , pp. 367-474
    • Boffetta, G.1    Cencini, M.2    Falcioni, M.3    Vulpiani, A.4
  • 14
    • 0034704928 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology
    • Brook, B.W., O'Grady, J.J., Chapman, P., Burgman, M., Akçakaya, H.R. & Frankham, R. (2000). Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature, 404, 385-387.
    • (2000) Nature , vol.404 , pp. 385-387
    • Brook, B.W.1    O'Grady, J.J.2    Chapman, P.3    Burgman, M.4    Akçakaya, H.R.5    Frankham, R.6
  • 15
    • 0028160224 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature
    • Cane, M.A., Eshel, G. & Buckland, R.W. (1994). Forecasting Zimbabwean maize yield using eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature. Nature, 370, 204-205.
    • (1994) Nature , vol.370 , pp. 204-205
    • Cane, M.A.1    Eshel, G.2    Buckland, R.W.3
  • 16
    • 0020898118 scopus 로고
    • Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea Sitchensis
    • Cannell, M.G.R. & Smith, R.I. (1983). Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea Sitchensis. J. Appl. Ecol., 20, 951-963.
    • (1983) J. Appl. Ecol. , vol.20 , pp. 951-963
    • Cannell, M.G.R.1    Smith, R.I.2
  • 17
    • 84929103597 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Experimental evidence for strong stabilizing forces at high functional diversity of microbial communities
    • in press
    • Carrara, F., Giometto, A., Seymour, M., Rinaldo, A. & Altermatt, F. (2015). Experimental evidence for strong stabilizing forces at high functional diversity of microbial communities. Ecology, doi: 10.1890/14-1324.1, in press.
    • (2015) Ecology
    • Carrara, F.1    Giometto, A.2    Seymour, M.3    Rinaldo, A.4    Altermatt, F.5
  • 18
    • 33749860704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Phylogenetic structure of floridian plant communities depends on taxonomic and spatial scale
    • Cavender-Bares, J., Keen, A. & Miles, B. (2006). Phylogenetic structure of floridian plant communities depends on taxonomic and spatial scale. Ecology, 87, S109-S122.
    • (2006) Ecology , vol.87 , pp. S109-S122
    • Cavender-Bares, J.1    Keen, A.2    Miles, B.3
  • 19
    • 84939264416 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Validation and calibration of probabilistic predictions in ecology
    • Chivers, C., Leung, B. & Yan, N.D. (2014). Validation and calibration of probabilistic predictions in ecology. Methods Ecol. Evol., 5, 1023-1032.
    • (2014) Methods Ecol. Evol. , vol.5 , pp. 1023-1032
    • Chivers, C.1    Leung, B.2    Yan, N.D.3
  • 22
    • 70449380219 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions
    • Coreau, A., Pinay, G., Thompson, J.D., Cheptou, P.-O. & Mermet, L. (2009). The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions. Ecol. Lett., 12, 1277-1286.
    • (2009) Ecol. Lett. , vol.12 , pp. 1277-1286
    • Coreau, A.1    Pinay, G.2    Thompson, J.D.3    Cheptou, P.-O.4    Mermet, L.5
  • 27
    • 0001630039 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Relevance of community structure in assessing indeterminacy of ecological predictions
    • Dambacher, J., Li, H. & Rossignol, P. (2002). Relevance of community structure in assessing indeterminacy of ecological predictions. Ecology, 83, 1372-1385.
    • (2002) Ecology , vol.83 , pp. 1372-1385
    • Dambacher, J.1    Li, H.2    Rossignol, P.3
  • 28
    • 0037371763 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Qualitative predictions in model ecosystems
    • Dambacher, J., Li, H. & Rossignol, P. (2003). Qualitative predictions in model ecosystems. Ecol. Model., 161, 79-93.
    • (2003) Ecol. Model. , vol.161 , pp. 79-93
    • Dambacher, J.1    Li, H.2    Rossignol, P.3
  • 30
    • 79955492019 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling plant ranges over 75 years of climate change in California, USA: temporal transferability and species traits
    • Dobrowski, S. & Thorne, J. (2011). Modeling plant ranges over 75 years of climate change in California, USA: temporal transferability and species traits. Ecol. Monogr., 81, 241-257.
    • (2011) Ecol. Monogr. , vol.81 , pp. 241-257
    • Dobrowski, S.1    Thorne, J.2
  • 31
    • 84899982569 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chaos and unpredictability in evolution
    • Doebeli, M. & Ispolatov, I. (2014). Chaos and unpredictability in evolution. Evolution, 68, 1365-1373.
    • (2014) Evolution , vol.68 , pp. 1365-1373
    • Doebeli, M.1    Ispolatov, I.2
  • 32
    • 0028973866 scopus 로고
    • Chaos in a noisy world: new methods and evidence from time-series analysis
    • Ellner, S. & Turchin, P. (1995). Chaos in a noisy world: new methods and evidence from time-series analysis. Am. Nat., 145, 343-375.
    • (1995) Am. Nat. , vol.145 , pp. 343-375
    • Ellner, S.1    Turchin, P.2
  • 33
    • 47249139490 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Commentary on Holmes (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable
    • Ellner, S.P. & Holmes, E.E. (2008). Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable. Ecol. Lett., 11, 1-5.
    • (2008) Ecol. Lett. , vol.11 , pp. 1-5
    • Ellner, S.P.1    Holmes, E.E.2
  • 34
    • 79955948274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does rapid evolution matter? Measuring the rate of contemporary evolution and its impacts on ecological dynamics
    • Ellner, S.P., Geber, M. & Hairston, N.G. (2011). Does rapid evolution matter? Measuring the rate of contemporary evolution and its impacts on ecological dynamics. Ecol. Lett., 14, 603-614.
    • (2011) Ecol. Lett. , vol.14 , pp. 603-614
    • Ellner, S.P.1    Geber, M.2    Hairston, N.G.3
  • 35
    • 82755165260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling ecological systems in a changing world
    • Evans, M.R. (2012). Modelling ecological systems in a changing world. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci., 367, 181-190.
    • (2012) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. , vol.367 , pp. 181-190
    • Evans, M.R.1
  • 38
    • 84911941884 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Phenotypic plasticity influences the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a predator-prey system
    • Fischer, B.B., Kwiatkowski, M., Ackermann, M., Krismer, J., Roffler, S., Suter, M.J.F. et al. (2014). Phenotypic plasticity influences the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a predator-prey system. Ecology, 95, 3080-3092.
    • (2014) Ecology , vol.95 , pp. 3080-3092
    • Fischer, B.B.1    Kwiatkowski, M.2    Ackermann, M.3    Krismer, J.4    Roffler, S.5    Suter, M.J.F.6
  • 39
    • 33745617402 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diversity and dispersal interactively affect predictability of ecosystem function
    • France, K.E. & Duffy, J.E. (2006). Diversity and dispersal interactively affect predictability of ecosystem function. Nature, 441, 1139-1143.
    • (2006) Nature , vol.441 , pp. 1139-1143
    • France, K.E.1    Duffy, J.E.2
  • 40
    • 0034680809 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Crossing the Hopf bifurcation in a live predator-prey system
    • Fussmann, G., Ellner, S., Shertzer, K. & Hairston, J.N. (2000). Crossing the Hopf bifurcation in a live predator-prey system. Science, 290, 1358-1360.
    • (2000) Science , vol.290 , pp. 1358-1360
    • Fussmann, G.1    Ellner, S.2    Shertzer, K.3    Hairston, J.N.4
  • 42
    • 79960368090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assimilation of multiple data sets with the ensemble Kalman filter to improve forecasts of forest carbon dynamics
    • Gao, C., Wand, H., Weng, E., Lakshmivarahan, S., Zhang, Y. & Luo, Y. (2011). Assimilation of multiple data sets with the ensemble Kalman filter to improve forecasts of forest carbon dynamics. Ecol. Appl., 21, 1461-1473.
    • (2011) Ecol. Appl. , vol.21 , pp. 1461-1473
    • Gao, C.1    Wand, H.2    Weng, E.3    Lakshmivarahan, S.4    Zhang, Y.5    Luo, Y.6
  • 43
    • 84912572338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model-free quantification of time-series predictability
    • Garland, J., James, R. & Bradley, E. (2014). Model-free quantification of time-series predictability. Phys. Rev. E, 90, 052910.
    • (2014) Phys. Rev. E , vol.90 , pp. 052910
    • Garland, J.1    James, R.2    Bradley, E.3
  • 44
    • 84903758612 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions
    • Gilbert, B., Tunney, T.D., McCann, K.S., DeLong, J.P., Vasseur, D., Savage, V. et al. (2014). A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions. Ecol. Lett., 17, 902-914.
    • (2014) Ecol. Lett. , vol.17 , pp. 902-914
    • Gilbert, B.1    Tunney, T.D.2    McCann, K.S.3    DeLong, J.P.4    Vasseur, D.5    Savage, V.6
  • 45
    • 84897943937 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Open questions: are the dynamics of ecological communities predictable?
    • Godfray, H.C.J. & May, R.M. (2014). Open questions: are the dynamics of ecological communities predictable? BMC Biol., 12, 22.
    • (2014) BMC Biol. , vol.12 , pp. 22
    • Godfray, H.C.J.1    May, R.M.2
  • 46
    • 33645099593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models
    • Gotelli, N.J. & Ellison, A.M. (2006a). Forecasting extinction risk with nonstationary matrix models. Ecol. Appl., 16, 51-61.
    • (2006) Ecol. Appl. , vol.16 , pp. 51-61
    • Gotelli, N.J.1    Ellison, A.M.2
  • 47
    • 33750259694 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Food-web models predict species abundances in response to habitat change
    • Gotelli, N.J. & Ellison, A.M. (2006b). Food-web models predict species abundances in response to habitat change. PLoS Biol., 4, e324.
    • (2006) PLoS Biol. , vol.4 , pp. e324
    • Gotelli, N.J.1    Ellison, A.M.2
  • 48
    • 84887181705 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inferring food web structure from predator-prey body size relationships
    • Gravel, D., Poisot, T., Albouy, C., Velez, L. & Mouillot, D. (2013). Inferring food web structure from predator-prey body size relationships. Methods Ecol. Evol., 4, 1083-1090.
    • (2013) Methods Ecol. Evol. , vol.4 , pp. 1083-1090
    • Gravel, D.1    Poisot, T.2    Albouy, C.3    Velez, L.4    Mouillot, D.5
  • 49
    • 84982298260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Leaps of faith: how implicit assumptions compromise the utility of ecosystem models for decision-making
    • Gregr, E.J. & Chan, K.M.A. (2014). Leaps of faith: how implicit assumptions compromise the utility of ecosystem models for decision-making. Bioscience, 65, 43-54.
    • (2014) Bioscience , vol.65 , pp. 43-54
    • Gregr, E.J.1    Chan, K.M.A.2
  • 50
    • 82755174155 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pattern-oriented modelling: a "multi-scope" for predictive systems ecology
    • Grimm, V. & Railsback, S.F. (2012). Pattern-oriented modelling: a "multi-scope" for predictive systems ecology. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci., 367, 298-310.
    • (2012) Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. , vol.367 , pp. 298-310
    • Grimm, V.1    Railsback, S.F.2
  • 51
    • 24344493920 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models
    • Guisan, A. & Thuiller, W. (2005). Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol. Lett., 8, 993-1009.
    • (2005) Ecol. Lett. , vol.8 , pp. 993-1009
    • Guisan, A.1    Thuiller, W.2
  • 53
    • 25144509849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rapid evolution and the convergence of ecological and evolutionary time
    • Hairston, N.G., Ellner, S.P., Geber, M., Yoshida, T. & Fox, J. (2005). Rapid evolution and the convergence of ecological and evolutionary time. Ecol. Lett., 8, 1114-1127.
    • (2005) Ecol. Lett. , vol.8 , pp. 1114-1127
    • Hairston, N.G.1    Ellner, S.P.2    Geber, M.3    Yoshida, T.4    Fox, J.5
  • 54
    • 77950178256 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate - population model
    • Hare, J.A., Alexander, M.A., Fogarty, M.J., Williams, E.H. & Scott, J.D. (2010). Forecasting the dynamics of a coastal fishery species using a coupled climate - population model. Ecol. Appl., 20, 452-464.
    • (2010) Ecol. Appl. , vol.20 , pp. 452-464
    • Hare, J.A.1    Alexander, M.A.2    Fogarty, M.J.3    Williams, E.H.4    Scott, J.D.5
  • 55
    • 84900384373 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model
    • Harfoot, M.B.J., Newbold, T., Tittensor, D.P., Emmott, S., Hutton, J., Lyutsarev, V. et al. (2014). Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model. PLoS Biol., 12, e1001841.
    • (2014) PLoS Biol. , vol.12 , pp. e1001841
    • Harfoot, M.B.J.1    Newbold, T.2    Tittensor, D.P.3    Emmott, S.4    Hutton, J.5    Lyutsarev, V.6
  • 56
    • 84885768828 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does model-free forecasting really outperform the true model?
    • Hartig, F. & Dormann, C.F. (2013). Does model-free forecasting really outperform the true model?. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, E3975.
    • (2013) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.110 , pp. E3975
    • Hartig, F.1    Dormann, C.F.2
  • 57
    • 0242661860 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coping with uncertainty in ecological advice: lessons from fisheries
    • Harwood, J. & Stokes, K. (2003). Coping with uncertainty in ecological advice: lessons from fisheries. Trends Ecol. Evol., 18, 617-622.
    • (2003) Trends Ecol. Evol. , vol.18 , pp. 617-622
    • Harwood, J.1    Stokes, K.2
  • 58
    • 84938954982 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparison of remote sensing and plant trait-based modelling to predict ecosystem services in subalpine grasslands
    • Homolová, L., Schaepman, M., Lamarque, P., Clevers, J.G.P.W., de Bello, F., Thuiller, W. et al. (2013). Comparison of remote sensing and plant trait-based modelling to predict ecosystem services in subalpine grasslands. Ecosphere, 5, 1-29.
    • (2013) Ecosphere , vol.5 , pp. 1-29
    • Homolová, L.1    Schaepman, M.2    Lamarque, P.3    Clevers, J.G.P.W.4    de Bello, F.5    Thuiller, W.6
  • 59
    • 84883789784 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries
    • Hudson, L. & Reuman, D. (2013). A cure for the plague of parameters: constraining models of complex population dynamics with allometries. Proc. Biol. Sci., 280, 20131901.
    • (2013) Proc. Biol. Sci. , vol.280 , pp. 20131901
    • Hudson, L.1    Reuman, D.2
  • 60
    • 84919865419 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts
    • Hudson, L.N., Newbold, T., Contu, S., Hill, S.L., Lysenko, I., De Palma, A. et al. (2014). The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts. Ecol. Evol., 4, 4701-4735.
    • (2014) Ecol. Evol. , vol.4 , pp. 4701-4735
    • Hudson, L.N.1    Newbold, T.2    Contu, S.3    Hill, S.L.4    Lysenko, I.5    De Palma, A.6
  • 62
    • 35948934686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality
    • Komatsu, E., Fukushima, T. & Harasawa, H. (2007). A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality. Ecol. Model., 209, 351-366.
    • (2007) Ecol. Model. , vol.209 , pp. 351-366
    • Komatsu, E.1    Fukushima, T.2    Harasawa, H.3
  • 63
    • 41449083053 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing and predicting biodiversity in a floodplain ecosystem: assimilation of net primary production derived from imaging spectrometer data into a dynamic vegetation model
    • Kooistra, L., Wamelink, W., Schaepman-Strub, G., Schaepman, M., van Dobben, H., Aduaka, U. et al. (2008). Assessing and predicting biodiversity in a floodplain ecosystem: assimilation of net primary production derived from imaging spectrometer data into a dynamic vegetation model. Remote Sens. Environ., 112, 2118-2130.
    • (2008) Remote Sens. Environ. , vol.112 , pp. 2118-2130
    • Kooistra, L.1    Wamelink, W.2    Schaepman-Strub, G.3    Schaepman, M.4    van Dobben, H.5    Aduaka, U.6
  • 64
    • 0037327010 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting biological invasions with international trade
    • Levine, J.M. & Antonio, C.M.D. (2003). Forecasting biological invasions with international trade. Conserv. Biol., 17, 322-326.
    • (2003) Conserv. Biol. , vol.17 , pp. 322-326
    • Levine, J.M.1    Antonio, C.M.D.2
  • 65
    • 85045014889 scopus 로고
    • The strategy of model building in population biology
    • Levins, R. (1966). The strategy of model building in population biology. Am. Sci., 54, 421-431.
    • (1966) Am. Sci. , vol.54 , pp. 421-431
    • Levins, R.1
  • 67
    • 0043130217 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Meta-ecosystems: a theoretical framework for a spatial ecosystem ecology
    • Loreau, M., Mouquet, N. & Holt, R.D. (2003). Meta-ecosystems: a theoretical framework for a spatial ecosystem ecology. Ecol. Lett., 6, 673-679.
    • (2003) Ecol. Lett. , vol.6 , pp. 673-679
    • Loreau, M.1    Mouquet, N.2    Holt, R.D.3
  • 68
    • 0001036009 scopus 로고
    • A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model
    • Lorenz, E. (1965). A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model. Tellus, 17, 321-333.
    • (1965) Tellus , vol.17 , pp. 321-333
    • Lorenz, E.1
  • 69
    • 84927962256 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle
    • Lou, Y., Keenan, T.F. & Smith, M.J. (2014). Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Global Change Biol., 21, 1737-1751.
    • (2014) Global Change Biol. , vol.21 , pp. 1737-1751
    • Lou, Y.1    Keenan, T.F.2    Smith, M.J.3
  • 70
  • 72
    • 0034636310 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The diversity-stability debate
    • McCann, K.S. (2000). The diversity-stability debate. Nature, 405, 228-233.
    • (2000) Nature , vol.405 , pp. 228-233
    • McCann, K.S.1
  • 73
    • 0030718540 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biodiversity regulates ecosystem predictability
    • McGrady-Steed, J. & Harris, P. (1997). Biodiversity regulates ecosystem predictability. Nature, 390, 162-165.
    • (1997) Nature , vol.390 , pp. 162-165
    • McGrady-Steed, J.1    Harris, P.2
  • 74
    • 84931573960 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecologie prédictive and changement planétaire
    • Mouquet, N., Lagadeuc, Y. & Loreau, M. (2012). Ecologie prédictive and changement planétaire. Les Cah. Prospect. Rep., www.cnrs.fr/inee/outils/docs/prospectiveavignon2012.pdf, 9-44.
    • (2012) Les Cah. Prospect. Rep. , pp. 9-44
    • Mouquet, N.1    Lagadeuc, Y.2    Loreau, M.3
  • 75
    • 84897114796 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scale dependency in the functional form of the distance decay relationship
    • Nekola, J.C. & McGill, B.J. (2014). Scale dependency in the functional form of the distance decay relationship. Ecography, 37, 309-320.
    • (2014) Ecography , vol.37 , pp. 309-320
    • Nekola, J.C.1    McGill, B.J.2
  • 76
    • 0033404204 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The distance decay of similarity in biogeography and ecology
    • Nekola, J. & White, P. (1999). The distance decay of similarity in biogeography and ecology. J. Biogeogr., 26, 867-878.
    • (1999) J. Biogeogr. , vol.26 , pp. 867-878
    • Nekola, J.1    White, P.2
  • 77
    • 79955667825 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity
    • Novak, M., Wootton, J.T., Doak, D.F., Emmerson, M., Estes, J.A. & Tinker, M.T. (2011). Predicting community responses to perturbations in the face of imperfect knowledge and network complexity. Ecology, 92, 836-846.
    • (2011) Ecology , vol.92 , pp. 836-846
    • Novak, M.1    Wootton, J.T.2    Doak, D.F.3    Emmerson, M.4    Estes, J.A.5    Tinker, M.T.6
  • 78
    • 0014656798 scopus 로고
    • Meteorological factors and forecasts of helminthic disease
    • Ollerenshaw, C.B. & Smith, L.P. (1969). Meteorological factors and forecasts of helminthic disease. Adv. Parasitol., 7, 283-323.
    • (1969) Adv. Parasitol. , vol.7 , pp. 283-323
    • Ollerenshaw, C.B.1    Smith, L.P.2
  • 79
    • 84907398339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model human adaptation to climate change
    • Palmer, P.I. & Smith, M.J. (2014). Model human adaptation to climate change. Nature, 512, 365-366.
    • (2014) Nature , vol.512 , pp. 365-366
    • Palmer, P.I.1    Smith, M.J.2
  • 80
    • 84880340748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting novel trophic interactions in a non-native world
    • Pearse, I.S. & Altermatt, F. (2013). Predicting novel trophic interactions in a non-native world. Ecol. Lett., 16, 1088-1094.
    • (2013) Ecol. Lett. , vol.16 , pp. 1088-1094
    • Pearse, I.S.1    Altermatt, F.2
  • 82
    • 84875503881 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data
    • Perretti, C.T., Munch, S.B. & Sugihara, G. (2013a). Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 5253-5257.
    • (2013) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.110 , pp. 5253-5257
    • Perretti, C.T.1    Munch, S.B.2    Sugihara, G.3
  • 85
    • 0242535102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and the management of multistate ecosystems: an apparently rational route to collapse
    • Peterson, G.D., Carpenter, S.R. & Brock, W.A. (2003). Uncertainty and the management of multistate ecosystems: an apparently rational route to collapse. Ecology, 84, 1403-1411.
    • (2003) Ecology , vol.84 , pp. 1403-1411
    • Peterson, G.D.1    Carpenter, S.R.2    Brock, W.A.3
  • 86
    • 84906061903 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy
    • Pottier, J., Malenovský, Z., Psomas, A., Homolová, L., Schaepman, M.E., Choler, P. et al. (2014). Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy. Biol. Lett., 10, 20140347.
    • (2014) Biol. Lett. , vol.10 , pp. 20140347
    • Pottier, J.1    Malenovský, Z.2    Psomas, A.3    Homolová, L.4    Schaepman, M.E.5    Choler, P.6
  • 87
    • 45849136029 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictive models of forest dynamics
    • Purves, D. & Pacala, S. (2008). Predictive models of forest dynamics. Science, 320, 1452-1453.
    • (2008) Science , vol.320 , pp. 1452-1453
    • Purves, D.1    Pacala, S.2
  • 89
    • 84931587585 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts. arXiv: 1408.4812.
    • Raftery, A.E. (2014). Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts. arXiv: 1408.4812.
    • (2014)
    • Raftery, A.E.1
  • 90
    • 0036557496 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology
    • Regan, H., Colyvan, M. & Burgman, M. (2002). A taxonomy and treatment of uncertainty for ecology and conservation biology. Ecol. Appl., 12, 618-628.
    • (2002) Ecol. Appl. , vol.12 , pp. 618-628
    • Regan, H.1    Colyvan, M.2    Burgman, M.3
  • 91
    • 67650704136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Niche coevolution in consumer-resource communities
    • Ripa, J., Storlind, L., Lundberg, P. & Brown, J. (2009). Niche coevolution in consumer-resource communities. Evol. Ecol. Res., 11, 305-323.
    • (2009) Evol. Ecol. Res. , vol.11 , pp. 305-323
    • Ripa, J.1    Storlind, L.2    Lundberg, P.3    Brown, J.4
  • 95
    • 84875977645 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Observing changing ecological diversity in the Anthropocene
    • Schimel, D.S., Asner, G.P. & Moorcroft, P. (2013). Observing changing ecological diversity in the Anthropocene. Front. Ecol. Environ., 11, 129-137.
    • (2013) Front. Ecol. Environ. , vol.11 , pp. 129-137
    • Schimel, D.S.1    Asner, G.P.2    Moorcroft, P.3
  • 96
    • 84923872939 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change
    • Schindler, D.E. & Hilborn, R. (2015). Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change. Science, 347, 953-954.
    • (2015) Science , vol.347 , pp. 953-954
    • Schindler, D.E.1    Hilborn, R.2
  • 98
    • 84870859794 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza
    • Shaman, J. & Karspeck, A. (2012). Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 20425-20430.
    • (2012) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.109 , pp. 20425-20430
    • Shaman, J.1    Karspeck, A.2
  • 99
    • 0039205997 scopus 로고
    • Numerical weather prediction
    • Shuman, F. (1978). Numerical weather prediction. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 59, 5-17.
    • (1978) Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.59 , pp. 5-17
    • Shuman, F.1
  • 100
    • 0036129946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction
    • Simmons, A. & Hollingsworth, A. (2002). Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 647-677.
    • (2002) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , vol.128 , pp. 647-677
    • Simmons, A.1    Hollingsworth, A.2
  • 101
    • 80052630269 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Visualizing uncertainty about the future
    • Spiegelhalter, D., Pearson, M. & Short, I. (2011). Visualizing uncertainty about the future. Science, 333, 1393-1400.
    • (2011) Science , vol.333 , pp. 1393-1400
    • Spiegelhalter, D.1    Pearson, M.2    Short, I.3
  • 102
    • 84916482881 scopus 로고
    • New description of box for holding thermometers
    • Stevenson, T.C.E. (1864). New description of box for holding thermometers. J. Scottish Meteorol. Soc., 1, 122.
    • (1864) J. Scottish Meteorol. Soc. , vol.1 , pp. 122
    • Stevenson, T.C.E.1
  • 103
    • 84858699227 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time
    • Stigall, A.L. (2012). Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time. J. Biogeogr., 39, 772-781.
    • (2012) J. Biogeogr. , vol.39 , pp. 772-781
    • Stigall, A.L.1
  • 104
    • 84922554553 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making predictions in a changing world: the Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology
    • Stillman, R.A., Railsback, S.F., Giske, J., Berger, U.T.A. & Grimm, V. (2015). Making predictions in a changing world: the Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology. Bioscience, 65, 140-150.
    • (2015) Bioscience , vol.65 , pp. 140-150
    • Stillman, R.A.1    Railsback, S.F.2    Giske, J.3    Berger, U.T.A.4    Grimm, V.5
  • 106
    • 33745713662 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods
    • Sutherland, W.J. (2006). Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods. J. Appl. Ecol., 43, 599-616.
    • (2006) J. Appl. Ecol. , vol.43 , pp. 599-616
    • Sutherland, W.J.1
  • 108
    • 33748454041 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Shaping global environmental decisions using socio-ecological models
    • Tallis, H.M. & Kareiva, P. (2006). Shaping global environmental decisions using socio-ecological models. Trends Ecol. Evol., 21, 562-568.
    • (2006) Trends Ecol. Evol. , vol.21 , pp. 562-568
    • Tallis, H.M.1    Kareiva, P.2
  • 111
    • 0000151238 scopus 로고
    • The competitive structure of communities: an experimental approach with protozoa
    • Vandermeer, J. (1969). The competitive structure of communities: an experimental approach with protozoa. Ecology, 50, 362-371.
    • (1969) Ecology , vol.50 , pp. 362-371
    • Vandermeer, J.1
  • 112
    • 84903648183 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events
    • Vincenzi, S. (2014). Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events. J. R. Soc. Interface, 11, 20140441.
    • (2014) J. R. Soc. Interface , vol.11 , pp. 20140441
    • Vincenzi, S.1
  • 113
    • 84900401670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Complexity is costly: a meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting
    • Ward, E.J., Holmes, E.E., Thorson, J.T. & Collen, B. (2014). Complexity is costly: a meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting. Oikos, 123, 652-661.
    • (2014) Oikos , vol.123 , pp. 652-661
    • Ward, E.J.1    Holmes, E.E.2    Thorson, J.T.3    Collen, B.4
  • 114
    • 84863997670 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simple rules describe bottom-up and top-down control in food webs with alternative energy pathways
    • Wollrab, S., Diehl, S. & De Roos, A.M. (2012). Simple rules describe bottom-up and top-down control in food webs with alternative energy pathways. Ecol. Lett., 15, 935-946.
    • (2012) Ecol. Lett. , vol.15 , pp. 935-946
    • Wollrab, S.1    Diehl, S.2    De Roos, A.M.3
  • 115
    • 0036775150 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Indirect effects in complex ecosystems: recent progress and future challenges
    • Wootton, J.T. (2002). Indirect effects in complex ecosystems: recent progress and future challenges. J. Sea Res., 48, 157-172.
    • (2002) J. Sea Res. , vol.48 , pp. 157-172
    • Wootton, J.T.1
  • 116
    • 3843089367 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Markov chain models predict the consequences of experimental extinctions
    • Wootton, J.T. (2004). Markov chain models predict the consequences of experimental extinctions. Ecol. Lett., 7, 653-660.
    • (2004) Ecol. Lett. , vol.7 , pp. 653-660
    • Wootton, J.T.1
  • 117
    • 0033574013 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Biodiversity and ecosystem productivity in a fluctuating environment: the insurance hypothesis
    • Yachi, S. & Loreau, M. (1999). Biodiversity and ecosystem productivity in a fluctuating environment: the insurance hypothesis. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 96, 1463-1468.
    • (1999) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA , vol.96 , pp. 1463-1468
    • Yachi, S.1    Loreau, M.2
  • 119
    • 0024265688 scopus 로고
    • The indeterminacy of ecological interactions as perceived through perturbation experiments
    • Yodzis, P. (1988). The indeterminacy of ecological interactions as perceived through perturbation experiments. Ecology, 69, 508-515.
    • (1988) Ecology , vol.69 , pp. 508-515
    • Yodzis, P.1
  • 120
    • 0043094308 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rapid evolution drives ecological dynamics in a predator-prey system
    • Yoshida, T., Jones, L.E., Ellner, S.P., Fussmann, G.F. & Hairston, N.G. (2003). Rapid evolution drives ecological dynamics in a predator-prey system. Nature, 424, 303-306.
    • (2003) Nature , vol.424 , pp. 303-306
    • Yoshida, T.1    Jones, L.E.2    Ellner, S.P.3    Fussmann, G.F.4    Hairston, N.G.5
  • 121
    • 0000748798 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability
    • Ziehmann, C., Smith, L.A. & Kurths, J. (2000). Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability. Phys. Lett. A, 271, 237-251.
    • (2000) Phys. Lett. A , vol.271 , pp. 237-251
    • Ziehmann, C.1    Smith, L.A.2    Kurths, J.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.