Heat-related cardiovascular mortality risk in Cyprus: A case-crossover study using a distributed lag non-linear model

Environmental Health: A Global Access Science Source

Volumn 14, Issue 1, 2015, Pages

  Lubczyńska, Małgorzata J ^a   Christophi, Costas A ^b,c   Lelieveld, Jos ^a,d  

^a CYPRUS INSTITUTE   (Cyprus)

^b CYPRUS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Cyprus)

^c HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^d MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR CHEMISTRY   (Germany)

Author keywords

Cardiovascular mortality; Case crossover; Climate change; Cyprus; Distributed lags; Temperature

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CLIMATE CHANGE; HEAT SHOCK; MORTALITY RISK; NONLINEARITY; SPATIAL VARIATION;

ADULT; AGED; AIR TEMPERATURE; CARDIOVASCULAR MORTALITY; CEREBROVASCULAR DISEASE; CHILD; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONFERENCE PAPER; CYPRUS; DISEASE EXACERBATION; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; HEART DISEASE; HEAT; HIGH TEMPERATURE; HUMAN; INFANT; ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE; LAG NON LINEAR MODEL; MIDDLE EAST; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; SOUTHERN EUROPE; STATISTICAL MODEL; ADOLESCENT; ADVERSE EFFECTS; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; CROSSOVER PROCEDURE; EPIDEMIOLOGY; FEMALE; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; NEWBORN; NONLINEAR SYSTEM; PRESCHOOL CHILD; RISK; SEASON; VERY ELDERLY; YOUNG ADULT;

CYPRUS; MEDITERRANEAN REGION;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; CROSS-OVER STUDIES; CYPRUS; FEMALE; HOT TEMPERATURE; HUMANS; INFANT; INFANT, NEWBORN; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; NONLINEAR DYNAMICS; RISK; SEASONS; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84930685261     PISSN: None     EISSN: 1476069X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/s12940-015-0025-8     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (34)

1. Gabriel KMA, Endlicher WR. Urban and rural mortality rates during heat waves in Berlin and Brandenburg. Germany Environ Pollut. 2011;159(8-9):2044-50.
2. Gosling SN, Lowe JA, McGregor GR, Pelling M, Malamud BD. Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: A critical review of the literature. Clim Change. 2009;92(3-4):299-341.
3. McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S. Climate change and human health: Present and future risks. Lancet. 2006;367(9513):859-69.
4. Sheridan SC, Kalkstein AJ, Kalkstein LS. Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975-2004. Nat Hazards. 2009;50(1):145-60.
5. IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, et al. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2012; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-19.
6. Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Chenoweth J, El Maayar M, Giannakopoulos C, et al. Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Clim Change. 2012;114(3):667-87.
7. Lelieveld J, Hadjinicolaou P, Kostopoulou E, Giannakopoulos C, Pozzer A, Tanarhte M, et al. Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century. Reg Environ Change. 2014;14(5):1937-49.
8. Oudin Åström D, Forsberg B, Edvinsson S, Rocklöv J. Acute fatal effects of short-lasting extreme temperatures in Stockholm, Sweden: evidence across a century of change. Epidemiology. 2013;24(6):820-9.
9. Coates L, Haynes K, O'Brien J, McAneney J, Dimer de Oliveira F. Exploring 167 years of vulnerability: an examination of extreme heat events in Australia 1844-2010. Environ Sci Pol. 2014;42:33-44.
10. Petkova EP, Gasparrini A, Kinney PL. Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century. Epidemiology. 2014;25(4):554-60.
11. Schifano P, Leone M, De Sario M, de'Donato F, Bargagli AM, D'Ippoliti D, et al. Changes in the effects of heat on mortality among the elderly from 1998-2010: results from a multicenter time series study in Italy. Environ Health. 2012;11(1):58.
12. Zachariadis T, Hadjinicolaou P. The effect of climate change on electricity needs - a case study from Mediterranean Europe. Energy. 2014;76:899-910.
13. Oudin Åström D, Bertil F, Joacim R. Heat wave impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly population: a review of recent studies. Maturitas. 2011;69(2):99-105.
14. Basu R, Samet JM. Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev. 2002;24(2):190-202.
15. Bouchama A, Dehbi M, Mohamed G, Matthies F, Shoukri M, Menne B. Prognostic factors in heat wave-related deaths: a meta-analysis. Arch Intern Med. 2007;167(20):2170-6.
16. Fischer EM, Schär C. Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. Nat Geosci. 2010;3(6):398-403.
17. Hajat S, O'Connor M, Kosatsky T. Health effects of hot weather: from awareness of risk factors to effective health protection. Lancet. 2010;375(9717):856-63.
18. El-Zein A, Tewtel-Salem M, Nehme G. A time-series analysis of mortality and air temperature in Greater Beirut. Sci Total Environ. 2004;330(1-3):71-80.
19. Nastos M. The effect of air temperature and human thermal indices on mortality in Athens, Greece. Theor Appl Climatol. 2012;108(3-4):591-9.
20. McMichael AJ, Wilkinson P, Kovats RS, Pattenden S, Hajat S, Armstrong B, et al. International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: The 'ISOTHURM' project. Int J Epidemiol. 2008;37(5):1121-31.
21. CyStat. Census of Population 2011. Cyprus Statistical Service. http://www.mof.gov.cy/mof/cystat/statistics.nsf/populationcondition-22main-en/populationcondition-22main-en?OpenForm&sub=2&sel=2. Accessed: 14 February 2015.
22. th revision, edition 2010.
23. MoH (Ministry of Health). Health Monitoring Unit. http://www.moh.gov.cy. Database publicly not available. Received: 22 February 2013.
24. Cui J, Sinoway LI. Cardiovascular responses to heat stress in chronic heart failure. Curr Heart Fail Rep. 2014;11:139-45.
25. Crandall CG, Gonzalez-Alonso J. Cardiovascular function in the heat-stressed human. Acta Physiol. 2010;199(4):407-23.
26. MoA (Ministry of Agriculture). Department of Meteorology. http://www.moa.gov.cy/moa/ms/ms.nsf/DMLcyclimate-en/DMLcyclimate-en?OpenDocument. Accessed: 15 May 2014.
27. Guo Y, Barnett AG, Pan X, Yu W, Tong S. The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: A case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Environ Health Perspect. 2011;119(12):1719-25.
28. Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward MG. Distributed lag non-linear models. Stat Med. 2010;29(21):2224-34.
29. Levy D, Lumley T, Sheppard L, Kaufman J, Checkoway H. Referent selection in case-crossover analyses of acute health effects of air pollution. Epidemiology. 2001;12(2):186-92.
30. Gasparrini A. Distributed lag linear and non-linear models in R: The package dlnm. J Stat Softw. 2011;43(8):2-20.
31. Braga ALF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J. The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 U.S. cities. Environ Health Perspect. 2002;110(9):859-63.
32. Grize L, Huss A, Thommen O, Schindler C, Braun-Fahrländer C. Heat wave 2003 and mortality in Switzerland. Swiss Med Wkly. 2005;135(13-14):200-5.
33. Havenith G. Temperature regulation, heat balance and climatic stress. Extreme weather Events and Public Health Responses. 2005. p. 69-80.
34. Zoumides C, Bruggeman A, Zachariadis T, Pashiardis S. Quantifying the poorly known role of groundwater in agriculture: the case of Cyprus. Water Resour Manag. 2013;27(7):2501-14.