Identifying robust response options to manage environmental change using an Ecosystem Approach: A stress-testing case study for the UK

Environmental Science and Policy

Volumn 52, Issue , 2015, Pages 74-88

  Brown, Iain ^a   Berry, Pam ^b   Everard, Mark ^c   Firbank, Les ^d   Harrison, Paula ^b   Lundy, Lian ^e   Quine, Chris ^f   Rowan, John ^g   Wade, Rebecca ^h   Watts, Kevin ^f  

^a SCOTTISH CROP RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST OF ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^e MIDDLESEX UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^f FOREST RESEARCH   (United Kingdom)

^g UNIVERSITY OF DUNDEE   (United Kingdom)

^h UNIVERSITY OF ABERTAY DUNDEE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Cross scale responses; Decision making; Ecosystem services; Integrated assessment; Integrated responses; Policy appraisal; Scenario analysis

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; ARTICLE; CASE STUDY; CLIMATE CHANGE; DECISION MAKING; ECOSYSTEM; ECOSYSTEM RESILIENCE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT; GOVERNMENT; HUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT; SOCIOECONOMICS; STRESS TESTING METHOD; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84929583241     PISSN: 14629011     EISSN: 18736416     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.05.005     Document Type: Article

References (92)

1. Adelle C., Jordan A., Turnpenny J. Proceeding in parallel or drifting apart? A systematic review of policy appraisal research and practice. Environ. Plan. C 2012, 30:400-414.
2. Amer M., Daim T.U., Jetter A. A review of scenario planning. Futures 2013, 46:23-40.
3. Atkins J.P., Gregory A., Burdon D., Elliott M. Managing the marine environment: is the DPSIR framework holistic enough?. Syst. Res. Behav. Sci. 2011, 28:497-508.
4. Bankes S. Exploratory modelling for policy analysis. Oper. Res. 1993, 41:435-449.
5. Berkes F. Cross-scale institutional linkages: perspectives from the bottom up. The Drama of the Commons 2002, 293-319. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA. E. Ostrom, T. Dietz, N. Dolšak, P.C. Stern, S. Stonich, E.U. Weber (Eds.).
6. Berkhout F., Hertin J., Jordan A. Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as 'learning machines'. Glob. Environ. Change: Hum. Policy Dimens. 2002, 12:83-95.
7. Berkhout F., van der Hurk B., Bessenbinder J., de Boer J., Bregman B., van Drunen M. Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Reg. Environ. Chang. 2014, 14:879-893.
8. Biggs R., Schlüter M., Biggs D., Bohensky E.L., Burnsilver S., Cundill G., Dakos V., Daw T.M., Evans L.S., Kotschy K., Leitch A.M., Meek C., Quinlan A., Raudsepp-Hearne C., Robards M.D., Schoon M.L., Schultz L., West P.C. Toward principles for enhancing the resilience of ecosystem services. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2012, 37:421-448.
9. Bonn A., Reed M., Bain C., Evans C., Joosten H., Bain C., Farmer J., Emmer I., Couwenberg J., Moxey A., Artz R., Tanneberger F., von Unger M., Smyth M.-A., Birnie D. Investing in nature: developing ecosystem markets for peatland restoration. Ecosyst. Serv. 2014, 9:54-65.
10. Brown I., Castellazzi M. Scenarios analysis for regional decision making on sustainable multifunctional landscapes. Reg. Environ. Change 2014, 14:1357-1371.
11. Brown I., Everard M. A working typology of response options to manage environmental change and their scope for complementarity using an ecosystem approach. Environ. Sci. Policy 2015, (in press).
12. Burkhard B., de Groot R., Costanza R., Seppelt R., Jørgensen S.E., Potschin M. Solutions for sustaining natural capital and ecosystem services. Ecol. Indic. 2012, 21:1-6.
13. Burton R., Kuczera C., Schwarz G. Exploring farmers' cultural resistance to voluntary agri-environmental schemes. Sociol. Rural. 2008, 48:16-37.
14. Carpenter S.R., Bennett E.M., Peterson G.D. Scenarios for ecosystem services: an overview. Ecol. Soc. 2006, 11:29. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/.
15. Carpenter S.R., Mooney H.A., Agard J., Capistrano D., Defries R.S., Díaz S., Dietz T., Duraiappah A.K., Oteng-Yeboah A., Pereira H.M., Perrings C., Reid W.V., Sarukhan J., Scholes R.J., Whyte A. Science for managing ecosystem services: beyond the millennium ecosystem assessment. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2009, 106:1305-1312.
16. Cash D.W., Clark W.C., Alcock F., Dickson N.M., Eckley N., Guston D.H., Jaeger J., Mitchell R.B. Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2003, 100:8086-8091.
17. CBD Principles of the ecosystem approach. 7th Conference of Parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity 2004, http://www.cbd.int/ecosystem/principles.shtml [accessed 13.10.14].
18. Chan K.M.A., Satterfield T., Goldstein J. Rethinking ecosystem services to better address and navigate cultural values. Ecol. Econ. 2012, 74:8-18.
19. Chee Y.E. An ecological perspective on the valuation of ecosystem services. Biol. Conserv. 2004, 120:549-565.
20. Chermack T. Improving decision-making with scenario planning. Futures 2004, 36:295-309.
21. Chermack T.J., van der Merwe L. The role of constructivist learning in scenario planning. Futures 2003, 35:445-460.
22. Coetzee B.W.T., Gaston K.J., Chown S.L. Local scale comparisons of biodiversity as a test for global protected area ecological performance: a meta-analysis. PLOS ONE 2014, 9:e105824. 10.1371/journal.pone.0105824.
23. Connick S., Innes J.E. Outcomes of collaborative water policy making: applying complexity thinking to evaluation. J. Environ. Plan. Manag. 2003, 46:177-197.
24. Davies A. Power, politics and networks: shaping partnerships for sustainable communities. Area 2002, 34:190-203.
25. Dessai S., Hulme M. Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: a case study on water resources management in the East of England. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2007, 17:59-72.
26. Dufour S., Piegay H. From the myth of a lost paradise to targeted river restoration: forget natural references and focus on human benefits. River Res. Appl. 2009, 25:568-581.
27. Engel S., Pagiola S., Wunder S. Designing payments for environmental services in theory and practice: an overview of the issues. Ecol. Econ. 2008, 65:663-674.
28. Esteves L.S. Is managed realignment a sustainable long-term coastal management approach?. J. Coast. Res. 2013, 65:933-938.
29. Farrell A., Van Deveer S.D., Jager J. Environmental assessments: four under-appreciated elements of design. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2001, 11:311-333.
30. Fazey I., Gamarra J.G.P., Fischer J., Reed M.S., Stringer L.C., Christie M. Adaptation strategies for reducing vulnerability to future environmental change. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2010, 8:414-422.
31. Fehr E., Rockenbach B. Detrimental effects of sanctions on human altruism. Nature 2003, 42:137-140.
32. Fisher B., Turner K., Zylstra M., Brouwer R., Groot R.D., Farber S., Ferrano P., Green R., Hadley D., Harlow J., Jefferiss P., Kirby C., Morling P., Mowatt S., Naidoo R., Paavola J., Strassburg B., Yu D., Balmford A. Ecosystem services and economic theory: integration for policy-relevant research. Ecol. Appl. 2008, 18:2050-2067.
33. Fiske S.T. Social Beings: A Core Motives Approach to Social Psychology 2004, Wiley, New York.
34. Gaston K.J., Jackson S.F., Nagy A., Cantú-Salazar L., Johnson M. Protected areas in Europe: principle and practice. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 2008, 1134:97-119.
35. Gigerenzer G., Selten R. Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox 2002, MIT Press.
36. Gómez-Baggethun E., Barton D.N. Classifying and valuing ecosystem services for urban planning. Ecol. Econ. 2013, 86:235-245.
37. Haines-Young R., Paterson J., Potschin M., Wilson A., Kass G. The UK NEA Scenarios: Development of Storylines and Analysis of Outcomes. UK National Ecosystem Assessment: Technical Report 2011, 1195-1264. UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, (Chapter 25).
38. Hallegatte S. Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2009, 19:240-247.
39. Hannah L. Protected areas and climate change. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 2008, 1134:201-212.
40. Hansen R., Pauleit S. From multifunctionality to multiple ecosystem services? A conceptual framework for multifunctionality in green infrastructure planning for urban areas. Ambio 2014, 43:516-529.
41. Harries C. Correspondence to what? Coherence to what? What is good scenario-based decision making?. Technol. Forecast. Soc. 2003, 70:797-817.
42. Hodder K., Newton A.C., Cantarello E., Perrella L. Does landscape-scale conservation management enhance the provision of ecosystem services?. Int. J. Biodivers. Sci. Ecosyst. Serv. Manag. 2014, 10:71-83.
43. Holling C.S. Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems. Ecosystems 2001, 4:390-405.
44. Holling C.S., Meffe G.K. Command and control and the pathology of natural resource management. Conserv. Biol. 1996, 10:328-337.
45. Howlett M. Why are policy innovations so rare and so often negative? Blame avoidance and problem denial in climate change policy-making. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2014, 29:395-403.
46. Hunt D.V.L., Lombardi D.R., Atkinson S. Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability 2012, 4:740-772.
47. Iacob O., Rowan J.S., Brown, Ellis C. Evaluating wider benefits of natural flood management strategies: an ecosystem-based adaptation perspective. Hydrol Res. 2014, 45:774-787.
48. Kates R.W., Travis W.R., Wilbanks T.J. Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2012, 109(19):7156-7161.
49. Kenter J.O., O'Brien L., Hockley N., Ravenscroft N., Fazey I., Irvine K.N., Reed M.S., Christie M., Brady E., Bryce R., Church A., Cooper N., Davies A., Evely A., Everard M., Fish R., Fisher J.A., Jobstvogt N., Molloy C., Orchard-Webb J., Ranger S., Ryan M., Watson V., Williams S. What are shared and social values of ecosystems?. Ecol. Econ. 2015, 111:86-99.
50. Lawton J.W., Brotherton P.N.M., Brown V.K., Elphick C., Fitter A.H., Forshaw J., Haddow R.W., Hilborne S., Leafe R.N., Mace G.M., Southgate M.P., Sutherland W.A., Tew T.E., Varley J., Wynne G.R. Making Space for Nature: A Review of England's Wildlife Sites and Ecological Network. Report to Defra, London 2010, http://archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/biodiversity/documents/201009space-for-nature.pdf (accessed 11.10.14).
51. Lempert R.J., Collins M.T. Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Anal. 2007, 27:1009-1026.
52. Lejano R., Fernandez F. Norm, network, and commons: the invisible hand of community. Environ. Sci. Policy 2013, 36:73-85.
53. Liberman N., Trope Y. The psychology of transcending the here and now. Science 2008, 322:1201-1205.
54. Lindblom C.E. The science of 'muddling through'. Public Adm. Rev. 1959, 19:79-88.
55. Lindblom C.E. Still muddling, not yet through. Public Adm. Rev. 1979, 39:517-526.
56. Lundy L., Wade R. Integrating sciences to sustain urban ecosystem services. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 2011, 3:653-669.
57. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being. Synthesis Report 2005, MA, Island Press, Washington, DC.
58. Martín-López B., Iniesta-Arandia I., García-Llorente M., Palomo I., Casado-Arzuaga I., Del Amo D., Gómez-Baggethun E., Oteros-Rozas E., Palacios-Agundez I., Willaarts B., González J.A., Santos-Martín F., Onaindia M., López-Santiago C., Montes C. Uncovering ecosystem service bundles through social preferences. PLoS ONE 2012, 7:e38970.
59. McCracken M.E., Woodcock B.A., Lobley M., Pywell R.F., Saratsi E., Swetnam R.D., Mortimer S.R., Harris S.J., Winter M., Hinsley S., Bullock J.M. Social and ecological drivers of success in agri-environment schemes: the roles of farmers and environmental context. J. Appl. Ecol. 2015, 10.1111/1365-2664.12412.
60. McKenney B.A., Kiesecker J.M. Policy development for biodiversity offsets: a review of offset frameworks. Environ. Manag. 2010, 45:165-176.
61. Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Jenkins G.J., Booth B.B.B., Brown C.C., Clark R.T., Collins M., Harris G.R., Kendon E.J., Betts R.A., Brown S.J., Humphrey K.A., McCarthy M.P., McDonald R.E., Stephens A., Wallace C., Warren R., Wilby R., Wood R.A. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections 2009, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
62. Newton A.C., Hodder K., Cantarello E., Perrella L., Robins J., Douglas S., Moody C., Cordingley J., Birch J.C. Cost-benefit analysis of ecological networks assessed through spatial analysis of ecosystem services. J. Appl. Ecol. 2012, 49:571-580.
63. Ostrom E. Collective action and the evolution of social norms. J. Econ. Perspect. 2000, 14:137-158.
64. Pelling M. Adaptation to Climate Change: From Resilience to Transformation 2011, Routledge, London.
65. Polasky S., Carpenter S.R., Folke C., Keeler B. Decision-making under great uncertainty: environmental management in an era of global change. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2011, 26:398-404.
66. Quagliariello M. Stress-Testing the Banking System: Methodologies and Applications 2009, Cambridge University Press.
67. Quine C.P., Bailey S.E., Watts K. Sustainable forest management in a time of ecosystem services frameworks: common ground and consequences. J. Appl. Ecol. 2013, 50:863-867.
68. Pahl-Wostl C., Lebel L., Knieper C., Nikitina E. From applying panaceas to mastering complexity: toward adaptive governance in river basins. Environ. Sci. Policy 2012, 23:24-34.
69. Plieninger T., Dijks S., Oteros-Rozas E., Bieling C. Assessing, mapping, and quantifying cultural ecosystem services at community level. Land Use Policy 2013, 33:118-129.
70. Plummer R., Armitage D. A resilience-based framework for evaluating adaptive co-management: linking ecology, economics and society in a complex world. Ecol. Econ. 2007, 61:62-74.
71. Pope J., Bond A., Morrison-Saunders A., Retief F. Advancing the theory and practice of impact assessment: setting the research agenda. Environ. Impact Assess. Rev. 2013, 41:1-9.
72. Raskin P. World lines: a framework for exploring global pathways. Ecol. Econ. 2008, 65:461-470.
73. Reed M.S., Moxey A., Prager K., Hanley N., Skates J., Evans C., Glenk K., Scarpa R., Thompson K., et al. Improving the link between payments and the provision of ecosystem services in agri-environment schemes in UK peatlands. Ecosyst. Serv. 2014, 9:44-53.
74. Reid C.T. Between priceless and worthless: challenges in using market mechanisms for conserving biodiversity. Transnatl. Environ. Law 2013, 2:217-233.
75. Reid C.T. Conservation covenants. Convey. Prop. Lawyer 2013, 77:176-185.
76. Rodríguez J.P., Beard T.D., Bennett E.M., Cumming G.S., Cork S.J., Agard J., Dobson A., Peterson G.D. Trade-offs across space, time, and ecosystem services. Ecol. Soc. 2006, 11(1):28.
77. Roese N.J. Counterfactual thinking. Psychol. Bull. 1997, 121:133-148.
78. Sarewitz D., Pielke J.R.A. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 2007, 10:5-16.
79. Sattler C., Trampnau S., Schomers S., Meyer C., Matzdorf B. Multi-classification of payments for ecosystem services: how do classification characteristics relate to overall PES success?. Ecosyst. Serv. 2013, 6:31-45.
80. Simon H. Bounded rationality and organizational learning. Org. Sci. 1991, 2:125-134.
81. Smith J.W.N., Kerrison G. Benchmarking of decision-support tools used for tiered sustainable remediation appraisal. Water Air Soil Pollut. 2013, 224:1706.
82. UK NEA The UK National Ecosystem Assessment: Synthesis of the Key Findings 2011, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge.
83. UK NEA The UK National Ecosystem Assessment Follow-on: Synthesis of the Key Findings 2014, UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge.
84. van der Heijden K. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation 1996, John Wiley, Chichester, England.
85. van Drunen M., van't Klooster S., Berkhout F. Bounding the future: the use of scenarios in assessing climate change impacts. Futures 2011, 43:488-496.
86. van Notten P.W.F., Rotmans J., van Asselt M.B.A., Rothman D.S. An updated scenario typology. Futures 2003, 35:423-443.
87. van Vugt M. Averting the tragedy of the commons: using social psychological science to protect the environment. Curr. Dir. Psychol. Sci. 2009, 18:169-173.
88. Volkery A., Ribeiro T., Henrichs T., Hoogeveen Y. Your vision or my model? Lessons from participatory land use scenario development on a European scale. Syst. Pract. Action Res. 2008, 21:459-477.
89. Wilkinson A., Eidinow E. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology. Environ. Res. Lett. 2008, 3. 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045017.
90. Wise R.M., Fazey I., Stafford Smith M., Park S.E., Eakin H.C., Archer Van Garderen E.R.M., Campbell B. Reconceptualising adaptation to climate change as part of pathways of change and response. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2014, 28:325-336.
91. Wynne-Jones S. Carbon blinkers and policy blindness: the difficulties of "growing our woodland in Wales". Land Use Policy 2013, 32:250-260.
92. Young O.R. Effectiveness of international environmental regimes: existing knowledge, cutting-edge themes, and research strategies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 2011, 108:19853-19860.