Prediction in complex systems: The case of the international trade network

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

Volumn 436, Issue , 2015, Pages 188-199

  Vidmer, Alexandre ^a   Zeng, An ^a,b   Medo, Matúš ^a   Zhang, Yi Cheng ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF FRIBOURG   (Switzerland)

^b BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Complex networks; Economic system; Link prediction; Node similarity; Recommender system

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; INTERNATIONAL TRADE; RECOMMENDER SYSTEMS;

BASELINE PREDICTIONS; COMPLEXITY SCIENCE; ECONOMIC SYSTEM; LINK PREDICTION; MASS DIFFUSION; NETWORK EVOLUTION; NODE SIMILARITIES;

COMPLEX NETWORKS;

EID: 84930005792     PISSN: 03784371     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.05.057     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. D. Snyder, and E.L. Kick Structural position in the world system and economic growth, 1955-1970: A multiple-network analysis of transnational interactions Am. J. Sociol. 1979 1096 1126
2. M.A. Serrano, and M. Boguñá Topology of the world trade web Phys. Rev. E 68 2003 015101
3. J. Tinbergen An analysis of world trade flows Shaping the World Economy 1962
4. G. Fagiolo The international-trade network: gravity equations and topological properties J. Econ. Interact. Coord. 5 2010 1 25
5. K. Bhattacharya, G. Mukherjee, J. Saramäki, K. Kaski, and S.S. Manna The international trade network: weighted network analysis and modelling J. Stat. Mech. 2008 2008 P02002
6. C.A. Hidalgo, B. Klinger, A.-L. Barabási, and R. Hausmann The product space conditions the development of nations Science 317 2007 482 487
7. R. Hausmann, J. Hwang, and D. Rodrik What you export matters J. Econ. Growth 12 2007 1 25
8. M. Cristelli, A. Tacchella, and L. Pietronero An overview of the new frontiers of economic complexity Econophysics of Agent-Based Models 2014 Springer 147 159
9. D. Hummels, and P.J. Klenow The variety and quality of a nation's exports Amer. Econ. Rev. 2005 704 723
10. J.E. Rauch Networks versus markets in international trade J. Int. Econ. 48 1999 7 35
11. D. Liben-Nowell, and J. Kleinberg The link-prediction problem for social networks J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. Technol. 58 2007 1019 1031
12. L. Lü, and T. Zhou Link prediction in complex networks: A survey Physica A 390 2011 1150 1170
13. A. Tacchella, M. Cristelli, G. Caldarelli, A. Gabrielli, and L. Pietronero A new metrics for countries' fitness and products' complexity Sci. Rep. 2 2012 723
14. P. Resnick, and H.R. Varian Recommender systems Commun. ACM 40 1997 56 58
15. G. Adomavicius, and A. Tuzhilin Toward the next generation of recommender systems: A survey of the state-of-the-art and possible extensions IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng. 17 2005 734 749
16. X. Zhu, H. Tian, Z. Hu, P. Zhang, T. Zhou, Consistence beats causality in recommender systems, 2015. arXiv Preprint arXiv:1501.03577.
17. Y. Koren Collaborative filtering with temporal dynamics Commun. ACM 53 2010 89 97
18. T. Zhou, Z. Kuscsik, J.-G. Liu, M. Medo, J.R. Wakeling, and Y.-C. Zhang Solving the apparent diversity-accuracy dilemma of recommender systems Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 107 2010 4511 4515
19. A.-L. Barabási, and R. Albert Emergence of scaling in random networks Science 286 1999 509 512
20. C.A. Hidalgo, and R. Hausmann The building blocks of economic complexity Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 106 2009 10570 10575
21. R. Hausmann, and C.A. Hidalgo The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity 2014 MIT Press
22. M. Cristelli, A. Gabrielli, A. Tacchella, G. Caldarelli, and L. Pietronero Measuring the intangibles: A metrics for the economic complexity of countries and products PLoS One 8 2013 e70726
23. R.C. Feenstra, R.E. Lipsey, H. Deng, A.C. Ma, H. Mo, World trade flows: 1962-2000, NBER Working Paper, 2005, p. 11040.
24. B. Balassa Trade liberalisation and "revealed" comparative advantage Manch. School 33 1965 99 123
25. R.R. Sarukkai Link prediction and path analysis using Markov chains Comput. Netw. 33 2000 377 386
26. A. Zaccaria, M. Cristelli, A. Tacchella, and L. Pietronero How the taxonomy of products drives the economic development of countries PLoS One 9 2014 e113770
27. E. Pugliese, A. Zaccaria, L. Pietronero, On the convergence of the fitness-complexity algorithm, 2014. arXiv Preprint arXiv:1410.0249.
28. Y.-C. Zhang, M. Blattner, and Y.-K. Yu Heat conduction process on community networks as a recommendation model Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 2007 154301
29. T. Zhou, J. Ren, M. Medo, and Y.-C. Zhang Bipartite network projection and personal recommendation Phys. Rev. E 76 2007 046115
30. L. Lü, M. Medo, C.H. Yeung, Y.-C. Zhang, Z.-K. Zhang, and T. Zhou Recommender systems Phys. Rep. 519 2012 1 49
31. M. Tribus Thermostatics and Thermodynamics 1961 Center for Advanced Engineering Study, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
32. R.W. Hamming Error detecting and error correcting codes Bell Syst. Tech. J. 29 1950 147 160
33. M.E. Newman Scientific collaboration networks. I. Network construction and fundamental results Phys. Rev. E 64 2001 016131
34. H. Jeong, B. Tombor, R. Albert, Z.N. Oltvai, and A.-L. Barabási The large-scale organization of metabolic networks Nature 407 2000 651 654
35. M.E. Newman The structure of scientific collaboration networks Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 98 2001 404 409
36. J. Bennett, and S. Lanning The Netflix prize Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007 ACM 35
37. A. Zeng, C.H. Yeung, M.-S. Shang, and Y.-C. Zhang The reinforcing influence of recommendations on global diversification Europhys. Lett. 97 2012 18005
38. Y.S. Abu-Mostafa, M. Magdon-Ismail, and H.-T. Lin Learning from Data 2012 AMLBook
39. A. Zeng, A. Vidmer, M. Medo, and Y.-C. Zhang Information filtering via hybridization of similarity preferential diffusion processes Europhys. Lett. 105 2014 58002
40. R.M. Bell, and Y. Koren Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newslett. 9 2007 75 79
41. Y. Koren, R. Bell, and C. Volinsky Matrix factorization techniques for recommender systems IEEE Comput. 42 2009 30 37
42. M. Jahrer, A. Töscher, and R. Legenstein Combining predictions for accurate recommender systems Proceedings of the 16th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 2010 ACM 693 702
43. B. Sarwar, G. Karypis, J. Konstan, and J. Riedl Item-based collaborative filtering recommendation algorithms Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on World Wide Web 2001 ACM 285 295
44. M. Medo, Y.-C. Zhang, and T. Zhou Adaptive model for recommendation of news Europhys. Lett. 88 2009 38005
45. T. Zhou, M. Medo, G. Cimini, Z.-K. Zhang, and Y.-C. Zhang Emergence of scale-free leadership structure in social recommender systems PLoS One 6 2011 e20648